The truth about the relationship between Charlie Strong and the fan base of The University of Texas is that the latter is still trying to size up its new football coach.
While the mind tells the eyes that Strong is one of the best coaches in the country, the eyes tell the mind that the Longhorns didn’t win any more games in 2014 with Strong than they would have with Mack Brown.
While the mind tells the eyes that Strong’s recruiting will be just fine in 2016, based in large part on the finish to the 2015 recruiting season, the eyes tell the mind that very few difference-makers in the 2016 recruiting class are leaning towards Texas and even fewer from that group are offensive linemen.
With a 2015 season looming, my own personal instincts tell me that the mind and the eyes of almost every Longhorn fan will continue to do battle in the coming months, as Strong directs a program that’s not quite ready for prime-time. The patience of the program will be tested along the way, as the thirst for winning reaches its sixth long year in the desert.
When asked by Orangebloods all over the globe whether I believe Strong will not only survive the initial makeover of a program in desperate need of one, but also if he’ll win championships, a cloudy forecast is about all I have to offer. There are some things a person can know and this simply isn’t one of them because the complexities for success are filled with too many unknowns 16 months into this new era in Austin.
Still, some of the knowns that have been revealed over those 16 months give real reason for optimism and one in particular was on full display over the weekend … Charlie Strong can spot talent and he can absolutely develop the hell out of it.
The data is simply stunning.
A little further down in this week’s column (section II), you’ll see the data from this year’s NFL Draft that illustrates the raw value of each star ranking, but for the purpose of enlightening you on the numbers that will be of greatest interest to most of you, know these very basics for the moment based on the data from this year’s results.
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
While Strong was at Louisville, he averaged 16 three-star prospects each year from 2010-2012, which means that the national average suggests that 1.14 players from each of those classes would emerge at some point as a drafted NFL prospect.
All told, seven players that arrived as three-star prospects under Strong were drafted this
weekend, which means that on the average, one out of every 2.28 three-star prospects recruited by Strong was eventually developed into an NFL drafted prospects.
Basically, Strong spots and develops three-star prospects better than the rest of the nation develops four-star prospects by a considerable margin and nearly as well as the rest of the nation develops five-star prospects.
Of course, development is only one part of the equation that will determine whether Strong achieves ultimate success, but it’s a damn big part of that equation. Does he need a quarterback? Yes. Does his in-game decision-making need to be sharper? Probably. Might a little more emphasis on analytics prove to be helpful? It can’t hurt.
Perhaps he’s the most imperfect perfect coach in the country, kind of a defensive coaching version of Les Miles without the Les Miles, but Strong has few peers anywhere when it comes to helping kids reach their athletic ceilings.
How long will it take?
Probably longer than you’d prefer, but every part of his background and history suggests that if you give him enough time, he’s going to produce a type of player that can play with the best of the best, regardless of the stars on their Rivals profile page. You don’t have to believe me … it’s pretty much science.
No. 2 – Holy five-stars! Breaking down the NFL Draft through recruiting lenses ...
For the first time in the history of this particular column, I’ll begin a section with a Brittany Spears quote.
Oops … I did it again.
For the third straight year, I found myself logging the entire NFL Draft with the purpose of better understanding what’s working and what’s not working as it relates to developing players at the collegiate level from the state of Texas and the entire nation as a whole.
I’ll get to the state of Texas a little later this week because I want the initial focus to be on the nationwide results.
Before we get started, a couple of notes:
1. There are currently 127 FBS programs playing college football in 2014, which means that there are 10,795 scholarship players in college football if every school has maxed out its 85-man scholarship limit.
2. From 2010-2012 (the three classes that made up the 2014 NFL Draft Class almost exclusively), Rivals.com rated on the average 3,754.67 players per year (including JUCO and prep schools), with the average star distribution breakdown looking like this:
Five stars (6.1): 28.67
Four stars (6.0): 28.33
Four stars (5.9): 68.33
Four stars (5.8): 244
Three stars (5.7) 342
Three stars (5.6) 536.33
Three stars (5.5) 700
Two stars (5.4) 750
Two stars (5.3) 458
Two stars (5.2) 508
Two stars (5.1) 56.67
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 34.33
With those numbers serving as the foundation of the average Rivals.com recruiting class numbers over a three-year window, let's break down what the numbers look like over the course of all seven rounds of the NFL Draft this year, beginning with a look at the numbers in the first round:
Five stars (6.1): 8
Four stars (6.0): 4
Four stars (5.9): 2
Four stars (5.8): 3
Three stars (5.7) 8
Three stars (5.6) 3
Three stars (5.5) 1
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 1
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 0
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 0
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers (last year’s number is bolded and in parenthesis):
a. One out of every 3.58 (7.33) five-star (6.1) prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 7.08 (19.50) top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 34.17 (20.92) mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first
round.
