The craziness of this weekend’s college football schedule didn’t really do that much to change my projections from last week.
I have not waivered in my prediction that Ohio State will beat Oregon in the Big Ten title game and the Buckeyes will be the one seed with the Ducks slotting into the five seed.
I still have Texas winning the SEC over Georgia (although as of last week, I thought it would be against Alabama). However, I now believe that even if Texas loses this week, they will still be in the CFP. Alabama and Ole Miss’s losses just added to the margin for error.
I still have SMU winning the ACC and Boise State winning the Mountain West Conference and getting the three and four seeds. However, SMU’s rise in the rankings now leads me to believe that will be good enough for them to get the three seed and the Broncos to get the four seed.
Now we get into the at-large spots (and the fifth conference champion).
Penn State may not have a big win that they can hang their hat on, but they keep winning the games they’re supposed to win and they’ll be the six seed
I very nearly flipped Penn State and Notre Dame following the Fighting Irish’s win over Army but I’m not sure how much that win will actually help. By the way, Notre Dame’s best win continues to be their victory over Texas A&M. However, unlike Texas, if Notre Dame loses this week they’re out.
Georgia all but locked up a CFP bid by virtue of landing their spot in the SEC title game. Of course, if they go and lose to Georgia Tech this week, all bets are off. Then, a loss in the SEC Championship game would give them four losses on the season and they would be out.
Tennessee need only beat Vanderbilt this week (which is not the pushover they traditionally are) and they are in the playoffs.
And this is where I really struggled.
Part of me still really wanted to put Alabama in over Miami. The Tide, with two losses, were still ranked ahead of Miami with only one loss in last week’s CFP rankings. If Miami were to lose again in the ACC Championship game, as I predict, then it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to put the Tide right back in front of Miami again. After all, Miami has been flirting with disaster all year and so they’re not exactly the strongest team. But after really thinking about it, I realized that would mean punishing the Hurricanes for making it to their conference championship game and losing and I don’t think the CFP committee will do that. So Miami gets in.
Bama could still get back in if Miami loses to Syracuse this week and Clemson loses to South Carolina (which I am predicting will happen). That would put Clemson in the ACC Championship game against SMU. Then a victory for the Mustangs would knock the ACC back down to a one-bid league and I think a three loss Bama would be the beneficiary.
As of about 2:00 pm last Saturday, I would have told you that Indiana was out. But then Florida beat Ole Miss and OU beat Bama and all of a sudden, the Hoosiers have life again. In fact, I may have them slotted too low. It’s entirely possible that IU is the ten seed and Miami is the 11 seed.
Finally, I can’t begin to tell you what the heck will happen in the Big 12, but no matter who ends up winning that cluster-f of a conference, I think they’ll be the lowest ranked conference champion and be the 12-seed.
OREGON VS. ARIZONA STATE
The old Pac-12 rides again!
PENN STATE VS. INDIANA
The matchup between Big Ten foes (who did not play each other this year) will settle the debate over which Big Ten team with one loss and no wins of any significance is the better Big Ten team with one loss and no wins of any significance.
NOTRE DAME VS. MIAMI
Catholics vs. Convicts CFP edition! Can the Hurricanes go into South Bend in late December and actually survive the cold to pull off the upset?
GEORGIA VS. TENNESSEE
This ends up being the only rematch on the docket. The Volunteers have to once again travel to Athens to take on the Bulldogs. Good luck with all of that!
