2018 Texas Longhorns season predictions

[JHop6714]

Time for the fun speculating to get us through these final 6 weeks!

Saturday Sep. 1 at Maryland Terrapins
FedEx Field, Landover, MD 11:00am CT FS1
We shouldn't get caught napping this year. It'll probably take some time to get things rolling, but I think we will win this one by 10 points.
WIN 1-0

Saturday Sep. 8 Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Darrell K Royal - TX Mem. Stadium, Austin, TX 7:00pm CT LHN
Home opener. Tulsa will probably be better than some of the other gimme games we usually play, but we should win this one easily while taking advantage of the new redshirt rule and playing some freshmen.
WIN 2-0

Saturday Sep. 15 USC Trojans
Darrell K Royal - TX Mem. Stadium, Austin, TX 7:00pm CT
This one is so hard to predict. We almost won it last year, and this year we have them in Austin. They have a new QB coming in. It really all depends on how strong our offense has improved. I think the revenge factor helps and we win by 3 or 7.
WIN 3-0

Saturday Sep. 22 TCU Horned Frogs
Darrell K Royal - TX Mem. Stadium, Austin, TX
I'll believe it when I see it. TCU has had our number for years. Despite them also retooling, I think we will be worn out after playing lights-out against USC. This game will be the closest one we've had against them in a long time, but I still think TCU finds a way to win it. They're our achilles heel.
LOSS 3-1

Saturday Sep. 29 at Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
This could easily be a trap game. After focusing our efforts on finding ways to topple USC and TCU, and with Oklahoma coming up next, this trip to Manhattan seems awfully dangerous. I think it's a coin flip game, and if we happen to beat TCU we may lose this one. Likewise if we lose to USC and think we might win this one. But I'm just not sure our offense can beat their defense and our defense stop their offense at Bill Snyder Stadium.
LOSS 3-2

Saturday Oct. 6 at Oklahoma Sooners
Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX
Last year's late-game loss and Baker's antics will give our team enough motivation to take this one. I predict a win by 10-14 points in Dallas.
WIN 4-2

Saturday Oct. 13 Baylor Bears
Darrell K Royal - TX Mem. Stadium, Austin, TX
Baylor will be better, but not better enough.
WIN 5-2

Saturday Oct. 27 at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Oh how nice a week off will be. This will help us prepare for a rebuilding Oklahoma State team and we will take care of business in Stillwater, earning a bowl berth.
WIN 6-2

Saturday Nov. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers
Darrell K Royal - TX Mem. Stadium, Austin, TX
Circle November 3rd on your calendars. I really feel that this game is the pivot point on how this season's team will be viewed. Take this one from an improved WVU team, and you're on your way to being a championship squad. Lose this one, and you're an improved good but still-not-great one.
LOSS 6-3

Saturday Nov. 10 at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
No repeat of last year's shenanigans. Texas Tech has no business beating UT. We ignore the extra-curriculars in Lubbock and beat them by two touchdowns.
WIN 7-3

Saturday Nov. 17 Iowa State Cyclones
Darrell K Royal - TX Mem. Stadium, Austin, TX 7:00pm CT LHN
Iowa State often plays spoiler, but we have them in Austin and we will be prepared.
WIN 8-3

Friday Nov. 23 at Kansas Jayhawks
Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS 11:00am CT FS1
Don't make me think about 2016 ever again...
WIN 9-3

Saturday Dec. 1

Big 12 Championship Game
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
9-3 is my honest prediction for how this season will go, with losses coming to TCU, one of USC or Kansas State, and one of West Virginia or Oklahoma. If we can beat OU and also beat WVU, we should finish the season 10-2 and compete in the Big XII title game against either Oklahoma, TCU, or West Virginia. The confidence with which we played our Bowl Game last year would make me think we could win the Big XII championship game, especially against a WVU, but I'm not sure we'd be able to defeat an angered end-of-season Oklahoma or a Gary Patterson-ready TCU. Thus, we probably head into the bowl game at 9-3 or having lost this one at 10-3.

