Yes, The Dude abides. Special thanks to WYLD GALLERY for sponsoring the column throughout football season and into February. I had the pleasure of meeting Ray and his lovely wife, seeing the gallery, and I can’t recommend it enough. The art is incredible, but the stories accompanying each piece were just as interesting.
Interested in sponsoring? Dustin@orangebloods.com
Alright, the writing…
1) Way-too-early look at UT’s 2020 schedule…
It’s never too early to look ahead to the 2020 football schedule, right? Since metrics like FPI and S&P+ have been published ahead of spring football, let’s take a way-too-early look at UT’s football schedule for the upcoming season:
South Florida
S&P+: 83rd
FPI: 86th
The bad news for Texas is Charlie Strong is no longer in charge of the South Florida football program. The good news for Texas is South Florida should be down in 2020, and a big underdog on the road.
at LSU
S&P+: 6th
FPI: 12th
Hold on. I think another LSU player just declared for the NFL Draft. Kidding. Kind of. Regardless of who lines up on offense or defense for LSU and who calls the plays, playing on the road at Death Valley won’t be easy. It’ll be electric, and it won’t be friendly for the visitors. But it’s impossible to think of this game right now and not think of all the coaching and playmaking the Tigers lost from last year’s championship team.
UTEP
S&P+: 130th
FPI: 129th
There isn’t an easier division-one opponent available to schedule besides the bye week. Hey, speaking of…
BYE
at Kansas State
S&P+: 54th
FPI: 50th
Consistently competitive throughout last season, the Wildcats under second-year head coach Chris Klieman should present a tough challenge on the road with Skylar Thompson at quarterback for his senior season.
vs. Oklahoma (neutral)
S&P+: 8th
FPI: 3rd
Until proven otherwise, Oklahoma deserves the benefit of the doubt under Lincoln Riley.
West Virginia
S&P+: 64th
FPI: 48th
In a difficult situation last year, I think Neal Brown showed he can eventually get West Virginia back into the top 25 occasionally. However, the Mountaineers are still probably a year away.
at Texas Tech
S&P+: 59th
FPI: 46th
The Red Raiders finished 4-8 last season, and if new head coach Matt Wells made a dramatic impact, it was difficult to find.
Baylor
S&P+: 33rd
FPI: 44th
Matt Rhule is gone, and Baylor will have to replace a lot from last year’s team.
at Kansas
S&P+: 113th
FPI: 104th
The Jayhawks will probably be a little more competitive in 2020, but not much more.
TCU
S&P+: 36th
FPI: 32nd
Following back-to-back top 10 finishes in 2014 and 2015, Gary Patterson is 29-23 overall and 18-18 in the Big 12.
Iowa State
S&P+: 30th
FPI: 31st
We’ll probably hear all offseason again about Iowa State potentially winning the Big 12, but the Cyclones have just one top 35 S&P+ finish and lost more games than they should have last season.
at Oklahoma State
S&P+: 21st
FPI: 17th
There could be a lot on the line for both these teams to end the regular season, and Spencer Sanders could be one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Right now, it looks like Texas should be favored in every game besides at LSU, Oklahoma, and maybe at Oklahoma State.
2) In case you didn’t know about Chris Del Conte and Tom Herman…
Chris Del Conte is all-in on Tom Herman. Some of you are muttering, “Thanks, Captain Assh… Obvious,” because you long ago connected the dots. When the UT Board of Regents met to approve the salaries of new assistant coaches, my immediate thought, especially after keeping up with all of Anwar’s great reporting and columns, was Del Conte clearly being totally in on Herman; the likelihood of Herman’s seat being warm next season is, barring a disaster of all disasters, very close to zero.
Del Conte has so often spoke about surrounding his head coaches with everything they need for them to succeed, and the importance of stability. Herman has everything he truly needs, but once the football stadium upgrades are complete, the Texas Football program will have finished quite the recent transformation. And Herman now has his coaching staff after failing to nail that process the first time around.