d. One out of every 81.33 (35.00) low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
e. One out of every 42.75 (54.17) top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
f. One out of every 178.78 (131.17) mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
g. One out of every 700.0 (329.34) low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
h. One out of every 302.0 (545.00) top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
i. Zero out of every 564.67 (655.00) mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 (250.00) low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round
In a more generic sense, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 3.58 five-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 37.85 four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 131.53 three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
d. One out of every 451.75 two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
Here's what the numbers look like when we expand the sample-size out to the first three rounds of the draft (99 selections):
Five stars (6.1): 16
Four stars (6.0): 7
Four stars (5.9): 4
Four stars (5.8): 14
Three stars (5.7) 24
Three stars (5.6) 14
Three stars (5.5) 8
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 2
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 5
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 4.05 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 17.08 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 17.43 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
e. One out of every 14.25 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
f. One out of every 38.30 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
g. One out of every 87.50 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
h. One out of every 302.00 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
i. One out of every 282.34 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 13.62 four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 34.31 three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 258.14 two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
Finally, here's the final breakdown of numbers once you include all seven rounds of the draft:
Five stars (6.1): 20
Four stars (6.0): 12
Four stars (5.9): 17
Four stars (5.8): 37
Three stars (5.7) 41
Three stars (5.6) 39
Three stars (5.5) 33
Two stars (5.4) 13
Two stars (5.3) 6
Two stars (5.2) 11
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 20
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 2.36 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 4.02 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 6.60 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
e. One out of every 8.34 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
f. One out of every 13.75 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
g. One out of every 21.21 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
h. One out of every 63.58 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
i. One out of every 43.44 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 56.47 two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
No. 3 – A few thoughts on the data …
The success among the truly nationally elite in recruiting and the rest of the pack is stunning. The results among five-star prospects in this year’s draft (16 in the first three rounds!), along with the high four-stars was so overwhelming that the reality is that Rivals probably needs to develop a 6th star, with the five-stars getting bumps up to six-stars and the four-stars that make up the rest of the top national 30-60 prospects getting bumped up to-five-stars. Nothing about the data from the last few drafts suggests that the mid- and low- four-star recruits aren’t really on the level of the four-star brothers they share a family name with. The success rate of those two recruiting groups is as close to guaranteed success as it gets in college football recruiting.
b. I’ve said it about 1,000 times over the last few years, but my favorite recruiting tier in the Rivals ranking is the high three-star (5.7) recruit and the data this year showed that as it relates to producing top-end NFL Draft prospects, it outperformed the more celebrated mid- and low-four stars.
Why is this happening? I have a few theories that when added together might help explain why the high three-star prospect is the most underrated commodity in all of recruiting:
* In an era when the recruits being ranked are as closely evaluated as ever before, many of the players in this category end up being players that analysts really like, but haven’t scouted enough in person to have a truer evaluation.
* A lot of kids that have a major issue or two (injuries, academics, off-the-field, etc..) get slotted into this category, at least that’s what history often suggests.
* A lot of very raw prospects that are unrefined players also get slotted here.
* It’s a great recruiting landing spot for the 5-star player that possesses three-star physical tools or vice versa..
Regardless, one of these days more and more people that follow recruiting will start to follow my lead, and they’ll begin to love the high-three star ranking.
As it relates to producing NFL-level talent, it simply doesn’t take a back seat very often to the low- and mid-four stars and what it means at its most basic term is that there’s actually not much difference between a prospect that’s ranked No. 101 versus a guy that is ranked No. 400 or even No. 700.
No. 4 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Big XII sends at least one team to the football playoffs this year?
(Buy) I’m a big believer in the team TCU is bringing back. That team reminds me a lot of the 2009 Longhorn team and I think Gary Patterson’s biggest issue with his group will be managing a team that has determined almost anything short of perfection is failure. It’s a tough way to go through a five-month journey beginning in August, but that team is loaded and it has a monster returning at quarterback in a year when the Big 12 otherwise lacks monsters at the most important position on the field.
BUY or SELL: Rockets beat the Clippers?
(Buy) The Spurs took at least two pounds of flesh from the Clippers, I think this is the series that James Harden flashes MVP credentials throughout and Dwight Howard is quietly performing like the best center in basketball. Rockets in five, unless Chris Paul’s injury status is a minor storyline.
BUY or SELL: Texas football is in a better place this season than last but will have a worse record?
(Buy) See section No. 1. Charlie Strong’s first full class is arriving this year and that means that the record doesn’t matter as much as him having his kids in the program does. Even at 5-7, the gunk from the program is being removed at a rapid rate.
BUY or SELL: Given that Clarington is on the roster next season, he can be highly impactful on the field as a true freshman?
