If there's one thing I've learned about Charlie Strong in the last year since he arrived in Austin, he's going to do things his way, whether you or I sign off on his decisions or not.
A year ago, Strong was essentially given a blank checkbook when building his initial coaching staff and rather than hire the best group of assistants that money can buy, he went and got guys who helped him land the Texas coaching job in the first place, as he brought both coordinators (if we're counting Shawn Watson as a coordinator), his strength coach and most of the Louisville defensive brain trust along with him, while surrounding himself mostly with coaches in the industry that he knew and with whom he felt comfortable.
Of course, that's not unusual at all, as James Franklin and Steve Sarkisian were other coaches that took over major programs in 2015 and brought most of their previous staffs with them to new locations in the process.
Ironically or perhaps not, the two coaches that have departed the Texas coaching staff were guys that hadn't worked with Strong at Louisville and weren't considered part of Strong's true inner circle (most of which was forged in stops at Louisville and Florida), which could prove to be an important point in the discussion if Strong believes that point was part of the problem with Les Koenning and Bruce Chambers.
Of the nine assistant coaches that Strong hired, Koenning and Chambers were the only two that were seemingly hired because of their Texas roots, as Koenning comes from a Texas football family that carries weight in this state, while Chambers is a former Dallas-area high school coach that had been given a "recruiting coordinator" title under Mack Brown. Deep down, my guess is those two hires were made because people kept telling him that he needed to have some Texas roots on his staff, but you can make a strong case that the two fellas with Texas ties were the two least effective recruiters on the entire staff.
That has to bewilder the hell out of Strong, especially since he probably feels like if he had trusted his own instincts and brought in two more of his own guys, he wouldn't be in the position of needing to hire two new coaches in an effort to take some of the weight off of the lead the defensive staff has been carrying all year.
As Strong gets ready to hire his new coaches in the next few days, the guess here is that familiarity of his vision and relationship experience will matter more than Texas roots or whatever the best is that money can buy. On some level, I think we all have to understand that instinct should it be the one that he follows because as he's had to handle a non-stop variety pack of job complications in year one, if you're going to catch heat as the head coach at a place like Texas, catch the heat doing it your way.
So, I get it, I really do.
However, Charlie, if you're reading this, let's keep it real. If you're going to have Chris Vaughn and Brian Jean-Mary bird-dogging South Florida each year, you've got to have two others that can go into the Metroplex, Houston and East Texas and drop the damn microphone with their recruiting hustle.
That's what this staff needs more than anything else. Period. He doesn't automatically have to have Texas roots, but if he does, that's a positive. If it takes a lot of money to close the deal, do it. Coaches without a serious selection of 5-star and high 4-star recruiting skins on the wall shouldn't even bother to send in a resume.
If you're wondering what kind of name registers as the kind of hire I'm talking about, take a look at Chicago Bears wide receivers coach Mike Groh, who currently lives in job limbo while he waits for the Bears to hire a new head coach. Before he departed for the NFL, he was the Rivals.com National Recruiter of the Year at Alabama and was chiefly responsible for persuading A'Shawn Robinson to flip from Texas to the Crimson Tide.
Of course, Groh worked with Strong for a year at Louisville, so you're hoping no bridges are burned if you're a Texas fan because I'm not sure there's a better hire that he could make. Check, check, check and more checks.
Oh, and call Tim Brewster. I can personally confirm that the man loves Austin and his thirst for recruiting surpasses your own. If you need a referral, ask Vince Young.
If anyone is asking me, those two represent the dream team hires because there's splash, size and substance all over the place. It should be noted for the record that these two names represent the same two names I had listed a year ago as Dream Team staff members. Anything less than difference makers on that level would represent an opportunity lost in my book and all comfort from the hires should exist because you know you hired the best candidates possible.
Nothing else should matter.
No. 2 - The John Burt Story: 101 lessons in recruiting …
After so many years of taking a knee and trying to run out the clock in the final months of recruiting, Texas fans are finding out how everyone else in college football pretty much lives on a yearly basis.
This is what recruiting looks like when you're not taking your shots from the free-throw line and perhaps no recruitment in 2014-15 serves as a better case-study for the future than John Burt.
Recruiting is going to feel like a roller coaster all the way through February, but especially in the month of January. Kids will be wishy-washy. They'll visit and then they won't and then they still might. SEC schools will continue to press, as will the locals in every port.
The lesson to learn is that recruiting is no longer a sprint to Junior Days, it's a marathon to Signing Day that arrives almost 12 months later, so watch what the hell you say at all times because you never know when a kid will visit or won't or will … or … you get the picture.
Pull up your big boy Scooby Doo underwear and embrace the loopty-loop that is your new life as a college football fan.
No. 3 - Evaluating the evaluation of the state of Texas in 2015 …
Although I don't like to admit this publically, I'm creeping up on 20 years of ranking high school prospects from the state of Texas and once I put a ribbon and bow on the Class of 2015 kids in the next couple of weeks, I'll officially have 19 years of lists in the books and the 2016 list has already gone through multiple rough drafts.
Back in the prehistoric old days in the very beginning, I was a reporter/producer in local television and relied on in-person scouting of mostly Central Texas kids (and whoever I could catch in the playoffs), game film/highlight tapes sent by high school coaches and all the state championship games that were aired on television. At the time, Rivals.com didn't yet exist and events like the Nike Camps and even the State 7-on-7 Tournaments weren't even ideas.
