8-4

[horn01]

For some reason, at least on local radio, the prediction de jure is Texas' ceiling for 2015 is 8-4. I think part of that is local sports writers/analysts not wanting to come off as cheerleaders, and part of it is that it's a safe "managing expectations" kind of prediction. Undersell and over perform, as they say. But really, all this is is predicting that Texas will lose to all ranked opponents.

My reasoning for thinking this is not in fact the ceiling: QBs. That's the whole reason Texas is expected to struggle, right? So let's take a look at notable QBs we'll be facing. Trevon Boykin and...and...well? I guess we can assume Baylor's plug and play QB will be good. OU will have a kid who hasn't played in almost two years and looked bad in the spring game. ND will have a QB who has won a single significant game; ask Sooners how much confidence you should have in a kid for winning a bowl game. Where do we go from here? WVU is starting a new guy. Cal will starting a new guy. KSU plans to start a kid who has never started a game as a QB, at any level. OSU will start a kid coming off of injury. Techs QB took a beating from the Texas D last year. Are any of the rest even worth mentioning. There isn't a whole lot to be afraid of on this schedule. My expectations are higher. And if Texas doesn't at least have a winning record I bet they have a new OC in 2016

 

[HornosaurusRex]

more than 9 = ecstatic
9 = very pleased and confident for the future
8 = content with shooting slightly above par
7 = disappointed, but not shocked
6 = seats are warming up

with respectable play on the o-line and at qb we will be competitive

beat ND to start the season and the sky's the limit, get blown out and this could be a long season.

Hook 'em

 

[Son of Wasatch]

I personally don't see our defense having any drop off in production. The fact that we have so many guys coming back that played a lot of snaps and the familarity with the system tells me we should again have a top 20 defense.

Offense will be much improved because our QB play will improve and our oline will be better. I don't think we can beat Notre Dame, Baylor or TCU, however I'm confident we will do very well against all the other competition. I think we end the regular season 9-3 and win our bowl game.

Thus setting us up for a huge run in 2016.

 

[CoachEmUp64]

Shit is it football season yet?! Just give me a backyard bbq, a couple cold beers, and the Texas game on TV! I'm tired of waiting.

I will be happy with 8 wins, but 9+ is a whole different feeling.

 

[CoachEmUp64]

The Golden Nugget sportsbook recently released its 'Games of the Year' lines, which don't look too favorable for the Texas Longhorns.

The Longhorns face two of the teams with the most games listed by the Golden Nugget, TCU and Baylor. Texas is currently a 21-point underdog to the Horned Frogs and an 18-point underdog to the Bears.

The Longhorns are coming off of losses in 2014 to the reigning Big 12 co-champions where the offense scored a combined 14 points and turned the ball over a combined nine times. Texas has dropped two of its last three games to TCU while Baylor has won four of the last five meetings against the Longhorns.

Texas is also an early 7.5-point underdog to a Notre Dame team the Longhorns open the season with in South Bend on Sept. 5. The Longhorns are listed as 6.5-point underdogs against Oklahoma for the Oct. 10 tilt at the Cotton Bowl, making Texas an underdog to three of the seven opponents responsible for the 6-7 record in the first season for the program under Charlie Strong.

The only game where the sportsbook lists Texas as a favorite is the Oct. 24 home contest against Kansas State. The Longhorns, who suffered a 23-0 loss to the Wildcats on the road last season, are listed as a 2-point favorite.

It's not a surprise to see Texas as an underdog in four of the five games listed. The quarterback battle between Tyrone Swoopesand Jerrod Heard has yet to be decided, there's a need for playmakers on offense to carry the load alongside Johnathan Grayand the defense is counting on upperclassman leadership and playmaking ability from the likes of Duke Thomas, Hassan Ridgewayand Dylan Haines after suffering heavy personnel losses for last year's elite unit.

