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*****
Over the course of the weekend, things became a lot more clear about which key personnel will be returning to Texas and which will be moving on, either via the transfer portal or to throw their respective hats in the ring for the 2024 NFL draft.
I've heard from people all over the Longhorns fan spectrum about what it all means. Well, with a lot of it, it's really, really simple. Certain guys were going pro all along and all of the speculation that they *could* possibly be returning was simply wishcasting from sources on the NIL side of things who were taking their last-minute moonshots at the behest of the staff. Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, JT Sanders, Jonathon Brooks, Byron Murphy, etc. were never coming back to Texas barring devastating and unforeseen circumstances, but they'd at least listen to what the NIL guys were trying to sell.
The more interesting cases are the ones regarding the players on the fringes. We've discussed this before, but getting DL Alfred Collins back is, somewhat surprisingly, one of the biggest wins in this season's early-January cycle of transfer portal additions/subtractions and NFL declarers/returners. Collins wasn't all that good in the 2023 season. He was massively overshadowed by T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy and was banged up and used more and more sparingly down the stretch even as total JAGs like Trill Carter saw upticks in their playing time. But, Collins playing at a full-go like we saw in the college football semifinal reminded us of a couple of things: 1) when he's fully healthy, he's just a lot better than what he was at times in 2023 and 2) he holds up much better against the run than anyone on the Texas roster has proven themselves to once you take Murphy and Sweat out of the equation. If Collins can put the hypothetical upside he has with his length and movement abilities into play as an interior pass-rusher that everyone was hoping to see emerge in 2023, he'll be more than just good -- he'll be a force. Will he? Well, it's fair to have your doubts, but at least we now have a chance to actually find out.
Trill Carter is now gone (more on that and what it means in a minute) but he was a turnstyle and Vernon Broughton has not been much better. Jaray Bledsoe has been hurt. Aaron Bryant may one day be good but on a small 2023 sample he's been a literal no-show, not recording a single statistic on 46 regular season snaps. Sydir Mitchell is a bright spot among the depth that will be needed to fill in as much more of a factor next season, but he only played 14 total snaps for the entirety of the 2023 season and postseason. Outside of Mitchell (and the hope his effectiveness on a miniscule sample size could translate), things were looking a lot more rough in an Alfred Collins-less world at Texas.
So, why didn't Trill Carter come back? Even knowing that Collins would be returning. The state of the DL as we just described it didn't exactly paint a picture of massive competition. Here's a guy who played 25% of the snaps last year and seemed poised, not necessarily through good play but through natural succession due to attrition around him, to be stepping into a seriously primary (if not starting) role. It would have been a disaster, but no one can say it wouldn't be a logical thing for a guy in his spot to see things. The fact that he is now gone from Texas shows us what's most important (regardless of how we think of things or see them in our own mind's eye): It tells us that the Texas staff knew he wasn't good enough and that they were more pleased with other options on the roster and, that they likely felt really good about their chances with a difference maker and likely projected starter in the portal such as a Jamaree Caldwell from Houston. Relatively informed Texas fans began to worry about DL depth when Trill Carter hit the portal. The hyper-informed had their worries alleviated.
That's the good news in all this ... and it also applies to the secondary. A pretty bad secondary from 2023, let's be honest.
The Relatively informed began to worry about safety depth when Jerrin Thompson, Kitan Crawford and Ryan Watts (who was exposed as being too slow in 2023 to play outside corner at the next level, hence a move to safety was figured to be in the cards for 2024). The hyper-informed became excited. They realized that the safety play in 2023 wasn't good outside of Derek Williams. Crawford was a total liability, Jerrin Thompson was a missed tackle (and seemingly a miscommunication) machine. Michael Taaffe was fine.
With Watts, the calculus was different than with Thompson and Crawford. Without having much inside knowledge of those exact discussions, it's pretty clear that the message from the staff to those two was that their jobs were anything but safe and maybe exploring other options should be considered. Neither of those guys have NFL prospects following the 2023 season, so they elected to enter the portal.
With Watts, Texas probably wouldn't have minded him coming back as much as the other two, but therein lies the pickle. Put yourself in Watts' shoes. He was almost surely told by the Texas staff that if he wanted to come back, he'd have to compete for a job with Andrew Mukuba and Derek Williams. That's a much saltier safety group than Texas has had in recent years and let's not neglect to mention true freshman Xavier Filsaime and Jordan Johnson-Rubell, etc. not exactly being pushovers. If freshmen come in and show this staff they are sick players, they play them. See: Derek Williams. And you're Ryan Watts and this is your first year playing safety? Do you want to come back to Texas and deal with that? The questions that come from the scouts about why you started for two years but didn't play as a senior? Do you want to transfer? To a lesser school? Because let's be honest, he'd have to move down a relatively significant distance prestige-wise to put himself in a spot where he'd basically be guaranteed a starting spot at either CB or safety. Then, he'd have to answer questions about why he got run off from Texas. Put all that together, and declaring for the draft really does feel like his only out.
I think I speak for most reading this when I wish sincere luck to everyone mentioned here as they move forward in their journeys.