***DISCLAIMER***
This is not a projection of what the CFP rankings will be as of this week … this is a projection of what the CFP will look like at the end of the season.
***END OF DISCLAIMER***
The Texas Longhorns are back to being SEC champions in my latest CFP projections.
Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss opened that door back up … and put Georgia in serious jeopardy of missing out on the college football playoff all together. If UGA doesn’t beat Tennessee this Saturday, they will have three losses and will not make the CFP.
Georgia’s loss is Texas’ gain.
But we need to have a serious conversation about Texas’ chances of missing the CFP.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Texas loses to Texas A&M and finishes the regular season 10-2. That’s still a damn good record. The problem is, Texas will not have a marquee win to bolster their resume.
Is it Texas’ fault that Michigan sucks? Absolutely not. But they do and so that win in Ann Arbor just doesn’t hold as much water in November as it did in September.
The same is true with OU as well. Brent Venables won’t be fired this year because his buyout is so large ($44 million), but he’s playing out the string until the day comes when he is let go. OU is in real, real trouble of not making a bowl game at all this year. The Missouri game was their best chance of getting bowl eligible but they choked it away. Now they have to beat Alabama or LSU in order to go bowling. Good luck with all of that. But whether they go bowling or not, Texas’ win in the Red River Shootout doesn’t have a lot of shine.
That leaves the Horns’ best win as either Vanderbilt (who could bolster their case by beating LSU and/or Tennessee in their last two games) or … wait for it … Colorado State.
Crazy as it may seem, the Rams have quietly put together a pretty good season since losing 52-0 in Austin. Yes, they did go on to lose to Colorado (who is in contention for the Big 12 title game) and then they lost to Oregon State in overtime (which is a bad loss for Colorado State). But the Rams are also undefeated in Mountain West Conference play and have two very winnable games left against Fresno State and Utah State. If Colorado State wins those games, as they should, then they will play in the MWC championship game against Boise State. Boise State should, and in all likelihood will, win that game. But if CSU pulls it off then Texas’ win over a 10-3 Mountain West Conference champion team will be the biggest win of the season for Texas.
That’s hardly a stellar resume for Texas to make its case that it belongs in the CFP.
A 10-2 Texas team will be competing for one of the seven at-large berths in the CFP. To get it, the committee will need to be convinced that the Horns are more worthy than these teams:
11-1 Notre Dame
11-1 Penn State
11-1 Indiana
11-2 (or 10-3) Texas A&M (who will have beaten Texas and made the SEC Championship game)
10-2 Alabama
10-2 Ole Miss
10-2 Georgia or Tennessee (depending on what happens this weekend)
10-2 Miami
10-2 SMU
10-2 Clemson
That’s ten teams competing for one of those seven spots. Granted, one of those ACC schools will be in automatically by virtue of winning the conference so it’s really nine teams for seven spots.
But you get my point. Texas is not a lock to make the CFP if they lose another game. And while I know y’all don’t want to hear this, this is not just me with idle speculation or click-bate articles. There is a lot of chatter among the talking heads of college football that Texas’ resume isn’t good enough. That means that it’s something we have to consider because it will end up being something the CFP committee considers … if it is put in that situation.
So if you want to avoid that mess, then the Horns better be like Rocky and listen to Adrian.
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Without further adieu, here are this week’s CFP projections.
Ok. I fought the truth and I lost. You all tried to tell me I was foolish for projecting Miami to finish the season undefeated and be ranked the number one seed in the CFP.
Miami’s high-wire act of barely beating teams they should be beating by a much higher score finally caught up with them.
You were right, I was wrong.
Not only is Miami no longer the number one seed, I’ve got them out of the CFP all together … meaning I’m projecting SMU to beat them in the ACC championship game.
That puts Ohio State into the number one seed (again, I’m projecting the Buckeyes to beat Oregon in the Big Ten title game).
Texas is back in top four with the two seed. That means I think they beat A&M on Thanksgiving weekend and then they beat whomever makes the SEC championship game (Tennessee or Alabama look like the best bets).
BYU, who remained undefeated after a big comeback in the Holy War last week, has Kansas, Arizona State and Houston left in the regular season. I seriously considered putting Colorado in as the Big 12 champion, but I’m keeping BYU in that slot for now.
And Boise State rounds out the top four seeds. If the Broncos run the table and SMU wins the ACC, then I think Boise State will be the higher ranked conference champ and get the four seed over SMU.
OREGON VS. SMU
The Ducks, by virtue of their only loss coming in the Big Ten championship game, will be the highest ranked non-conference champ and will host SMU in the first round.
Oregon could easily win that Big Ten game and be the one seed. If that were to happen, and Ohio State were to finish with two losses, both to Oregon, I think Ohio State would slot in as the five seed. But that probably depends on how that championship game played out. For now, I’m sticking with Ohio State winning the league and Oregon playing SMU.
TENNESSEE VS. INDIANA
For this to happen, that means that I think Tennessee will win this week and then lose to Texas in the SEC Championship game. The Vols would then come into the CFP with an 11-2 record and slot in just behind Oregon. They’ll then get to host Indiana in round one.
That would be a pretty exciting game as Indiana would be making the playoffs for the first time ever. They would bring their high-powered offense (which sputtered for the first time this season in last week’s game against Michigan) to face off against Tennessee’s stout defense.
ALABAMA VS. PENN STATE
The Tide look like one of the best teams in college football when Jalen Milroe is clicking. But they’ve also shown themselves to be beatable (watch out for a potential upset in the Iron Bowl). Their two losses are the reason they’re not seeded higher in this projection.
For all of the talk of Texas’ lack of a strong resume, is anyone looking at Penn State’s schedule? Woof! Their best win is a 6-3 Illinois team (comparable to Texas’ win over Vanderbilt). Unlike the Longhorns, the Nittany Lions don’t have a team like Texas A&M left to bolster their strength of schedule. They finish the season with Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland (Minnesota is the only team left with a winning record at 6-4).
NOTRE DAME VS. OLE MISS
The Fighting Irish probably won’t lose another game, but I never thought they would lose to Northern Illinois either. Army could be a tough matchup and USC is crap but still capable of beating Notre Dame. Still, if they run the table, they’ll finish with only one loss and host Ole Miss in South Bend in the first round of the playoffs.
The Ole Miss vs. Georgia game last week played out the way I thought the Texas vs. Georgia game did. But, I will say,
@Ketchum was dead spot on when he said we need to realize that the Georgia/Texas game was the outlier in the Bulldogs season. They played the game of the season in Austin and haven’t been the same before or since. That’s not to take anything away from Ole Miss who did what they needed to do in the offseason to bolster their offensive and defensive lines. Heck, they were my preseason pick to make the SEC Championship game against Texas … something that could have happened had it not been for their loss at home versus Kentucky. I’m still struggling to figure that one out … and it still nags at me when I think about Kentucky coming to Austin next week. For that matter, Ole Miss had no business losing to LSU either.
