Here's a good post from Bierce over at 247 (his post is in bold).
I agree with him on a couple things. 1) The bubble is weak as hell. Matter of fact, the tournament participants are going to weaker than usual. It's been a weird year in basketball. Like I've been saying, after about 15 teams college basketball is a complete mess. There will be a lot of double digit loss teams in the tournament. 2) Texas hasn't even been close to the bubble yet. Our RPI is entirely too good. We don't have a bad loss and we actually have a few pretty decent wins. This can change of course, but it will take a monumental collapse by Texas to not make the tournament. There really aren't bad losses in the Big 12 (excluding Tech) and every win is an RPI boost opportunity. People get entirely too caught up in conference record, overall record, etc. The first thing the NCAA selection committee looks at is RPI.
"It's a little early, but I have a good excuse for starting his a week earlier than I usually do, and I promised I'd start this thread today. I'll just give a quick overview of the conferences and say Texas is quite safe for now under the Pomeroy + RPI method that is a very accurate and simple to do forecast.
Syracuse recently announced a self-imposed one year post-season ban. This is the sort of thing that makes me laugh because Syracuse sucks this year, and it is imposing the ban for violations it first reported in 2007 but the ongoing investigation showed violations continuing through 2012. So. . . all those years it was good enough to make the tournament and knew it was breaking rules? Couldn't have self-imposed then, now could it? No, just wait until the chances of an NCAA bid are smaller than Orange Ethics, then "do the right thing," which by the way is something that totally screws over players who could have opted to leave the program without suffering the transfer penalty, if the ban had been announced over the summer. Imagine the impact Rakeem Christmas could have had for Michigan State or any other team with a thin and short front line. Syracuse is currently 78th in Pomeroy and 69th in rpi, and it just needed two turnovers by Va Tech in the last 26 seconds to eke out a 72-70 win at home against the 1-8 Hokies and just lost to a pretty iffy Pitt team.
Right now I'm just going to run down the conferences that have absolutely no shot at more than one team. After today's play I'll start putting together the Pomeroy + RPI list that very nearly approximates the teams that will get at large bids. As a general matter, Pomeroy + RPI of 85-95 is bubble land. Texas is very safe right now at 57. (Syracuse is 147--see what I mean about it having no chance at the tourney?)
The "Great West" conference disappeared, so all Division I basketball conferences get an auto-bid. That's 32 of the 68 spots available. I think the Ivy League is the only conference that uses the regular season to decide the auto-bid.
The one bid conferences[/B]
Thirteen conferences lack any team that could conceivably get an at large bid:
SWAC (the worst conference; Tx So beat MSU but lost to two 300+ teams)
MEAC (NC Central is a decent team, but 0-4 against top 100)
WAC (NM State has a single top 100 victim-#90 UTEP)
America East (and now I'm tired of giving any details about the best team)
Atlantic Sun
Northeast
Big South
Patriot
Summit
Sun Belt (Ga. St. is mid 80s in both Pom/RPI but no good opponents left)
CAA
Ivy
Big West
The conferences with at least one credible chance for an at large bid[/B]
Eight conferences have at least one team approaching the bubble, but the leader might or might not survive losing in conference tournament (Ga. State couldn't survive). I won't plug in numbers just yet, but Pomeroy loves SFA and rpi likes the rest. Few of these teams have chances to move up-the exceptions being teams in the Mid-American and C-USA, where there are multiple top 100 teams remaining.
Southland-SFA. Pity it didn't beat No. Iowa during the marathon.
Big Sky--E. Wash. beat Indiana but best other win was @ 149 San Fran)
Southern--Wofford won @NCSt but it couldn't survive a conf. tourney loss)
Ohio Valley-Murray State
C-USA-Old Dominion (beat VCU, LSU, Richmond), La Tech, UTEP, W. Kentucky
Horizon-Green Bay, Valpo
Mid-Am-Buffalo, Bowling Green, Toledo
Metro Atlantic-Iona
Conferences with no-brainers[/B]
Eleven conferences have at least one no brainer
Big 12
Big Ten
ACC
Big East
Pac 12
SEC
West Coast
A-10
American
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
Assuming the 21 conferences in the first two lists above get only a total of 22 teams in (and that might be generous), that will leave 46 spots for the power 5 plus the strong mid-majors.
Here's an example of a bubble-ish team. UCLA is 43 in rpi and 51 in Pomeroy. It is 14-10, 6-5. It is 4-9 against Pomeroy top 100, 5-9 against RPI top 100. It is 3-9 in away/neutral games. It has a signature win over Utah (5, 12). It has two wins over a sliding Stanford (30, 44). It has one loss to a team 100+ (though Cal might sneak back into top 100 rpi with the win.) UCLA was in the first four out in Bracket matrix and will slide to next four out when all the brackets update with the weekend games.
St. John's is 15-8, 4-6. It is 2-4 in away games. It is 6-6 against top 100 with Providence being the closest thing to a signature win. It has two losses to teams outside the top 100. It is 40 Pomeroy, 49 RPI, and on the 11 line in the lastest Bracket Matrix.
