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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (8 words from PK that ring loud...)

Ketchum

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May 29, 2001
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"It always helps when you have better players."

Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski

Truer words have never been written and spoken.

For all of the constant conversation about the Xs and Os of the Texas defense this off-season, there's no question that having better Jimmys and Joes would go a long way in helping make the Texas defense much-improved from a season ago.

Full transparency - the comment from Kwiatkowski that is quoted above was taken slightly out of context in that it represented eight out of roughly 200 that he used to describe the issues with the pass rush last season. Inside the rest of the word salad, Kwiatkowski also mentioned that the pass rush needed the following:

a. Team needed to get better off the edge.
b. Team needed to get better inside.
c. Team needed to be better coordinated with regards to when they rush.
d. Players have to work better together.
e. Players have to get off the ball better.
f. Players have to be more relentless.
g. Players have to do a better job of defeating the hands of blockers.
h. Players have to collapse the pocket better.

Or you can just have better players.

Perhaps the thing that stands out to me the most about the 2022 Texas Longhorns as we get ready to begin a new season is that there will likely be more new faces on an offense that ranked 18th in scoring than on a defense that finished last season 99th in scoring defense.

There will likely be a new starting quarterback. There are multiple new receivers and tight ends. If most of you get your wish, there will be multiple new offensive linemen as well.

Meanwhile, most of the primary contributors on the defensive side of the ball are going to be players that were primary contributors on last season's defense. Check out the snap counts for the Texas players that are currently working with the first team defense (per @Alex Dunlap's Deep Dig Data):

DE Barryn Sorrell (92 snaps)
NT Keondre Coburn (368 snaps)
DT Moro Ojomo (403 snaps)
EDGE Ovie Oghuofo (486 snaps)
WLB Demarvion Overshown (493 snaps)
MLB Jaylan Ford (343 snaps)
NCB Jahdae Barron (216 snaps)
CB D'Shawn Jamison (631 snaps)
CB Ryan Watts (0 snaps)
S Anthony Cook (482 snaps)
S Jerrin Thompson (442 snaps)

The only true new player from that group is Watts, who transferred from Ohio State. Sorrell probably counts as a new player after averaging only 15 snaps per game in six games that he played in during his true freshman season, but technically he is not. Of course, Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey is new to the program and is expected to play quite a bit at linebacker, while there are also a number of true freshmen that are lining up with the reserves and will surely contribute during the season.

Still, 10 of the 11 starting players were with the program last season and nine of those 11 played 216+ snaps over the course of the season.

The good news for the Longhorns on defense is that they return nearly 4,000 snaps of experience from last season alone.

The bad news for the Longhorns on defense is that they return roughly 4,000 snaps of experience from last season alone.

If the Longhorns are going to have better players on that side of the ball this season, it's going to be because Kwiatkowski and the rest of the defensive coaches developed the hell out of what they had to work with, which didn't happen a year ago. Yes, better talent through recruiting is on the way, but the cavalry hasn't arrived just yet.

It's a chance for coaches like Kwiatkowski ($1.7 million per year), Bo Davis ($1 million per year), Jeff Choate ($575,000 per year), Terry Joseph ($800,000 per year) and Blake Gideon ($425,000 per year) to reinvent the way we view all of them. Every single coach on the defensive side of the ball for the Longhorns ranks either first or second in the Big 12 in salary at his position.

That's not me calling them out. That's me pointing out that the expectations for each of them is to perform at a level that is as good as any that exists in the Big 12.

This won't be a new group of players they are working with. A new scheme isn't being introduced. Almost everyone knows everyone and almost everyone has had a chance to work with everyone else for 20+ months, including this summer when assistants were allowed to work in the off-season with their players in ways that have never existed in the modern era of the sport.

Call me crazy, but all of that seems fairly significant. If the Texas defense improved significantly, we'll be able to point to quality coaches and development as the reasons for it occurring. It'll mean that the staff Sarkisian has employed to turn around the program will have earned its keep this season in exactly the way it’s been expected to earn its keep.

If the staff can't do it, very few of the excuses that existed a year ago will still be in play.

Except two.

Better players.

Better coaching.

No. 2 - Impressions from the first few days in camp ...

... It's been pretty quiet on the quarterback front. A year ago, it felt like the entire Longhorns universe lived and died by the day-to-day activity at the position, yet it doesn't feel like we're quite there with the position in camp.

"Here's what I think," one source with knowledge of the practices through the first week said. "There's not a lot that separates Quinn and Hudson right now. Quinn probably pushes the ball down the field a little more, but he also is prone to make a few more mistakes. I believe Sark is going to have to make the decision based on who he thinks can separate from the other with game time and experience. I'm just not sure that it's going to happen in the next two weeks. The eyes will see what the eyes want to see, but my eyes don't see any clear separation."

... The Texas skill talent has improved significantly.

"A year ago, we couldn't really withstand injuries, but I think we'll be able to withstand those issues this season better than last (year)," a source said. "Our second group of wide receivers isn't as good as our first group, but they can all be very productive if called on and you can see that right away in practice. I have to believe we'll see more rotation than we did last season."

... It's still too early to draw any conclusions with the true freshmen on the offensive line. This next week will be critical in that regard as the coaches begin to look to lock in on who they will be counting on in week one. Second-year player Hayden Conner has been a player that has received a steady stream of buzz.

... Regardless of who is starting in week one, every single back-up to the starter could end up being a true starter. In fact, one person I spoke with this weekend about the offensive line believes that at some point in the second or third quarter of the season opener, we'll see the coaches rotate in a line that is exclusively comprised of the incoming freshman class.

... Barryn Sorrell is a name that keeps popping up time and time again, but when I asked a source this week if it's because he's become very good or because the linemen he's going against aren't very good, the reply I received via text said, "Maybe both."