(Buy) That’s still a given that you should give with restraint (core GPA is the biggest concern), but if he’s cleared by the Clearinghouse, I think there’s a chance he starts by week three of the season. His talent level and upside is simply superior to what’s currently in front of him on the depth chart.
BUY or SELL: Johnathan Gray gets drafted in the top three rounds next year?
(Sell) He’s going to have a big season and go in the fourth or fifth round.
BUY or SELL: The signature win this season will not occur until the bowl season?
(Sell) Charlie will get him one somewhere. Just a hunch and one coming from a guy that thinks Charlie would take 8-4 all day right now if he could. A 6-6 record is no sure thing, but I think they’ll have a moment somewhere on the schedule.
BUY or SELL: Shaka Smart makes the Final Four before Charlie Strong makes the playoffs?
(Buy) That seems like the safer bet at this juncture.
BUY or SELL: Randy Gregory goes his career with no drug related suspensions?
(Sell) But, I think he makes it through this season with the help of the Cowboys and he might be in a position to be Rookie of the Year in the process. If he was Marcus Mariota in terms of perceived character, he might have been a top five prospect in the draft. The Cowboys need someone to get to the quarterback, especially with Greg Hardy suspended for much of the season, so playing time is going to be available from the jump.
BUY or SELL: Matthew Merrick is on campus this fall?
(Buy) If he’s capable of being the answer, getting him on campus sooner rather than later makes sense, and if his offer proves to have been a mistake, the program will be one step closer to being free from it. That’s pretty much the reality of what takes place in major college football. It’s often sink or swim to another option in another town. Plus, the program can still take two quarterbacks in the 2016 class if it wants, if it needs to after seeing the two freshmen up-close.
BUY or SELL: Texas will have at least one offensive player taken in the 2016 NFL Draft?
(Buy) See above. Gray will be drafted. So might Sedrick Flowers. Hell, so might Marcus Johnson.
BUY or SELL: Heard is the starter by the time conference play starts?
(Buy) Discuss ...
No. 5 – A new reality as a self-loathing Cowboys fan …
As much as I'm prone to grumble about the drafting history of my favorite NFL team over the last 20 years (I can still waste an hour over the thought of the Quincy Carter
selection/evaluation), the truth is that the team’s track record in recent years at the top of the draft has been pretty damn good.
Since 2010, the first round has produced Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Morris Claiborne, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin.
That’s four out of five direct hits.
While the draft results can still provide much better results, I have to grudgingly admit that the team is doing a better job early in the draft. Mix that in with the knowledge that Jerry Jones is all but eliminated from the process as GM in name only, and you’ve got a franchise that is leaning on its true football people for the biggest draft decisions.
Knowing those things, I’m pretty comfortable in projecting first-round pick Byron Jones as a guy that can contribute right away somewhere in the secondary, thus making that unit an improved group. I’m also comfortable with the risk of Dallas going all-in in the second round with a guy that has true first-round talent, especially at the back end of the second round in a fairly weak draft.
I’ll give Dallas a B+ for getting two potential defensive starters in its first two picks in late positions, but outside of that, I guess I have to trust the Dallas braintrust, something I couldn’t do with Jerry really running the show and something I’m still not sure I can truly sign off on.
Still, Jerry’s removal from the process is a win, and even if I can’t completely trust, I’m willing to keep an open mind moving forward.
No. 6 – About the Texans...
Rock solid.
It’s too bad the Texans won as many games as they did a season ago because I’m not sure the team was in a position to land a true game-changer in the first-round. Don’t get me wrong, I think Kevin Johnson is going to be an immediate u[grade in the secondary, but I don’t know that he is going to develop into a top 16-type corner within the league, which would make him in the top 25-percent among starting players at his position. I kind of feel the same way with Benardrick McKinney. He seems like a guy that will represent an upgrade at inside linebacker, but does that translate to being a plus-starter? I guess we’ll find out
Like almost everyone, I really liked the pick of Jaelen Strong in the third round and think he’ll be the third member of the class that contributes right away.
Outside of that, I kind of like Kenny Hilliard as a bruising tailback option, but I’m not exactly doing cartwheels about the rest. Although it’s a little apples and oranges, I pretty much feel the
same way about the drafts produced by the Texans and Cowboys. Perhaps the only difference is that Dallas’ second-round pick has a higher ceiling than anyone else drafted by either team, but the risk component is legit.
No. 7 – NFL Draft scattershots …
… The Eagles had Jordan Hicks rated as their top three-down linebacker in the draft. Translation: He’s expected to play a lot this season. After everything he went through in his career, it was nice to see him rewarded on day two of the draft. The Eagles got a really good football player.
… I’ve always been a strong defender of Mykkele Thompson’s NFL upside, so I’ll admit to putting aside my hatred for the Giants because it meant that all of his hard work in the last year under Charlie Strong had paid off. Imagine that kid with four years under Strong and Vance Bedford, instead of just 11 months.
