OB Notes:
Ladies and gentlemen of Orangebloods, the glass is half full.
I'm not here to sell you on a moral victory. To hell with that.
I'm not here to make you feel better about Texas losing a potentially season-defining game by letting it slip through its fingertips. To hell with that, too.
I'm here today to simply tell you how it is.
When this season started, there was one objective that stood above all others - find a quarterback. Period. After seven seasons of this program floundering at the only position in college football that really matters, the importance of answering this question emphatically, one way or another, couldn't be stressed enough.
You can't stress the importance of this matter enough because the program has remained in a holding pattern for nearly a decade, while the question remains an unsolved mystery.
Shane Buechele or Sam Ehlinger ... it didn't matter which one, but one of the two most definitely needed to emerge.
For the first 11 quarters of this season, the ship was still searching for a captain that wouldn't crash it under his helm, but in the 12th quarter of the season, the switch turned on for the true freshman from Westlake in exactly the way that a number of folks inside the program had been expecting since he arrived earlier in the year.
With 5:14 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, Ehlinger walked onto the field against USC with his team trailing by four points and the future of this program started to take off.
In the last 8+ quarters of action against USC, Kansas State and Oklahoma, here's what Ehlinger has compiled in terms of total offense: 59 of 105 for 803 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and a single interceptions, along with 223 yards rushing.
For those of you keeping score at home, Ehlinger has been rolling up more than 100 yards of total offense per quarter and in the last two games against the Wildcats and Sooners, he was the best and second-best player on the field, respectively.
I'll take it one step further. I'll go so far as to say that regardless of the mistakes that he's making, Ehlinger has produced the best 8+ quarters of continued action against quality teams that this program has seen since Colt McCoy was at his absolute best in October of 2008. With no running game help, a poor offensive line and up-and-down receiving play, the kid from Westlake that arrived exactly 20 years after the Longhorns passed over a kid named Drew Brees (because it was content with the added commitment of a guy named Major Applewhite) is starting to emerge as one of the Big 12's top impact players.
Ehlinger might not be ready for every moment he faces, but he's not afraid of any moment he's been in and this team is feeding off of his confidence.
Yes, this program has a multitude of sins that it commits every week all over the field, but the most important area of need and concern is being answered in an emphatically tremendous way.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room going into this week ...
I've been covering Texas football on a professional level for 23 years and I'm fully convinced that we're looking at the worst group of running backs and healthy offensive linemen I have ever seen in this program.
These dudes make Fozzy Whittaker and Chris Ogbonnaya look like Ricky Williams and Earl Campbell.
If you take out the San Jose State game, Sam Ehlinger has easily outgained Chris Warren and Kyle Porter, despite them having played in five times as many combined games.
The fact that both of these players lack game-breaking ability is one thing, but putting them behind a line that currently features one solid player makes this a perfect storm of horror shows colliding.
With half of the season already in the books, it's probably unlikely that these areas will improve significantly before the end of the season.
No. 3 – Understanding what a recruiting ranking means ...
It has turned into a life-long quest of mine to help everyone understand exactly what a recruiting ranking means, turning a pseudoscience into actual science, at least to the best degree that I can.
I'm unlikely to pull this off, if I'm being honest, but I'm going to continue to try ... in this column, in fact.
At its most simplistic level, here are the things you need to always remember.
a. Historical data shows that national top 75 players are on a night and day level distance apart from the rest of the pack when it comes to developing into difference-making players, the type that go on to be paid for their services after their college careers end.
b. Any prospect that isn't a national top 75-type player is much more likely to not end up as one of these types of players, with the likelihood of it happening decreasing wit every step down in the ranking levels.
It's as simple as these results from the most recently completed NFL Draft cycle, which produced these numbers (Percentage of players per recruiting tier drafted by NFL teams):
Five-star (6.1) prospects: a. 83.16-percent.
High-four star (6.0) prospects: 30.47-percent
Mid-four star (5.9) prospects: 15.79-percent
Low-four star (5.8) prospects: 16.03-percent
High-three star (5.7) prospects: 8.59-percent
Mid-three star (5.6) prospects: 6.57-percent
Low-three star (5.5) prospects: 4.37-percent
High-two star (5.4) prospects: 1.69-percent
Mid-two star (5.3) prospects: 1.35-percent
Low-two star (5.6) prospects: 1.29-percent
Imagine going to Las Vegas and volunteering to play casino games with the same possible payout as other games, but with much longer odds of winning. The goal is to get the best possible payoff with the most-likely chance at earning that return.
That's why recruiting matters. The better you recruit, the more likely you're landing a prospect who develops into an NFL player at twice, three times or four times the rates of other prospects ranked below them.