Bowl Game
Herman's got this.
WIN 10-3 or 11-3

 

[mm42]

Looks like 6 likely wins, 1 likely lose, and split the the 5 toss ups. So 8 or 9 wins seems likely.
This schedule shows strength of schedule is overrated. A top team would love this schedule, only 1 really elite team. But a bad team team would hate it. A lot of pretty good not real good teams.

 

[westx]

We have an average offense who can develop into a slightly above average offense. Even with our very good running backs and elite receiving corps cannot make up for our quarterbacks, offensive line and offensive play calling. Our D will keep us in most games unless they get sick of bailing us out of successive 3 and outs. If we can get average production from the offense, we win 8 games.

 

[FlourBluffHorn]

4 or 5 games, the distraction has already started, I look for it to factor in




Hook'em

 

[q1w2e3]

Looks like 6 likely wins, 1 likely lose, and split the the 5 toss ups. So 8 or 9 wins seems likely.
This schedule shows strength of schedule is overrated. A top team would love this schedule, only 1 really elite team. But a bad team team would hate it. A lot of pretty good not real good teams.

I don't necessarily disagree with your first part, but I don't follow the strength of schedule claims. What do you define as an "elite" team? How many schedules ever have more than one or two "elite" teams on them anyway?

I'm assuming you are referring to OU as the elite team on Texas's schedule, so you are leaving off USC which is the third or fourth most talented team in college football. That's okay, but if so where do we draw the line at elite?

Let's look at your schedule or a typical SEC schedule: A&M only ever plays one elite team, two at most. Alabama and that's it, unless a unique year.....like this one with Clemson. Unless an SEC team draws Alabama and Georgia this year they only have one elite team on their schedule.

But you also have an inordinate amount of weak and average games, and even three games against 1AA teams that are literally extra bye weeks to rest players, practice and prepare for real games, and get reps and training for youngsters.

Only in the Big 10, which is right now the undisputed best conference in college football, will any team possibly pull two or three elite teams....or Notre Dame because of their unique scheduling..

 

[q1w2e3]

Hmmm. I don't follow your

I don't necessarily disagree with your first part, but I don't follow the strength of schedule claims. What do you define as an "elite" team? How many schedules ever have more than one or two "elite" teams on them anyway?

I'm assuming you are referring to OU as the elite team on Texas's schedule, so you are leaving off USC which is the third or fourth most talented team in college football. That's okay, but if so where do we draw the line at elite?

Let's look at your schedule or a typical SEC schedule: A&M only ever plays one elite team, two at most. Alabama and that's it, unless a unique year.....like this one with Clemson. Unless an SEC team draws Alabama and Georgia this year they only have one elite team on their schedule.

But you also have an inordinate amount of weak and average games, and even three games against 1AA teams that are literally extra bye weeks to rest players, practice and prepare for real games, and get reps and training for youngsters.

Only in the Big 10, which is right now the undisputed best conference in college football, will any team possibly pull two or three elite teams....or Notre Dame because of their unique scheduling..

mm42, think of it this way: If we just flip flopped schedules for Texas and A&M last year, A&M probably goes between 4-8 and 6-6 and Texas would be at 7-5 to 8-4.

 

[2300 Nueces]

We've covered this already. Eight wins.... nine if they can win the bowl game. As FB said, distractions from sour puss players have arisen and will be a distraction. Gonna have to get rid of them. Don't kid yourself, 11 wins ain't happening.

 

[mm42]

[QUOTE="q1w2e3, post: 10772445, member: 8872"I'm assuming you are referring to OU as the elite team on Texas's schedule, so you are leaving off USC which is the third or fourth most talented team in college football. That's okay, but if so where do we draw the line at elite?
..[/QUOTE]
I am sure I will miss someone or just be wrong, but there are probably only 5 or 6 elite teams each year. So I'd say elite this year includes Bama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
Probably 15 teams in the next tier, I'd include TCU and Auburn for sure in this category. USC, WV, South Carolina, & Miss St are all borderline for this 2nd tier.
3rd tier is large and includes all the pretty good teams like UT & A&M. Okie St, Kansas St, & LSU also land here.
Tx Tech, Iowa St, Ole Miss, and Arkansas are a tier below that.