… The Dallas Cowboys didn’t merely draft Texas tight end Geoff Swaim, but they gave up a sixth round pick in 2016 for the chance to jump back into a round in which they had already made two selections to make the grab of the Bryan Harsin recruit. I’m completely fascinated by what happens next for him all the way through training camp. I mean … wow.
… I won’t be rooting for anyone to make a roster in the NFL this summer more than Nate Boyer. That guy’s life is going to be a movie very, very soon. There’s no one else in professional sports quite like him.
… Not sure I understood undrafted Malcolm Brown signing with the Rams. I wonder if the Cowboys had any interest ...
… I loved the Jacksonville Draft. That has to represent three of the best days that franchise has ever had.
… Two of the first three players from the state of Texas to be drafted in the first and second round were former five-star prospects (Malcom Brown and Mario Edwards).
… Every member of the 2010 Texas A&M offensive line class was drafted by an NFL team with the selection of Jarvis Harrison by the Jets in the fifth round, with three of them going in the first round. Mike Sherman is an offensive line evaluating god.
… I loved what New England did in the draft to address its defensive line concerns. Arkansas defensive end Trey Flowers in the fourth round was one of my favorite selections on day three.
… Blake Bell in the fourth round actually happened. I saw it with my own eyes and checked to verify online at least 10 times.
… Speaking of fourth-round steals, I love Cleveland’s pick of Duke Johnson and I believe that one broke hearts in the Dallas War Room, but it was silly to think Duke would make it to 90 overall.
… The best thing that ever happened to Ty Montgomery’s ability to earn a big-time second contract was being drafted by the team that pays Aaron Rodgers to play for it. He’ll be a fantasy factor by the time we get to October … at the latest.
… Melvin Gordon will be a top 24 selection in fantasy drafts by the time we get to mid-August.
… All 32 teams disagreed with me about the value of Boise State running back Jay Ajayi and a lot of that had to do with the “bone on bone” description from his medical charts, but I thought the Dolphins got a steal. Perhaps his career will be a short one, but he has a chance to difference maker in the immediate future.
No. 8 – It was exactly what we thought it would be …
If you’ve paid attention to the things I’ve said and written for the last couple of months, you’ll know that I had Super Fight 2015 covered like a glove.
As expected, Floyd Mayweather won a 12-round decision by margins of 118-110 and 116-12, which means that he dominated the fight.
Among the other elements of the fight that were correctly projected was the fact that Manny Pacquiao was a shot fighter that didn’t possess anywhere near the once-elite physical tools that made him a true Hall of Fame fighter and the reality that the fight would prove to be a disaster among casual sports fans that paid $100 to see Floyd Mayweather do what Floyd Mayweather does.
What I completely misunderstood going in was just how much Manny was in this for the paycheck. All the smiles, selfies and thank yous to Floyd before the fight made it pretty clear that Manny was in this for the cash, which is why he lied about an alleged month-long shoulder injury that he sprung on the Nevada Boxing Commission in the final hours before the fight.
But, the selfie that he took with Freddie Roach as he was coming to the ring?
Are you kidding me?
Making it worse, he lacked class in challenging the result and then complaining about the injury after having never mentioned it in any of the dozens of opportunities he had while selling the fight. Mayweather couldn’t have been any classier in the aftermath to him and Manny had the audacity to pretend that we didn’t just witness a cash grab.
Mayweather was on the business trip of his life and Manny was Rocky Balboa training for the first fight with Clubber Lang. He was there to take pictures with blondes and play the role of white knight that Mayweather needed to create a superfight.
The only difference is that there isn’t a Apollo Creed around to save Manny’s boxing days, which means he’ll just have to survive the coming days while doing snow angels in a $100,000,000-ish payday.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… The highlight of the night from the super fight that wasn’t so super.
… Damn, Jamie Foxx … what the hell was THAT?
… Chris Paul had a series for the ages against the Spurs, but I think the Rockets eliminate what’s left of L.A. in five games.
… Game sevens really don’t get better than what the Spurs/Clippers gave us on Saturday night. It took Chris Paul making a last-second heave while looking like Fred Sanford on his way to see Elizabeth to eliminate the world champions. If that was indeed the end of an era (Tim Duncan’s final game), there’s no shame in that departure. That was a man’s playoff series and someone had to be the loser.
… I didn’t see a second of the Kentucky Derby. I feel like I’m going to survive.
No. 10 - And finally…
Apologies for the delay in this week's column, but every once in a while I need to punch the time-card on being a quality dad, husband and uncle. Happy birthday to my nieces (Ava and Bria), who shared a birthday event in Magnolia on Sunday. Here's a picture of Hendrix and Haven, along with their aunt Aaron (my wife's sister) .