... One comment I heard this weekend that I found to be interesting was the impression that the likes of Malik Muhammad and Derek Williams would be competing for starting spots right now if they were in a position to already be on the team. It seems no one in the back end of the defense is playing so well that a super blue chip prospect couldn't come in and compete for their job.

... Tucker-Dorsey seems to have a knack for making at least one standout play in every practice.

... No one talked about the kicking game during the spring, but it's becoming more and more of a topic as the season approaches. "Cameron Dicker isn't walking through that door and it'd concerning," one source said.

No. 3 - A few recruiting notes to pass along...

... Heard my first true whisper of a possible 2023 recruiting flip to Texas over the weekend. Let me vet this one a little more over the coming weeks before throwing a name out there just yet, but a whisper does exist.

... All systems appear to be a go for the announcement of Orlando running back Cedric (CJ) Baxter. Amazingly, that recruitment for the last six weeks has seemingly been as iron-clad as any.


... It's pretty much the same with Baton Rouge, Louisiana cornerback Jordan Matthews. If Michigan or Tennessee are breaking down the wall that Texas has built in his recruitment, I haven't gotten wind if it.


... Looks like Lehi (Utah) Skyridge outside linebacker Tausili Akana will be visiting Texas for the Alabama game per a source I spoke with on Sunday. The source I spoke with said the best thing that Texas has going for it in his recruitment is that there's not truly a No. 2 school it is battling with. "We just have to sell us," the source said. "It might come down to whether he wants to live in Austin or stay closer to home. I haven't heard that he's in love with any place else."

Akana is an interesting player because he's been the rare player that hasn't gone through the national camp circuit that has remained in the top 75 nationally. I find that interesting because every single recruiting service has him listed at a different height and weight. One has him at 6-4, 225. Another has him at 6-3, 215 pounds. And even another has him at 6-3, 210 pounds. While some list him as an edge prospect, there's no question that his frame would put him in the tweener category at this stage of his development based on his physical build. From my vantage point, he looks like a true linebacker prospect and one that falls into the ideal frame standpoint when you look at the linebacker prospects that succeeded the most in the last 20 years.


... Communicated with a Bama connection this week about Venice, Florida defensive end Damon Wilson. It sounds like Bama believes it leads in that recruitment, but likely visits to Texas, UGA and Miami still loom in the coming months. The sense I have is that Bama is confident, but doesn't view this one as anything close to a foregone conclusion. As far as I can tell, not a single person in the recruiting industry has entered a Futurecast/crystal ball for his recruitment. Keep an eye on Georgia because he still has an official visit that he can take to Athens after taking an extended unofficial visit there in June.


No. 4 - Two more things with Wilson ...

The dude has enough athletic ability as an edge rusher to hit his head on the backboard in the gym. Kids, do not do this at home.



Second, if you want to drool over some recruiting film, do yourself a favor and watch this Youtube video. As you'll see in the video, this kid is incredibly well-coached.



No. 5 - With a major running back commitment looming ...

Yes, the Instant Analysis piece for the possible commitment of Baxter is written. It was actually written back on June 23, which is the date that I entered my Futurecast for him and when I first started to hear that he was leaning HEAVILY to the Longhorns.

With his potential commitment in mind, I thought it would be a perfect time to look at the historical performance rates of highly-rated running backs from the state of Texas. And Florida.

As I write this sentence, I have no idea what we'll find, but I'm looking forward to learning. Let's do this.

Texas Five-Stars

2004 - Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma)
2008 - Jermie Calhoun (Oklahoma)
2009 - Christine Michael (Texas A&M)
2010 - Lache Seastrunk (Oregon)
2011 - Malcolm Brown (Texas)
2011 - Brandon Williams (Oklahoma)
2012 - Trey Williams (Texas A&M)
2012 - Jonathan Gray (Texas)
2015 - Soso Jamabo (UCLA)

Breakdown

* Four of the nine players (44.4%) were drafted by NFL teams: Adrian Peterson (1st round), Christine Michael (2nd round), Lache Seastrunk (6th round) and Brandon Williams (third round). Two others (22.2%) went undrafted but played in the NFL: Malcolm Brown and Trey Williams.

It's not insignificant that nearly 70% of all five-star running backs from the state of Texas since 2002 have played in the NFL.

* Of the other three backs that didn't have NFL careers, two were impacted by injuries (Gray and Calhoun), while the other (Jamabo) just wasn't that good.

Florida Five-stars

2002 -Ciatrick Fason (Florida)
2006 - C.J. Spiller (Clemson)
2007 - Noel Devine (West Virginia)
2009 - Trent Richardson (Alabama)
2011 - Mile Bellamy (Clemson)
2011 - James Wilder Jr. (FSU)
2011 - Demetrius Hart (Alabama)
2012 - Randy "Duke" Johnson (Miami)
2013 - Greg Bryant (Notre Dame)
2014 - Sony Michel (Georgia)
2014 - Dalvin Cook (FSU)
2015 - Jacques Patrick (FSU)
2018 - James Cook - (Georgia)

* 7 of the 13 players (53.4%) were drafted by NFL teams: Fason (4th round), Spiller (1st round), Richardson (1st round), Johnson (third round), Michel (1st round), Cook (2nd round) and James Cook (2nd round). One other (22.2%) went undrafted but played in the NFL: Patrick.

* There are three five-stars still playing college football going into 2022. Former Miami signee Lorenzo Lingard is currently a back-up with Florida and has without question been a major bust. The same is true at this point for Trey Sanders, who has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in two seasons at Alabama. Demarkcus Bowman transferred from Clemson to Central Florida this off-season.