One of the reasons the Recruits in Review tape of Longhorns signees was once produced with such popularity is that for many people who cared, it was the first time they had ever laid eyes on the Longhorns of the future.
Honestly, you accumulated as much data as possible, but there were times when ranking some players meant going off of very limited data and doing the best you could without a complete view of the guys you were ranking. Hell, one of the reasons I probably had Drew Brees ranked so high in 1997 was that I saw more of him than anyone else in the state by quite a large degree.
To say it was unsophisticated in those early days would be an insult to things that are unsophisticated.
As I was putting the finishing touches on the most recent LSR Top 100 and was looking through the different drafts of the list over the course of more than two years, it felt like I had been covering some of these kids forever. Looking at senior film of Malik Jefferson, Daylon Mack and Kyler Murray felt like riding around in London with Clark Griswald.
"Look kids… Big… Parliament!"
Whereas in the old days it always felt like there were so many unknowns with most of the prospects being ranked, I can safely tell you by the time we get to National Signing Day these days, it feels like we know these kids inside and out.
But, what about the kids we don't know inside and out? I started to wonder which kids in the state might not be underrated as much as they've been under-evaluated. As someone that is constantly trying to self-evaluate in an effort to turn a non-scientific process into as much of a scientific process as possible, I wanted to identify any possible holes that might exist in this year's rankings process through a lack of information or familiarity bias.
Specifically, I wondered to myself if I might be able to find my answers in my beloved high three-stars (5.7) section of the rankings, which I believe represent the most underrated value in all of recruiting in the state of Texas. For those that are unaware of my previous recruiting analytics, data pulled from 2002-2009 shows that the Texas high three-star prospect performs on a level of a national low four-star (5.8) at a number of positions when it comes to developing into NFL-level talent, and in a lot of cases it outperforms the more highly touted tiers above it.
So, what I did was go through the Rivals archives and chart how many times our national analysts had scouted players ranked in the Texas Top 50 in person, regardless of whether it was in a game, camp or combine setting. By my count, there were at least 20 different categories of venues that provided these in-person evaluation opportunities.
Here's the overall numbers breakdown:
(Note: These numbers only include evaluations made by our national analysts, not team sites within the network such as Orangebloods, SoonerScoop and AggieYell and it doesn't include film evaluation of any kind.)
Eight: Malik Jefferson, Daylon Mack and Kyler Murray
Seven: Kendall Sheffield and Jarrett Stidham
Six: Maea Teuhema, Deionte Thompson, Damarkus Lodge and Anthony Wheeler
Five: Holton Hill, Toby Weathersby, Jordan Davis, Richard Moore and Prentice McKinney
Four: Soso Jamabo, Rodney Anderson, Kris Boyd, Carlos Strickland, Larry Pryor, James Lockhart, JaMychal Hasty, Jordan Stevenson, PJ Mbanasor, Kemah Siverand, Zach Rogers and Charles Omenihu
Three: Ronald Jones, Justin Dunning, Connor Dyer, Chris Warren, Keaton Sutherland, Josh Butler, Trevor Elbert, Aca'Cedric Ware, J.W. Ketchum and Connor Lanfear
Two: Darrion Daniels, Chad President, J.F. Thomas, Jaylon Lane, Ryan Newsome, Du'Vonta Lampkin, Bobby Evans and Kahli Haughton
One: Roney Elam, Blake Lynch, Patrick Vahe and Quinten Dormady
None: Connor Williams and Kenneth Mann
As you can see, the overwhelming majority of the state has been seen up-close-and-personal quite a bit, especially the elite of the elite. Ironically, even a guy like Vahe that hasn't been seen all that much by the national guys for a variety of reasons has been scouted in-person by the Orangebloods.com team at least three different times from 2013-14. Still, for the sake of sticking to the idea that anyone not viewed on multiple occasions by our national analysts might quality as under-evaluated, it's a list of six players that consists of Elam (No. 14), Vahe (No. 23), Williams (No. 26), Lynch (No. 27), Dormady (No. 37) and Mann (No. 48).
Now that we've looked at the Top 50, let's narrow our scope to the 5.7-rated kids in the state, a number which currently stands at 35.
Eight: Bryce English and James Proche
Seven: Chason Virgil
Six: Cameron Townsend
Five: Keke Coutee and Rawleigh Williams
Four: Zach Rogers, Charles Omenihu, Jay Bradford, Tyreik Gray and Jalen Guyton
Three: Connor Lanfear, Jalen Campbell and DeAndre McNeil
Two: Ryan Newsome, Du'Vonta Lampkin, Kahlil Haughton, Madison Akamnonu, Alec Dunham, Landis Durham, DeShon Elliott, Tyler Higby, John Humphrey and Johnny Shaw
One: Sam Awolope, Joseph Broadnax. Nate Dalton, Corey Dauphine, Morrie Evans, Kingsley Keke, Breylin Mitchell and Bryson Ogelsby
None: Kenneth Mann, Devontre Strickland and Semaj Thomas
So, what does all this mean? It means if we're looking at a list of the Top 80 in Texas, roughly 80-percent have been evaluated at least twice in person by Rivals.com national analysts and only one of those who has not is a Texas Longhorn commitment or target, which would seem to indicate that almost everyone the Longhorns offer within state borders is a guy that Rivals.com has seen enough of to produce some sort of qualified evaluation.
At least 80-percent.