While the mind tells the eyes that Strong is one of the best coaches in the country, the eyes tell the mind that the Longhorns didn’t win any more games in 2014 with Strong than they would have with Mack Brown.
While the mind tells the eyes that Strong’s recruiting will be just fine in 2016, based in large part on the finish to the 2015 recruiting season, the eyes tell the mind that very few difference-makers in the 2016 recruiting class are leaning towards Texas and even fewer from that group are offensive linemen.
With a 2015 season looming, my own personal instincts tell me that the mind and the eyes of almost every Longhorn fan will continue to do battle in the coming months, as Strong directs a program that’s not quite ready for prime-time. The patience of the program will be tested along the way, as the thirst for winning reaches its sixth long year in the desert.
When asked by Orangebloods all over the globe whether I believe Strong will not only survive the initial makeover of a program in desperate need of one, but also if he’ll win championships, a cloudy forecast is about all I have to offer. There are some things a person can know and this simply isn’t one of them because the complexities for success are filled with too many unknowns 16 months into this new era in Austin.
Still, some of the knowns that have been revealed over those 16 months give real reason for optimism and one in particular was on full display over the weekend … Charlie Strong can spot talent and he can absolutely develop the hell out of it.
The data is simply stunning.
A little further down in this week’s column (section II), you’ll see the data from this year’s NFL Draft that illustrates the raw value of each star ranking, but for the purpose of enlightening you on the numbers that will be of greatest interest to most of you, know these very basics for the moment based on the data from this year’s results.
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
While Strong was at Louisville, he averaged 16 three-star prospects each year from 2010-2012, which means that the national average suggests that 1.14 players from each of those classes would emerge at some point as a drafted NFL prospect.
All told, seven players that arrived as three-star prospects under Strong were drafted this
weekend, which means that on the average, one out of every 2.28 three-star prospects recruited by Strong was eventually developed into an NFL drafted prospects.
Basically, Strong spots and develops three-star prospects better than the rest of the nation develops four-star prospects by a considerable margin and nearly as well as the rest of the nation develops five-star prospects.
Of course, development is only one part of the equation that will determine whether Strong achieves ultimate success, but it’s a damn big part of that equation. Does he need a quarterback? Yes. Does his in-game decision-making need to be sharper? Probably. Might a little more emphasis on analytics prove to be helpful? It can’t hurt.
Perhaps he’s the most imperfect perfect coach in the country, kind of a defensive coaching version of Les Miles without the Les Miles, but Strong has few peers anywhere when it comes to helping kids reach their athletic ceilings.
How long will it take?
Probably longer than you’d prefer, but every part of his background and history suggests that if you give him enough time, he’s going to produce a type of player that can play with the best of the best, regardless of the stars on their Rivals profile page. You don’t have to believe me … it’s pretty much science.
No. 2 – Holy five-stars! Breaking down the NFL Draft through recruiting lenses ...
For the first time in the history of this particular column, I’ll begin a section with a Brittany Spears quote.
Oops … I did it again.
For the third straight year, I found myself logging the entire NFL Draft with the purpose of better understanding what’s working and what’s not working as it relates to developing players at the collegiate level from the state of Texas and the entire nation as a whole.
I’ll get to the state of Texas a little later this week because I want the initial focus to be on the nationwide results.
Before we get started, a couple of notes:
1. There are currently 127 FBS programs playing college football in 2014, which means that there are 10,795 scholarship players in college football if every school has maxed out its 85-man scholarship limit.
2. From 2010-2012 (the three classes that made up the 2014 NFL Draft Class almost exclusively), Rivals.com rated on the average 3,754.67 players per year (including JUCO and prep schools), with the average star distribution breakdown looking like this:
Five stars (6.1): 28.67
Four stars (6.0): 28.33
Four stars (5.9): 68.33
Four stars (5.8): 244
Three stars (5.7) 342
Three stars (5.6) 536.33
Three stars (5.5) 700
Two stars (5.4) 750
Two stars (5.3) 458
Two stars (5.2) 508
Two stars (5.1) 56.67
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 34.33
With those numbers serving as the foundation of the average Rivals.com recruiting class numbers over a three-year window, let's break down what the numbers look like over the course of all seven rounds of the NFL Draft this year, beginning with a look at the numbers in the first round:
Five stars (6.1): 8
Four stars (6.0): 4
Four stars (5.9): 2
Four stars (5.8): 3
Three stars (5.7) 8
Three stars (5.6) 3
Three stars (5.5) 1
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 1
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 0
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 0
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers (last year’s number is bolded and in parenthesis):
a. One out of every 3.58 (7.33) five-star (6.1) prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 7.08 (19.50) top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 34.17 (20.92) mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first
round.