Now let's look at the Texas high four stars:

2005 - Jamaal Charles (Texas)
2006 - Michael Goodson (Texas A&M)
2006 - Emmanuel Moody (USC)
2006 - Vondrell McGee (Texas)
2007 - Lennon Creer (Tennessee)
2008 - Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M)
2008 - Desean Hales (Texas)
2013 - Keith Ford (Oklahoma)
2015 - Ronald Jones (USC)
2017 - J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)

Breakdown

* 5 of the 10 players (50.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Charles (3rd round), Goodson (4th round), Gray (6th round), Jones (2nd round) and Dobbins (2nd round). One other went undrafted but played in the NFL: Keith Ford, which means that 60-percent of the players in this tier played in the NFL.

* Of the other four backs that didn't have NFL careers, Creer was a 1,000 yard back at La. Tech, while Moody, McGee and Hales never proved to be consistent starters

* Jase McClellan (Alabama) and LJ Johnson (Texas A&M) are still active college players.

Let's look at the state of Florida's high four-stars...

2004 - Charlie Jones (Miami)
2004 - Bobby Washington (Miami)
2005 - Roy Upchurch (Alabama)
2007 - Armando Allen (Notre Dame)
2007 - Enrique Davis (Auburn)
2009 - Lamar Miller (Miami)
2009 - Jaamal Berry (Ohio State)
2011 - Mike Blakely (Florida)
2012 - Mario Pender (FSU)
2013 - Kelvin Turner (Florida)
2014 - Joseph Yearby (Miami)
2015 - Mark Walton (Miami)
2018 - TJ Pledger (Oklahoma)
2018 - Brian Snead (Ohio State)

* 2 of the 14 players (14.3%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (4th round) and Walton (4th round). One other went undrafted but played in the NFL: Allen

* LSU's Noah Cain is still an active college player after transferring from Penn State.

Texas Mid Four Star

2004 - Webster Patrick (Iowa State)
2005 - Russell Ball (Florida State)
2006 - Mon Williams (Florida)
2007 - Cody Johnson (Texas)
2007 - Bradley Stephens (Texas A&M)
2009 - Knile Davis (Arkansas)
2009 - Waymon James (Arkansas)
2011 - Herschel Sims (Oklahoma State)
2011 - Aaron Green (Nebraska)
2013 - Dontre Wilson (Ohio State)
2015 - Chris Warren (Texas)
2017 - Eno Benjamin (Arizona State)
2019 - Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M)

Breakdown

* 3 of the 13 players (23.1%) were drafted by NFL teams: Knile Davis (3rd round), Benjamin (7th round) and Spiller (4th round). No other players made the NFL as undrafted free agents.

Florida Mid Four Stars

2005 - Kalvin Bailey (Iowa)
2006 - Chevon Walker (Florida)
2006 - Javarris James (Miami)
2006 - Kylan Robinson (Miami)
2007 - Chris Rainey (Florida)
2008 - Jamie Harper (Clemson)
2009 - Chris Thompson (FSU)
2009 - Dontae Aycock (Auburn)
2009 - Jarvis Giles (South Carolina)
2009 - Lonnie Pryor (FSU)
2009 - Rodney Scott (Ole Miss)
2010 - Roy Finch (Oklahoma)
2013 - Alex Collins (Arkansas)
2013 - Tarean Folston (Notre Dame)
2014 - Tony James (Oregon)
2015 - Dexter Williams (Notre Dame)
2015 - T.J. Simmons (Temple)
2017 - Colin Wilson (Louisville)
2017 - Devan Barrett (Auburn)
2018 - Camron Davis (Miami)

Breakdown

* 5 of the 20 players (25.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Rainey (5th round), Harper (4th round), Thompson (5th round), Collins (5th round) and Williams (6th round). Two other players made the NFL as undrafted free agents: Javarris James and Tony Jones

No. 6 - Six big takeaways from all that data ...

a. 12 of the 19 highest-rated RBs in the history of the modern era of Rivals (2002-present) in the Lone Star State (63.2%) played in the NFL. That's a wildly good number. This includes all five-stars and high four stars. 47.4% were drafted. Again, a really massive number.

b. By comparison, only 33% of the top running back prospects from the state of Florida were drafted in the modern era of the Rivals rankings. The Texas numbers at the very top are basically twice as good as the state of Florida. I'm not sure I would have guessed that.

c. When the Florida five-stars hit, they really hit. Five of them over the years have been first- or second-round picks. I think you'd have to say that the state of Florida pretty much goes O-fer with high- and mid-four stars when it comes to producing a monster player.

d. In 20+ years, the three best backs in the history of the city of Orlando have been 2011 5-star Demetrius Hart, 2015 5-star Jacques Patrick and 2015 mid-four star Dexter Williams. Of that trio, Hart and rushed for nearly 1,300 yards last season at Colorado State after rushing for only 154 yards in two seasons at Alabama, but never really got a look from the NFL. Patrick is the only non-drafted player from Florida that went on to play in the NFL (12 career yards on two carries), which he did after being mostly a part-time player at Florida State. The lowest of the bunch is Williams, who was a solid player for Notre Dame and was a 6th round draft pick in 2019.

5. The drop from the top two tiers to the mid-four stars continues to be incredibly dramatic, no matter how you try to frame that tier of players. You're still talking about a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 hit rate at best.

6. For the "What about the good college players that weren't drafted or didn't play in the NFL?" crowd, I didn't really come across any players that were worth standing on the table for over the last 20 years from this group. Just in case anyone was wondering.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …

BUY-SELL.gif


B/S…..Junior Angilau starts at center by Big 12 play to allow another freshman to be inserted into the starting lineup. i.e, Campbell

(Sell) It's not out of the realm of possibility if Majors doesn't play better. The fact that he's undersized and not yet a plus player leaves his starting position in a vulnerable state, but I'm going to give him some benefit of the doubt ... for now.