So, if it’s not working in 2021, yeah, I think y’all can truly begin to wonder if Texas is going to get there under Herman. But it’s obvious the person who matters most is fully behind Herman, and fully believes he’s going to win.
3) I’m all-in on Bijan Robinson in 2020…
Speaking of being all-in on something, I made my declaration on a recent Ticket City Podcast I’m all-in on Bijan Robinson eventually becoming the main guy at running back in 2020. Running back is probably the easiest position for a talented freshman to make an immediate impact at. Heck, Roschon Johnson moved to that position just before the season began, and was at times UT’s best running back. No offense to Johnson, a player I think will soon, if he hasn’t already, emerge as a beloved leader around the program, but he’s not in the same talent tier Robinson is. Not many running backs hare. He’s truly a rarely elite talent.
Looking back at when Johnathan Gray, who totaled 852 yards from scrimmage his freshman season at Texas, graduated, the examples of five-star running backs making an immediate impact aren’t hard to find:
Duke Johnson, T.J. Yeldon, Trey Williams, Thomas Tyner, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Sony Michel, Leonard Fournette, Jalen Hurd, and Cam Akers.
And that list doesn’t include some of the borderline five-stars, like Derrick Henry and J.K. Dobbins. Plus, there have been some years when there are barely any five-star running backs including one recent cycle when there were none.
It normally takes something going very wrong – injury or academic issues – or a depth chart loaded with other five-star running backs - places like LSU, Alabama, and Georgia recently - to prevent a truly elite five-star running back from making an impact right away. Robinson is one of the most talented high school running backs I’ve ever seen, and is a tremendous person. If he isn’t the main man in the rotation by the end of the season, one of Keaontay Ingram or Johnson is going to make an all-conference list or something went wrong.
4) Texas Basketball…
A rollercoaster season like this one, because that’s evidently all Texas knows under Shaka Smart, can sometimes create some odd narratives in the burnt orange part of the internet. This season, Luke Yaklich has been questioned, and some don’t believe he’s made an impact. Heck, some think UT has regressed on defense. Let’s go to the numbers.
Current Big 12 defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions): 99.6
Current adjusted defensive efficiency for the 2019-2020 season: 92.2
The last time Texas had a better defensive efficiency in league play: 2010-11
The last time Texas had a better overall adjusted defensive efficiency: 2010-11
Before the 2010-11 season, when Texas finished No. 4 overall in adjusted defensive efficiency, you’d have to go back to 2005-06 when Texas bested both the overall and Big 12 numbers. Over the last 10 games, Texas ranks No. 17 nationally in defensive efficiency. While scoring is down across college baseball and has led to more good defenses, the Longhorns are statistically performing at the best level defensively they have since 2011.
The struggles in defensive rebounding and the number of fouls has undoubtedly bugged Yaklich endlessly, but he has clearly made an impact specifically in a couple of key areas: limiting three-pointers attempted and assists per field goal made. Texas ranks No. 5 and No. 28, respectively, in those two areas.
5) So, you’re saying there’s a chance…
Yes, I am. I’m also saying Shaka Smart has done an impressive job with his team when I thought it was left for dead in Ames, Iowa. How much did Monday night’s upset win change UT’s NCAA Tournament chances? Well, the victory provided the electric shock they needed to start beating again, but the Longhorns remain a longshot currently.
BartTorvik.com gives Texas a 11.1% chance of making the NCAA Tournamen, and the 10 most similar resumes, based on current ratings, didn’t make the Big Dance. Prior to the West Virginia game, Texas had around a 1.0% chance. For the Longhorns to dramatically increase their chances, they need to win at least two of the remaining Big 12 regular season games. While they’ve defied the odds and logic recently, winning at Texas Tech this weekend is very unlikely.