 

[q1w2e3]

[QUOTE="q1w2e3, post: 10772445, member: 8872"I'm assuming you are referring to OU as the elite team on Texas's schedule, so you are leaving off USC which is the third or fourth most talented team in college football. That's okay, but if so where do we draw the line at elite?
..

I am sure I will miss someone or just be wrong, but there are probably only 5 or 6 elite teams each year. So I'd say elite this year includes Bama, Clemson, Ohio St, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
Probably 15 teams in the next tier, I'd include TCU and Auburn for sure in this category. USC, WV, South Carolina, & Miss St are all borderline for this 2nd tier.
3rd tier is large and includes all the pretty good teams like UT & A&M. Okie St, Kansas St, & LSU also land here.
Tx Tech, Iowa St, Ole Miss, and Arkansas are a tier below that.[/QUOTE]

If USC is in 2nd tier then lumping South Carolina and Miss St in there doesn't make sense. USC has been in back to back NY6 bowl games, and has back to back top 4 recruiting classes. They are on another level. South Carolina went 8-4 in the by far worst division of all of power five. That includes a 1 point home win vs. LA TECH (seriously), and a loss to Texas A&M. They are not 2nd tier. Same with Miss St....they were absolutely blown out of the water in two separate games last year and the only decent win was against LSU right before TROY beat them at home LOL.

3rd tier: You cannot lump Oklahoma St. in the same tier as A&M, that is ludicrous. I'm also skeptical of lumping A&M with KSU, remember when they physically manhandled A&M at home recently? It may be a few years until A&M is at that level.

 

[LonghornMM]

4 or 5 games, the distraction has already started, I look for it to factor in

Hook'em

FB/Negative Nelly, Texas isn't going to win only 4 or 5 games this year. Gimme a break.

 

[mm42]

If USC is in 2nd tier then lumping South Carolina and Miss St in there doesn't make sense. USC has been in back to back NY6 bowl games, and has back to back top 4 recruiting classes. They are on another level. South Carolina went 8-4 in the by far worst division of all of power five. That includes a 1 point home win vs. LA TECH (seriously), and a loss to Texas A&M. They are not 2nd tier. Same with Miss St....they were absolutely blown out of the water in two separate games last year and the only decent win was against LSU right before TROY beat them at home LOL.

3rd tier: You cannot lump Oklahoma St. in the same tier as A&M, that is ludicrous. I'm also skeptical of lumping A&M with KSU, remember when they physically manhandled A&M at home recently? It may be a few years until A&M is at that level.

Not that it is perfect, but I just checked ESPN's power ratings to see if my thoughts were close to the experts.

So Elite to me per ESPN
#1 Clemson
#2 Alabama
#7 Auburn
#8 Oklahoma

Tier 2
#15 Mississippi State
#17 USC
#20 Okie State
#25 LSU

Tier 3
#27 TCU
#28 South Carolina

Tier 4
#37 Texas Tech
#38 Baylor
#39 West Virginia
#40 Iowa State
#46 Kansas State
#50 Arkansas
#60 Kentucky

All other over #60 on both schedules& so I am considering all those in the not good tier.
I had TCU, West Virginia, Kansas St, and South Carolina overrated for sure. Probably had Auburn & Okie State too low. But I still think my original point is valid.

 

[q1w2e3]

Not that it is perfect, but I just checked ESPN's power ratings to see if my thoughts were close to the experts.

So Elite to me per ESPN
#1 Clemson
#2 Alabama
#7 Auburn
#8 Oklahoma

Tier 2
#15 Mississippi State
#17 USC
#20 Okie State
#25 LSU

Tier 3
#27 TCU
#28 South Carolina

Tier 4
#37 Texas Tech
#38 Baylor
#39 West Virginia
#40 Iowa State
#46 Kansas State
#50 Arkansas
#60 Kentucky

All other over 60 on both schedules. So I had TCU, West Virginia and South Carolina overrated for sure. Probably had Auburn & Okie State too low. But I still think my original point is valid.

