Daily Short #82, October 17th, 2017: Deep Dig - Updated Defensive Rankings (Week 5)
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TIER 1
1. LB Malik Jefferson - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 2)
SEASON: 15.63% market share of defensive productivity; 5.7 snaps per production caused* (3rd) *among 17 players with at least 60 defensive snaps on the season
2. S Deshon Elliott - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 1)
SEASON: 14.42% market share of defensive productivity; 6.23 snaps per production caused (4th)
3. CB Holton Hill - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 13.53% market share of defensive productivity; 6.55 snaps per production caused (5th)
Malik Jefferson retakes his perch atop the rankings that he should be able to hold onto through the rest of the football season if things continue forward as expected. He generates his productivity in the most reliable and sustainable fashion with less variance from game-to-game than the DBs whose rankings are buoyed by unpredictable multi-interception outings and pick-sixes.
One of my big questions from the Gameday column last week was whether or not Malik Jefferson would shrink again on the biggest stage (let's face it, the OU game has unfortunately been the biggest annual stage Jefferson has played on in his career at Texas given recent lack of postseason activity). Last year, the Sooners offensive line and Samaje Perine had Jefferson, at times, in the football equivalent of the fetal position. And while the excellent OU RB Trey Sermon bit up the Longhorns defense at times in the 2017 iteration of the rivalry (and what a future stud Sermon looks like), it was not due to Jefferson still appearing to despise contact or play with hesitation.
In the 2016 game, the Deep Dig credited Malik Jefferson with 4.5 total points for tackles (solo tackles = 1 point; assists = .5 points) and one missed tackle. Those numbers alone represent an absolute disappearing act. In the 2017 game, his numbers were as follows: 4 solo tackles, 5 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB pressure, 1 TFL, 3 run-stuffs and 2 missed tackles.
Jefferson answered any questions about the level he's been playing at this season. What a difference the sophomore-to-junior year leap makes -- and what a difference a changing in schemes has made as well. Jefferson is not the prospect that Connor Williams is on the whole, but he's every bit as gone after the final whistle blows in what fans certainly hope will be a postseason bowl game this year.
TIER 2
4. NT Poona Ford - 49 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.3% market share of defensive productivity; 8.12 snaps per production caused (6th)
Here's Poona, still sitting in a tier all his own in the production department, even despite the fact that he plays a very thankless role in this defense. The whole defensive line does, after all. I wish there was a way to give more credit for the DL's ability to keep linemen off of the linebackers, allowing those guys to spill, scrape and come downhill cleanly and free of obstruction.
As it is, Ford's score is sustainably anchored by his ability to stuff his run-fits and force opposing runners to divert course from their original plans which, in turn, gives the linebackers and even safeties on run-stunts time to adjust and attack in opportune situations to create TFLs. Texas had a bear of a time on the defensive side of the football in fitting up gaps versus what appeared to be a counter-scheme they hadn't prepared extensively for, but Ford was the rock in the middle of the line that held up even through the initial onslaught as the rest of the unit worked out how to attack it on the sidelines through the first 3-4 series.
TIER 3
5. LB Anthony Wheeler - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 5.86% market share of defensive productivity; 14.58 snaps per production caused (10th)
6. S Brandon Jones - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 5.1% market share of defensive productivity; 17.48 snaps per production caused (12th)
7. DE Malcolm Roach - 35 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 4.88% market share of defensive productivity; 10.25 snaps per production caused (8th)
8. NCB PJ Locke - 66 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 4.34% market share of defensive productivity; 18.95 snaps per production caused (14th)
9. DE Charles Omenihu - 30 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 4.27% market share of defensive productivity; 17.2 snaps per production caused (11th)
10. LB Gary Johnson - 3 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 3.54% market share of defensive productivity; 4.41 snaps per production caused (1st)
11. DB John Bonney - 6 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.40% market share of defensive productivity; 4.74 snaps per production caused (2nd)
What's most interesting about this tier is who's in it and who is not. There are backups on this team who are providing more quantifiable production than starters. It's amazing that Gary Johnson plays an absolutely puny role for this unit (66 snaps on the season compared to 306 for a starter in Naashon Hughes) and still finds himself in this tier.