However, whereas only six of the 43 prospects rated as a four-star or higher have been evaluated on less than two in-person appearances via the national analysts, the number rises to 12 of 35 (34 percent) when we expand the bookkeeping to the high three-star recruits. It'll be fascinating to see if that batch of players over-performs, underperforms or stays in the same data-point range as the rest of the 5.7 prospects over the course of the next five years. I now that as I begin the process of piecing together the final Top 100 revision of the year, I'll pay more attention to the film of those 17 kids than I would have prior to inspecting the numbers.
Overall, the larger point is that the evaluations taking place in 2015 are light years ahead of what I worked with when I first arrived in the industry in 1997 and took my first position with Rivals.com in 1999.
The holes in the rankings used to come from the pockets of players you were ranking without enough information to truly form a complete opinion, now I'm starting to think our biggest concern moving forward needs to center around our information bias, as it's easier to put the kids you've seen out in front of the rankings, while unintentionally punishing those you haven't seen as much of.
No. 4 - Scattershooting on the Longhorns …
... When John O'Korn arrives as perhaps the best outgoing transfer candidate with a strong interest in the Longhorns, it probably gives you an idea of how limited the options are that exist right now. The scary thing is that I think the Longhorns might be interested in taking a flyer on O'Korn if he could play right away, instead of being forced to sit out the 2015 season. The help that is needed is NOW.
… I've been saying all along that the key to Daylon Mack's recruitment is getting him on campus for an official visit and it would appear that after Sunday's news that he has cancelled that visit, it's going to be much more difficult to fight to the front of the finish line on NSD. My instinctive read of the situation is that his separation from A&M has closed to the point that he's not taking the visit to Austin out of consideration to that staff's wishes. Considering that Mack isn't likely to leave the state and few have ever thought he would go far from home, the Auburn visit feels like a throwaway (fun) trip. If you're Texas, just keep grinding away in hopes that you can change his mind because there's no reason to give up now.
… Don't look for the potential loss of Mack for good as something that impacts the final numbers in this class. As far as I' concerned, he was in the "found money" category of recruits that currently exists and for whom you make room if that kind of good problem to have pops up.
… For a team with a hell of a lot of receivers on its roster going into next year, the Longhorns sure seem to be engaged with a lot of names in the final month of the recruiting process. That tells you all you probably need to know about what they believe is needed for this offense moving forward, which isn't exactly a glowing endorsement of the players on campus.
No. 5 - Moment of truth arriving for Texas basketball …
Oh man, not this … again.
One month after pushing top-ranked Kentucky for 35 minutes without its top backcourt playmaker, the Texas Longhorns men's basketball team appeared destined for the kind of season that could redefine the program's reputation. Hell, John Calipari called Rick Barnes' team a potential Final Four team after getting an up-close look at the Longhorns.
Yet, here we are again with the Longhorns in what would appear to be another January free-fall after Oklahoma State defeated the soon-to-be-former top-10 Texas team, just days after Oklahoma completely obliterated it on Big Monday in front of a national audience.
We're two months away from the start of March Madness and there's a lot of time for this team to get its act together and nothing from the last week will matter at all if the Longhorns emerge as the team they seemed destined to become in November, but what's happening right now is literally the last thing this program's fan-base can handle.
Four times in the last seven years Rick Barnes program has ascended to the top 10 in the rankings, only to collapse into a pool of their own vomit as non-conference play turns into conference play and conference play turns into Tournament play.
This just can't keep happening. Period. The sample size is starting to get embarrassing.
Therefore, I'm just going to ignore what happened for a few days. With a week to prepare for its next game against West Virginia, it's time Barnes to find the right buttons to push and get through this little mid-season distress.
Enough is enough, Rick.
No. 6 - Devastation in Green Bay
Honestly, I'm not quite ready to talk about this game, but for much of Sunday afternoon and into the evening, I've been fueled by bitterness and anger, emotions that won't likely depart any time soon.
In fact, after taking some time to consider the moment, I consider the incomplete pass ruling on Dez Bryant's play near the goal line as the second-most pissed off I've ever been as a Cowboys fan over a call in any game. Nothing will ever top the non-pass interference call on Deion Sanders in the 1995 NFC Championship that might have cost Dallas an opportunity for a three-peat, but this one at least crosses the state line of that call, if not the area code.
Dez Bryant caught the ball, took three steps, switched the ball into another hand and stretched out to the end zone, but it wasn't a catch because he didn't make a football move.
Get the hell out of here.
Also, save me that mess about it being just like the Calvin Johnson play in Chicago because Johnson caught that ball in the end zone, whereas Bryant caught the ball at the five-yard line and took three steps to the goal-line. You can also save that mess about it being justice after what happened in Detroit. When the lack of a pass interference call was made in Detroit, there was twice as much time on the clock, enough for Dallas to take the ball down the field for a touchdown and for Detroit to come up short on a game-winning drive. In this instance, Dallas never got the ball back. It wasn't the same thing at all.
The better team did not win the game on Sunday. Now leave me alone and allow me to wallow in my bitterness.
No. 7a - Scattershooting on Patriots/Ravens …
… You'd be hard-pressed to find a better Conference semifinal game than the one these two teams gave us for 60 minutes, as both teams landed haymakers at various moments that made you wonder if the other team could get back up off the canvas. When the dust finally settled in the final two minutes, Joe Flacco made simply one fewer play and one too many mistakes to beat Tom Brady on a day when the NFL's No. 2 all-time quarterback was in vintage form.