The Longhorns have a lot of questions entering Strong's second season at the helm. Getting to face the Fighting Irish, Horned Frogs and Sooners within the first six games of the season means Texas will have to find some answers in a hurry.

 

[hookemmike]

I will take the under on 8 wins in the regular season. We replaced North Texas with Rice, BYU with Cal, and UCLA with Notre Dame. So, we could turn a 1-2 record into 2-1 which would put us plus one in non conference compared to last year. Kansas State seems to be the only conference game that we can change the outcome on compared to last year. With Snyder owning us lately, I will leave it at a loss. So, I will go with 7-5.

I see the defense slipping to a point that any improvement on offense will be offset by the defense. I just don't see how we don't slip after we lost Brown, Thompson, Diggs, Hicks, Edmond and Reed. One of my biggest fears this year is WR. We lost Harris and Shipley and the Spring Game showed a major problem in that area.

This year can get ugly quick if Notre Dame blows us out. I don't see a blow out since they start slow. It's going to be a long season in my more expensive season tickets! Thanks Patterson for the beer!

 

[Scholz]

I will take the under on 8 wins in the regular season. We replaced North Texas with Rice, BYU with Cal, and UCLA with Notre Dame. So, we could turn a 1-2 record into 2-1 which would put us plus one in non conference compared to last year. Kansas State seems to be the only conference game that we can change the outcome on compared to last year. With Snyder owning us lately, I will leave it at a loss. So, I will go with 7-5.

I see the defense slipping to a point that any improvement on offense will be offset by the defense. I just don't see how we don't slip after we lost Brown, Thompson, Diggs, Hicks, Edmond and Reed. One of my biggest fears this year is WR. We lost Harris and Shipley and the Spring Game showed a major problem in that area.

This year can get ugly quick if Notre Dame blows us out. I don't see a blow out since they start slow. It's going to be a long season in my more expensive season tickets! Thanks Patterson for the beer!

You aggys aren't smart enough for this sort of thing. Entertaining though.

 

[TexExSpur]

I'm in the 7-5 with 8-4 being the ceiling camp. I'll be extremely disappointed with anything less....

 

[outhereincali]

Obviously qb is the biggest question at UT this year. I don't know if it's been posted on this board but I think youth will have as big an impact on our w/l record this year. I saw that after the Houston Bowl we only had 70 players on scholarship. That's why we signed 31 players this year. 25 of those players are freshman and when you combine that with the redshirt freshman on the team, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that more than half of this year's team will be freshman. You want to think those kids are going to be stars right off the bat but it's not likely. But maybe that and improved qb play can get us to 8/4 this year. Maybe.

The former California horn

 

[TexExSpur]

31 players?

 

[Alex Dunlap]

I'd say most people are along the 6 to 7 win area. O/U in Vegas is 6.5.

 

[horn01]

I reiterate, KSU is starting a QB who has never started a game...At Any Level. If Watson can't coach up a state champion QB to beat a dude who didnt even play QB in highschool we have a problem.

 

[outhereincali]

31 players?

I had to go back and check. It's "only" 29 : )

 

[ut4evr]

Based on what I see, winning half of our games seems likely.

 

[bubba2023]

I reiterate, KSU is starting a QB who has never started a game...At Any Level. If Watson can't coach up a state champion QB to beat a dude who didnt even play QB in highschool we have a problem.

I agree very much. Although there is generally no shame in losing to Bill Snyder, he is a hell of a coach, but outside of TCU and Baylor, we shouldn't be losing to any other Big 12 schools. It doesn't take a loaded team to beat KSU, or an OU program that is a shadow of it's former self.

 

[hookemmike]

I reiterate, KSU is starting a QB who has never started a game...At Any Level. If Watson can't coach up a state champion QB to beat a dude who didnt even play QB in highschool we have a problem.

He runs an offense we have struggled with for years it seems. Last year he averaged 9 a carry against us to end the game.

 

[Scholz]

He runs an offense we have struggled with for years it seems. Last year he averaged 9 a carry against us to end the game.

