Where will the Longhorns land in the 2024 NFL Draft?
- Inside the 40 Acres
- 76 Replies
Since 2021, there have been 10 Longhorns drafted into the NFL, and there is an opportunity for 10 to be drafted this year alone. Eleven Longhorns have been invited to the upcoming NFL combine, so let’s break down how many will be drafted in April and when. We will explore why each player landed where he did in my latest 4-Round NFL Mock Draft and what they bring to their respective NFL franchise.
No. 18 – New Orleans Saints via CIN –Byron Murphy II, DL – Texas
Comparable Player: Geno Atkins, Cincinnati Bengals 4th Round Pick in 2010
Report: Leading the Power Five in pass rush win rate at 19.6% is easy to hear, but if you ask any offensive lineman (aside from Jarrod Hufford before the Iowa State game), they will tell you that they feel that number every week. Despite Byron Murphy’s elite strength, he has room to grow in pass rush creation, a daunting idea for an already dominant user of hands and leverage. His foot speed agility is consistently in conjunction with his hands. Being lined up near the ball, I would expect Murphy’s speed off the snap to be a bit quicker.
Projection: As it stands today before the NFL Combine, Murphy is the only Texas Longhorn that feels like a guaranteed first-round draft pick. Although there are no guarantees in the NFL Draft, we can begin looking at landing spots with Minnesota at #11, Las Vegas at #13, and New Orleans at #14. Since 2014 when Aaron Donald was drafted by the Los Angeles Rams at #13 overall, there have been few instances in which a defensive tackle of Murphy's stature has been drafted inside the top 20. This includes Ed Oliver by the Bills in 2019 and Calijah Kancey by Tampa Bay in 2023.
NFL Combine Expectations: Murphy is currently training at Trench Warfare with T’Vondre Sweat. In previous years, Coach Tucker and his staff helped prepare number one overall pick Travon Walker for the NFL Combine as well as former Texas Longhorns Poona Ford and Charles Ominahu. It is called the Underwear Olympics for a reason. To garner comparisons like Oliver and Kancey, Murphy needs to run in the 4.80 range and aim towards a 7.00 three-cone shuttle, which are two things that can separate him from the pack. In Bruce Feldman’s 2023 “Freaks List,” he reported Murphy hitting 18mph and being shut down after an easy 375-lb power clean. His strength and power are not in question, but teams will want to see it translate to speed and agility next week in Indianapolis.
Past 1st-Round NFL Draft Prospects vs. 2024 NFL Draft Prospects
No. 23 – Houston Texans via CLE – T’Vondre Sweat, DT – Texas
Comparable Player: Vita Vea, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1st Round Pick in 2018
Report: Edge rushers are known for using a speed-to-power pass-rushing concept. For T’Vondre Sweat, his power-to-speed fluidity on the interior is his best trait. His strength in the run game to hold ground while bursting upfield to the ball carrier is rarely seen in prospects of his stature. As a dominant run defender, Sweat has the speed to defeat reach blocks on zone runs while exhibiting a strong bull rush with effective creativity on both run and passing downs.
Projection: Jordan Davis ran a freakish 4.78 40-yard dash at 341 pounds and was drafted 13th overall. Vita Vea was top-10 in the country in both quarterback pressures and run stop rate, and he was drafted 12th overall at 347 pounds. Sweat may not run a 4.80 40-yard dash, however, he did finish top-10 this year in quarterback pressures and run stop rate. Jacksonville at #17 overall is where the T’Vondre Sweat door should begin to shine a light. Based on conversations with two scouts at the Senior Bowl, the likelihood that Sweat will fall past the New Orleans pick in Round 2 is near zero.
NFL Combine Expectations: Getting on the scale is job number one for Sweat in Indianapolis. After not weighing in at the Senior Bowl in January, rumors started swirling that his weight may be an issue and he ballooned up over 380 lbs. Teams that are interested in Sweat have been in contact with Longhorns staff and have insights into his playing weight, habits, and care for staying “in shape.” Showing up in Indianapolis around 355-365 lbs. may silence the media and eliminate a talking point against Sweat as the draft approaches. The most recent first-round pick to weigh in over 360 pounds was Mekhi Becton who was drafted by the New York Jets in 2020, and his 40-yard dash was 5.10 seconds.