Kris Boyd has been bounced out of the Top 11 due to an abomination of a game versus the Sooners. And he might have actually done more messing up than he was even credited for. At least once (on his side of the field, but in multiple other instances all over it) OU receivers and TEs were running so wildly and ridiculously free on the back end that it was impossible to even determine who had coverage responsibility. Things had broken down so badly, you couldn't even work things backwards through various scenarios to even hazard a legitimate guess without access to the play call from the sidelines.
Even with this said, there were notable instances where Boyd was certifiably awful versus OU. It was finally a game where an opposing staff chose to avoid Holton Hill (who was thrown at only once all game, coming not as a primary read, but rather to a WR who broke free on a scramble drill) and go after Boyd. Boyd was targeted 5 times that the Deep Dig could reasonably assign in the contest allowing 2 completions and two separate burns -- one of them for a long TD. As if the 80% completion percentage and 40% burn rate when targeting Boyd were not enough, he had a 2017 single-game record of 4 missed tackles.
We look up at tier 3 and see a backup in John Bonney who's played only 66 snaps this season in the specialty dime or "Cowboy" package who's been more productive than Boyd on the season. Bonney has been targeted in coverage on 7 snaps, and on three of those, he has allowed completions. On the other 4 he has recorded 2 pass-breakups, 1 pass blow-up and one INT. Boyd has been targeted 32 times allowing 12 completions and 5 coverage burns (!) to go with 5 PBUs, one INT and one blowup of his own.
It's reasonable to think that Bonney has been put in good situations due to the fact that's he's a specialty piece in a dime package that faces predictable play-calling outcomes from the offense on situations like 3rd and long. That is understood. What also needs to be understood, though, is that Boyd is struggling badly at this time and Bonney is a player that both this staff and the last were on record at some point as saying he'd be a suitable option anywhere in the secondary, be it safety, nickel or outside corner. Charlie Strong actually ended his career at Texas getting pretty serviceable play from Bonney at outside corner.
With Davante Davis really looking no better than Boyd during his limited duty through the 2017 season, it may be time to give Bonney a look as the starter opposite Holton Hill. What do you really have to lose? Let Boyd play the specialty role in the Cowboy package until he starts to show signs of improvement in practice or until Bonney shows he's as ineffective as Boyd has been to start 2017.
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
12. CB Kris Boyd - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 3.02% market share of defensive productivity; 25.63 snaps per production caused (15th)
13. Chris Nelson - 41 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 14)
SEASON: 2.69% market share of defensive productivity; 17.82 snaps per production caused (13th)
14. LB Naashon Hughes - 58 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 13)
SEASON: 2.56% market share of defensive productivity; 29.14 snaps per production caused (16th)
15. DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 9 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 1.83% market share of defensive productivity; 9.33 snaps per production caused (7th)
16. LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 5 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 1.59% market share of defensive productivity; 10.31 snaps per production caused (9th)
17. NT Gerald Wilbon - 18 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: .98% market share of defensive productivity
18. DE Taquon Graham - 17 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 22)
SEASON: .73% market share of defensive productivity
19. S Jason Hall - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: .72% market share of defensive productivity
20. LB Edwin Freeman - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: .49% market share of defensive productivity
21. CB Josh Thompson - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: .39% market share of defensive productivity
T22. CB Davante Davis - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: .37% market share of defensive productivity; 46.6 snaps per production caused (17th)
T22. DE Jamari Chisolm - 8 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 23)
SEASON: .37% market share of defensive productivity
No production (2017 season)
T24. DB Antwuan Davis - 0 snaps vs. OU
T24. DB Chris Brown - 0 snaps vs. OU
T24. D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. OU
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
TIER 1
1. LB Malik Jefferson - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 2)
SEASON: 15.63% market share of defensive productivity; 5.7 snaps per production caused* (3rd) *among 17 players with at least 60 defensive snaps on the season
2. S Deshon Elliott - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 1)
SEASON: 14.42% market share of defensive productivity; 6.23 snaps per production caused (4th)
3. CB Holton Hill - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 13.53% market share of defensive productivity; 6.55 snaps per production caused (5th)
Malik Jefferson retakes his perch atop the rankings that he should be able to hold onto through the rest of the football season if things continue forward as expected. He generates his productivity in the most reliable and sustainable fashion with less variance from game-to-game than the DBs whose rankings are buoyed by unpredictable multi-interception outings and pick-sixes.
