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Alfred Collins, Trill Carter, Ryan Watts and the Hyper-Informed (via MyPerfectFranchise.Net)

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*****

Over the course of the weekend, things became a lot more clear about which key personnel will be returning to Texas and which will be moving on, either via the transfer portal or to throw their respective hats in the ring for the 2024 NFL draft.

I've heard from people all over the Longhorns fan spectrum about what it all means. Well, with a lot of it, it's really, really simple. Certain guys were going pro all along and all of the speculation that they *could* possibly be returning was simply wishcasting from sources on the NIL side of things who were taking their last-minute moonshots at the behest of the staff. Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, JT Sanders, Jonathon Brooks, Byron Murphy, etc. were never coming back to Texas barring devastating and unforeseen circumstances, but they'd at least listen to what the NIL guys were trying to sell.

The more interesting cases are the ones regarding the players on the fringes. We've discussed this before, but getting DL Alfred Collins back is, somewhat surprisingly, one of the biggest wins in this season's early-January cycle of transfer portal additions/subtractions and NFL declarers/returners. Collins wasn't all that good in the 2023 season. He was massively overshadowed by T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy and was banged up and used more and more sparingly down the stretch even as total JAGs like Trill Carter saw upticks in their playing time. But, Collins playing at a full-go like we saw in the college football semifinal reminded us of a couple of things: 1) when he's fully healthy, he's just a lot better than what he was at times in 2023 and 2) he holds up much better against the run than anyone on the Texas roster has proven themselves to once you take Murphy and Sweat out of the equation. If Collins can put the hypothetical upside he has with his length and movement abilities into play as an interior pass-rusher that everyone was hoping to see emerge in 2023, he'll be more than just good -- he'll be a force. Will he? Well, it's fair to have your doubts, but at least we now have a chance to actually find out.

Trill Carter is now gone (more on that and what it means in a minute) but he was a turnstyle and Vernon Broughton has not been much better. Jaray Bledsoe has been hurt. Aaron Bryant may one day be good but on a small 2023 sample he's been a literal no-show, not recording a single statistic on 46 regular season snaps. Sydir Mitchell is a bright spot among the depth that will be needed to fill in as much more of a factor next season, but he only played 14 total snaps for the entirety of the 2023 season and postseason. Outside of Mitchell (and the hope his effectiveness on a miniscule sample size could translate), things were looking a lot more rough in an Alfred Collins-less world at Texas.

So, why didn't Trill Carter come back? Even knowing that Collins would be returning. The state of the DL as we just described it didn't exactly paint a picture of massive competition. Here's a guy who played 25% of the snaps last year and seemed poised, not necessarily through good play but through natural succession due to attrition around him, to be stepping into a seriously primary (if not starting) role. It would have been a disaster, but no one can say it wouldn't be a logical thing for a guy in his spot to see things. The fact that he is now gone from Texas shows us what's most important (regardless of how we think of things or see them in our own mind's eye): It tells us that the Texas staff knew he wasn't good enough and that they were more pleased with other options on the roster and, that they likely felt really good about their chances with a difference maker and likely projected starter in the portal such as a Jamaree Caldwell from Houston. Relatively informed Texas fans began to worry about DL depth when Trill Carter hit the portal. The hyper-informed had their worries alleviated.

That's the good news in all this ... and it also applies to the secondary. A pretty bad secondary from 2023, let's be honest.

The Relatively informed began to worry about safety depth when Jerrin Thompson, Kitan Crawford and Ryan Watts (who was exposed as being too slow in 2023 to play outside corner at the next level, hence a move to safety was figured to be in the cards for 2024). The hyper-informed became excited. They realized that the safety play in 2023 wasn't good outside of Derek Williams. Crawford was a total liability, Jerrin Thompson was a missed tackle (and seemingly a miscommunication) machine. Michael Taaffe was fine.

With Watts, the calculus was different than with Thompson and Crawford. Without having much inside knowledge of those exact discussions, it's pretty clear that the message from the staff to those two was that their jobs were anything but safe and maybe exploring other options should be considered. Neither of those guys have NFL prospects following the 2023 season, so they elected to enter the portal.

