Why the overconfidence vs BYU?

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

I have Texas winning 35-17 but that doesn't mean any of us know how this team will come out.

Lots of Jeckyl and Hyde performances in recent years.

Texas is clearly the more talented team by a mile especially offensively but we'll see what happens.

I guess my trust is in Major to get the ball out to his playmakers against a very beat up secondary.

 

[Good.Shepherd]

Humans are terrible at future thinking. We call it the "planning fallacy", but it's a big problem for us.

There's really two ways we make this decision. One is that we use our emotional responses to overwrite what the current data suggests (or to choose to value different data than what most would).

The other way is to try and look at what something really is, unbiased from the emotional responses, and call it as it is.

Most who are calling Texas in a win are calling it as it looks, according to the recent data that we have (flawed though it is earlier in the season).

Anyone who digs back into last season or 5-7 is saying that the right way to make the call is to overwrite the current info for the previous (emotional) take on things.

There's no way to prove one or the other wrong. Generally, I don't buy the emotional arguments (as hard as it is to set it aside when making a guess).

We'll find out Saturday.

 

[Clarence50]

GS, The "current info " is a team that struggled in the first half last week.
IMO We actually looked better in a 45 to zip shutout of NM last year and the Lobos are much better than NMSU.
Posted from wireless.rivals.com[/URL]

 

[Good.Shepherd]

Originally posted by Casis:
GS, The "current info " is a team that struggled in the first half last week.
IMO We actually looked better in a 45 to zip shutout of NM last year and the Lobos are much better than NMSU.
Posted from wireless.rivals.com

And the emotional bias is choosing to weight the slow start above the record setting offensive performance (and the solid defensive performance ALL GAME).

 

[Gaylord_Focker]

Originally posted by Casis:
GS, The "current info " is a team that struggled in the first half last week.
IMO We actually looked better in a 45 to zip shutout of NM last year and the Lobos are much better than NMSU.

Posted from wireless.rivals.com

Thought we looked better this year, though the Lobos were running some hellacious clock.

 

[c'est la vie]

Originally posted by D.X. Bible:
I'm afraid some of you will be sorely surprised and disappointed by how the game unfolds Saturday night in Provo, based on the prevailing sentiment I read on this board. Given Texas' recent struggles against physical, defensive-minded teams (i.e. K State, TCU, etc), I am failing to see where the overconfidence stems from. Is it because BYU lost to Virginia? I'll be the first to say that BYU is not an elite national powerhouse, but then again TCU was not last year either and they punched us in the face. For that matter, OU did the same thing and we folded before the first quarter was over. BYU plays every bit as good, if not better, defensive football than either of those programs right now and they will be sky high on Saturday night in front of their home crowd on national television.

Maybe it's the confidence in Mack's ability to have his teams come out of the gate strong and put teams away early....oh wait. Make no mistake, Mack will have the team in a trance heading into Saturday night's game, completely mystified by the altitude, the crowd, the Mormon tabernacle choir, the Y's on the helmets, etc. It's simply a question of whether Texas' individual athleticism advantage is enough to overcome those factors. But there will be nothing easy about this game, sorry to tell you....

Good point. I'm never going to be confident with a Mack Brown coached team again without a VY on it. However, if we stay away from the great equalizer...turnovers...we have a great chance to cover. BYU will be tough on "D", but if Major has a good game plan to spread them out and exploit their zone, I think we will have successful. If we go in trying to be cute and run reverses while they are staying home in their zone or running into the teeth of a gritty front 6 or 7 front with our shaky OL, then it could be a long night. On the other side of the ball I think Manny's D more than holds it's own. I think this will be a fairly low scoring affair compared to last week, but I do think we easily get the win if we remain mistake free and healthy.

Hook'em

 

[echeese]

Originally posted by Casis:
GS, The "current info " is a team that struggled in the first half last week.
IMO We actually looked better in a 45 to zip shutout of NM last year and the Lobos are much better than NMSU.
Posted from wireless.rivals.com

We moved the ball on our 1st five drives at a 5.5 ypp rate.

Hardly struggling.

the subjective bias on this thread is humorous.

all you nellies wanting to take BYU and 7 points, email me at echeese262@hornfans.com

 

[caliHORNia]

54-28 Texas

 

[hook_em27]

At some point, as a fan, it's more fun to anticipate success rather than failure. ?I just don't see why we, as a fan base, can't embrace this team, even after one game. ?We have talent on offense and defense. ?This team seems locked into the goal of ending this season with a conference championship and a BCS game. ?BYU is an average team with average players. ?I could not care less about the mission work completed by BYU's older roster. ?If that's the measure, then BYU should have championship teams every year because the mission work has always existed in that program. ?We should look forward to winning on Saturday with relative ease. ?It's what a good team would do against an average unit, and in my opinion, we have a good team this year.