However, playing at Oklahoma is a winnable road game, and Texas, even with all its injuries, should be favored at home in the regular season finale against Oklahoma State. BartTorvik.com projects Texas to finish the regular season 18-13 (8-10), and based on projections for all other teams, that finish would put Texas No. 5 on the “first out” list with a 23.8% chance to make the tournament. Obviously, that projection doesn’t include the Big 12 Tournament, but does represent just one Texas win being able to move the needle some.
If the Longhorns and their limited roster could somehow win 19 regular season games, a single win the Big 12 Tournament would likely be enough to give them a good chance of making the NCAA Tournament.
Unlikely? Yes. But possible now after Monday’s win? Sure.
6) Texas Baseball…
Say what you will about UT’s schedule to this point. What you can’t say, outside of half of Sunday’s game against Boise State, is Texas has been gifted wins this season. The Longhorns, in some form or fashion, have earned each of their nine wins. That matters for a team that went from finding ways to win games last year to inventing ways to lose them over and over during a season spiraling around the gutter. And it matters for a team featuring so many freshmen or junior college newcomers in prominent roles.
Are the hitting concerns fair? Absolutely. I find myself wondering if Texas is going to hit enough. That said, there are a lot of ways to win and lose college baseball games, and the Longhorns look like they could lean on pitching and defense as strengths the entire season with athleticism and speed on the bases. And I think the hitting will gradually improve to support the consistently production in the top third of the lineup. This weekend will be a great early-season test for Texas, and give us some valuable information.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- The longer this MLB investigation with the Red Sox goes on, the more I wonder if they’re going to get hit harder than the team and media members have said they would because of the heat being turned up on Rob Manfred. But it won’t hurt more than the bizarre feeling of seeing Mookie Betts in a Dodgers uniform and the current Spring Training pitching staff. Thankfully, though, baseball is here in some form. And it’s glorious.
Speaking of injuries, the Yankees are fortunate they signed Gerrit Cole or else the Rays would become the new favorite to win the AL East after the news of Luis Severino needing Tommy John surgery. The phase “forearm soreness” is becoming the new red flag for possible Tommy John surgery.
--- A favorite statistic I’ve found through my hours of Fantasy Baseball research over the last month: Willie Calhoun hit 21 HRs in 337 PA in 2019, and finished with a .256 ISO and 15.7 K%. Only players with a better ISO and better K%: Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte.
--- Since the Rockets dealt Clint Capela in a multiteam deal to acquire Robert Covington and turn themselves into a smallball revolution, they’re 5-2 with one of the losses being an insane buzzer-beater by the Jazz and the second game of a back-to-back when Eric Gordon played just eight minutes and Russell Westbrook was rested.
I don’t know if this is going to work in the playoffs because that’s a different animal. But watching some teams, like the Celtics, try to force the ball inside out of their comfort zone and fail has been entertaining. What Houston can do defensively around the perimeter is switch everything. Ultimately, Houston’s season will come down to shot-making, but it is betting on more shooters and space on the floor helping. We’ll see. It’s certainly interesting.
8) Anything and everything…
--- I’m through six episodes of Narcos: Mexico Season 2 and I am enjoying it more then the first season, which was outstanding. The way multiple storylines, like the USA’s DEA, Colombian cartels, Mexican plazas, Mexican politics, are intertwined is excellent, and it’s heading towards blood. Lots of blood.
--- It took me far too long to discover and sample numerous Spindletap Brewery products, and I’m a gigantic fan. The clever and unique Houston-themed cans help too. I’m a sucker for cans.
---
--- Like clockwork, Willie always ends up in the morning wedged between the pillows my wife uses to sleep. He might start out beside me, or down at the bottom of the bed. But at some point, he’ll make his nightly trip to turn himself into a sleeping hot dog. And getting him out of that? He turns into dead weight and you have to drag him down the pillows while he makes some “let me go back to sleep” groans; he truly is like a little person, who hates mornings.
9) The best thing I read this week… is from The Players’ Tribune: Where Is My Mind?
(this has been posted on the board recently, but it’s a great read for those who haven’t seen it already)