With Watts, Texas probably wouldn't have minded him coming back as much as the other two, but therein lies the pickle. Put yourself in Watts' shoes. He was almost surely told by the Texas staff that if he wanted to come back, he'd have to compete for a job with Andrew Mukuba and Derek Williams. That's a much saltier safety group than Texas has had in recent years and let's not neglect to mention true freshman Xavier Filsaime and Jordan Johnson-Rubell, etc. not exactly being pushovers. If freshmen come in and show this staff they are sick players, they play them. See: Derek Williams. And you're Ryan Watts and this is your first year playing safety? Do you want to come back to Texas and deal with that? The questions that come from the scouts about why you started for two years but didn't play as a senior? Do you want to transfer? To a lesser school? Because let's be honest, he'd have to move down a relatively significant distance prestige-wise to put himself in a spot where he'd basically be guaranteed a starting spot at either CB or safety. Then, he'd have to answer questions about why he got run off from Texas. Put all that together, and declaring for the draft really does feel like his only out.

I think I speak for most reading this when I wish sincere luck to everyone mentioned here as they move forward in their journeys.

What an extraordinary 24 hours

In the last 24 hours, we have seen Belichick, Sabin, and Pete Carroll, all leave their positions.

Between them, they have 15 championships. 15.

To put that in perspective, coaches about a third of the championships in the last 22 years in college and the NFL quit yesterday.

You can say for sure that they’re never will be a day like this again. I mean, imagine a day where they Bryant, Don Shula, and Tom Landry, all retire or quit on the same day? That’s about what this is.

CA Solution To Major Budget Deficit

You guessed it, more taxes on the very rich via a "wealth tax". They will never learn. The exodus of wealthy Californians to Texas, Idaho, and Florida will hasten if this is implemented and survives court challenges.

The Portal has a chance to be really strong this year

Saban is out so Bama players might be looking to leave. Harbaugh probably going NFL which brings in Michigan players. If Lanning is the choice for Bama, then that brings in Oregon players. That is three really strong teams with coaches leaving. Hopefully we can cherry pick a few good players at positions of need. Not sure that there will ever be another portal like this.

WBB: #10 Texas vs TCU, Wednesday - Longhorns shoot poorly, win 72-60

The Longhorns (15-1, 2-1) and Horned Frogs (14-2, 1-2) won't be the Top 25 matchup it could've been - TCU entered the poll at #23 last week but fell out after back-to-back losses to Baylor and Okie Lite. New TCU head coach Mark Campbell was an assistant at Oregon before replacing Reagan Pembley. He then effectively turned over the roster with transfers including (*** = starter):
  • *** G Jaden Owens from Baylor (UCLA before that)
  • *** G Madison Conner from Arizona
  • *** G Una Jovanovic from Cal State Fullerton
  • *** C Sedona Prince from Oregon (Texas before that)
  • *** G Agnes Emma-Nnopu from Stanford
  • G/F Sydney Harris from Central Michigan
The Horned Frogs took a big hit last week when Sedona Prince broke her finger and is out indefinitely after surgery. She was granted an extra year of eligibility after injury-plagued seasons at Texas and Oregon. She was 2nd on the team in scoring (21.2 ppg), leading rebounder (10.6) and shot blocker (3.3). Madison Conner (21.5 ppg) and Prince accounted for 55.3% of the Horned Frogs' per game scoring (77.3). Conner's 167 3-pt attempts (40.7% shooting from BTA) is just 33 short of the total Texas has taken as a team (200) this season. As a squad, TCU jacks it up like there's an 8-second shot clock: 428 attempts (27 per game) but they hit 37.1% so Texas' perimeter defense has to be on point.

Without Prince, TCU doesn't have much length but they do have some good athletes. Off to a program best 13-0 start against a very suspect non-conference slate, they won their first conference game against BYU but dropped back-to-back Big12 games, 71-50 and 67-59.

