Schumer is on the verge of making his 2nd major gaffe with the two gaffes potentially dramatically impacting the court:
Gaffe 1 - Forcing the R's to use the nuclear option, something they were able to get the moderate R's to do because they were merely replacing a far right Scalia with a far right Gorsuch. This is a gaffe, because they would not have been able to get the nuclear option through if replacing the moderate Kennedy with a far right Kavanaugh type. Collins/Murkowski/Flake/Corker would not have supported the nuclear options in a Kennedy for Kavanaugh type of swap. They were OK with a Scalia for Gorsuch swap. Schumer should have allowed for a number of his caucus to vote for Gorsuch.
Gaffe 2 - Forcing Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp to remain fence sitters through the heart of the Kavanaugh storm. This strategy, will likely cost the D's two of the 3 senate seats, and possibly all 3 of these seats. Kavanugh gets nominated anyway, and Schumer loses 2 seats because of a misplayed hand. Smart money tells Manchin and McCaskill they can come out in support of Kavanaugh NOW. That is the only way to secure their seats through the midterms. If they sit the fence and then vote no, all 3 are potentially out, and there's about an 85% chance at least 2 are out.
The combo of those gaffes likely gives the R's a 53-47 seat majority while only requiring 51 votes to replace a justice. At a minimum, Thomas probably retires in 18 months and is replaced by a far right 50 year old. Plausibly, Thomas and one or both of Ginsburg and Breyer are replaced by far right conservatives. Even if Kavanaugh is not confirmed, Trump will be able to put whomever he wants in that seat with a 53-47 Senate edge over the next two years. Heck, he may even nominate Kavanaugh again just to shove it down Schumer's throat.
Schumer plays checkers, not chess.
Gaffe 1 - Forcing the R's to use the nuclear option, something they were able to get the moderate R's to do because they were merely replacing a far right Scalia with a far right Gorsuch. This is a gaffe, because they would not have been able to get the nuclear option through if replacing the moderate Kennedy with a far right Kavanaugh type. Collins/Murkowski/Flake/Corker would not have supported the nuclear options in a Kennedy for Kavanaugh type of swap. They were OK with a Scalia for Gorsuch swap. Schumer should have allowed for a number of his caucus to vote for Gorsuch.
Gaffe 2 - Forcing Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp to remain fence sitters through the heart of the Kavanaugh storm. This strategy, will likely cost the D's two of the 3 senate seats, and possibly all 3 of these seats. Kavanugh gets nominated anyway, and Schumer loses 2 seats because of a misplayed hand. Smart money tells Manchin and McCaskill they can come out in support of Kavanaugh NOW. That is the only way to secure their seats through the midterms. If they sit the fence and then vote no, all 3 are potentially out, and there's about an 85% chance at least 2 are out.
The combo of those gaffes likely gives the R's a 53-47 seat majority while only requiring 51 votes to replace a justice. At a minimum, Thomas probably retires in 18 months and is replaced by a far right 50 year old. Plausibly, Thomas and one or both of Ginsburg and Breyer are replaced by far right conservatives. Even if Kavanaugh is not confirmed, Trump will be able to put whomever he wants in that seat with a 53-47 Senate edge over the next two years. Heck, he may even nominate Kavanaugh again just to shove it down Schumer's throat.
Schumer plays checkers, not chess.