2023 DL Snap Share/Snaps per Disruption, per Alex Dunlaps Deep Dig (Since 2015 - 165
No. 46 – Indianapolis Colts – Xavier Worthy, WR – Texas
Comparable Player: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions 1st Round Pick in 2022
Report: From running 10.55 in the 100m as a sophomore in high school to entering college as a prolific burner, Xavier Worthy’s long speed is at the top of the 2024 draft class along with Troy Franklin from Oregon. His strength makes him a deceptive creator, as he racked up 1,421 yards after the catch in just three seasons, which comprises 51.6% of his total receiving yardage. Like Houston rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, Worthy “skates” through coverage with an uncanny flow. At times, Worthy struggles with concentration drops. He finished his career with 15 drops, which is the same as LSU superstar Malik Nabers.
Projection: After a dominant first year at Texas, most of the NFL Draft media pegged Worthy as the number two receiver in the 2024 NFL Draft class right behind Ohio State superstar Marvin Harrison Jr. As with any prolonged exposure to prospects, people tend to find holes in a player's game. The issue with Worthy is that his frame and injury history raise a red flag for longevity and availability in the NFL. Worthy earned a 1st Round grade as my WR5 in the class.
NFL Combine Expectations: While the conversation about the “fastest man” at the NFL Combine heats up, Texas fans know far too well what Worthy brings to the table. There are reports of him being clocked at 4.29 during college, and if he hits that number, he will be in the same conversation as Henry Ruggs and Marquise Goodwin, who both ran 4.27 in their respective years. The gauntlet drill on Saturday serves as one last opportunity for Worthy to prove to teams that he is more than a one-trick pony. He is smooth and under control at the catch point with patience and quickness to stay en route throughout.
No. 48 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Adonai Mitchell, WR – Texas
Comparable Player: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers 2nd Round Pick in 2022
Report: Adonai Mitchell is just as dependable as the other side of the pillow is cool, as he finished with 55 catches in 2023 with 45 being first downs or touchdowns. His twitch and foot speed adjustment at the top of routes allow him to overtake most defenders while in man coverage. Over the past two seasons, Mitchell has just one registered drop on 103 targets.
Projection: My first exposure to Adonai Mitchell was after his freshman season at Georgia. At the 2022 Georgia Pro Day, his teammate George Pickens proclaimed, “AD is next. Some stuff you just can't coach. He has the mindset, the routes, and the speed.” Fast-forward two seasons and Mitchell has grown into a dependable red zone target while having a more polished route tree than Pickens did coming out in 2022. Mitchell is my WR7 in the class with an early 2nd-round grade.
NFL Combine Expectations: Mitchell has less to worry about at the NFL Combine from a measurables and testing point of view. His game is not built around speed, but consistency and dependability. I expect him to run in the 4.49-4.50 area while making waves in the route running portion of drills.
No. 53 – Miami Dolphins – Jatavion Sanders, TE – Texas
Comparable Player: Owen Daniels, Houston Texans 4th Round Pick in 2006
Report: Jatavion Sanders was able to double down on a strong Sophomore season at Texas, improving his big-play ability by vaulting up 3.8 yards per reception and 1.6 yards per target. Despite his graceful route running and tenacity after the catch (2nd in the Power Five), Sanders could use some tool sharpening in the run-blocking department.
Projection: I have Sanders graded as my TE2 in the 2024 draft class with an early 3rd round grade. There is a large tier drop between him and TE3, which has the potential to force another team’s hand early in the second round. With an impressive showing in Indianapolis, it would be reasonable to begin hearing his name mentioned around pick No. 34 with the New England Patriots through pick No. 72 with the New York Jets.
NFL Combine Expectations: The tight end position has been undervalued in the NFL Draft over the last 10 seasons, so the likelihood of Sanders jumping into the 1st round is slim. However, the strength of the 2024 tight-end class is size rather than speed, and if Sanders can run sub-4.5 in the 40-yard dash, conversations will heat up quickly.
