Pretty good article on what it will take for each of the contenders to win a national championship. Nothing really earth shattering, but it's fair.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27046211/how-top-cfb-contender-win-national-title
with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook,
Texas (+2000)
If ... Texas can figure out how to run the ball without getting Sam Ehlinger hit so much. In Texas' most impressive wins of 2018 -- 37-14 against USC, 48-45 against Oklahoma and 28-21 against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl -- Ehlinger was a battering ram, rushing more than 17 times per game, not including sacks. Basically every third down was "Hey, Sam, get to the sticks." In the other 11 games on the schedule, however, he rushed under eight times per game. Head coach Tom Herman knew he couldn't let his QB take that many hits over a potential 14-game schedule.
The problem: When Ehlinger wasn't running, Texas' run game was poor -- average efficiency with no big plays whatsoever. Can that change?
If ... big-play blue-chippers can actually make big plays. Texas gained 30-plus yards just 26 times, tied for 77th in FBS with offenses like Boston College's and Navy's, both of which played fewer games. Worse yet, the Horns didn't make a single 50-yard gain all year. You know what else would allow Ehlinger to avoid taking hits and wearing down? Easy points.
If ... a super-young secondary is ready to not only hold the fort, but improve. Continuity in the secondary correlates pretty strongly with year-to-year improvement and regression, and Texas has to replace three DB mainstays in nickel P.J. Locke III and corners Kris Boyd and Davonte Davis.
With last year's top three pass-rushers gone, as well, there's a lot of pressure on high-upside sophomores like safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster and corners Anthony Cook and Kobe Boyce to play like grizzled veterans. Can they?
If ... a Tom Herman team can play every game as an underdog.Herman is the ultimate big-game coach. In four years as a head coach, he is 10-6 straight-up as an underdog and 13-2-1 against the spread. As a one-possession favorite, he's 9-2 straight-up and 7-3-1 against the spread. As a healthy favorite, however? He's 21-5 straight-up (a worse win percentage than as a one-score favorite) and 8-17-1 against the spread.
Just last year, Texas beat Oklahoma and Georgia, lost to Maryland, and thought hard about losing to Kansas and Tulsa. Title teams don't play like title teams only three or four times a year, or only when their QB is the entire run game.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27046211/how-top-cfb-contender-win-national-title
with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook,
Texas (+2000)
If ... Texas can figure out how to run the ball without getting Sam Ehlinger hit so much. In Texas' most impressive wins of 2018 -- 37-14 against USC, 48-45 against Oklahoma and 28-21 against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl -- Ehlinger was a battering ram, rushing more than 17 times per game, not including sacks. Basically every third down was "Hey, Sam, get to the sticks." In the other 11 games on the schedule, however, he rushed under eight times per game. Head coach Tom Herman knew he couldn't let his QB take that many hits over a potential 14-game schedule.
The problem: When Ehlinger wasn't running, Texas' run game was poor -- average efficiency with no big plays whatsoever. Can that change?
If ... big-play blue-chippers can actually make big plays. Texas gained 30-plus yards just 26 times, tied for 77th in FBS with offenses like Boston College's and Navy's, both of which played fewer games. Worse yet, the Horns didn't make a single 50-yard gain all year. You know what else would allow Ehlinger to avoid taking hits and wearing down? Easy points.
If ... a super-young secondary is ready to not only hold the fort, but improve. Continuity in the secondary correlates pretty strongly with year-to-year improvement and regression, and Texas has to replace three DB mainstays in nickel P.J. Locke III and corners Kris Boyd and Davonte Davis.
With last year's top three pass-rushers gone, as well, there's a lot of pressure on high-upside sophomores like safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster and corners Anthony Cook and Kobe Boyce to play like grizzled veterans. Can they?
If ... a Tom Herman team can play every game as an underdog.Herman is the ultimate big-game coach. In four years as a head coach, he is 10-6 straight-up as an underdog and 13-2-1 against the spread. As a one-possession favorite, he's 9-2 straight-up and 7-3-1 against the spread. As a healthy favorite, however? He's 21-5 straight-up (a worse win percentage than as a one-score favorite) and 8-17-1 against the spread.
Just last year, Texas beat Oklahoma and Georgia, lost to Maryland, and thought hard about losing to Kansas and Tulsa. Title teams don't play like title teams only three or four times a year, or only when their QB is the entire run game.