d. One out of every 81.33 (35.00) low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
e. One out of every 42.75 (54.17) top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
f. One out of every 178.78 (131.17) mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
g. One out of every 700.0 (329.34) low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
h. One out of every 302.0 (545.00) top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
i. Zero out of every 564.67 (655.00) mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 (250.00) low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round
In a more generic sense, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 3.58 five-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 37.85 four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 131.53 three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
d. One out of every 451.75 two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
Here's what the numbers look like when we expand the sample-size out to the first three rounds of the draft (99 selections):
Five stars (6.1): 16
Four stars (6.0): 7
Four stars (5.9): 4
Four stars (5.8): 14
Three stars (5.7) 24
Three stars (5.6) 14
Three stars (5.5) 8
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 2
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 5
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 4.05 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 17.08 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 17.43 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
e. One out of every 14.25 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
f. One out of every 38.30 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
g. One out of every 87.50 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
h. One out of every 302.00 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
i. One out of every 282.34 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 13.62 four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 34.31 three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 258.14 two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
Finally, here's the final breakdown of numbers once you include all seven rounds of the draft:
Five stars (6.1): 20
Four stars (6.0): 12
Four stars (5.9): 17
Four stars (5.8): 37
Three stars (5.7) 41
Three stars (5.6) 39
Three stars (5.5) 33
Two stars (5.4) 13
Two stars (5.3) 6
Two stars (5.2) 11
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 20
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 2.36 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 4.02 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 6.60 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
e. One out of every 8.34 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
f. One out of every 13.75 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
g. One out of every 21.21 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
h. One out of every 63.58 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
i. One out of every 43.44 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 56.47 two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
No. 3 – A few thoughts on the data …
The success among the truly nationally elite in recruiting and the rest of the pack is stunning. The results among five-star prospects in this year’s draft (16 in the first three rounds!), along with the high four-stars was so overwhelming that the reality is that Rivals probably needs to develop a 6th star, with the five-stars getting bumps up to six-stars and the four-stars that make up the rest of the top national 30-60 prospects getting bumped up to-five-stars. Nothing about the data from the last few drafts suggests that the mid- and low- four-star recruits aren’t really on the level of the four-star brothers they share a family name with. The success rate of those two recruiting groups is as close to guaranteed success as it gets in college football recruiting.
b. I’ve said it about 1,000 times over the last few years, but my favorite recruiting tier in the Rivals ranking is the high three-star (5.7) recruit and the data this year showed that as it relates to producing top-end NFL Draft prospects, it outperformed the more celebrated mid- and low-four stars.
Why is this happening? I have a few theories that when added together might help explain why the high three-star prospect is the most underrated commodity in all of recruiting:
* In an era when the recruits being ranked are as closely evaluated as ever before, many of the players in this category end up being players that analysts really like, but haven’t scouted enough in person to have a truer evaluation.
* A lot of kids that have a major issue or two (injuries, academics, off-the-field, etc..) get slotted into this category, at least that’s what history often suggests.
* A lot of very raw prospects that are unrefined players also get slotted here.
* It’s a great recruiting landing spot for the 5-star player that possesses three-star physical tools or vice versa..
Regardless, one of these days more and more people that follow recruiting will start to follow my lead, and they’ll begin to love the high-three star ranking.
As it relates to producing NFL-level talent, it simply doesn’t take a back seat very often to the low- and mid-four stars and what it means at its most basic term is that there’s actually not much difference between a prospect that’s ranked No. 101 versus a guy that is ranked No. 400 or even No. 700.
No. 4 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Big XII sends at least one team to the football playoffs this year?
(Buy) I’m a big believer in the team TCU is bringing back. That team reminds me a lot of the 2009 Longhorn team and I think Gary Patterson’s biggest issue with his group will be managing a team that has determined almost anything short of perfection is failure. It’s a tough way to go through a five-month journey beginning in August, but that team is loaded and it has a monster returning at quarterback in a year when the Big 12 otherwise lacks monsters at the most important position on the field.
BUY or SELL: Rockets beat the Clippers?
(Buy) The Spurs took at least two pounds of flesh from the Clippers, I think this is the series that James Harden flashes MVP credentials throughout and Dwight Howard is quietly performing like the best center in basketball. Rockets in five, unless Chris Paul’s injury status is a minor storyline.
BUY or SELL: Texas football is in a better place this season than last but will have a worse record?
(Buy) See section No. 1. Charlie Strong’s first full class is arriving this year and that means that the record doesn’t matter as much as him having his kids in the program does. Even at 5-7, the gunk from the program is being removed at a rapid rate.
BUY or SELL: Given that Clarington is on the roster next season, he can be highly impactful on the field as a true freshman?