… On a day when the team's leading rusher totaled seven yards, Tom Brady was 33-of-50 for 367 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. It wasn't the best he's ever been, but damn it was pretty close, considering the circumstances.
… Flacco really deserved a better fate because he was as good as Brady all day until his final interception.
… Torrey Smith has to break that final Flacco interception up … he just has to. The entire season was on the line with that ball in the air and a shoulder bump into the defender as he's catching the ball isn't enough. By any means necessary, that ball has to fall incomplete.
… The Hoodie might want to activate Jonus Gray next week unless he's down with the 14 yards on 13 carries his team accumulated against the Ravens. Whatever point he's trying to make by continuing to punish the kid for missing a meeting weeks ago has been pounded into the ground.
… If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, Garrett Gilbert gets a Super Bowl ring. Just a random thought while watching the game.
No. 7b - Scattershooting on Seahawks/Panthers …
… Is Earl Thomas the best NFL Longhorn since Earl Campbell? I've said it before, but if Seattle wins another Super Bowl this year, Thomas will be well on his way to a career that ends in Canton. Hell, Thomas already has as many All-Pro seasons as John Lynch, who was just named a finalist to the NFL Hall of Fame.
… Kam Chancellor is one hell of a football player.
… Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco are pretty much cut from the same cloth. When the post-season begins, their quarterback ratings take off.
… Marshawn Lynch just can't help himself …
No. 7c - Scattershooting on Broncos/Colts …
… Andrew Luck is the truth.
… Oh, Peyton Manning, I'm not sure it's ever going to get any better. The window appears to have closed. The man just ran out of gas.
… You can't win a Super Bowl when C.J. Anderson is your best player.
No. 8 - Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Don't look now, but Liverpool is slowly but surely climbing its way back into Top Four contention in the EPL. Since an ugly loss at Manchester United, the Reds have compiled a 5-1-1 record and are suddenly four points out of the No. 4 spot with 17 fixtures to go. Although I don't yet have a favorite player, Philippe Coutinho and Lazar Markovic are putting themselves into that kind of discussion.
… You don't have to believe in jinxes, but I'm pretty sure Dustin McComas views me as a witch doctor after the bad juju I put on his Tottenham squad on Saturday against Crystal Palace.
… Don't look now, but the Philadelphia 76ers aren't even the second-worst team in the NBA in the middle of January, as the NY Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves are re-writing the book on being terrible by out-tanking the team that is truly trying to tank.
… RIP, Roy Tarpley.
No. 9 - Countdown to the Oscars: 42 Days …
The Golden Globes are in the books and the Oscar nominations come out on Thursday which means that we're in the homestretch and I still have a lot of work to do.
The wife and I took in Into the Woods on Friday, but were forced to leave with 30 minutes to go in the movie because my son Hendrix vomited a couple of times while we were trying to sneak away long enough to enjoy a movie at the Draft House.
Somehow, I've got to sneak into a theater and catch the end of the movie. Oh well, it's time to put down at least one of the big dogs this week.
Next up on my list: Selma, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, A Most Violent Year, Wild, Cake and The Judge.
Best Picture (based on movies that I have actually seen)
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Whiplash
4. Gone Girl
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actor (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
3. Miles Teller (Whiplash)
4. Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
5. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Actress (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
2. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
3. Emily Blount (Into the Woods)
4. Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)
Best Supporting Actor (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Ed Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Miyavi (Unbroken)
Best Supporting Actress (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
5. Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)
Best Director (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
3. Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
4. David Fincher (Gone Girl)
5. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
No. 10 - The List: Taylor Swift …
Sometimes you have to take one for the team and when I considered all of the attention that she has generated on this message board over the last few years, including a three-page thread last week, I knew that it was time to embrace my role as man of the people and give you what you want.
That right, a Taylor Swift list!
Enjoy this one, I know you will.
Last five songs out: Our Song
10. I Knew You Were Trouble
The video only has 200,000,000 views on YouTube. Goodness gracious.
9. White Horse
One of her better country songs.
8. Long Live
A fan favorite.
7. Safe and Sound
Hunger Games, holla!
6. Teardrops on my Guitar
Might be the most underrated song she's written. I can't believe I just typed those words.
5. Back to December
Taylor's first apology song, reportedly directed towards ex-flame Taylor Lautner.
4. Shake it off
This song has more than 463,000,000 views on YouTube. Let that sink in for a moment.
3. Love Story
A lot of people would slot this song in the No. 1 spot because it's kind of her signature song, but not this guy. It'll have to settle for the bronze.
2. Blank Space
Yes this might be Taylor Swift attempting to do a Lorde-ish song, but I haven't been able to get it out of my head for weeks.
1. You Belong With Me
The ending of the video appears to have been inspired by the movie Teen Wolf, which was enough for me to put it in the No. 1 spot.
Archives List
Blues/Jazz: Listen via Spotify )
Classical: Listen via Spotify)
Country: Listen via Spotify )
Electronic: Listen Via Spotify
Funk: Listen Via Spotify (Part I)
Metal: Listen Via Spotify
Pop: Listen via Spotify )
Punk: Listen via Spotify)
Random: My Number 1's on Spotify
Rap: Listen via Spotify),
R&B: Listen via Spotify)
Reggae: Listen via Spotify)
Rock: Listen via Spotify )
This post was edited on 1/12 7:51 PM by Ketchum
A year ago, Strong was essentially given a blank checkbook when building his initial coaching staff and rather than hire the best group of assistants that money can buy, he went and got guys who helped him land the Texas coaching job in the first place, as he brought both coordinators (if we're counting Shawn Watson as a coordinator), his strength coach and most of the Louisville defensive brain trust along with him, while surrounding himself mostly with coaches in the industry that he knew and with whom he felt comfortable.