1. Buy or Sell, We have a chance to pull off a major upset week 2 against Alabama?

2. Buy or sell, Arch shouldn't be the deciding factor of Sark’s status should we have a repeat of last year? Arch will still come to Austin should Sark get canned?

3. Buy or Sell, Gary Patterson will be DC by years end?

4. Buy or sell, Hudson Card will be much better this season should he beat out Quinn Ewers?

5. Buy or Sell (SEC Related) Have you ever been to Columbia Missouri?

(Sell/Buy/Sell/Sell/Buy)

It's really hard for me to see an upset here when you consider all of the dynamics in play, including a completely one-sided quarterback match-up at this stage of August. No single player should ever be the deciding factor in whether a coach should keep his job. This isn't Hickory and none of these dudes are Jimmy Chitwood. I'm thinking Kwiatkowski keeps his job for the entire season. It's hard for me to give Card benefit of the doubt without a little more evidence. Finally, not only have I been to Columbia, but I've sung karaoke there in front of Jackie Sherrill and DeLoss Dodds.

B/S- if the OLINE gives up less than 20 sacks, we are playing in the Big 12 Championship

(Sell) That tells me nothing about the defense and special teams.

B/S- NIL "bidding" makes all existing commitments "softer" than they have ever been before.

(Buy) Certainly among the highest-ranked players who own the most NIL value.

Quinn starts 10 + games.

(Sell) Isn't the smart money on one of the quarterbacks getting injured at some point? That feels somewhat likely ... the amount of games missed due to those injuries is a total wildcard.

If the Defense is in the top 50% in defense, we are in the Big XII championship game

(Sell) I'd buy top 40, I suppose. The issue with a top-50 defense is that it means it likely played like a top-70 defense in the games that matter the most.

We are more likely to have two 1,000 yard rushers than two 1,000 yard receivers.

(Sell) Give me the wide receivers. Even if he averages 5.9 yards per carry as he did last season, Roschon Johnson would need 170 carries to get to 1,000. He received 96 last year and that included two starts.

Will 9+ wins mean at least 1 big recruiting flip for Texas?
(Buy) Yes, I believe that.

Byron Murphy has a breakout year and makes all Big 12 first team.
(Sell) I'm not quite sure he's ready to be that player.

B/S - Texas beats OU on October 8.
(Buy) It better.

B/S, the QB “controversy” ends with Murphy starting the last four games of the season
(Sell) Don't take my selling as a sign that I don't love the boldness of the question/suggestion.

B/S. PK only gets one mulligan in the first six games... if he lays a second egg, Sark goes to the bullpen.
(Sell) Great question, though. I suppose it comes down to the optics of the second mulligan.

Texas D with over 45 sacks this years.

(Sell)
kevin-hart-wtf.gif


B/S: the team can average 2.0 or more sacks per game in conference play.

(Buy) That feels much more realistic.

B/S - You would trade Gullete, Baxter, and Matthews to get Anthony Hill

(Buy) Five-star linebackers don't grow on trees, but when they are found, they tend to be difference-makers more times than not. It all comes down to the combination of injury and small school status of Gullette. Without the injury to him, I'd probably sell the question, but given the circumstances, the math says that Hill has about a 60-percent chance of becoming the kind of linebacker that gets drafted on day one or day two of the NFL draft, while the historical data says that the chances for Gullette, Baxter and Matthews are in the 20-25% range for each.

No. 8 - Scattershooting ...

... True story ... I didn't watch a single play from the Jacksonville/Las Vegas pre-season game.

... This year's NFL Hall of Fame Class feels a lot more like Hall of Very Good group.

... Zeke Elliott is still going in third and fourth rounds in fantasy. If you've got the last pick in the fourth round, would you dare to go Zeke?

... I missed the Astros/Red Sox game this week that I was planning to take my family to. Consider me very disappointed.

... Color me shocked that the Phillies are 12 games over .500 without Bryce Harper. I did not see that coming.

... If the Phillies flame out in the National League, I want to see Dodgers and Padres in a 7-game series.

... Austin FC are going to finish second in the West in MLS because they aren't good enough at home. What a weird, true sentence.

... Erling Haaland is good ... duh.

... No, I haven't completely recovered from that poor Liverpool performance. It impacted my mood the entire weekend.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Eva Cassidy songs ...
1659917225818.png

I'll never forget the moment I was introduced to Eva Cassidy's voice.

I was on a date watching the movie Love Actually at the theater when the voice of an angel knocked me on the floor (for those that have seen the movie, it's during the scene when Laura Linney is about to shag Carl). As soon as 30 seconds of Songbird had played in the theater, I had to hear more of that voice.

As soon as I got home, I went online and my heart broke when I learned that Cassidy had died of melanoma in 1996.

From that moment on, I've been obsessed with Cassidy's music and it occurred to me in the last two weeks that she's my favorite vocalist of all time. I'm convinced that if anyone on earth ever had the voice of an angel, it was her.

For those that might be unfamiliar with her work, this might be the greatest gift I'll ever give you.

Let's get on with the list.

10. Ain't No Sunshine

Quite a bit of the world was introduced to Eva in this Nightline piece done on her, a piece that is regarded as one of the most popular that Nightline has ever produced.

9. People Get Ready

One of the great songs of all-time by The Impressions, Eva wraps herself around it in a way that makes it a completely different experience. I'm telling you, she has the voice of an angel.

8. Autumn Leaves

One of the more haunting songs that Eva ever recorded is this 40s standard originally written by Johnny Mercer.

7. True Colors

Eva phrases her words in song as well as anyone that ever lived and the proof is all over this all-time Cyndi Lauper track. Yes, it's a better version than the original because almost everything Eva ever touched was better than the original.

6. Imagine

Her take on this John Lennon classic will melt you.

5. Drown in My Own Tears

Her album with the great Chuck Brown called The Other Side is one of the best albums you've almost certainly never heard. Their cover of this old Ray Charles track is my favorite song on the album.