(Buy) That’s still a given that you should give with restraint (core GPA is the biggest concern), but if he’s cleared by the Clearinghouse, I think there’s a chance he starts by week three of the season. His talent level and upside is simply superior to what’s currently in front of him on the depth chart.
BUY or SELL: Johnathan Gray gets drafted in the top three rounds next year?
(Sell) He’s going to have a big season and go in the fourth or fifth round.
BUY or SELL: The signature win this season will not occur until the bowl season?
(Sell) Charlie will get him one somewhere. Just a hunch and one coming from a guy that thinks Charlie would take 8-4 all day right now if he could. A 6-6 record is no sure thing, but I think they’ll have a moment somewhere on the schedule.
BUY or SELL: Shaka Smart makes the Final Four before Charlie Strong makes the playoffs?
(Buy) That seems like the safer bet at this juncture.
BUY or SELL: Randy Gregory goes his career with no drug related suspensions?
(Sell) But, I think he makes it through this season with the help of the Cowboys and he might be in a position to be Rookie of the Year in the process. If he was Marcus Mariota in terms of perceived character, he might have been a top five prospect in the draft. The Cowboys need someone to get to the quarterback, especially with Greg Hardy suspended for much of the season, so playing time is going to be available from the jump.
BUY or SELL: Matthew Merrick is on campus this fall?
(Buy) If he’s capable of being the answer, getting him on campus sooner rather than later makes sense, and if his offer proves to have been a mistake, the program will be one step closer to being free from it. That’s pretty much the reality of what takes place in major college football. It’s often sink or swim to another option in another town. Plus, the program can still take two quarterbacks in the 2016 class if it wants, if it needs to after seeing the two freshmen up-close.
BUY or SELL: Texas will have at least one offensive player taken in the 2016 NFL Draft?
(Buy) See above. Gray will be drafted. So might Sedrick Flowers. Hell, so might Marcus Johnson.
BUY or SELL: Heard is the starter by the time conference play starts?
(Buy) Discuss ...
No. 5 – A new reality as a self-loathing Cowboys fan …
As much as I'm prone to grumble about the drafting history of my favorite NFL team over the last 20 years (I can still waste an hour over the thought of the Quincy Carter
selection/evaluation), the truth is that the team’s track record in recent years at the top of the draft has been pretty damn good.
Since 2010, the first round has produced Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Morris Claiborne, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin.
That’s four out of five direct hits.
While the draft results can still provide much better results, I have to grudgingly admit that the team is doing a better job early in the draft. Mix that in with the knowledge that Jerry Jones is all but eliminated from the process as GM in name only, and you’ve got a franchise that is leaning on its true football people for the biggest draft decisions.
Knowing those things, I’m pretty comfortable in projecting first-round pick Byron Jones as a guy that can contribute right away somewhere in the secondary, thus making that unit an improved group. I’m also comfortable with the risk of Dallas going all-in in the second round with a guy that has true first-round talent, especially at the back end of the second round in a fairly weak draft.
I’ll give Dallas a B+ for getting two potential defensive starters in its first two picks in late positions, but outside of that, I guess I have to trust the Dallas braintrust, something I couldn’t do with Jerry really running the show and something I’m still not sure I can truly sign off on.
Still, Jerry’s removal from the process is a win, and even if I can’t completely trust, I’m willing to keep an open mind moving forward.
No. 6 – About the Texans...
Rock solid.
It’s too bad the Texans won as many games as they did a season ago because I’m not sure the team was in a position to land a true game-changer in the first-round. Don’t get me wrong, I think Kevin Johnson is going to be an immediate u[grade in the secondary, but I don’t know that he is going to develop into a top 16-type corner within the league, which would make him in the top 25-percent among starting players at his position. I kind of feel the same way with Benardrick McKinney. He seems like a guy that will represent an upgrade at inside linebacker, but does that translate to being a plus-starter? I guess we’ll find out
Like almost everyone, I really liked the pick of Jaelen Strong in the third round and think he’ll be the third member of the class that contributes right away.
Outside of that, I kind of like Kenny Hilliard as a bruising tailback option, but I’m not exactly doing cartwheels about the rest. Although it’s a little apples and oranges, I pretty much feel the
same way about the drafts produced by the Texans and Cowboys. Perhaps the only difference is that Dallas’ second-round pick has a higher ceiling than anyone else drafted by either team, but the risk component is legit.
No. 7 – NFL Draft scattershots …
… The Eagles had Jordan Hicks rated as their top three-down linebacker in the draft. Translation: He’s expected to play a lot this season. After everything he went through in his career, it was nice to see him rewarded on day two of the draft. The Eagles got a really good football player.
… I’ve always been a strong defender of Mykkele Thompson’s NFL upside, so I’ll admit to putting aside my hatred for the Giants because it meant that all of his hard work in the last year under Charlie Strong had paid off. Imagine that kid with four years under Strong and Vance Bedford, instead of just 11 months.