Of course, that's not unusual at all, as James Franklin and Steve Sarkisian were other coaches that took over major programs in 2015 and brought most of their previous staffs with them to new locations in the process.
Ironically or perhaps not, the two coaches that have departed the Texas coaching staff were guys that hadn't worked with Strong at Louisville and weren't considered part of Strong's true inner circle (most of which was forged in stops at Louisville and Florida), which could prove to be an important point in the discussion if Strong believes that point was part of the problem with Les Koenning and Bruce Chambers.
Of the nine assistant coaches that Strong hired, Koenning and Chambers were the only two that were seemingly hired because of their Texas roots, as Koenning comes from a Texas football family that carries weight in this state, while Chambers is a former Dallas-area high school coach that had been given a "recruiting coordinator" title under Mack Brown. Deep down, my guess is those two hires were made because people kept telling him that he needed to have some Texas roots on his staff, but you can make a strong case that the two fellas with Texas ties were the two least effective recruiters on the entire staff.
That has to bewilder the hell out of Strong, especially since he probably feels like if he had trusted his own instincts and brought in two more of his own guys, he wouldn't be in the position of needing to hire two new coaches in an effort to take some of the weight off of the lead the defensive staff has been carrying all year.
As Strong gets ready to hire his new coaches in the next few days, the guess here is that familiarity of his vision and relationship experience will matter more than Texas roots or whatever the best is that money can buy. On some level, I think we all have to understand that instinct should it be the one that he follows because as he's had to handle a non-stop variety pack of job complications in year one, if you're going to catch heat as the head coach at a place like Texas, catch the heat doing it your way.
So, I get it, I really do.
However, Charlie, if you're reading this, let's keep it real. If you're going to have Chris Vaughn and Brian Jean-Mary bird-dogging South Florida each year, you've got to have two others that can go into the Metroplex, Houston and East Texas and drop the damn microphone with their recruiting hustle.
That's what this staff needs more than anything else. Period. He doesn't automatically have to have Texas roots, but if he does, that's a positive. If it takes a lot of money to close the deal, do it. Coaches without a serious selection of 5-star and high 4-star recruiting skins on the wall shouldn't even bother to send in a resume.
If you're wondering what kind of name registers as the kind of hire I'm talking about, take a look at Chicago Bears wide receivers coach Mike Groh, who currently lives in job limbo while he waits for the Bears to hire a new head coach. Before he departed for the NFL, he was the Rivals.com National Recruiter of the Year at Alabama and was chiefly responsible for persuading A'Shawn Robinson to flip from Texas to the Crimson Tide.
Of course, Groh worked with Strong for a year at Louisville, so you're hoping no bridges are burned if you're a Texas fan because I'm not sure there's a better hire that he could make. Check, check, check and more checks.
Oh, and call Tim Brewster. I can personally confirm that the man loves Austin and his thirst for recruiting surpasses your own. If you need a referral, ask Vince Young.
If anyone is asking me, those two represent the dream team hires because there's splash, size and substance all over the place. It should be noted for the record that these two names represent the same two names I had listed a year ago as Dream Team staff members. Anything less than difference makers on that level would represent an opportunity lost in my book and all comfort from the hires should exist because you know you hired the best candidates possible.
Nothing else should matter.
No. 2 - The John Burt Story: 101 lessons in recruiting …
After so many years of taking a knee and trying to run out the clock in the final months of recruiting, Texas fans are finding out how everyone else in college football pretty much lives on a yearly basis.
This is what recruiting looks like when you're not taking your shots from the free-throw line and perhaps no recruitment in 2014-15 serves as a better case-study for the future than John Burt.
Recruiting is going to feel like a roller coaster all the way through February, but especially in the month of January. Kids will be wishy-washy. They'll visit and then they won't and then they still might. SEC schools will continue to press, as will the locals in every port.
The lesson to learn is that recruiting is no longer a sprint to Junior Days, it's a marathon to Signing Day that arrives almost 12 months later, so watch what the hell you say at all times because you never know when a kid will visit or won't or will … or … you get the picture.
Pull up your big boy Scooby Doo underwear and embrace the loopty-loop that is your new life as a college football fan.
No. 3 - Evaluating the evaluation of the state of Texas in 2015 …
Although I don't like to admit this publically, I'm creeping up on 20 years of ranking high school prospects from the state of Texas and once I put a ribbon and bow on the Class of 2015 kids in the next couple of weeks, I'll officially have 19 years of lists in the books and the 2016 list has already gone through multiple rough drafts.
Back in the prehistoric old days in the very beginning, I was a reporter/producer in local television and relied on in-person scouting of mostly Central Texas kids (and whoever I could catch in the playoffs), game film/highlight tapes sent by high school coaches and all the state championship games that were aired on television. At the time, Rivals.com didn't yet exist and events like the Nike Camps and even the State 7-on-7 Tournaments weren't even ideas.