One of my big questions from the Gameday column last week was whether or not Malik Jefferson would shrink again on the biggest stage (let's face it, the OU game has unfortunately been the biggest annual stage Jefferson has played on in his career at Texas given recent lack of postseason activity). Last year, the Sooners offensive line and Samaje Perine had Jefferson, at times, in the football equivalent of the fetal position. And while the excellent OU RB Trey Sermon bit up the Longhorns defense at times in the 2017 iteration of the rivalry (and what a future stud Sermon looks like), it was not due to Jefferson still appearing to despise contact or play with hesitation.
In the 2016 game, the Deep Dig credited Malik Jefferson with 4.5 total points for tackles (solo tackles = 1 point; assists = .5 points) and one missed tackle. Those numbers alone represent an absolute disappearing act. In the 2017 game, his numbers were as follows: 4 solo tackles, 5 assisted tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB pressure, 1 TFL, 3 run-stuffs and 2 missed tackles.
Jefferson answered any questions about the level he's been playing at this season. What a difference the sophomore-to-junior year leap makes -- and what a difference a changing in schemes has made as well. Jefferson is not the prospect that Connor Williams is on the whole, but he's every bit as gone after the final whistle blows in what fans certainly hope will be a postseason bowl game this year.
TIER 2
4. NT Poona Ford - 49 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.3% market share of defensive productivity; 8.12 snaps per production caused (6th)
Here's Poona, still sitting in a tier all his own in the production department, even despite the fact that he plays a very thankless role in this defense. The whole defensive line does, after all. I wish there was a way to give more credit for the DL's ability to keep linemen off of the linebackers, allowing those guys to spill, scrape and come downhill cleanly and free of obstruction.
As it is, Ford's score is sustainably anchored by his ability to stuff his run-fits and force opposing runners to divert course from their original plans which, in turn, gives the linebackers and even safeties on run-stunts time to adjust and attack in opportune situations to create TFLs. Texas had a bear of a time on the defensive side of the football in fitting up gaps versus what appeared to be a counter-scheme they hadn't prepared extensively for, but Ford was the rock in the middle of the line that held up even through the initial onslaught as the rest of the unit worked out how to attack it on the sidelines through the first 3-4 series.
TIER 3
5. LB Anthony Wheeler - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 5.86% market share of defensive productivity; 14.58 snaps per production caused (10th)
6. S Brandon Jones - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 5.1% market share of defensive productivity; 17.48 snaps per production caused (12th)
7. DE Malcolm Roach - 35 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 4.88% market share of defensive productivity; 10.25 snaps per production caused (8th)
8. NCB PJ Locke - 66 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 4.34% market share of defensive productivity; 18.95 snaps per production caused (14th)
9. DE Charles Omenihu - 30 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 4.27% market share of defensive productivity; 17.2 snaps per production caused (11th)
10. LB Gary Johnson - 3 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 3.54% market share of defensive productivity; 4.41 snaps per production caused (1st)
11. DB John Bonney - 6 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.40% market share of defensive productivity; 4.74 snaps per production caused (2nd)
What's most interesting about this tier is who's in it and who is not. There are backups on this team who are providing more quantifiable production than starters. It's amazing that Gary Johnson plays an absolutely puny role for this unit (66 snaps on the season compared to 306 for a starter in Naashon Hughes) and still finds himself in this tier.