OK, aggy.

 

[Cotton #12]

Since when has Texas played a really tough team the first game and did they win?Im hoping for a winning record with Texas getting better game by game but may not win them.I have no doubt the players are working hard after the TCU and Arkansas losses as they know where the bar is to win.Go Horns,Shock Em!!!!

 

[horn01]

My fear with ND is that the coaches are going to defer to experience at QB (forgetting that the last experience was 59 yards) and that Heard will be brought in when we are already in the hole. I'm not buying that ND is a world beater. Remember when Trevor Knight beat Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. The kid from ND had a month to prepare, nothing to lose, and was playing against a team whose DC had already taken another job.

 

[MiccoMacey]

Sept. 5: at Notre Dame -L
Sept. 12: RICE - W
Sept. 19: CALIFORNIA - W
Sept. 26: OKLAHOMA STATE - L
Oct. 3: at TCU - L
Oct. 10: vs. Oklahoma - L
BYE
Oct. 24: K-STATE - W
Oct. 31: at Iowa State - W
Nov. 7: KANSAS - W
Nov. 14: at West Virginia - W
BYE
Nov. 26: TEXAS TECH (Thursday Night) - W
Dec. 5: at Baylor - L

I have you guys at 7-5 for the regular season, and 5-4 for the conference. Although I fully expect an upset or two (either way), so I have a +/- of one.

 

[horn01]

Sept. 5: at Notre Dame -L
Sept. 12: RICE - W
Sept. 19: CALIFORNIA - W
Sept. 26: OKLAHOMA STATE - L
Oct. 3: at TCU - L
Oct. 10: vs. Oklahoma - L
BYE
Oct. 24: K-STATE - W
Oct. 31: at Iowa State - W
Nov. 7: KANSAS - W
Nov. 14: at West Virginia - W
BYE
Nov. 26: TEXAS TECH (Thursday Night) - W
Dec. 5: at Baylor - L

I have you guys at 7-5 for the regular season, and 5-4 for the conference. Although I fully expect an upset or two (either way), so I have a +/- of one.

That may very well be the record, I just don't see many teams Texas shouldn't be on the field with. Texas was in both the BU and OU games last year with a putrid offense. To say 8 wins is the ceiling is just low in my book. I'd say seven wins should be the floor and none of the remainder are sure losses.

 

[MiccoMacey]

That may very well be the record, I just don't see many teams Texas shouldn't be on the field with. Texas was in both the BU and OU games last year with a putrid offense. To say 8 wins is the ceiling is just low in my book. I'd say seven wins should be the floor and none of the remainder are sure losses.

Agreed. I don't think it impossible for Texas to have a better record with better QB play. Outside of Baylor or TCU, both road games, and possibly the ND game at home, Texas could be/should be in every game.

I still think OU wins by two TDs, but I thought the same thing in 2013. So who knows.

 

[TexExSpur]

There is nothing sure about OU and you have them as a 2 TD favorite? Nice blinders! Lol

That game is a Pick'em until we see these two do something.

 

[MiccoMacey]

There is nothing sure about OU and you have them as a 2 TD favorite? Nice blinders! Lol

That game is a Pick'em until we see these two do something.

I guess every game is a Pick'em until we see any team do something.

It's not so much blinders as I just think they're a better team. I have OU going 10-2, losing to Baylor and TCU (which, yes, means I have them at 9-0 at some point in the season). Could I be wrong? Sure...especially if Tennessee has improved more than I think.

But Texas was 6-6 last year, and I don't see any great news coming out of Longhorn media saying your major problem (QB play) has greatly improved. OU's QB is at a minimum the same guy that led us to 8-5, and has a Sugar Bowl win over a very good Alabama team. Plus, Lincoln Riley is supposedly 5,342 times better than Josh Heuple in game management. Our biggest weakness is going to be defense, but I think our offense will be better, enough so that it'll bail us out of a game or two that our defense tries to lose for us.