One of the reasons the Recruits in Review tape of Longhorns signees was once produced with such popularity is that for many people who cared, it was the first time they had ever laid eyes on the Longhorns of the future.
Honestly, you accumulated as much data as possible, but there were times when ranking some players meant going off of very limited data and doing the best you could without a complete view of the guys you were ranking. Hell, one of the reasons I probably had Drew Brees ranked so high in 1997 was that I saw more of him than anyone else in the state by quite a large degree.
To say it was unsophisticated in those early days would be an insult to things that are unsophisticated.
As I was putting the finishing touches on the most recent LSR Top 100 and was looking through the different drafts of the list over the course of more than two years, it felt like I had been covering some of these kids forever. Looking at senior film of Malik Jefferson, Daylon Mack and Kyler Murray felt like riding around in London with Clark Griswald.
"Look kids… Big… Parliament!"
Whereas in the old days it always felt like there were so many unknowns with most of the prospects being ranked, I can safely tell you by the time we get to National Signing Day these days, it feels like we know these kids inside and out.
But, what about the kids we don't know inside and out? I started to wonder which kids in the state might not be underrated as much as they've been under-evaluated. As someone that is constantly trying to self-evaluate in an effort to turn a non-scientific process into as much of a scientific process as possible, I wanted to identify any possible holes that might exist in this year's rankings process through a lack of information or familiarity bias.
Specifically, I wondered to myself if I might be able to find my answers in my beloved high three-stars (5.7) section of the rankings, which I believe represent the most underrated value in all of recruiting in the state of Texas. For those that are unaware of my previous recruiting analytics, data pulled from 2002-2009 shows that the Texas high three-star prospect performs on a level of a national low four-star (5.8) at a number of positions when it comes to developing into NFL-level talent, and in a lot of cases it outperforms the more highly touted tiers above it.
So, what I did was go through the Rivals archives and chart how many times our national analysts had scouted players ranked in the Texas Top 50 in person, regardless of whether it was in a game, camp or combine setting. By my count, there were at least 20 different categories of venues that provided these in-person evaluation opportunities.
Here's the overall numbers breakdown:
(Note: These numbers only include evaluations made by our national analysts, not team sites within the network such as Orangebloods, SoonerScoop and AggieYell and it doesn't include film evaluation of any kind.)
Eight: Malik Jefferson, Daylon Mack and Kyler Murray
Seven: Kendall Sheffield and Jarrett Stidham
Six: Maea Teuhema, Deionte Thompson, Damarkus Lodge and Anthony Wheeler
Five: Holton Hill, Toby Weathersby, Jordan Davis, Richard Moore and Prentice McKinney
Four: Soso Jamabo, Rodney Anderson, Kris Boyd, Carlos Strickland, Larry Pryor, James Lockhart, JaMychal Hasty, Jordan Stevenson, PJ Mbanasor, Kemah Siverand, Zach Rogers and Charles Omenihu
Three: Ronald Jones, Justin Dunning, Connor Dyer, Chris Warren, Keaton Sutherland, Josh Butler, Trevor Elbert, Aca'Cedric Ware, J.W. Ketchum and Connor Lanfear
Two: Darrion Daniels, Chad President, J.F. Thomas, Jaylon Lane, Ryan Newsome, Du'Vonta Lampkin, Bobby Evans and Kahli Haughton
One: Roney Elam, Blake Lynch, Patrick Vahe and Quinten Dormady
None: Connor Williams and Kenneth Mann
As you can see, the overwhelming majority of the state has been seen up-close-and-personal quite a bit, especially the elite of the elite. Ironically, even a guy like Vahe that hasn't been seen all that much by the national guys for a variety of reasons has been scouted in-person by the Orangebloods.com team at least three different times from 2013-14. Still, for the sake of sticking to the idea that anyone not viewed on multiple occasions by our national analysts might quality as under-evaluated, it's a list of six players that consists of Elam (No. 14), Vahe (No. 23), Williams (No. 26), Lynch (No. 27), Dormady (No. 37) and Mann (No. 48).
Now that we've looked at the Top 50, let's narrow our scope to the 5.7-rated kids in the state, a number which currently stands at 35.
Eight: Bryce English and James Proche
Seven: Chason Virgil
Six: Cameron Townsend
Five: Keke Coutee and Rawleigh Williams
Four: Zach Rogers, Charles Omenihu, Jay Bradford, Tyreik Gray and Jalen Guyton
Three: Connor Lanfear, Jalen Campbell and DeAndre McNeil
Two: Ryan Newsome, Du'Vonta Lampkin, Kahlil Haughton, Madison Akamnonu, Alec Dunham, Landis Durham, DeShon Elliott, Tyler Higby, John Humphrey and Johnny Shaw
One: Sam Awolope, Joseph Broadnax. Nate Dalton, Corey Dauphine, Morrie Evans, Kingsley Keke, Breylin Mitchell and Bryson Ogelsby
None: Kenneth Mann, Devontre Strickland and Semaj Thomas
So, what does all this mean? It means if we're looking at a list of the Top 80 in Texas, roughly 80-percent have been evaluated at least twice in person by Rivals.com national analysts and only one of those who has not is a Texas Longhorn commitment or target, which would seem to indicate that almost everyone the Longhorns offer within state borders is a guy that Rivals.com has seen enough of to produce some sort of qualified evaluation.
At least 80-percent.
