NOTE: This thread is from 2019. We're 6-5 since then and have looked like garbage in 8 of those 11 games. No way am I making a thread like that in 2020! š
I know everyone's ticked about the way the OU game played out. I'm usually a ray of sunshine, even in the face of losses. But even I was pretty angry about the poor offensive game plan, in-game adjustments on both sides of the ball, TACKLING, and kick return disaster.
That said, building a Championship winning program is a marathon, not a sprint. Those of you who've been around a while probably remember my "The Analysis is In" breakdown of Charlie Strong through his first 29 games. In that research, I pulled the record of every coach hired by every National Championship winning P5 program since the end of the leather helmet era. Through 29 games, Strong was the 4th losing-est coach in modern football history at one of those programs.
So, I went back and took a look at that research. Here's how Herman stacks up through his first 33 games against the first 33 games of other coaches who won a National Championship.
72.7% (24-9) -- Nick Saban (LSU)
72.7% (24-9) -- Pete Carroll
69.7% (23-10) -- Mack Brown
69.7% (23-10) -- Lou Holtz
66.7% (22-9-2) -- John Robinson
66.7% (22-10-1) -- Darrell Royal
66.7% (22-11) -- Bobby Bowden
66.7% (22-11) -- Howard Schnellenberger
63.6% (21-7-5) -- Bear Bryant
63.6% (21-12) -- Tom Herman
63.6% (21-12) -- Dabo Swiney
Also of interest is that Herman has faced more Top 12 teams (10) than any NC winning coach in the modern era in their first 33 games. So not only has Herman kept pace with many of the NC winning coaches that came before him, but he's done so playing a really stiff schedule. Herman also has the lowest margin of loss of any coach in his first 33 games (6.42 point differential in losses). Only twice in 33 games has Texas not been within 7 points in the 4th quarter (tied for the best mark).
None of this is to say Herman is going to win a Championship at Texas. Saturday dang sure didn't help anyone's confidence. But, given that every Championship winning coach in the modern era endured as many (or more) blow out losses in their first 33 games, it's obvious that even coaches that eventually win a Championship make errors and/or lay eggs that have to be corrected. So let's not count Herman out.
I know everyone's ticked about the way the OU game played out. I'm usually a ray of sunshine, even in the face of losses. But even I was pretty angry about the poor offensive game plan, in-game adjustments on both sides of the ball, TACKLING, and kick return disaster.
That said, building a Championship winning program is a marathon, not a sprint. Those of you who've been around a while probably remember my "The Analysis is In" breakdown of Charlie Strong through his first 29 games. In that research, I pulled the record of every coach hired by every National Championship winning P5 program since the end of the leather helmet era. Through 29 games, Strong was the 4th losing-est coach in modern football history at one of those programs.
So, I went back and took a look at that research. Here's how Herman stacks up through his first 33 games against the first 33 games of other coaches who won a National Championship.
72.7% (24-9) -- Nick Saban (LSU)
72.7% (24-9) -- Pete Carroll
69.7% (23-10) -- Mack Brown
69.7% (23-10) -- Lou Holtz
66.7% (22-9-2) -- John Robinson
66.7% (22-10-1) -- Darrell Royal
66.7% (22-11) -- Bobby Bowden
66.7% (22-11) -- Howard Schnellenberger
63.6% (21-7-5) -- Bear Bryant
63.6% (21-12) -- Tom Herman
63.6% (21-12) -- Dabo Swiney
Also of interest is that Herman has faced more Top 12 teams (10) than any NC winning coach in the modern era in their first 33 games. So not only has Herman kept pace with many of the NC winning coaches that came before him, but he's done so playing a really stiff schedule. Herman also has the lowest margin of loss of any coach in his first 33 games (6.42 point differential in losses). Only twice in 33 games has Texas not been within 7 points in the 4th quarter (tied for the best mark).
None of this is to say Herman is going to win a Championship at Texas. Saturday dang sure didn't help anyone's confidence. But, given that every Championship winning coach in the modern era endured as many (or more) blow out losses in their first 33 games, it's obvious that even coaches that eventually win a Championship make errors and/or lay eggs that have to be corrected. So let's not count Herman out.