4. Time is a Healer

Eva turns it completely loose in this bluesy number in a way that gives you an idea of the type of music she could have made in the R&B/Blues world if she had ever been able to connect with the right producer/label.

3. Fields of Gold

Although Sting is very territorial of this song, he was moved to tears the first time Eva's version was played for him.

2. Songbird

I knew my wife Heather was the woman I was supposed to marry when we both agreed that this was going to be the song for the first dance at our wedding and it was.

1. Over the Rainbow

The definitive version of this song. Just amazing. I cry almost every time I listen to it.

No. 10 - And Finally ...

Was thinking the other day just how unlucky I was to miss Jerry Gray and the 1983 Texas defense. The first Texas game I ever watched in person was in 1984 when the Longhorns lost in Waco, which means that I did see Gray play in the flesh while he was a Longhorns player, but it means I missed him on the best team/defense that he ever played on.

I'd have loved to have seen this game at Auburn.
 
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... Zeke Elliott is still going in third and fourth rounds in fantasy. If you've got the last pick in the fourth round, would you dare to go Zeke?
Tony Pollard is the better pick if both are on the board.
 
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"It always helps when you have better players."

Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski

Truer words have never been written and spoken.

For all of the constant conversation about the Xs and Os of the Texas defense this off-season, there's no question that having better Jimmys and Joes would go a long way in helping make the Texas defense much-improved from a season ago.

Full transparency - the comment from Kwiatkowski that is quoted above was taken slightly out of context in that it represented eight out of roughly 200 that he used to describe the issues with the pass rush last season. Inside the rest of the word salad, Kwiatkowski also mentioned that the pass rush needed the following:

a. Team needed to get better off the edge.
b. Team needed to get better inside.
c. Team needed to be better coordinated with regards to when they rush.
d. Players have to work better together.
e. Players have to get off the ball better.
f. Players have to be more relentless.
g. Players have to do a better job of defeating the hands of blockers.
h. Players have to collapse the pocket better.

Or you can just have better players.

Perhaps the thing that stands out to me the most about the 2022 Texas Longhorns as we get ready to begin a new season is that there will likely be more new faces on an offense that ranked 18th in scoring than on a defense that finished last season 99th in scoring defense.

There will likely be a new starting quarterback. There are multiple new receivers and tight ends. If most of you get your wish, there will be multiple new offensive linemen as well.

Meanwhile, most of the primary contributors on the defensive side of the ball are going to be players that were primary contributors on last season's defense. Check out the snap counts for the Texas players that are currently working with the first team defense (per @Alex Dunlap's Deep Dig Data):

DE Barryn Sorrell (92 snaps)
NT Keondre Coburn (368 snaps)
DT Moro Ojomo (403 snaps)
EDGE Ovie Oghuofo (486 snaps)
WLB Demarvion Overshown (493 snaps)
MLB Jaylan Ford (343 snaps)
NCB Jahdae Barron (216 snaps)
CB D'Shawn Jamison (631 snaps)
CB Ryan Watts (0 snaps)
S Anthony Cook (482 snaps)
S Jerrin Thompson (442 snaps)

The only true new player from that group is Watts, who transferred from Ohio State. Sorrell probably counts as a new player after averaging only 15 snaps per game in six games that he played in during his true freshman season, but technically he is not. Of course, Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey is new to the program and is expected to play quite a bit at linebacker, while there are also a number of true freshmen that are lining up with the reserves and will surely contribute during the season.

Still, 10 of the 11 starting players were with the program last season and nine of those 11 played 216+ snaps over the course of the season.

The good news for the Longhorns on defense is that they return nearly 4,000 snaps of experience from last season alone.

The bad news for the Longhorns on defense is that they return roughly 4,000 snaps of experience from last season alone.

If the Longhorns are going to have better players on that side of the ball this season, it's going to be because Kwiatkowski and the rest of the defensive coaches developed the hell out of what they had to work with, which didn't happen a year ago. Yes, better talent through recruiting is on the way, but the cavalry hasn't arrived just yet.

It's a chance for coaches like Kwiatkowski ($1.7 million per year), Bo Davis ($1 million per year), Jeff Choate ($575,000 per year), Terry Joseph ($800,000 per year) and Blake Gideon ($425,000 per year) to reinvent the way we view all of them. Every single coach on the defensive side of the ball for the Longhorns ranks either first or second in the Big 12 in salary at his position.

That's not me calling them out. That's me pointing out that the expectations for each of them is to perform at a level that is as good as any that exists in the Big 12.

This won't be a new group of players they are working with. A new scheme isn't being introduced. Almost everyone knows everyone and almost everyone has had a chance to work with everyone else for 20+ months, including this summer when assistants were allowed to work in the off-season with their players in ways that have never existed in the modern era of the sport.

Call me crazy, but all of that seems fairly significant. If the Texas defense improved significantly, we'll be able to point to quality coaches and development as the reasons for it occurring. It'll mean that the staff Sarkisian has employed to turn around the program will have earned its keep this season in exactly the way it’s been expected to earn its keep.

If the staff can't do it, very few of the excuses that existed a year ago will still be in play.

Except two.

Better players.

Better coaching.

No. 2 - Impressions from the first few days in camp ...

... It's been pretty quiet on the quarterback front. A year ago, it felt like the entire Longhorns universe lived and died by the day-to-day activity at the position, yet it doesn't feel like we're quite there with the position in camp.

"Here's what I think," one source with knowledge of the practices through the first week said. "There's not a lot that separates Quinn and Hudson right now. Quinn probably pushes the ball down the field a little more, but he also is prone to make a few more mistakes. I believe Sark is going to have to make the decision based on who he thinks can separate from the other with game time and experience. I'm just not sure that it's going to happen in the next two weeks. The eyes will see what the eyes want to see, but my eyes don't see any clear separation."