For a point of reference, let's take a look at the players on the current offensive depth chart at key positions that are struggling and the recruiting rankings/projected NFL upside they brought into the program:
Running backs
Chris Warren: 15.79-percent
Kyle Porter: 16.03-percent
Toneil Carter: 16.03-percent
Offensive linemen
Denzel Okafor - 16.03-percent
Derek Kerstetter - 8.59-percent
Tristan Nickelson - 1.35-percent
Patrick Vahe - 16.03-percent
Terrell Cuney - 6.57-percent
Zach Shackelford - 6.57-percent
The term five stars and four stars gets thrown around so much that it has created a misconception of what that kind of status means. There's not one player in the list of names above that arrived as a truly nationally-elite prospect, which means that none of them arrived with a historically projected type of NFL upside that was as high as 20-percent.
The goal in recruiting is to acquire as many of the highest upside players as possible so that the math works in your favor. If you've got a group of five national top-250 prospects, the national average says that you're probably going to get one NFL player from the group. The programs that win championships find a way to over-perform against the numbers, producing two or three NFL-level players from that same group of five.
What's hurting this program right now is that it not only isn't over-performing, but it is hasn't been hitting the national norms at these positions in a while.
Anwar Richardson wonders if he's supposed to believe that Texas is the unluckiest program in the country, but that's not really the discussion in place because there's nothing unlucky about kids with an 80-percent chance of being JAGs at best actually turning out to be JAGs. This is all about development and being able to create your own luck. Connor Williams is one of these kids that arrived with less than a 20-percent chance based on the numbers to develop into an NFL level player before he leaves college and if he's in the line-up, the Longhorns are essentially batting the national average in terms of expected development.
With this team not over-performing anywhere else on the line, taking his presence out of the line-up puts the Longhorns below the national norm at the moment, with all due respect to the fact that so many of these players are at the early stages of their individual developments. With a kid like Kerstetter, you're asking for a guy that arrived with a historical NFL development value under 10-percent to over-perform against a five-year snapshot within minutes of being on campus.
Ok, I'm going to move on. I hope this discussion made things clearer for at least one of you. One at a time, I'll continue my mission of education.
No. 4 - In case you're wondering ...
These are the following Texas players that arrived with a projected historical NFL development above 30 percent:
* Malik Jefferson (83.16-percent)
* Devin Duvernay (30.47-percent)
* Patrick Hudson (30.47-percent)
* Gary Johnson (30.47-percent)
The idea that this program is loaded with nationally elite talent that is floundering is untrue. This roster isn't anywhere near loaded with the type of talent that Mack Brown's best teams possessed, even if it does play in a conference where 90 percent of the teams would love to be working with UT's set of problems with regards to raw talent.
No. 5 – Going for it on fourth and eight ...
I get it. It's probably what I would have done.
The options in my mind in the moment broke down like this:
a. Attempt a field goal, knowing that even if you made it, you'd still need to force Oklahoma into a three-and-out and then get the ball back and potentially make a another field goal. Considering that making a field goal is a 50-50 proposition, you've got a 25-percent chance (at best) of using this scenario to win the game.
b. Go for it, knowing that you're probably looking at a 30-percent chance of success of converting, with the worst case situation being that you'd need to force an Oklahoma punt and score a touchdown in less than a minute with two timeouts.
c. Squib punt it with Ehlinger inside the 10-yard line and try to force Oklahoma into a three and out with a possible 50-yard drive task in front of you if you can force the three and out.
Honestly, people would have viewed punting from the 28-yard line as borderline crazy, but it's what I probably would have chosen to do, given the options. If I didn't have the guts to do it, I'm leaving the ball in the hands of my best player and not my inconsistent kicker.
No. 6 - Oklahoma State is everything ...
The season is on the line Saturday.
A win over Oklahoma State puts the Longhorns in a great spot to challenge for a spot in the Big 12 title game with five games to go.
A loss means the team dips below .500 with five games to go and qualifying for a bowl is probably a realistic goal.
The Texas staff has to do its best work of the season this week.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: UT has two OL starters next year who are NOT currently on campus?
(Sell) That's wishful, unrealistic thinking in my opinion. This is a young group and the hope has to be that with everyone returning, improvement will come from within.
BUY or SELL: Todd Orlando will FINALLY make the requisite adjustments AND PERSONNEL CHANGES in the Horn secondary to end this devastating repetition of coverage busts leading to killer passing TDs (as happened against Maryland, USC, Kansas St and OU)?
(Sell) The staff doesn't fully trust Davante Davis, at least not as much as Kris Boyd, who it only kind of trusts at this point. I think this staff is going to keep playing the guys it views as the best players and the coaches just have to coach them up to be better players.