Longhorn Notes and Numbers:
  • Madison Booker averaged 16.5 points, 9 rebounds and 6.5 assists in road wins against Tech and #24 WVU and was named Big 12 Co-Player of the Week with KSU C Ayoka Lee but ISU's Addy Brown was Freshman of the Week. Big12 gonna Big 12. She also picked up her 1st career double-double (WVU) and, against ranked opponents this season, the freshman point forward is averaging 20 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists.
    • Taking over at PG has led to a spike in her TO rate. Over the last 4 games she is averaging 5 per compared to 1.9 at her more natural W position. Cleaning that up significantly may be a lot to ask for a freshman playing out of position but some improvement (3-3.5) would make me feel better about this team's ceiling.
  • With Rori at the helm, Texas averaged 12.7 turnovers a game. Without? 19.8. Per game scoring and assists have also dropped from 92.7 to 80 and 20.7 to 14 respectively. Rebounds dropped slightly but I'm attributing that more to Taylor being unavailable for 4 games as they exceeded their season average against WVU in her 1st game back from a hip injury.
  • The depth at the PF position is paying dividends. Amina was very solid to really good at times while Deyona and Aaliyah were out. With those 2 rounding into shape, Vic has a versatile pool of 4s he can mix and match to create problems for opposing defenders.
  • Battle of the Desert Sharp Shooters: Shaylee Gonzalez (Gilbert, AZ) and Madison Conner (Chandler, AZ) are their respective teams' highest volume 3-pt shooters. Shaylee's 63 attempts (44.4%) are almost higher than the next 2 players on the Longhorns' next 2 combined (Madison and Shay - 71) but it's only 37% of the long distance attempts of Conner.
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Paul Harvey ... "If I were the Devil"

Paul Harvey's name has been raised over the months & years here in the Corral, and I thought I would reintroduce something I read today from a Writer, originally from Harvey in the 60's. Boy, his Nostradamus skills were fairly sharp!
Here's the article...


Back in 1965, Radio broadcaster Paul Harvey did a radio show, and titled it, "If I were the devil" and look at how much of what he had to say, is here in living color, 2024

“If I were the devil … If I were the Prince of Darkness, I’d want to engulf the whole world in darkness. And I’d have a third of its real estate, and four-fifths of its population, but I wouldn’t be happy until I had seized the ripest apple on the tree — Thee. So I’d set about however necessary to take over the United States. I’d subvert the churches first — I’d begin with a campaign of whispers. With the wisdom of a serpent, I would whisper to you as I whispered to Eve: ‘Do as you please.

To the young, I would whisper that ‘The Bible is a myth.’ I would convince them that man created God instead of the other way around. I would confide that what’s bad is good, and what’s good is ‘square.’ And the old, I would teach to pray, after me, ‘Our Father, which art in Washington…

And then I’d get organized. I’d educate authors in how to make lurid literature exciting, so that anything else would appear dull and uninteresting. I’d threaten TV with dirtier movies and vice versa. I’d pedal narcotics to whom I could. I’d sell alcohol to ladies and gentlemen of distinction. I’d tranquilize the rest with pills.

If I were the devil I’d soon have families at war with themselves, churches at war with themselves, and nations at war with themselves; until each in its turn was consumed. And with promises of higher ratings I’d have mesmerizing media fanning the flames. If I were the devil I would encourage schools to refine young intellects, but neglect to discipline emotions — just let those run wild, until before you knew it, you’d have to have drug sniffing dogs and metal detectors at every schoolhouse door.

Within a decade I’d have prisons overflowing, I’d have judges promoting pornography — soon I could evict God from the courthouse, then from the schoolhouse, and then from the houses of Congress. And in His own churches I would substitute psychology for religion, and deify science. I would lure priests and pastors into misusing boys and girls, and church money. If I were the devil I’d make the symbols of Easter an egg and the symbol of Christmas a bottle.

If I were the devil I’d take from those who have, and give to those who want until I had killed the incentive of the ambitious.

And what do you bet I could get whole states to promote gambling as the way to get rich? I would caution against extremes and hard work in Patriotism, in moral conduct. I would convince the young that marriage is old-fashioned, that swinging is more fun, that what you see on the TV is the way to be. And thus, I could undress you in public, and I could lure you into bed with diseases for which there is no cure. In other words, if I were the devil I’d just keep right on doing what he’s doing.”

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

He said that 59 years ago. Now if you align what Mr. Harvey said, with the list of what the communist's written goals were from the same time period, the bottom line is that we're 90% there. The takeover is almost complete. I truly believe you have to be blind not to see it. Or possessed. Is that the answer? Are people literally satanically impeded from seeing the truth?
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