... The Texas skill talent has improved significantly.

"A year ago, we couldn't really withstand injuries, but I think we'll be able to withstand those issues this season better than last (year)," a source said. "Our second group of wide receivers isn't as good as our first group, but they can all be very productive if called on and you can see that right away in practice. I have to believe we'll see more rotation than we did last season."

... It's still too early to draw any conclusions with the true freshmen on the offensive line. This next week will be critical in that regard as the coaches begin to look to lock in on who they will be counting on in week one. Second-year player Hayden Conner has been a player that has received a steady stream of buzz.

... Regardless of who is starting in week one, every single back-up to the starter could end up being a true starter. In fact, one person I spoke with this weekend about the offensive line believes that at some point in the second or third quarter of the season opener, we'll see the coaches rotate in a line that is exclusively comprised of the incoming freshman class.

... Barryn Sorrell is a name that keeps popping up time and time again, but when I asked a source this week if it's because he's become very good or because the linemen he's going against aren't very good, the reply I received via text said, "Maybe both."

... One comment I heard this weekend that I found to be interesting was the impression that the likes of Malik Muhammad and Derek Williams would be competing for starting spots right now if they were in a position to already be on the team. It seems no one in the back end of the defense is playing so well that a super blue chip prospect couldn't come in and compete for their job.

... Tucker-Dorsey seems to have a knack for making at least one standout play in every practice.

... No one talked about the kicking game during the spring, but it's becoming more and more of a topic as the season approaches. "Cameron Dicker isn't walking through that door and it'd concerning," one source said.

No. 3 - A few recruiting notes to pass along...

... Heard my first true whisper of a possible 2023 recruiting flip to Texas over the weekend. Let me vet this one a little more over the coming weeks before throwing a name out there just yet, but a whisper does exist.

... All systems appear to be a go for the announcement of Orlando running back Cedric (CJ) Baxter. Amazingly, that recruitment for the last six weeks has seemingly been as iron-clad as any.



... It's pretty much the same with Baton Rouge, Louisiana cornerback Jordan Matthews. If Michigan or Tennessee are breaking down the wall that Texas has built in his recruitment, I haven't gotten wind if it.



... Looks like Lehi (Utah) Skyridge outside linebacker Tausili Akana will be visiting Texas for the Alabama game per a source I spoke with on Sunday. The source I spoke with said the best thing that Texas has going for it in his recruitment is that there's not truly a No. 2 school it is battling with. "We just have to sell us," the source said. "It might come down to whether he wants to live in Austin or stay closer to home. I haven't heard that he's in love with any place else."

Akana is an interesting player because he's been the rare player that hasn't gone through the national camp circuit that has remained in the top 75 nationally. I find that interesting because every single recruiting service has him listed at a different height and weight. One has him at 6-4, 225. Another has him at 6-3, 215 pounds. And even another has him at 6-3, 210 pounds. While some list him as an edge prospect, there's no question that his frame would put him in the tweener category at this stage of his development based on his physical build. From my vantage point, he looks like a true linebacker prospect and one that falls into the ideal frame standpoint when you look at the linebacker prospects that succeeded the most in the last 20 years.



... Communicated with a Bama connection this week about Venice, Florida defensive end Damon Wilson. It sounds like Bama believes it leads in that recruitment, but likely visits to Texas, UGA and Miami still loom in the coming months. The sense I have is that Bama is confident, but doesn't view this one as anything close to a foregone conclusion. As far as I can tell, not a single person in the recruiting industry has entered a Futurecast/crystal ball for his recruitment. Keep an eye on Georgia because he still has an official visit that he can take to Athens after taking an extended unofficial visit there in June.



No. 4 - Two more things with Wilson ...

The dude has enough athletic ability as an edge rusher to hit his head on the backboard in the gym. Kids, do not do this at home.



Second, if you want to drool over some recruiting film, do yourself a favor and watch this Youtube video. As you'll see in the video, this kid is incredibly well-coached.



No. 5 - With a major running back commitment looming ...

Yes, the Instant Analysis piece for the possible commitment of Baxter is written. It was actually written back on June 23, which is the date that I entered my Futurecast for him and when I first started to hear that he was leaning HEAVILY to the Longhorns.

With his potential commitment in mind, I thought it would be a perfect time to look at the historical performance rates of highly-rated running backs from the state of Texas. And Florida.

As I write this sentence, I have no idea what we'll find, but I'm looking forward to learning. Let's do this.

Texas Five-Stars

2004 - Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma)
2008 - Jermie Calhoun (Oklahoma)
2009 - Christine Michael (Texas A&M)
2010 - Lache Seastrunk (Oregon)
2011 - Malcolm Brown (Texas)
2011 - Brandon Williams (Oklahoma)
2012 - Trey Williams (Texas A&M)
2012 - Jonathan Gray (Texas)
2015 - Soso Jamabo (UCLA)

Breakdown


* Four of the nine players (44.4%) were drafted by NFL teams: Adrian Peterson (1st round), Christine Michael (2nd round), Lache Seastrunk (6th round) and Brandon Williams (third round). Two others (22.2%) went undrafted but played in the NFL: Malcolm Brown and Trey Williams.

It's not insignificant that nearly 70% of all five-star running backs from the state of Texas since 2002 have played in the NFL.

* Of the other three backs that didn't have NFL careers, two were impacted by injuries (Gray and Calhoun), while the other (Jamabo) just wasn't that good.