It's okay to view the glass as half full. ?The hand wringing by the anti-pumpers makes me laugh. ?

Relax. ?Enjoy the season. ?It goes by too quickly. ?



This post was edited on 9/6 8:22 PM by hook_em27

 

[Clarence50]

Echeese, if you don't think TOs are struggling, I don't know what to tell you.
Your own subjectivity is showing.

 

[Jim DeLoach]

OP has a point. The current group of players have not done well against physical teams. BYU will be very physical. Just get out with a W, forget the style points.
Posted from wireless.rivals.com[/URL]

 

[HalfmileHorn]

OP risks being labeled a 'hater' on this board with such blasphemy ...

 

[echeese]

Originally posted by Casis:
Echeese, if you don't think TOs are struggling, I don't know what to tell you.
Your own subjectivity is showing.

Turnovers are one play mistakes, usually as a result of one player breaking fundamentals.

Had you actually watched the game, you would have seen on the 1st 5 drives where we were supposedly struggling, we were averaging 5.5 yards per play (guess you didn't know what ypp meant, sorry forget my audience sometimes).

This over the course of 26 plays.

Your comment about "struggling" was in reference to the entire team not Davis failing to tuck the football or Ash making a bad read.

I "objectively" watched the game and realized the "mistakes" you claim were "struggles" were actually outliers.

Painting the entire team and our offensive efforts as "struggling" is clear subjective bias or you didn't watch the game or you don't really get the game.

Take your pick.

 

[Clarence50]

Cheese, I get it. I will defer to your superior UTSA degree.
What does averaging 5.5 YPC have to do with anything if you TO the ball ? Sorry, we are struggling IMO.
PS Why do you always have to put someone down as not paying attn or not being very smart. Just shows your own insecurity and makes you a small person, frankly.

This post was edited on 9/8 8:09 AM by Casis

 

[UTLonghornXTR]

Because we saw some things last week that allowed us to feel like Major will use Texas's biggest advantage on offense, speed. We should slice and dice that secondary with the amount of injuries these guys have, and no one on the planet is scared of the BYU offense. Texas by 20, and you can come back and tell me how you need a life change. Thinking negatively is a sickness that rears its head on this board too often.

Now to answer your question. Outside of Van Noy, no one on the BYU team would start for Texas.

 

[D.X. Bible]

DubaiBob, et al-
Here to eat my crow anytime the Texas OL finds some physicality and the Texas defense learns how to tackle. Tic toc.....

 

[lilMAC]

Originally posted by D.X. Bible:

DubaiBob, et al-
Here to eat my crow anytime the Texas OL finds some physicality and the Texas defense learns how to tackle. Tic toc.....

There's a shit ton of tic tocs left dude.


Game isn't over yet.

 

[D.X. Bible]

lilMac-
Point is this was supposed to be a whitewash blowout for Texas, according to this board. Wasnt supposed to even be close. Anyone singing a different tune yet?

 

[lilMAC]

Originally posted by D.X. Bible:
lilMac-
Point is this was supposed to be a whitewash blowout for Texas, according to this board. Wasnt supposed to even be close. Anyone singing a different tune yet?

What?

I've seen many many people say this would be a close game.



Ask this board what color grass is and you'll get 500 different answers.

 

[BullDoza]

Interesting thread to read. OP has been spot on...even as I type.

They are dominating us on both lines.

 

[Jamaicashane]

DxBible, you should invite OB's to your house to watch the second-half of the game. I'll bring the keg, you serve the crow appetizers
Posted from wireless.rivals.com[/URL]

 

[D.X. Bible]

Believe me, I hoped against hope that this was not the case. I was just struck by the complete lack of concern about this game.

 

[D.X. Bible]

Still here....

 

[drunk randoke]

Whoops
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[BullDoza]

Bump.

 

[lilMAC]

Originally posted by D.X. Bible:

Believe me, I hoped against hope that this was not the case. I was just struck by the complete lack of concern about this game.

And fans watching at home affect this how?


A fan being right or wrong about the course of a game is literally meaningless.



You are smart enough to know that. I've read your posts throughout the years. Now, if you were saying that the team/coaches were overconfident, then I've misunderstood and apologize.






PS. You were right, good call.

This post was edited on 9/7 10:43 PM by lilMAC

 

[TXtsip98]

Great thread. Would read again.
Posted from wireless.rivals.com[/URL]

 

[SkullSplitter]

Bump.

 

[Hello Nasty]

 

[D.X. Bible]

Good morning pumpers.