Daily Short #52, September 1st, 2017: Armanti Redemption, Charles Omenihu, New Zeke Fantasy Dilemma
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Here we are in September. Before we know it, it will be jacket weather in the evenings, and on Sundays that don't seem right without the theme music of NFL broadcasts in the background. It's the opening of dove season and a long Labor Day Weekend's on layaway. It's the summer giving way to the fall (even though the fall weather is still a little ways off here in Texas) and it's the time where every football fanbase has an undefeated team to tie their optimistic hopes to. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
Here are a few random, seasonal musings before we have a real, actual, on-field football performance from the Longhorns to talk about:
- Senior Armanti Foreman being third on the depth chart at the slot WR position continues to be a head-scratcher to me. This is a player with rare, rare tools. He has 10" hands and he is clearly faster than his brother D'Onta who is a 4.45-40-time runner. He has effortless change of direction and acceleration abilities out of his cuts and he's substantial enough to be a load to take down after catch. He's reportedly in the best shape of his life, motivated (it would seem) by seeing the NFL lifestyle his twin brother is currently enjoying. I'm not sure how the staff feels about Foreman. Clearly, they seem to favor guys like Reggie Hemphill-Mapps and Lil'Jordan Humphrey. However, if someone is stepping up and making plays in ballgames, coaches' opinions will change, and quickly. Put me in the camp of those who believe that when Armanti Foreman gets a chance to step up and be a difference-maker in the actual games, he'll take advantage and earn his way up the depth chart.
- @Anwar Richardson received some blowback from our joint "Two Deep Insider Nuggets" breakdown in the War Room for his comments on LB Naashon Hughes and DE Charles Omenihu. I can understand it, as it wouldn't make much sense to me either if I didn't know better. Let me tell you that people close to the team are extremely high on Hughes and love him as a major team leader. His backup, Jeffrey McCulloch, is currently viewed as not being as dependable. This is another situation that seems to me like one that could change from the staff once the actual games start. Hughes has been a low-impact player in-season thus far at Texas while McCulloch has shown he is a baller when the lights come on. As for Anwar's Omenihu praise, I heard one person compare Omenihu to Charles Haley. The staff LOVES him. Is it that hard to believe that Charles O., who's now well over 280 pounds and a full-grown man, may finally be reaching the ceiling that Texas fans have hoped for since he was a string-bean recruit?
- I'm not a lawyer, arbitrator or NFL/NFLPA policy expert, but this stuff with the Zeke suspension and the fallout of the appeal is starting to sound like it's gonna get hairy. The NFLPA filed a federal lawsuit late last night in Plano accusing the NFL of conspiracy in hopes of gaining an injunction. Elliott and the NFLPA -- clearly with the full support of Jerry Jones -- have struck back with the nuclear option as promised.
I'll try to unpack what this means: an injunction is like what Tom Brady got in 2015 when his DeflateGate stuff was put off until the 2016 season. In theory, if the injunction were granted, Zeke would face his legal battle with the NFL over the suspension sometime in 2018 judging by how slow the court system moves, leaving him eligible to play for the 2017 season. That is, unless Goodell strikes back with his own nuclear weapon: placement on the exempt/commissioner's permission list which is, per NFL.com:
"The Exempt List is a special player status available to clubs only in unusual circumstances. The List includes those players who have been declared by the Commissioner to be temporarily exempt from counting within the Active List limit. Only the Commissioner has the authority to place a player on the Exempt List; clubs have no such authority, and no exemption, regardless of circumstances, is automatic. The Commissioner also has the authority to determine in advance whether a player's time on the Exempt List will be finite or will continue until the Commissioner deems the exemption should be lifted and the player returned to the Active List."
This rarely-levied protocol is best remembered for Goodell's recent use of it against Adrian Peterson during the time of his child-abuse proceedings. However, it seems to me that both sides -- the NFL and Elliott -- might be happier to bury the hatchet in some sense and agree to terms on a lessened penalty to avoid the legal entanglements that could await in the offseason. If the NFL really did botch the Elliott investigation as is accused in the federal suit, then it may want to get out ahead of this and work a deal that allows the league to save face. If that happens, it will have to happen quickly -- clearly.
What this means to me heading into a big weekend of fantasy drafts is that I have some adjusting to do regarding Elliott's placement on our cheat sheets at RosterWatch. I'm no longer operating on the idea that we're likely to have a six-game suspension here. I understand that is the worst-case scenario for Elliott, but I no longer see it as the most likely. Nor do I see the granting of the injunction, allowing Elliott to play for (presumably) the entire 2017 season as the most likely. I see a compromise and a reduction in games as being most likely and I think that reduction is likely to be to 3-4 games.
So, operating on that assumption (and realizing that it is a somewhat risky one, since this could all be for nothing and the six-game ban could easily stay fully intact) I'll be personally looking to target Elliott in more of an early-second round capacity for 12-team drafts this weekend. I wouldn't draft him ahead of guys like Jay Ajayi or Devonta Freeman, but after those guys are off the board, it's a decision you may have to make.
It's a risky one with big upside as Elliott at that point in the draft represents an immense value if somehow he gets to play the entire 16-game fantasy schedule and good enough value if he misses only 3-4 games. If you have a draft this weekend and are picking around the first and second round turn, you're going to have to come into your draft with a plan for how you intend to handle Zeke. I'm just as fine taking a total hands off approach as I am with taking a total "all-in" approach, but it's a choice you'll have to make for yourself.