Florida Five-stars

2002 -Ciatrick Fason (Florida)
2006 - C.J. Spiller (Clemson)
2007 - Noel Devine (West Virginia)
2009 - Trent Richardson (Alabama)
2011 - Mile Bellamy (Clemson)
2011 - James Wilder Jr. (FSU)
2011 - Demetrius Hart (Alabama)
2012 - Randy "Duke" Johnson (Miami)
2013 - Greg Bryant (Notre Dame)
2014 - Sony Michel (Georgia)
2014 - Dalvin Cook (FSU)
2015 - Jacques Patrick (FSU)
2018 - James Cook - (Georgia)

* 7 of the 13 players (53.4%) were drafted by NFL teams: Fason (4th round), Spiller (1st round), Richardson (1st round), Johnson (third round), Michel (1st round), Cook (2nd round) and James Cook (2nd round). One other (22.2%) went undrafted but played in the NFL: Patrick.

* There are three five-stars still playing college football going into 2022. Former Miami signee Lorenzo Lingard is currently a back-up with Florida and has without question been a major bust. The same is true at this point for Trey Sanders, who has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in two seasons at Alabama. Demarkcus Bowman transferred from Clemson to Central Florida this off-season.

Now let's look at the Texas high four stars:

2005 - Jamaal Charles (Texas)
2006 - Michael Goodson (Texas A&M)
2006 - Emmanuel Moody (USC)
2006 - Vondrell McGee (Texas)
2007 - Lennon Creer (Tennessee)
2008 - Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M)
2008 - Desean Hales (Texas)
2013 - Keith Ford (Oklahoma)
2015 - Ronald Jones (USC)
2017 - J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)

Breakdown


* 5 of the 10 players (50.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Charles (3rd round), Goodson (4th round), Gray (6th round), Jones (2nd round) and Dobbins (2nd round). One other went undrafted but played in the NFL: Keith Ford, which means that 60-percent of the players in this tier played in the NFL.

* Of the other four backs that didn't have NFL careers, Creer was a 1,000 yard back at La. Tech, while Moody, McGee and Hales never proved to be consistent starters

* Jase McClellan (Alabama) and LJ Johnson (Texas A&M) are still active college players.

Let's look at the state of Florida's high four-stars...

2004 - Charlie Jones (Miami)
2004 - Bobby Washington (Miami)
2005 - Roy Upchurch (Alabama)
2007 - Armando Allen (Notre Dame)
2007 - Enrique Davis (Auburn)
2009 - Lamar Miller (Miami)
2009 - Jaamal Berry (Ohio State)
2011 - Mike Blakely (Florida)
2012 - Mario Pender (FSU)
2013 - Kelvin Turner (Florida)
2014 - Joseph Yearby (Miami)
2015 - Mark Walton (Miami)
2018 - TJ Pledger (Oklahoma)
2018 - Brian Snead (Ohio State)

* 2 of the 14 players (50.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (4th round) and Walton (4th round). One other went undrafted but played in the NFL: Allen

* LSU's Noah Cain is still an active college player after transferring from Penn State.

Texas Mid Four Star

2004 - Webster Patrick (Iowa State)
2005 - Russell Ball (Florida State)
2006 - Mon Williams (Florida)
2007 - Cody Johnson (Texas)
2007 - Bradley Stephens (Texas A&M)
2009 - Knile Davis (Arkansas)
2009 - Waymon James (Arkansas)
2011 - Herschel Sims (Oklahoma State)
2011 - Aaron Green (Nebraska)
2013 - Dontre Wilson (Ohio State)
2015 - Chris Warren (Texas)
2017 - Eno Benjamin (Arizona State)
2019 - Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M)

Breakdown

* 3 of the 13 players (23.1%) were drafted by NFL teams: Knile Davis (3rd round), Benjamin (7th round) and Spiller (4th round). No other players made the NFL as undrafted free agents.

Florida Mid Four Stars

2005 - Kalvin Bailey (Iowa)
2006 - Chevon Walker (Florida)
2006 - Javarris James (Miami)
2006 - Kylan Robinson (Miami)
2007 - Chris Rainey (Florida)
2008 - Jamie Harper (Clemson)
2009 - Chris Thompson (FSU)
2009 - Dontae Aycock (Auburn)
2009 - Jarvis Giles (South Carolina)
2009 - Lonnie Pryor (FSU)
2009 - Rodney Scott (Ole Miss)
2010 - Roy Finch (Oklahoma)
2013 - Alex Collins (Arkansas)
2013 - Tarean Folston (Notre Dame)
2014 - Tony James (Oregon)
2015 - Dexter Williams (Notre Dame)
2015 - T.J. Simmons (Temple)
2017 - Colin Wilson (Louisville)
2017 - Devan Barrett (Auburn)
2018 - Camron Davis (Miami)

Breakdown

* 5 of the 20 players (25.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Rainey (5th round), Harper (4th round), Thompson (5th round), Collins (5th round) and Williams (6th round). Two other players made the NFL as undrafted free agents: Javarris James and Tony Jones

No. 6 - Six big takeaways from all that data ...

a. 12 of the 19 highest-rated RBs in the history of the modern era of Rivals (2002-present) in the Lone Star State (63.2%) played in the NFL. That's a wildly good number. This includes all five-stars and high four stars. 47.4% were drafted. Again, a really massive number.

b. By comparison, only 33% of the top running back prospects from the state of Florida were drafted in the modern era of the Rivals rankings. The Texas numbers at the very top are basically twice as good as the state of Florida. I'm not sure I would have guessed that.

c. When the Florida five-stars hit, they really hit. Five of them over the years have been first- or second-round picks. I think you'd have to say that the state of Florida pretty much goes O-fer with high- and mid-four stars when it comes to producing a monster player.

d. In 20+ years, the three best backs in the history of the city of Orlando have been 2011 5-star Demetrius Hart, 2015 5-star Jacques Patrick and 2015 mid-four star Dexter Williams. Of that trio, Hart and rushed for nearly 1,300 yards last season at Colorado State after rushing for only 154 yards in two seasons at Alabama, but never really got a look from the NFL. Patrick is the only non-drafted player from Florida that went on to play in the NFL (12 career yards on two carries), which he did after being mostly a part-time player at Florida State. The lowest of the bunch is Williams, who was a solid player for Notre Dame and was a 6th round draft pick in 2019.

