Daily Short #73, October 4th, 2017: OL Thoughts and Grades
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LT Tristan Nickelson - 79 snaps
3 pressures, 3 run-stuffs, 2 QB hits, 1 TFL and 1 sack allowed
1 holding penalty
1 knockdown, 1 pin
DEEP DIG GRADE: 70.84
283 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 13.47 snaps (down from one per 20.4 snaps)
LG Patrick Vahe - 79 snaps
1 TFL allowed
4 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.39
306 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 27.18 snaps (up from one per 22.7 snaps)
C Zach Shackelford - 79 snaps
No disruption allowed
1 holding penalty
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.27
311 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 62.2 snaps (up from one per 58 snaps)
RG Jake McMillon - 79 snaps
1 pressure allowed
1 holding penalty
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.63
310 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 42.28 snaps (down from one per 46.2 snaps)
RT Derek Kerstetter - 79 snaps
1 pressure, 1 TFL allowed
2 holding penalties, 1 false start penalty
6 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.15
79 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 15.8 snaps
OVERALL THOUGHTS
On the Run Concept Mix
Versus Iowa State, the Texas offensive line run-blocked using inside-zone concepts 57% of the time, man/gap/power concepts 35% of the time, outside-zone concepts 5% of the time and designed QB draw concepts 2% of the time.
This mix seems like it is probably the optimal one when you consider the average grade among all players goes per concept ranked like this in the contest: inside zone, power, draw and outside zone. Outside zone is the only concept the group graded out negatively as a collective entity through the contest -- and as detailed here previously, it’s a run-concept that does not suit the current Connor Williams-less personnel for a multitude of reasons. However, you can understand the staff at least trying it out some when Toneil Carter was in the game as he’s a guy you’d like to try to stretch the defense against and let him cut upfield when he sees the space.
A new wrinkle in the power-run game was a quick little fold-block/H-Back lead concept up the middle. The center would down-block the one or two-tech and the covered guard would the pull around and work upfield to the linebacker with the H-back trailing as a lead blocker. The sub-group of the OL that had the most success on average across all plays was the interior of Vahe, Shackelford and McMillon on these concepts. It’s a wrinkle in the power-run game that the staff will surely look to integrate more as it plays to the current strength of the OL.
Interior of the line becoming a strength
That strength I mentioned is now clearly the three aforementioned players in the middle. Zach Shackelford has become the player many hoped he would ascend to in his sophomore year after an understandably rough true-freshman season. Shack has gone from a player who was an extreme liability in solo-base assignments in inside-zone to one who’s not really a strength, but certainly on his way there. He’s becoming a strength in the power-run game. His snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused number is currently best on the team (including Connor Williams pre-injury) and is triple his 20.1 snaps per as a freshman.
Tristan Nickelson needs to move to the bench
All I can do is report things as I see them and as the data dictates, but it appears it’s time for Tristan Nickelson to move to the bench. It may have been time for a whole spring and fall by now. Despite his backups (likely at this point Denzel Okafor and J.P. Urquidez) possessing unignorable warts and being definite liabilities themselves, I find it impossible that Texas couldn’t expect at least Nickelson-level replacement value from either of them. I’m not going to pile on the guy as he seems like a hard worker and a good dude and his shortcomings have been noted here in depth over the course of the last few seasons. With that said, it’s time to move on.
Kerstetter's Debut
If I’d have graded him based on the first half alone, it would look like Texas had its next future monster on its hands. In fact, Kerstetter might be Texas’ next monster. Unbelievable how those things happen. People will remember the three penalties and the terrible pressure allowed in the third quarter, but not me. Derek Kerstetter versus Iowa State is so much better than anything the Longhorns have seen at the right tackle position in recent years that it’s hard to even explain. If I’m an OL coach, give me Kerstetter over Perkins or Brandon Hodges -- certainly over Nickelson, Camhron Hughes or anything we’ve seen thus far from 2017 Denzel Okafor.
He was dominant on the play-side of power-concepts and generated substantial enough movement off the line of scrimmage in zone. His feet are so much better than I expected for a guy who I’d pegged as a surefire guard prospect at Army All-American practices and his initial punch comes from a balanced base while being well-positioned with hands inside. If it were up to me, I’d stick Kerstetter at left tackle for now and move Okafor into the RT slot. That’s a rag-tag lineup for now, but one that could truly come along through the season as the team awaits Williams’ return.
Run-game woes can’t be fully pinned on the OL
As the grades show, outside of Nickelson, the line blocked at an above-baseline level versus Iowa State. The bottom line is that the Texas runners need to do more to create on their own and take a brunt of the blame for the failures of the run-game. Tim Beck nor Zach Shackelford can do anything make Kyle Porter stop going down on first contact or to make Chris Warren finish runs like the physical beast that he should reasonably be given his size, speed and frame.