Another reminder that fantasy football is full of brutal decisions. Welcome back to another season.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
Here we are in September. Before we know it, it will be jacket weather in the evenings, and on Sundays that don't seem right without the theme music of NFL broadcasts in the background. It's the opening of dove season and a long Labor Day Weekend's on layaway. It's the summer giving way to the fall (even though the fall weather is still a little ways off here in Texas) and it's the time where every football fanbase has an undefeated team to tie their optimistic hopes to. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
Here are a few random, seasonal musings before we have a real, actual, on-field football performance from the Longhorns to talk about:
- Senior Armanti Foreman being third on the depth chart at the slot WR position continues to be a head-scratcher to me. This is a player with rare, rare tools. He has 10" hands and he is clearly faster than his brother D'Onta who is a 4.45-40-time runner. He has effortless change of direction and acceleration abilities out of his cuts and he's substantial enough to be a load to take down after catch. He's reportedly in the best shape of his life, motivated (it would seem) by seeing the NFL lifestyle his twin brother is currently enjoying. I'm not sure how the staff feels about Foreman. Clearly, they seem to favor guys like Reggie Hemphill-Mapps and Lil'Jordan Humphrey. However, if someone is stepping up and making plays in ballgames, coaches' opinions will change, and quickly. Put me in the camp of those who believe that when Armanti Foreman gets a chance to step up and be a difference-maker in the actual games, he'll take advantage and earn his way up the depth chart.
- @Anwar Richardson received some blowback from our joint "Two Deep Insider Nuggets" breakdown in the War Room for his comments on LB Naashon Hughes and DE Charles Omenihu. I can understand it, as it wouldn't make much sense to me either if I didn't know better. Let me tell you that people close to the team are extremely high on Hughes and love him as a major team leader. His backup, Jeffrey McCulloch, is currently viewed as not being as dependable. This is another situation that seems to me like one that could change from the staff once the actual games start. Hughes has been a low-impact player in-season thus far at Texas while McCulloch has shown he is a baller when the lights come on. As for Anwar's Omenihu praise, I heard one person compare Omenihu to Charles Haley. The staff LOVES him. Is it that hard to believe that Charles O., who's now well over 280 pounds and a full-grown man, may finally be reaching the ceiling that Texas fans have hoped for since he was a string-bean recruit?
- I'm not a lawyer, arbitrator or NFL/NFLPA policy expert, but this stuff with the Zeke suspension and the fallout of the appeal is starting to sound like it's gonna get hairy. The NFLPA filed a federal lawsuit late last night in Plano accusing the NFL of conspiracy in hopes of gaining an injunction. Elliott and the NFLPA -- clearly with the full support of Jerry Jones -- have struck back with the nuclear option as promised.
I'll try to unpack what this means: an injunction is like what Tom Brady got in 2015 when his DeflateGate stuff was put off until the 2016 season. In theory, if the injunction were granted, Zeke would face his legal battle with the NFL over the suspension sometime in 2018 judging by how slow the court system moves, leaving him eligible to play for the 2017 season. That is, unless Goodell strikes back with his own nuclear weapon: placement on the exempt/commissioner's permission list which is, per NFL.com:
"The Exempt List is a special player status available to clubs only in unusual circumstances. The List includes those players who have been declared by the Commissioner to be temporarily exempt from counting within the Active List limit. Only the Commissioner has the authority to place a player on the Exempt List; clubs have no such authority, and no exemption, regardless of circumstances, is automatic. The Commissioner also has the authority to determine in advance whether a player's time on the Exempt List will be finite or will continue until the Commissioner deems the exemption should be lifted and the player returned to the Active List."
This rarely-levied protocol is best remembered for Goodell's recent use of it against Adrian Peterson during the time of his child-abuse proceedings. However, it seems to me that both sides -- the NFL and Elliott -- might be happier to bury the hatchet in some sense and agree to terms on a lessened penalty to avoid the legal entanglements that could await in the offseason. If the NFL really did botch the Elliott investigation as is accused in the federal suit, then it may want to get out ahead of this and work a deal that allows the league to save face. If that happens, it will have to happen quickly -- clearly.
What this means to me heading into a big weekend of fantasy drafts is that I have some adjusting to do regarding Elliott's placement on our cheat sheets at RosterWatch. I'm no longer operating on the idea that we're likely to have a six-game suspension here. I understand that is the worst-case scenario for Elliott, but I no longer see it as the most likely. Nor do I see the granting of the injunction, allowing Elliott to play for (presumably) the entire 2017 season as the most likely. I see a compromise and a reduction in games as being most likely and I think that reduction is likely to be to 3-4 games.
So, operating on that assumption (and realizing that it is a somewhat risky one, since this could all be for nothing and the six-game ban could easily stay fully intact) I'll be personally looking to target Elliott in more of an early-second round capacity for 12-team drafts this weekend. I wouldn't draft him ahead of guys like Jay Ajayi or Devonta Freeman, but after those guys are off the board, it's a decision you may have to make.
It's a risky one with big upside as Elliott at that point in the draft represents an immense value if somehow he gets to play the entire 16-game fantasy schedule and good enough value if he misses only 3-4 games. If you have a draft this weekend and are picking around the first and second round turn, you're going to have to come into your draft with a plan for how you intend to handle Zeke. I'm just as fine taking a total hands off approach as I am with taking a total "all-in" approach, but it's a choice you'll have to make for yourself.
Another reminder that fantasy football is full of brutal decisions. Welcome back to another season.