2024 Target Share Leaders, per Alex Dunlaps Deep Dig
No. 59 – Houston Texans – Jonathon Brooks, RB – Texas
Comparable Player: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys 4th Round Pick in 2019
Report: Finishing 3rd in the 2024 draft class with 3.91 yards after contact per attempt, Jonathon Brooks burst onto the field following the departure of Bijan Robinson. Robinson led the 2023 class with 4.17 yards after contact per attempt and was drafted eighth overall by the Falcons. Brooks runs with a patience that is often unteachable and can burst through the hole or bend the edge. Brooks will need to improve his pad level in the NFL, as he currently exhibits a healthy amount of surface area.
Projection: Before his mid-season leg injury, the assumed Doak Walker award winner was projected to begin the draft process as the consensus RB1. I moved him down the board due to his injury, but not by far. Brooks sits at RB2 with an early 3rd round draft grade. I expect up to six running backs to be drafted on day two, the same number as in 2022 when there was no first-rounder in the group.
NFL Combine Expectations: I have limited expectations from Jonathon Brooks as he recovers from a torn ACL on November 11th against TCU, as he is 3 months into an estimated 6- to 8-month recovery.
No. 103 – Carolina Panthers via WAS – Christian Jones, OT – Texas
Comparable Player: Trey Pipkins III, Los Angeles Chargers 3rd Round Pick in 2019
Report: Christian Jones showed great physicality and finishing power in the run game against top talents from Alabama and Washington. I caught up with Jones at the Senior Bowl last month and asked him what part of his game needed the most work. He responded, “My hand placement in situations during pass pro – I tend to get a little wide. I'd like to be a better student of the game, understanding tendencies from d-linemen. You can always become a better student of the game.”
Projection: This year is regarded as the “draft of the decade” for offensive tackle depth, and Jones finds himself at the backend of the 2nd tier among the consensus. I have him as the fifth overall right tackle and 10th overall graded tackle in the class. With a 5th-round grade, I predict Jones to be drafted late on day two or in the early portion of the 4th round due to positional importance.
NFL Combine Expectations: Because the pads came off after the Senior Bowl, the best that Christian Jones can do is put his best foot forward in interviews and show his flexibility and movement skills in open-field drills alongside the best players at his position.
No. 18 – New Orleans Saints via CIN –Byron Murphy II, DL – Texas
Comparable Player: Geno Atkins, Cincinnati Bengals 4th Round Pick in 2010
Report: Leading the Power Five in pass rush win rate at 19.6% is easy to hear, but if you ask any offensive lineman (aside from Jarrod Hufford before the Iowa State game), they will tell you that they feel that number every week. Despite Byron Murphy’s elite strength, he has room to grow in pass rush creation, a daunting idea for an already dominant user of hands and leverage. His foot speed agility is consistently in conjunction with his hands. Being lined up near the ball, I would expect Murphy’s speed off the snap to be a bit quicker.
Projection: As it stands today before the NFL Combine, Murphy is the only Texas Longhorn that feels like a guaranteed first-round draft pick. Although there are no guarantees in the NFL Draft, we can begin looking at landing spots with Minnesota at #11, Las Vegas at #13, and New Orleans at #14. Since 2014 when Aaron Donald was drafted by the Los Angeles Rams at #13 overall, there have been few instances in which a defensive tackle of Murphy's stature has been drafted inside the top 20. This includes Ed Oliver by the Bills in 2019 and Calijah Kancey by Tampa Bay in 2023.
NFL Combine Expectations: Murphy is currently training at Trench Warfare with T’Vondre Sweat. In previous years, Coach Tucker and his staff helped prepare number one overall pick Travon Walker for the NFL Combine as well as former Texas Longhorns Poona Ford and Charles Ominahu. It is called the Underwear Olympics for a reason. To garner comparisons like Oliver and Kancey, Murphy needs to run in the 4.80 range and aim towards a 7.00 three-cone shuttle, which are two things that can separate him from the pack. In Bruce Feldman’s 2023 “Freaks List,” he reported Murphy hitting 18mph and being shut down after an easy 375-lb power clean. His strength and power are not in question, but teams will want to see it translate to speed and agility next week in Indianapolis.