However, whereas only six of the 43 prospects rated as a four-star or higher have been evaluated on less than two in-person appearances via the national analysts, the number rises to 12 of 35 (34 percent) when we expand the bookkeeping to the high three-star recruits. It'll be fascinating to see if that batch of players over-performs, underperforms or stays in the same data-point range as the rest of the 5.7 prospects over the course of the next five years. I now that as I begin the process of piecing together the final Top 100 revision of the year, I'll pay more attention to the film of those 17 kids than I would have prior to inspecting the numbers.
Overall, the larger point is that the evaluations taking place in 2015 are light years ahead of what I worked with when I first arrived in the industry in 1997 and took my first position with Rivals.com in 1999.
The holes in the rankings used to come from the pockets of players you were ranking without enough information to truly form a complete opinion, now I'm starting to think our biggest concern moving forward needs to center around our information bias, as it's easier to put the kids you've seen out in front of the rankings, while unintentionally punishing those you haven't seen as much of.
No. 4 - Scattershooting on the Longhorns …
... When John O'Korn arrives as perhaps the best outgoing transfer candidate with a strong interest in the Longhorns, it probably gives you an idea of how limited the options are that exist right now. The scary thing is that I think the Longhorns might be interested in taking a flyer on O'Korn if he could play right away, instead of being forced to sit out the 2015 season. The help that is needed is NOW.
… I've been saying all along that the key to Daylon Mack's recruitment is getting him on campus for an official visit and it would appear that after Sunday's news that he has cancelled that visit, it's going to be much more difficult to fight to the front of the finish line on NSD. My instinctive read of the situation is that his separation from A&M has closed to the point that he's not taking the visit to Austin out of consideration to that staff's wishes. Considering that Mack isn't likely to leave the state and few have ever thought he would go far from home, the Auburn visit feels like a throwaway (fun) trip. If you're Texas, just keep grinding away in hopes that you can change his mind because there's no reason to give up now.
… Don't look for the potential loss of Mack for good as something that impacts the final numbers in this class. As far as I' concerned, he was in the "found money" category of recruits that currently exists and for whom you make room if that kind of good problem to have pops up.
… For a team with a hell of a lot of receivers on its roster going into next year, the Longhorns sure seem to be engaged with a lot of names in the final month of the recruiting process. That tells you all you probably need to know about what they believe is needed for this offense moving forward, which isn't exactly a glowing endorsement of the players on campus.
No. 5 - Moment of truth arriving for Texas basketball …
Oh man, not this … again.
One month after pushing top-ranked Kentucky for 35 minutes without its top backcourt playmaker, the Texas Longhorns men's basketball team appeared destined for the kind of season that could redefine the program's reputation. Hell, John Calipari called Rick Barnes' team a potential Final Four team after getting an up-close look at the Longhorns.
Yet, here we are again with the Longhorns in what would appear to be another January free-fall after Oklahoma State defeated the soon-to-be-former top-10 Texas team, just days after Oklahoma completely obliterated it on Big Monday in front of a national audience.
We're two months away from the start of March Madness and there's a lot of time for this team to get its act together and nothing from the last week will matter at all if the Longhorns emerge as the team they seemed destined to become in November, but what's happening right now is literally the last thing this program's fan-base can handle.
Four times in the last seven years Rick Barnes program has ascended to the top 10 in the rankings, only to collapse into a pool of their own vomit as non-conference play turns into conference play and conference play turns into Tournament play.
This just can't keep happening. Period. The sample size is starting to get embarrassing.
Therefore, I'm just going to ignore what happened for a few days. With a week to prepare for its next game against West Virginia, it's time Barnes to find the right buttons to push and get through this little mid-season distress.
Enough is enough, Rick.
No. 6 - Devastation in Green Bay
Honestly, I'm not quite ready to talk about this game, but for much of Sunday afternoon and into the evening, I've been fueled by bitterness and anger, emotions that won't likely depart any time soon.
In fact, after taking some time to consider the moment, I consider the incomplete pass ruling on Dez Bryant's play near the goal line as the second-most pissed off I've ever been as a Cowboys fan over a call in any game. Nothing will ever top the non-pass interference call on Deion Sanders in the 1995 NFC Championship that might have cost Dallas an opportunity for a three-peat, but this one at least crosses the state line of that call, if not the area code.
Dez Bryant caught the ball, took three steps, switched the ball into another hand and stretched out to the end zone, but it wasn't a catch because he didn't make a football move.
Get the hell out of here.
Also, save me that mess about it being just like the Calvin Johnson play in Chicago because Johnson caught that ball in the end zone, whereas Bryant caught the ball at the five-yard line and took three steps to the goal-line. You can also save that mess about it being justice after what happened in Detroit. When the lack of a pass interference call was made in Detroit, there was twice as much time on the clock, enough for Dallas to take the ball down the field for a touchdown and for Detroit to come up short on a game-winning drive. In this instance, Dallas never got the ball back. It wasn't the same thing at all.
The better team did not win the game on Sunday. Now leave me alone and allow me to wallow in my bitterness.
No. 7a - Scattershooting on Patriots/Ravens …
… You'd be hard-pressed to find a better Conference semifinal game than the one these two teams gave us for 60 minutes, as both teams landed haymakers at various moments that made you wonder if the other team could get back up off the canvas. When the dust finally settled in the final two minutes, Joe Flacco made simply one fewer play and one too many mistakes to beat Tom Brady on a day when the NFL's No. 2 all-time quarterback was in vintage form.