BUY or SELL: Despite a 3-3 record, Tom Herman has done a very good job given the injuries sustained and strength of schedule being accounted for as well?
(Sell) He's done a fine job, not very fine. Nothing about 3-3 is very fine.
BUY or SELL: Someone other than Rowland kicks a FG this year?
(Sell) If Tom Herman felt like he had another option, he'd use that option. He's telling you everything you need to know by his actions.
BUY or SELL: My name is Collin Johnson and you cannot stop me coming over the middle from the slot receiver position?
(Sell) Tom Herman believes Johnson is a limited player in his development right now, limited to only a couple of routes from the outside.
BUY or SELL: Texas Tech fires Kliff Kingsbury after the season and he immediately becomes the new Texas offensive coordinator?
(Sell) Tech needs to keep Kliff and hope he eventually develops onto half the guy they want him to be. What's the other option?
BUY or SELL: We make a bowl game, call it now.
(Buy) I'm seeing a 7-5 mark.
BUY or SELL: Texas wins if Sam Ehlinger hits Duvernay in stride for a TD instead of leading him out of bounds?
(Sell) Man, you guys love to nitpick a freshman quarterback with the nit-pickiest things.
BUY or SELL: Texas recruiting turns to the trenches and completes this class with nothing but linemen (other than Cook)?
(Sell) Sorry, man.
No. 8 – If I had a vote that counts ...
1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Georgia
4. TCU
5. Wisconsin
6. Oklahoma
7. Ohio State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Miami
10. USC
When Texas decided to pay Tom Herman’s $2.5 million buyout at Houston, the last thing any Longhorn fan thought they would worry about is seeing an offense struggle this season.
After watching Shawn Watson’s offense struggle for two seasons, Jay Norvell's brief tenure as an offensive coordinator, and Sterlin Gilbert’s system, things were supposed to be better this year. To some degree, the offense is better because injuries to Shane Buechele forced Texas to play Sam Ehlinger, and the freshman has turned an audition into a starting role. He completed 19 of 39 passes for 278 yards and one touchdown, plus he rushed 22 times for 122 yards and one touchdown, during a 29-24 loss against Oklahoma. Barring an injury, we may never see Buechele as a starting quarterback at Texas again. It is clear Ehlinger has a solid grasp of the position, and it would take one hell of an offseason by incoming freshmen Cameron Rising or Casey Thompson to start at quarterback next season.
That being said, I am reminded off an old adage in sports “Players win games and coaches lose them.” Players deserve the credit and glory when their team wins, but coaches should be the guys who take all the bullets for their team. I remember getting into it with former Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford for not speaking after games, especially when his unit was struggling last year. I did not believe it was fair for his players to answer questions about a loss while he was sitting on a bus. Eventually, Bedford decided to speak after games until he was reassigned. Coaches should always be the guys willing to step in front of a bus for their players and take the blame when things are going wrong.
This is why if Herman and his offensive staff cannot turn things around, this team will be competitive, but struggle to win games for the rest of the year.
Moral victories are okay, I guess, but nobody on this staff was hired to make fans feel good about a loss.
They were hired to get the most out of their players and win games.
That includes backup offensive linemen, which I will get back to in a minute.
Texas currently sits at 3-3 and is 2-1 in the Big 12. I hate to use cliches, but the upcoming game against Oklahoma State is huge for Herman and his staff. Texas is losing by an average of six points a game this season, which shows some progress. However, beating Oklahoma State at home would show this program is ready to take the next step and compete for a Big 12 title. If not, this will be a team fighting to win enough games to become bowl eligible with road games at TCU and West Virginia ahead, and the moral victories may not matter after this season.
Texas must find a way to win close games during the second half of this season, and it starts with better offensive play.
Is every running back on this team trash and cannot be coached up?
I refuse to believe that.
Is every offensive lineman not named Connor Williams below average?
That is a tough sell.
Does Texas not have one receiver who can dominate each week?
That is hard to accept.
If the narrative I am supposed to believe is the majority of running backs, receivers, or offensive linemen are not worth a damn, that would mean this is one of the few teams to compile elite signing classes where nearly every player was over-ranked each year. If I am supposed to believe nearly every offensive player on this year’s team is below average, those highly-ranked signing day classes from 2015 and 2016 were just for show, and Texas is one of the nation’s unluckiest programs in terms of recruiting.
However, it could mean this offensive staff must do a better job of developing the talent it has.
To the staff’s credit, these guys are playing their asses off. You do not see any quit in this team. These guys are playing hard. They give the staff and their teammates everything they have. Everybody is trying to contribute, even the guys who are struggling. The buy-in from this Texas team is evident week to week.