Past 1st-Round NFL Draft Prospects vs. 2024 NFL Draft Prospects
Comparable Player: Vita Vea, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1st Round Pick in 2018
Report: Edge rushers are known for using a speed-to-power pass-rushing concept. For T’Vondre Sweat, his power-to-speed fluidity on the interior is his best trait. His strength in the run game to hold ground while bursting upfield to the ball carrier is rarely seen in prospects of his stature. As a dominant run defender, Sweat has the speed to defeat reach blocks on zone runs while exhibiting a strong bull rush with effective creativity on both run and passing downs.
Projection: Jordan Davis ran a freakish 4.78 40-yard dash at 341 pounds and was drafted 13th overall. Vita Vea was top-10 in the country in both quarterback pressures and run stop rate, and he was drafted 12th overall at 347 pounds. Sweat may not run a 4.80 40-yard dash, however, he did finish top-10 this year in quarterback pressures and run stop rate. Jacksonville at #17 overall is where the T’Vondre Sweat door should begin to shine a light. Based on conversations with two scouts at the Senior Bowl, the likelihood that Sweat will fall past the New Orleans pick in Round 2 is near zero.
NFL Combine Expectations: Getting on the scale is job number one for Sweat in Indianapolis. After not weighing in at the Senior Bowl in January, rumors started swirling that his weight may be an issue and he ballooned up over 380 lbs. Teams that are interested in Sweat have been in contact with Longhorns staff and have insights into his playing weight, habits, and care for staying “in shape.” Showing up in Indianapolis around 355-365 lbs. may silence the media and eliminate a talking point against Sweat as the draft approaches. The most recent first-round pick to weigh in over 360 pounds was Mekhi Becton who was drafted by the New York Jets in 2020, and his 40-yard dash was 5.10 seconds.
2023 DL Snap Share/Snaps per Disruption, per Alex Dunlaps Deep Dig (Since 2015 - 165
No. 46 – Indianapolis Colts – Xavier Worthy, WR – Texas
Comparable Player: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions 1st Round Pick in 2022
Report: From running 10.55 in the 100m as a sophomore in high school to entering college as a prolific burner, Xavier Worthy’s long speed is at the top of the 2024 draft class along with Troy Franklin from Oregon. His strength makes him a deceptive creator, as he racked up 1,421 yards after the catch in just three seasons, which comprises 51.6% of his total receiving yardage. Like Houston rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, Worthy “skates” through coverage with an uncanny flow. At times, Worthy struggles with concentration drops. He finished his career with 15 drops, which is the same as LSU superstar Malik Nabers.
Projection: After a dominant first year at Texas, most of the NFL Draft media pegged Worthy as the number two receiver in the 2024 NFL Draft class right behind Ohio State superstar Marvin Harrison Jr. As with any prolonged exposure to prospects, people tend to find holes in a player's game. The issue with Worthy is that his frame and injury history raise a red flag for longevity and availability in the NFL. Worthy earned a 1st Round grade as my WR5 in the class.
NFL Combine Expectations: While the conversation about the “fastest man” at the NFL Combine heats up, Texas fans know far too well what Worthy brings to the table. There are reports of him being clocked at 4.29 during college, and if he hits that number, he will be in the same conversation as Henry Ruggs and Marquise Goodwin, who both ran 4.27 in their respective years. The gauntlet drill on Saturday serves as one last opportunity for Worthy to prove to teams that he is more than a one-trick pony. He is smooth and under control at the catch point with patience and quickness to stay en route throughout.
No. 48 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Adonai Mitchell, WR – Texas
Comparable Player: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers 2nd Round Pick in 2022
Report: Adonai Mitchell is just as dependable as the other side of the pillow is cool, as he finished with 55 catches in 2023 with 45 being first downs or touchdowns. His twitch and foot speed adjustment at the top of routes allow him to overtake most defenders while in man coverage. Over the past two seasons, Mitchell has just one registered drop on 103 targets.