… On a day when the team's leading rusher totaled seven yards, Tom Brady was 33-of-50 for 367 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. It wasn't the best he's ever been, but damn it was pretty close, considering the circumstances.
… Flacco really deserved a better fate because he was as good as Brady all day until his final interception.
… Torrey Smith has to break that final Flacco interception up … he just has to. The entire season was on the line with that ball in the air and a shoulder bump into the defender as he's catching the ball isn't enough. By any means necessary, that ball has to fall incomplete.
… The Hoodie might want to activate Jonus Gray next week unless he's down with the 14 yards on 13 carries his team accumulated against the Ravens. Whatever point he's trying to make by continuing to punish the kid for missing a meeting weeks ago has been pounded into the ground.
… If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, Garrett Gilbert gets a Super Bowl ring. Just a random thought while watching the game.
No. 7b - Scattershooting on Seahawks/Panthers …
… Is Earl Thomas the best NFL Longhorn since Earl Campbell? I've said it before, but if Seattle wins another Super Bowl this year, Thomas will be well on his way to a career that ends in Canton. Hell, Thomas already has as many All-Pro seasons as John Lynch, who was just named a finalist to the NFL Hall of Fame.
… Kam Chancellor is one hell of a football player.
… Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco are pretty much cut from the same cloth. When the post-season begins, their quarterback ratings take off.
… Marshawn Lynch just can't help himself …
No. 7c - Scattershooting on Broncos/Colts …
… Andrew Luck is the truth.
… Oh, Peyton Manning, I'm not sure it's ever going to get any better. The window appears to have closed. The man just ran out of gas.
… You can't win a Super Bowl when C.J. Anderson is your best player.
No. 8 - Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Don't look now, but Liverpool is slowly but surely climbing its way back into Top Four contention in the EPL. Since an ugly loss at Manchester United, the Reds have compiled a 5-1-1 record and are suddenly four points out of the No. 4 spot with 17 fixtures to go. Although I don't yet have a favorite player, Philippe Coutinho and Lazar Markovic are putting themselves into that kind of discussion.
… You don't have to believe in jinxes, but I'm pretty sure Dustin McComas views me as a witch doctor after the bad juju I put on his Tottenham squad on Saturday against Crystal Palace.
… Don't look now, but the Philadelphia 76ers aren't even the second-worst team in the NBA in the middle of January, as the NY Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves are re-writing the book on being terrible by out-tanking the team that is truly trying to tank.
… RIP, Roy Tarpley.
No. 9 - Countdown to the Oscars: 42 Days …
The Golden Globes are in the books and the Oscar nominations come out on Thursday which means that we're in the homestretch and I still have a lot of work to do.
The wife and I took in Into the Woods on Friday, but were forced to leave with 30 minutes to go in the movie because my son Hendrix vomited a couple of times while we were trying to sneak away long enough to enjoy a movie at the Draft House.
Somehow, I've got to sneak into a theater and catch the end of the movie. Oh well, it's time to put down at least one of the big dogs this week.
Next up on my list: Selma, Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, A Most Violent Year, Wild, Cake and The Judge.
Best Picture (based on movies that I have actually seen)
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Whiplash
4. Gone Girl
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actor (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
3. Miles Teller (Whiplash)
4. Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
5. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Actress (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
2. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
3. Emily Blount (Into the Woods)
4. Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)
Best Supporting Actor (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Ed Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Miyavi (Unbroken)
Best Supporting Actress (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
5. Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)
Best Director (based on the movies that I have actually seen)
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
3. Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
4. David Fincher (Gone Girl)
5. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
No. 10 - The List: Taylor Swift …
Sometimes you have to take one for the team and when I considered all of the attention that she has generated on this message board over the last few years, including a three-page thread last week, I knew that it was time to embrace my role as man of the people and give you what you want.
That right, a Taylor Swift list!
Enjoy this one, I know you will.
Last five songs out: Our Song
10. I Knew You Were Trouble
The video only has 200,000,000 views on YouTube. Goodness gracious.
9. White Horse
One of her better country songs.
8. Long Live
A fan favorite.
7. Safe and Sound
Hunger Games, holla!
6. Teardrops on my Guitar
Might be the most underrated song she's written. I can't believe I just typed those words.
5. Back to December
Taylor's first apology song, reportedly directed towards ex-flame Taylor Lautner.
4. Shake it off
This song has more than 463,000,000 views on YouTube. Let that sink in for a moment.
3. Love Story
A lot of people would slot this song in the No. 1 spot because it's kind of her signature song, but not this guy. It'll have to settle for the bronze.
2. Blank Space
Yes this might be Taylor Swift attempting to do a Lorde-ish song, but I haven't been able to get it out of my head for weeks.
1. You Belong With Me
The ending of the video appears to have been inspired by the movie Teen Wolf, which was enough for me to put it in the No. 1 spot.
Archives List
Blues/Jazz: Listen via Spotify )
Classical: Listen via Spotify)
Country: Listen via Spotify )
Electronic: Listen Via Spotify
Funk: Listen Via Spotify (Part I)
Metal: Listen Via Spotify
Pop: Listen via Spotify )
Punk: Listen via Spotify)
Random: My Number 1's on Spotify
Rap: Listen via Spotify),
R&B: Listen via Spotify)
Reggae: Listen via Spotify)
Rock: Listen via Spotify )
This post was edited on 1/12 7:51 PM by Ketchum