Obviously, the offensive line is banged up. There is no way you can replace Williams. He is a future NFL player, and this line has played inconsistently without his leadership. This offense struggled with Williams in the lineup against Maryland, but Ehlinger is running for his life right now. Prior to the season, Herman compared his offensive line to one he coached at Ohio State, and the unit only needed a right tackle. Right now, they are struggling.
Three Longhorns blocking Okoronkwo, letting another Sooner run free. Four rushers vs. six blockers, and Ehlinger is running for his life.
However, Texas has signed 21 offensive linemen since 2013. Nine of them were four-stars, 10 with three-stars, and two players had two-stars rankings. Conversely, Oklahoma State has signed 19 offensive linemen during the same period, and only one of their players was a four-star (Oklahoma City’s Tramonda Moore). OSU had 13 players who were three-stars, four with two-star rankings, while one athlete was unranked. In addition, Oklahoma State recently lost right guard Larry Williams for the season due to a leg injury, right tackle Zachary Crabtree missed time due to a toe injury, while center Brad Lundblade, who started in 31 consecutive games prior to this past weekend, was replaced in the lineup by Johnny Wilson, a former three-star from Midland.
Oklahoma State compiled 276 rushing yards and 471 passing during a 59-16 win against Baylor on Saturday.
By the way, if you have a banged up offensive line, having your quarterback throw quick passes on out-routes are better than asking him to always drop back. Help Ehlinger by having him get rid of the ball quicker instead of waiting for long plays to develop.
We know running backs coach Stan Drayton worked with Ezekiel Elliott and Carlos Hyde, but he has to get more out of Chris Warren III, Kyle Porter, Toneil Carter, and give Daniel Young a look. There has to be one player who can gain four or five yards consistently. Warren had six carries for 11 yards (0.7 average), Porter added three rushes for seven yards (2.3 average), while Carter had five carries for six yards (1.2 average).
If you take away the San Jose State game, Warren has rushed for 108 yards in five games (21.6 yards per game), while Porter throws in 89 yards (17.8 average). Yes, there are times when they do not have any room to move, but neither running back is making guys miss right now. A former college running back who has watched Texas this season told me Warren is not using his eyes enough, and closes them to prepare for contact instead of looking for ways to avoid defenders, while adding the running back needs to add a spin move.
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps has been a bright spot this season, while Collin Johnson has flashed at times. It is surprising that nobody in that unit looks like a 1,000-yard receiver midway through the season. Johnson is a guy many Longhorn observers believed had that potential, but in 16 career games, he has only two games with 100 or more receiving yards (Maryland and USC this season). Meanwhile, the receivers seemingly stop and watch Ehlinger when a play breaks down, and they need to work on scramble drills in practice.
Of course, Longhorn fans seem to be divided on Herman’s fourth-down decisions. Herman is not a fan of kicking field goals and “taking the points.” Obviously, it is not like he has a consistent kicker. However, one could argue the reason why Joshua Rowland struggles with consistency is because of his lack of involvement.
Texas converted 1-of-4 fourth-downs against Oklahoma on Saturday. When the Longhorns faced fourth-and-8 on Oklahoma’s 27-yard line in the fourth quarter, Herman decided to go for it, and Ehlinger’s pass to Lil’Jordan Humphrey was incomplete. Texas has converted only 5-of-14 fourth-downs (37.7 percent). Last year, Houston converted 19-of-30 fourth-downs (63 percent).
There are talented players on this offense.
It is up to Herman and his staff to get the most out of their talent.
That is what they were hired to do.
2. I spoke with several people associated with the Texas program on Saturday night and was told many players were devastated after losing against Oklahoma. It was an emotional time for players who believed they could have done more to prevent the loss. Herman always says he does not want an opposing team to beat them twice, and his challenge will be getting his players refocused and ready for Oklahoma State.
3. Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield on Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger’s performance: “Tough kid. You could tell by the way he carried himself. He bounces back after getting hit. Just how the Austin boys do it, I guess. So he's going to have a heck of a career. It's obvious. I had to throw that in there (laughter).” Yeah, that will not help Texas fans like him, but nice of him to say.
4. I get the feeling Herman would reconsider the binder if he had a kicker who could make long and short kids. Unfortunately for Herman, Rowland has been so inconsistent, it probably makes sense to go for it on fourth-downs when Texas is in field goal range. Finding a consistent kicker needs to be a priority during the offseason.
5. Well, Armanti Foreman’s dad remains unhappy about his son’s lack of playing time, and it appears this fractured relationship is not healing anytime soon:
6. Seems like I need to hit Ctrl + C every week when it comes to the topic of punt returners. Once again, Longhorn punt returners must stop running backwards and losing yards. Guys are trying to make plays, but losing yards every week on that unit is something that needs to end.
7. At least Charles Omenihu is taking his missed opportunity at a sack seriously.