The last thing I'm going to do is blindly take pre-season rankings to call all the shots. Some of those rankings are really, really strange. That post just made things worse, we lost progress. West Virginia behind Baylor?? JEEZUS did you actually read these before you posted?

-Auburn is not tier 1.
-TCU is in any tier Auburn is in, and South Carolina is not in a tier with TCU
WVU tier 3 @39??

 

[mm42]

The last thing I'm going to do is blindly take pre-season rankings to call all the shots. Some of those rankings are really, really strange. That post just made things worse, we lost progress. West Virginia behind Baylor?? JEEZUS did you actually read these before you posted?

-Auburn is not tier 1.
-TCU is in any tier Auburn is in, and South Carolina is not in a tier with TCU
WVU tier 3 @39??

I said what I thought in the original thread, you disagreed. I thought it would be interesting to see what the ratings were. We are both biased (I admit it & you think USC has top 4 talent), so I was just bringing in what the supposed experts think.

By the way, some of it is weird. WV seems way too low and KSU seems a little low, and I am shocked Baylor, TX Tech, Arkansas, and Kentucky made their list.

I think you are wrong about Mississippi State. They have everybody back, and they went to shit only after their QB got hurt. He is really good and back healthy. Auburn is better than TCU, their DL is the best in the SEC and they have an excellent QB.

 

[q1w2e3]

I said what I thought in the original thread, you disagreed. I thought it would be interesting to see what the ratings were. We are both biased (I admit it & you think USC has top 4 talent), so I was just bringing in what the supposed experts think.

By the way, some of it is weird. WV seems way too low and KSU seems a little low, and I am shocked Baylor, TX Tech, Arkansas, and Kentucky made their list.

I think you are wrong about Mississippi State. They have everybody back, and they went to shit only after their QB got hurt. He is really good and back healthy. Auburn is better than TCU, their DL is the best in the SEC and they have an excellent QB.

I'm not just blindly projecting next season, I'm taking into account the whole picture.

-The experts say USC has top 4 talent, not me. They have three, top four ranked classes in the last 4 years (and all four, top 10) by the composite

-Miss St. QB was hurt in the last game of the season. Miss St. has been decent a few times with Dak and were last year but not special or even close to it. They were blown out twice last year and their best win was LSU BEFORE Troy beat them. Also, they lost their coach and have a new unproven coach.

-Auburn hasn't been any better than TCU in a long time. Auburn lost to a non-power five team in their bowl game. They have also lost to Texas A&M at home THREE times in the last 6 years. They are not elite.

 

[mm42]

When you say USC has a top 4 talent team, do you mean their last 4 classes averaged in the top 4, or are you saying they actually have one of the 4 most talented teams. It isn't the same thing, but I can agree if you are just going off high school internet star ratings.
If you use that as the measuring stick for most talented the BIG 12 would likely have 2 top 25 teams (texas & oklahoma) and the SEC would likely have 9 (bama, auburn, LSU, ole miss, a&m, florida, georgia, south carolina and tennessee). I think you have to include evaluation and development, but obviously recruiting is huge for overall talent.

 

[FlourBluffHorn]

FB/Negative Nelly, Texas isn't going to win only 4 or 5 games this year. Gimme a break.

I'm trying MM, I look at the schedule and I am scared of back to back losses for some reason, maybe the distraction from all this crap may hurt the players play, you know how everyone brings their A game when they play us ...some teams don't give a shit about the rest of the season but beating us, we always a open target just to get the PR anyway, I want them to win them all, hell that would be nice to see after all out toils and tears.


Hook'em

 

[clob94]

I thought I'd established with you that aggy did draw a tougher schedule than texas this year. Why are we still riding this pony?
Is this your ready made cop out cash register that you use to dole out excuses to your performance this year? I've already told you, year one is a throw away. Your record year 1 at aggy is completely irrelevant and in no way is a idication of how jimbo will do over the next 10 years (unless of course you have some weird anomoly of a season where totally unexpected sh!t happens). You're a 6-6 team AT best next year (barring anomolies).

