- If Texas beats KY and A&M beats AUB, the winner in CS on 11/30 will be the #1 seed in the SEC Ch Game.
- It now looks like the #2 seed will be determined by a tiebreaker among a group of 5 teams that would have 2 conference losses. IF, of course, those 5 handle their business.
The 5 would be Bama, UGA, Ole Miss, TN, and the loser of the TX/A&M game. UGA is done with conference play, so we know they are 6-2. LSU and Mizz are out of this discussion with their losses this weekend.
Remaining games
Bama - @ OU, Aub
UGA - Done
Ole Miss - @ FL, Miss St
TN - @ Vandy
If we assume those wins, and that the loser on 11/30 in CS will be 6-2, you're looking at basically the same tiebreaker scenario as last week. The 5 teams would not have any HTH or Common Opponent elements you could use. It would go to SOS.
If Texas wins out
Bama - 50%
UGA - 46.9%
A&M - 45.3%
Ole Miss - 35.9%
TN - 35.9%
If A&M wins out
Bama - 50%
UGA - 46.9%
Texas - 37.5%
Ole Miss - 35.9%
TN - 35.9%
So in both scenarios, Bama would be the #2 seed in Atlanta.
Now, as far as the question of whether or not Texas would get into the CFP with a 10-2 record? UGA winning complicates things because now they will be back into the bracket and they strengthen the resumes of both Bama and Ole Miss. So if Texas loses a close one in CS, where do they fall? Then you'd have to consider the game in ATL and where that loser would fall in the rankings. Would a 3-loss A&M or Bama fall past Texas and be out? Or would the committee reward the fact that they played in the Ch Game and leave them in? I still think Texas would be in at 10-2, but it's feeling tighter by the minute.
- And I will say this all week...Texas fans, root for Army. If they can knock off Notre Dame, the Irish would have to be out of CFP discussion with the loss to N. Illinois. Plus, if Army jumps past Boise, they take the G5 spot assuming they win the AAC Ch Game (vs Tulane). That would mean you have an extra spot available in the CFP. That 5th SEC team might get that spot.