With this said, it’s on the staff to recognize that the RB position at Texas is not plug-and-play post-D’Onta Foreman and that Foreman was taken by the Houston Texans in the third round of the draft for a reason. As I warned all offseason, those who believed Chris Warren would step right into that mega-role based on one game versus Texas Tech were fooling themselves. Now, it’s up to Tom Herman’s apparent wonderboy Stan Drayton to work his magic to get something fixed. Whether that’s coaching the runners up better or giving larger snap percentages to Toneil Carter and Daniel Young, something needs to be done.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
LT Tristan Nickelson - 79 snaps
3 pressures, 3 run-stuffs, 2 QB hits, 1 TFL and 1 sack allowed
1 holding penalty
1 knockdown, 1 pin
DEEP DIG GRADE: 70.84
283 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 13.47 snaps (down from one per 20.4 snaps)
LG Patrick Vahe - 79 snaps
1 TFL allowed
4 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.39
306 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 27.18 snaps (up from one per 22.7 snaps)
C Zach Shackelford - 79 snaps
No disruption allowed
1 holding penalty
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.27
311 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 62.2 snaps (up from one per 58 snaps)
RG Jake McMillon - 79 snaps
1 pressure allowed
1 holding penalty
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.63
310 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 42.28 snaps (down from one per 46.2 snaps)
RT Derek Kerstetter - 79 snaps
1 pressure, 1 TFL allowed
2 holding penalties, 1 false start penalty
6 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.15
79 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 15.8 snaps
OVERALL THOUGHTS
On the Run Concept Mix
Versus Iowa State, the Texas offensive line run-blocked using inside-zone concepts 57% of the time, man/gap/power concepts 35% of the time, outside-zone concepts 5% of the time and designed QB draw concepts 2% of the time.
This mix seems like it is probably the optimal one when you consider the average grade among all players goes per concept ranked like this in the contest: inside zone, power, draw and outside zone. Outside zone is the only concept the group graded out negatively as a collective entity through the contest -- and as detailed here previously, it’s a run-concept that does not suit the current Connor Williams-less personnel for a multitude of reasons. However, you can understand the staff at least trying it out some when Toneil Carter was in the game as he’s a guy you’d like to try to stretch the defense against and let him cut upfield when he sees the space.
A new wrinkle in the power-run game was a quick little fold-block/H-Back lead concept up the middle. The center would down-block the one or two-tech and the covered guard would the pull around and work upfield to the linebacker with the H-back trailing as a lead blocker. The sub-group of the OL that had the most success on average across all plays was the interior of Vahe, Shackelford and McMillon on these concepts. It’s a wrinkle in the power-run game that the staff will surely look to integrate more as it plays to the current strength of the OL.
Interior of the line becoming a strength
That strength I mentioned is now clearly the three aforementioned players in the middle. Zach Shackelford has become the player many hoped he would ascend to in his sophomore year after an understandably rough true-freshman season. Shack has gone from a player who was an extreme liability in solo-base assignments in inside-zone to one who’s not really a strength, but certainly on his way there. He’s becoming a strength in the power-run game. His snaps per disruption allowed and/or penalty caused number is currently best on the team (including Connor Williams pre-injury) and is triple his 20.1 snaps per as a freshman.
Tristan Nickelson needs to move to the bench
All I can do is report things as I see them and as the data dictates, but it appears it’s time for Tristan Nickelson to move to the bench. It may have been time for a whole spring and fall by now. Despite his backups (likely at this point Denzel Okafor and J.P. Urquidez) possessing unignorable warts and being definite liabilities themselves, I find it impossible that Texas couldn’t expect at least Nickelson-level replacement value from either of them. I’m not going to pile on the guy as he seems like a hard worker and a good dude and his shortcomings have been noted here in depth over the course of the last few seasons. With that said, it’s time to move on.
Kerstetter's Debut
If I’d have graded him based on the first half alone, it would look like Texas had its next future monster on its hands. In fact, Kerstetter might be Texas’ next monster. Unbelievable how those things happen. People will remember the three penalties and the terrible pressure allowed in the third quarter, but not me. Derek Kerstetter versus Iowa State is so much better than anything the Longhorns have seen at the right tackle position in recent years that it’s hard to even explain. If I’m an OL coach, give me Kerstetter over Perkins or Brandon Hodges -- certainly over Nickelson, Camhron Hughes or anything we’ve seen thus far from 2017 Denzel Okafor.
He was dominant on the play-side of power-concepts and generated substantial enough movement off the line of scrimmage in zone. His feet are so much better than I expected for a guy who I’d pegged as a surefire guard prospect at Army All-American practices and his initial punch comes from a balanced base while being well-positioned with hands inside. If it were up to me, I’d stick Kerstetter at left tackle for now and move Okafor into the RT slot. That’s a rag-tag lineup for now, but one that could truly come along through the season as the team awaits Williams’ return.
Run-game woes can’t be fully pinned on the OL
As the grades show, outside of Nickelson, the line blocked at an above-baseline level versus Iowa State. The bottom line is that the Texas runners need to do more to create on their own and take a brunt of the blame for the failures of the run-game. Tim Beck nor Zach Shackelford can do anything make Kyle Porter stop going down on first contact or to make Chris Warren finish runs like the physical beast that he should reasonably be given his size, speed and frame.
With this said, it’s on the staff to recognize that the RB position at Texas is not plug-and-play post-D’Onta Foreman and that Foreman was taken by the Houston Texans in the third round of the draft for a reason. As I warned all offseason, those who believed Chris Warren would step right into that mega-role based on one game versus Texas Tech were fooling themselves. Now, it’s up to Tom Herman’s apparent wonderboy Stan Drayton to work his magic to get something fixed. Whether that’s coaching the runners up better or giving larger snap percentages to Toneil Carter and Daniel Young, something needs to be done.