Next question......

Not that it is perfect, but I just checked ESPN's power ratings to see if my thoughts were close to the experts.

So Elite to me per ESPN
#1 Clemson
#2 Alabama
#7 Auburn
#8 Oklahoma

Tier 2
#15 Mississippi State
#17 USC
#20 Okie State
#25 LSU

Tier 3
#27 TCU
#28 South Carolina

Tier 4
#37 Texas Tech
#38 Baylor
#39 West Virginia
#40 Iowa State
#46 Kansas State
#50 Arkansas
#60 Kentucky

All other over #60 on both schedules& so I am considering all those in the not good tier.
I had TCU, West Virginia, Kansas St, and South Carolina overrated for sure. Probably had Auburn & Okie State too low. But I still think my original point is valid.

 

[mm42]

I thought I'd established with you that aggy did draw a tougher schedule than texas this year. Why are we still riding this pony?
Is this your ready made cop out cash register that you use to dole out excuses to your performance this year? I've already told you, year one is a throw away. Your record year 1 at aggy is completely irrelevant and in no way is a idication of how jimbo will do over the next 10 years (unless of course you have some weird anomoly of a season where totally unexpected sh!t happens). You're a 6-6 team AT best next year (barring anomolies).

Next question......

I was responding to q1w2e3 not clob94. At least we agree on the schedules.

 

[Belldozer1]

I'm trying MM, I look at the schedule and I am scared of back to back losses for some reason, maybe the distraction from all this crap may hurt the players play, you know how everyone brings their A game when they play us ...some teams don't give a shit about the rest of the season but beating us, we always a open target just to get the PR anyway, I want them to win them all, hell that would be nice to see after all out toils and tears.


Hook'em

FB, my offer still stands, if you want to piggyback on my Sooners until you feel comfortable, you're more than welcome hoss, lol

 

[BringBackRoyal]

I see 7 or 8 regular-season wins this year if the team stays mostly healthy. I think the offense will improve somewhat but still disappoint overall. Concerned about the DL and LBs (depth, especially).

I hope the rosier predictions prevail.

 

[clob94]

Want to know how I know ketch is hedging his bets? Check out the cover story on OB today....

It's referencing how Tommy's rebuild has been more difficult than people realize. This is journalism codespeak for "we ain't there yet".

 

[q1w2e3]

When you say USC has a top 4 talent team, do you mean their last 4 classes averaged in the top 4, or are you saying they actually have one of the 4 most talented teams. It isn't the same thing, but I can agree if you are just going off high school internet star ratings.
If you use that as the measuring stick for most talented the BIG 12 would likely have 2 top 25 teams (texas & oklahoma) and the SEC would likely have 9 (bama, auburn, LSU, ole miss, a&m, florida, georgia, south carolina and tennessee). I think you have to include evaluation and development, but obviously recruiting is huge for overall talent.

I don't think anyone thinks recruiting rankings are an exact science, far from it. However, when you take a total snapshot of two programs like USC and MissST., there is no way to objectively put those two programs in the same tier. Miss St. as a recent team, or as a program in general, hasn't been on the same planet as USC

By the way, I'm still waiting for you to provide any objective basis for claiming A&M has a tougher schedule than Texas this season.

 

[mm42]

I don't think anyone thinks recruiting rankings are an exact science, far from it. However, when you take a total snapshot of two programs like USC and MissST., there is no way to objectively put those two programs in the same tier. Miss St. as a recent team, or as a program in general, hasn't been on the same planet as USC

By the way, I'm still waiting for you to provide any objective basis for claiming A&M has a tougher schedule than Texas this season.

Well I posted the power rankings of the teams on both schedules, and Clob pretty much told me to stop as it was already agreed upon. So I have at least one believer.

As far as USC and Miss St., I 100% agree USC is by far the better program. I'm only talking about this year.

Would love to see your commentary on why the BIG12 only has 2 top 25 recruiting programs over the last 4 years vs. the SEC's 9. My guess is you will go with bias, just like the NFL draft is bias.