Kris Boyd has been bounced out of the Top 11 due to an abomination of a game versus the Sooners. And he might have actually done more messing up than he was even credited for. At least once (on his side of the field, but in multiple other instances all over it) OU receivers and TEs were running so wildly and ridiculously free on the back end that it was impossible to even determine who had coverage responsibility. Things had broken down so badly, you couldn't even work things backwards through various scenarios to even hazard a legitimate guess without access to the play call from the sidelines.
Even with this said, there were notable instances where Boyd was certifiably awful versus OU. It was finally a game where an opposing staff chose to avoid Holton Hill (who was thrown at only once all game, coming not as a primary read, but rather to a WR who broke free on a scramble drill) and go after Boyd. Boyd was targeted 5 times that the Deep Dig could reasonably assign in the contest allowing 2 completions and two separate burns -- one of them for a long TD. As if the 80% completion percentage and 40% burn rate when targeting Boyd were not enough, he had a 2017 single-game record of 4 missed tackles.
We look up at tier 3 and see a backup in John Bonney who's played only 66 snaps this season in the specialty dime or "Cowboy" package who's been more productive than Boyd on the season. Bonney has been targeted in coverage on 7 snaps, and on three of those, he has allowed completions. On the other 4 he has recorded 2 pass-breakups, 1 pass blow-up and one INT. Boyd has been targeted 32 times allowing 12 completions and 5 coverage burns (!) to go with 5 PBUs, one INT and one blowup of his own.
It's reasonable to think that Bonney has been put in good situations due to the fact that's he's a specialty piece in a dime package that faces predictable play-calling outcomes from the offense on situations like 3rd and long. That is understood. What also needs to be understood, though, is that Boyd is struggling badly at this time and Bonney is a player that both this staff and the last were on record at some point as saying he'd be a suitable option anywhere in the secondary, be it safety, nickel or outside corner. Charlie Strong actually ended his career at Texas getting pretty serviceable play from Bonney at outside corner.
With Davante Davis really looking no better than Boyd during his limited duty through the 2017 season, it may be time to give Bonney a look as the starter opposite Holton Hill. What do you really have to lose? Let Boyd play the specialty role in the Cowboy package until he starts to show signs of improvement in practice or until Bonney shows he's as ineffective as Boyd has been to start 2017.
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
12. CB Kris Boyd - 69 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 3.02% market share of defensive productivity; 25.63 snaps per production caused (15th)
13. Chris Nelson - 41 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 14)
SEASON: 2.69% market share of defensive productivity; 17.82 snaps per production caused (13th)
14. LB Naashon Hughes - 58 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 13)
SEASON: 2.56% market share of defensive productivity; 29.14 snaps per production caused (16th)
15. DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 9 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 1.83% market share of defensive productivity; 9.33 snaps per production caused (7th)
16. LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 5 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 1.59% market share of defensive productivity; 10.31 snaps per production caused (9th)
17. NT Gerald Wilbon - 18 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: .98% market share of defensive productivity
18. DE Taquon Graham - 17 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 22)
SEASON: .73% market share of defensive productivity
19. S Jason Hall - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: .72% market share of defensive productivity
20. LB Edwin Freeman - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: .49% market share of defensive productivity
21. CB Josh Thompson - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: .39% market share of defensive productivity
T22. CB Davante Davis - 0 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: .37% market share of defensive productivity; 46.6 snaps per production caused (17th)
T22. DE Jamari Chisolm - 8 snaps vs. OU (Previous Rank: 23)
SEASON: .37% market share of defensive productivity
No production (2017 season)
T24. DB Antwuan Davis - 0 snaps vs. OU
T24. DB Chris Brown - 0 snaps vs. OU
T24. D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. OU