Projection: My first exposure to Adonai Mitchell was after his freshman season at Georgia. At the 2022 Georgia Pro Day, his teammate George Pickens proclaimed, “AD is next. Some stuff you just can't coach. He has the mindset, the routes, and the speed.” Fast-forward two seasons and Mitchell has grown into a dependable red zone target while having a more polished route tree than Pickens did coming out in 2022. Mitchell is my WR7 in the class with an early 2nd-round grade.
NFL Combine Expectations: Mitchell has less to worry about at the NFL Combine from a measurables and testing point of view. His game is not built around speed, but consistency and dependability. I expect him to run in the 4.49-4.50 area while making waves in the route running portion of drills.
No. 53 – Miami Dolphins – Jatavion Sanders, TE – Texas
Comparable Player: Owen Daniels, Houston Texans 4th Round Pick in 2006
Report: Jatavion Sanders was able to double down on a strong Sophomore season at Texas, improving his big-play ability by vaulting up 3.8 yards per reception and 1.6 yards per target. Despite his graceful route running and tenacity after the catch (2nd in the Power Five), Sanders could use some tool sharpening in the run-blocking department.
Projection: I have Sanders graded as my TE2 in the 2024 draft class with an early 3rd round grade. There is a large tier drop between him and TE3, which has the potential to force another team’s hand early in the second round. With an impressive showing in Indianapolis, it would be reasonable to begin hearing his name mentioned around pick No. 34 with the New England Patriots through pick No. 72 with the New York Jets.
NFL Combine Expectations: The tight end position has been undervalued in the NFL Draft over the last 10 seasons, so the likelihood of Sanders jumping into the 1st round is slim. However, the strength of the 2024 tight-end class is size rather than speed, and if Sanders can run sub-4.5 in the 40-yard dash, conversations will heat up quickly.
2024 Target Share Leaders, per Alex Dunlaps Deep Dig
No. 59 – Houston Texans – Jonathon Brooks, RB – Texas
Comparable Player: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys 4th Round Pick in 2019
Report: Finishing 3rd in the 2024 draft class with 3.91 yards after contact per attempt, Jonathon Brooks burst onto the field following the departure of Bijan Robinson. Robinson led the 2023 class with 4.17 yards after contact per attempt and was drafted eighth overall by the Falcons. Brooks runs with a patience that is often unteachable and can burst through the hole or bend the edge. Brooks will need to improve his pad level in the NFL, as he currently exhibits a healthy amount of surface area.
Projection: Before his mid-season leg injury, the assumed Doak Walker award winner was projected to begin the draft process as the consensus RB1. I moved him down the board due to his injury, but not by far. Brooks sits at RB2 with an early 3rd round draft grade. I expect up to six running backs to be drafted on day two, the same number as in 2022 when there was no first-rounder in the group.
NFL Combine Expectations: I have limited expectations from Jonathon Brooks as he recovers from a torn ACL on November 11th against TCU, as he is 3 months into an estimated 6- to 8-month recovery.
No. 103 – Carolina Panthers via WAS – Christian Jones, OT – Texas
Comparable Player: Trey Pipkins III, Los Angeles Chargers 3rd Round Pick in 2019
Report: Christian Jones showed great physicality and finishing power in the run game against top talents from Alabama and Washington. I caught up with Jones at the Senior Bowl last month and asked him what part of his game needed the most work. He responded, “My hand placement in situations during pass pro – I tend to get a little wide. I'd like to be a better student of the game, understanding tendencies from d-linemen. You can always become a better student of the game.”
Projection: This year is regarded as the “draft of the decade” for offensive tackle depth, and Jones finds himself at the backend of the 2nd tier among the consensus. I have him as the fifth overall right tackle and 10th overall graded tackle in the class. With a 5th-round grade, I predict Jones to be drafted late on day two or in the early portion of the 4th round due to positional importance.
NFL Combine Expectations: Because the pads came off after the Senior Bowl, the best that Christian Jones can do is put his best foot forward in interviews and show his flexibility and movement skills in open-field drills alongside the best players at his position.