 

[TexExSpur]

Texas was 6-6 last year and completely out played OU whom escaped Dallas. OU is in a complete overhaul as well and may very well be a modern titanic.

Bob is trying to save his job, we saw the same stuff in Austin. OU is a shell of what they once were.

 

[outhereincali]

I guess every game is a Pick'em until we see any team do something.

It's not so much blinders as I just think they're a better team. I have OU going 10-2, losing to Baylor and TCU (which, yes, means I have them at 9-0 at some point in the season). Could I be wrong? Sure...especially if Tennessee has improved more than I think.

But Texas was 6-6 last year, and I don't see any great news coming out of Longhorn media saying your major problem (QB play) has greatly improved. OU's QB is at a minimum the same guy that led us to 8-5, and has a Sugar Bowl win over a very good Alabama team. Plus, Lincoln Riley is supposedly 5,342 times better than Josh Heuple in game management. Our biggest weakness is going to be defense, but I think our offense will be better, enough so that it'll bail us out of a game or two that our defense tries to lose for us.

For the first time in the Stoops era a qb has not developed. It will be interesting to see what Riley and Meacham do with the qb's. Meacham helped to transform Trevone Boykin so I respect that. I just can't see Baker Mayfield being a good qb. You have to wonder why did KK allow Mayfield to transfer to another Big XII school without a fuss? Fair question. I think a between the lines message has been given to Trevor Knight that he has to step up his game. By the the third game, probably be back as the starter. With the exception of Sterling Shepard no receiver has developed at OK. Micco, will the te position be as important in the OK in the new offense like it has in the past? They lost almost their whole ol. If the Mixson can stay out 8f trouble, if the hotshot freshman rb plays they could have a serious running game. On d OK fans are going to have to accept that Eric Striker is not that good. Against TCU and Baylor he was flat out embarrassed. OK does have some players on d, Tapper, Alexander, and especially Zack Sanchez who could start at most schools. I've never seen a Stoops team look so flat and listless like their bowl game. Truth be told, they looked just as bad in their bowl game as we did. I saw that OK has at least ten 4* players in this year's freshman class so any thoughts as to their recruiting not being as good as in the past is premature.

All that being said for the first time in the Stoops era, I don't have any idea how good OK will be this because of their past they'll be picked number three in the Big XII. They could be 10-2 or they could be 6-6.

 

[MiccoMacey]

No doubt, this is not your normal 10-2 OU team. I think it's a reflection of how down the Big Twelve is this year outside of Waco and Ft Worth. I think part of that "down" is Texas. And although they're an improved team, it won't show up in the W/L record.

Hey, if I'm wrong, feel free to bring my prediction back up and let me have it.

 

[MiccoMacey]

Outthere,

I don't think it's that Stiker isn't any good. I think that he's just limited at what he does exceptionally well. He's a liability in pass coverage, and just barely serviceable in run support. That just leaves pass rush, and if that's all he can do it's hard to fool the OCs. Part of that is we're stuck with Mike Stoops, which is why we're going to be subpar on defense. And it's funny because I agreed with just about everything you wrote, except about Zach. Great cover and ball-hawking skills, but junior high talent as a tackler. So if the guy catches the ball on Sanchez, it'll be another 10 yards before he's brought down.

Good synopsis and questions.

 

[agentorange84]

What QB will be starting for OSU that was injured? Mason Rudolph already named the starter. JW Walsh will play some but definitely won't be starting.

 

[horn01]

What QB will be starting for OSU that was injured? Mason Rudolph already named the starter. JW Walsh will play some but definitely won't be starting.

Well there you go. Another QB without any record of success. Since I started this thread I heard that QB isn't decided at Baylor either. Apparently true freshman Stidham is making a push for the job. Some will read that as great news, but I makes you wonder if their hasn't been a bit of a glitch in the plug and play system. Either way other than Boykin QB is pretty much a wild card with all of Texas' opponents.