That's how weak the bubble is."
I agree with him on a couple things. 1) The bubble is weak as hell. Matter of fact, the tournament participants are going to weaker than usual. It's been a weird year in basketball. Like I've been saying, after about 15 teams college basketball is a complete mess. There will be a lot of double digit loss teams in the tournament. 2) Texas hasn't even been close to the bubble yet. Our RPI is entirely too good. We don't have a bad loss and we actually have a few pretty decent wins. This can change of course, but it will take a monumental collapse by Texas to not make the tournament. There really aren't bad losses in the Big 12 (excluding Tech) and every win is an RPI boost opportunity. People get entirely too caught up in conference record, overall record, etc. The first thing the NCAA selection committee looks at is RPI.
"It's a little early, but I have a good excuse for starting his a week earlier than I usually do, and I promised I'd start this thread today. I'll just give a quick overview of the conferences and say Texas is quite safe for now under the Pomeroy + RPI method that is a very accurate and simple to do forecast.
Syracuse recently announced a self-imposed one year post-season ban. This is the sort of thing that makes me laugh because Syracuse sucks this year, and it is imposing the ban for violations it first reported in 2007 but the ongoing investigation showed violations continuing through 2012. So. . . all those years it was good enough to make the tournament and knew it was breaking rules? Couldn't have self-imposed then, now could it? No, just wait until the chances of an NCAA bid are smaller than Orange Ethics, then "do the right thing," which by the way is something that totally screws over players who could have opted to leave the program without suffering the transfer penalty, if the ban had been announced over the summer. Imagine the impact Rakeem Christmas could have had for Michigan State or any other team with a thin and short front line. Syracuse is currently 78th in Pomeroy and 69th in rpi, and it just needed two turnovers by Va Tech in the last 26 seconds to eke out a 72-70 win at home against the 1-8 Hokies and just lost to a pretty iffy Pitt team.
Right now I'm just going to run down the conferences that have absolutely no shot at more than one team. After today's play I'll start putting together the Pomeroy + RPI list that very nearly approximates the teams that will get at large bids. As a general matter, Pomeroy + RPI of 85-95 is bubble land. Texas is very safe right now at 57. (Syracuse is 147--see what I mean about it having no chance at the tourney?)
The "Great West" conference disappeared, so all Division I basketball conferences get an auto-bid. That's 32 of the 68 spots available. I think the Ivy League is the only conference that uses the regular season to decide the auto-bid.
The one bid conferences[/B]
Thirteen conferences lack any team that could conceivably get an at large bid:
SWAC (the worst conference; Tx So beat MSU but lost to two 300+ teams)
MEAC (NC Central is a decent team, but 0-4 against top 100)
WAC (NM State has a single top 100 victim-#90 UTEP)
America East (and now I'm tired of giving any details about the best team)
Atlantic Sun
Northeast
Big South
Patriot
Summit
Sun Belt (Ga. St. is mid 80s in both Pom/RPI but no good opponents left)
CAA
Ivy
Big West
The conferences with at least one credible chance for an at large bid[/B]
Eight conferences have at least one team approaching the bubble, but the leader might or might not survive losing in conference tournament (Ga. State couldn't survive). I won't plug in numbers just yet, but Pomeroy loves SFA and rpi likes the rest. Few of these teams have chances to move up-the exceptions being teams in the Mid-American and C-USA, where there are multiple top 100 teams remaining.
Southland-SFA. Pity it didn't beat No. Iowa during the marathon.
Big Sky--E. Wash. beat Indiana but best other win was @ 149 San Fran)
Southern--Wofford won @NCSt but it couldn't survive a conf. tourney loss)
Ohio Valley-Murray State
C-USA-Old Dominion (beat VCU, LSU, Richmond), La Tech, UTEP, W. Kentucky
Horizon-Green Bay, Valpo
Mid-Am-Buffalo, Bowling Green, Toledo
Metro Atlantic-Iona
Conferences with no-brainers[/B]
Eleven conferences have at least one no brainer
Big 12
Big Ten
ACC
Big East
Pac 12
SEC
West Coast
A-10
American
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
Assuming the 21 conferences in the first two lists above get only a total of 22 teams in (and that might be generous), that will leave 46 spots for the power 5 plus the strong mid-majors.
Here's an example of a bubble-ish team. UCLA is 43 in rpi and 51 in Pomeroy. It is 14-10, 6-5. It is 4-9 against Pomeroy top 100, 5-9 against RPI top 100. It is 3-9 in away/neutral games. It has a signature win over Utah (5, 12). It has two wins over a sliding Stanford (30, 44). It has one loss to a team 100+ (though Cal might sneak back into top 100 rpi with the win.) UCLA was in the first four out in Bracket matrix and will slide to next four out when all the brackets update with the weekend games.
St. John's is 15-8, 4-6. It is 2-4 in away games. It is 6-6 against top 100 with Providence being the closest thing to a signature win. It has two losses to teams outside the top 100. It is 40 Pomeroy, 49 RPI, and on the 11 line in the lastest Bracket Matrix.
That's how weak the bubble is."