… The Dallas Cowboys didn’t merely draft Texas tight end Geoff Swaim, but they gave up a sixth round pick in 2016 for the chance to jump back into a round in which they had already made two selections to make the grab of the Bryan Harsin recruit. I’m completely fascinated by what happens next for him all the way through training camp. I mean … wow.
… I won’t be rooting for anyone to make a roster in the NFL this summer more than Nate Boyer. That guy’s life is going to be a movie very, very soon. There’s no one else in professional sports quite like him.
… Not sure I understood undrafted Malcolm Brown signing with the Rams. I wonder if the Cowboys had any interest ...
… I loved the Jacksonville Draft. That has to represent three of the best days that franchise has ever had.
… Two of the first three players from the state of Texas to be drafted in the first and second round were former five-star prospects (Malcom Brown and Mario Edwards).
… Every member of the 2010 Texas A&M offensive line class was drafted by an NFL team with the selection of Jarvis Harrison by the Jets in the fifth round, with three of them going in the first round. Mike Sherman is an offensive line evaluating god.
… I loved what New England did in the draft to address its defensive line concerns. Arkansas defensive end Trey Flowers in the fourth round was one of my favorite selections on day three.
… Blake Bell in the fourth round actually happened. I saw it with my own eyes and checked to verify online at least 10 times.
… Speaking of fourth-round steals, I love Cleveland’s pick of Duke Johnson and I believe that one broke hearts in the Dallas War Room, but it was silly to think Duke would make it to 90 overall.
… The best thing that ever happened to Ty Montgomery’s ability to earn a big-time second contract was being drafted by the team that pays Aaron Rodgers to play for it. He’ll be a fantasy factor by the time we get to October … at the latest.
… Melvin Gordon will be a top 24 selection in fantasy drafts by the time we get to mid-August.
… All 32 teams disagreed with me about the value of Boise State running back Jay Ajayi and a lot of that had to do with the “bone on bone” description from his medical charts, but I thought the Dolphins got a steal. Perhaps his career will be a short one, but he has a chance to difference maker in the immediate future.
No. 8 – It was exactly what we thought it would be …
If you’ve paid attention to the things I’ve said and written for the last couple of months, you’ll know that I had Super Fight 2015 covered like a glove.
As expected, Floyd Mayweather won a 12-round decision by margins of 118-110 and 116-12, which means that he dominated the fight.
Among the other elements of the fight that were correctly projected was the fact that Manny Pacquiao was a shot fighter that didn’t possess anywhere near the once-elite physical tools that made him a true Hall of Fame fighter and the reality that the fight would prove to be a disaster among casual sports fans that paid $100 to see Floyd Mayweather do what Floyd Mayweather does.
What I completely misunderstood going in was just how much Manny was in this for the paycheck. All the smiles, selfies and thank yous to Floyd before the fight made it pretty clear that Manny was in this for the cash, which is why he lied about an alleged month-long shoulder injury that he sprung on the Nevada Boxing Commission in the final hours before the fight.
But, the selfie that he took with Freddie Roach as he was coming to the ring?
Are you kidding me?
Making it worse, he lacked class in challenging the result and then complaining about the injury after having never mentioned it in any of the dozens of opportunities he had while selling the fight. Mayweather couldn’t have been any classier in the aftermath to him and Manny had the audacity to pretend that we didn’t just witness a cash grab.
Mayweather was on the business trip of his life and Manny was Rocky Balboa training for the first fight with Clubber Lang. He was there to take pictures with blondes and play the role of white knight that Mayweather needed to create a superfight.
The only difference is that there isn’t a Apollo Creed around to save Manny’s boxing days, which means he’ll just have to survive the coming days while doing snow angels in a $100,000,000-ish payday.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… The highlight of the night from the super fight that wasn’t so super.
… Damn, Jamie Foxx … what the hell was THAT?
… Chris Paul had a series for the ages against the Spurs, but I think the Rockets eliminate what’s left of L.A. in five games.
… Game sevens really don’t get better than what the Spurs/Clippers gave us on Saturday night. It took Chris Paul making a last-second heave while looking like Fred Sanford on his way to see Elizabeth to eliminate the world champions. If that was indeed the end of an era (Tim Duncan’s final game), there’s no shame in that departure. That was a man’s playoff series and someone had to be the loser.
… I didn’t see a second of the Kentucky Derby. I feel like I’m going to survive.
No. 10 - And finally…
Apologies for the delay in this week's column, but every once in a while I need to punch the time-card on being a quality dad, husband and uncle. Happy birthday to my nieces (Ava and Bria), who shared a birthday event in Magnolia on Sunday. Here's a picture of Hendrix and Haven, along with their aunt Aaron (my wife's sister) .
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