 

[clob94]

Well....... the DBs seem to be having fun.........

 

[q1w2e3]

Well I posted the power rankings of the teams on both schedules, and Clob pretty much told me to stop as it was already agreed upon. So I have at least one believer.

As far as USC and Miss St., I 100% agree USC is by far the better program. I'm only talking about this year.

Would love to see your commentary on why the BIG12 only has 2 top 25 recruiting programs over the last 4 years vs. the SEC's 9. My guess is you will go with bias, just like the NFL draft is bias.

Well, if you want to use ESPN's power rankings then the SOS has already been calculated for you. So using your preferred SOS rankings for the upcoming season Texas has the #4 toughest schedule in the entire country and A&M is way down the list at #29. Any questions?

In fact eight of the ten BIg 12 teams have top 25 ranked SOS, while only ONE single SEC team (LSU) has a top 25 SOS.

As far as your recruiting rankings question, I'm not sure as I have never thought about it. I think you are probably right there is going to be at least some bias in for-profit internet sites catering to fanbases, but I don't know or care.

I do see what happens on the field though, and there is definitely no superiority in actual football games played between SEC and BIg 12, or any other conference.

 

[outhereincali]

This is my prediction

I think we'll have an incredible secondary. Everyone knows about Coach Orlando but we also have Craig Naivar and Jason Washington in the secondary. We all saw the dramatic improvement last year. Combine the returning players with the 4 and 5* recruits we have coming in and I will almost feel sorry for the competition. Texas has become dbu again.

 

[mm42]

I do see what happens on the field though, and there is definitely no superiority in actual football games played between SEC and BIg 12, or any other conference.

So let me get this straight. Players come into the SEC much more highly thought of than those coming into the BIG12. The average class in the SEC ranks just over 20th nationally, whereas the average BIG12 class comes in around 40th.

Then when those players are available to be drafted by the NFL 3 times more get selected from the SEC than the BIG12.

But somehow magically, there is a 4 year window where players not nearly as good coming or going are equal for 4 years. Even with this magical 4 year transformation, the SEC has won 9 of the last 12 national champions, and even if Alabama didn't count - they would still have 100% more championships than any other conference over that period. And even without Alabama, the SEC would have more championships than all other conference combined over that period.

So I am struggling to see why you want to argue schedules. Why not just say you think Texas would likely beat A&M if they played this year, I would agree with you.

 

[clob94]

Over the last 5 years in head to head match ups:

ACC 28 wins SEC 27 wins

I think this argument is settled.

So let me get this straight. Players come into the SEC much more highly thought of than those coming into the BIG12. The average class in the SEC ranks just over 20th nationally, whereas the average BIG12 class comes in around 40th.

Then when those players are available to be drafted by the NFL 3 times more get selected from the SEC than the BIG12.

But somehow magically, there is a 4 year window where players not nearly as good coming or going are equal for 4 years. Even with this magical 4 year transformation, the SEC has won 9 of the last 12 national champions, and even if Alabama didn't count - they would still have 100% more championships than any other conference over that period. And even without Alabama, the SEC would have more championships than all other conference combined over that period.

So I am struggling to see why you want to argue schedules. Why not just say you think Texas would likely beat A&M if they played this year, I would agree with you.

 

[Longyac]

The disgruntled stuff is blown out of proportion. Elliott is mad that he fell to the sixth round and wants to blame Herman instead of admitting the staff was right and he wasn’t ready.

The players talked about buy in for the bowl game. Hager talked about buy in at media days. But that doesn’t sell like a Twitter blast.

 

[mm42]

Over the last 5 years in head to head match ups:

ACC 28 wins SEC 27 wins

I think this argument is settled.

Clob94. Due to basic geography the vast majority of those games were SEC East vs. the ACC. So I admit the ACC has been a little better than the SEC East. Since we joined the SEC the West is 63-28 over the SEC East. And the vast majority of our games are vs the much stronger SEC West. So I'm not sure you proved the point you meant to prove.