5. The drop from the top two tiers to the mid-four stars continues to be incredibly dramatic, no matter how you try to frame that tier of players. You're still talking about a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 hit rate at best.

6. For the "What about the good college players that weren't drafted or didn't play in the NFL?" crowd, I didn't really come across any players that were worth standing on the table for over the last 20 years from this group. Just in case anyone was wondering.

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …

BUY-SELL.gif




(Sell) It's not out of the realm of possibility if Majors doesn't play better. The fact that he's undersized and not yet a plus player leaves his starting position in a vulnerable state, but I'm going to give him some benefit of the doubt ... for now.



(Sell/Buy/Sell/Sell/Buy)

It's really hard for me to see an upset here when you consider all of the dynamics in play, including a completely one-sided quarterback match-up at this stage of August. No single player should ever be the deciding factor in whether a coach should keep his job. This isn't Hickory and none of these dudes are Jimmy Chitwood. I'm thinking Kwiatkowski keeps his job for the entire season. It's hard for me to give Card benefit of the doubt without a little more evidence. Finally, not only have I been to Columbia, but I've sung karaoke there in front of Jackie Sherrill and DeLoss Dodds.



(Sell) That tells me nothing about the defense and special teams.



(Buy) Certainly among the highest-ranked players who own the most NIL value.



(Sell) Isn't the smart money on one of the quarterbacks getting injured at some point? That feels somewhat likely ... the amount of games missed due to those injuries is a total wildcard.



(Sell) I'd buy top 40, I suppose. The issue with a top-50 defense is that it means it likely played like a top-70 defense in the games that matter the most.



(Sell) Give me the wide receivers. Even if he averages 5.9 yards per carry as he did last season, Roschon Johnson would need 170 carries to get to 1,000. He received 96 last year and that included two starts.


(Buy) Yes, I believe that.


(Sell) I'm not quite sure he's ready to be that player.


(Buy) It better.


(Sell) Don't take my selling as a sign that I don't love the boldness of the question/suggestion.


(Sell) Great question, though. I suppose it comes down to the optics of the second mulligan.



(Sell)
kevin-hart-wtf.gif




(Buy) That feels much more realistic.



(Buy) Five-star linebackers don't grow on trees, but when they are found, they tend to be difference-makers more times than not. It all comes down to the combination of injury and small school status of Gullette. Without the injury to him, I'd probably sell the question, but given the circumstances, the math says that Hill has about a 60-percent chance of becoming the kind of linebacker that gets drafted on day one or day two of the NFL draft, while the historical data says that the chances for Gullette, Baxter and Matthews are in the 20-25% range for each.

No. 8 - Scattershooting ...

... True story ... I didn't watch a single play from the Jacksonville/Las Vegas pre-season game.

... This year's NFL Hall of Fame Class feels a lot more like Hall of Very Good group.

... Zeke Elliott is still going in third and fourth rounds in fantasy. If you've got the last pick in the fourth round, would you dare to go Zeke?

... I missed the Astros/Red Sox game this week that I was planning to take my family to. Consider me very disappointed.

... Color me shocked that the Phillies are 12 games over .500 without Bryce Harper. I did not see that coming.

... If the Phillies flame out in the National League, I want to see Dodgers and Padres in a 7-game series.

... Austin FC are going to finish second in the West in MLS because they aren't good enough at home. What a weird, true sentence.

... Erling Haaland is good ... duh.

... No, I haven't completely recovered from that poor Liverpool performance. It impacted my mood the entire weekend.

No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Eva Cassidy songs ...
View attachment 3079

I'll never forget the moment I was introduced to Eva Cassidy's voice.

I was on a date watching the movie Love Actually at the theater when the voice of an angel knocked me on the floor (for those that have seen the movie, it's during the scene when Laura Linney is about to shag Carl). As soon as 30 seconds of Songbird had played in the theater, I had to hear more of that voice.

As soon as I got home, I went online and my heart broke when I learned that Cassidy had died of melanoma in 1996.

From that moment on, I've been obsessed with Cassidy's music and it occurred to me in the last two weeks that she's my favorite vocalist of all time. I'm convinced that if anyone on earth ever had the voice of an angel, it was her.

For those that might be unfamiliar with her work, this might be the greatest gift I'll ever give you.

Let's get on with the list.

10. Ain't No Sunshine

Quite a bit of the world was introduced to Eva in this Nightline piece done on her, a piece that is regarded as one of the most popular that Nightline has ever produced.

9. People Get Ready

One of the great songs of all-time by The Impressions, Eva wraps herself around it in a way that makes it a completely different experience. I'm telling you, she has the voice of an angel.

8. Autumn Leaves

One of the more haunting songs that Eva ever recorded is this 40s standard originally written by Johnny Mercer.

7. True Colors

Eva phrases her words in song as well as anyone that ever lived and the proof is all over this all-time Cyndi Lauper track. Yes, it's a better version than the original because almost everything Eva ever touched was better than the original.

6. Imagine

Her take on this John Lennon classic will melt you.

5. Drown in My Own Tears

Her album with the great Chuck Brown called The Other Side is one of the best albums you've almost certainly never heard. Their cover of this old Ray Charles track is my favorite song on the album.

4. Time is a Healer

Eva turns it completely loose in this bluesy number in a way that gives you an idea of the type of music she could have made in the R&B/Blues world if she had ever been able to connect with the right producer/label.

3. Fields of Gold

Although Sting is very territorial of this song, he was moved to tears the first time Eva's version was played for him.

2. Songbird

I knew my wife Heather was the woman I was supposed to marry when we both agreed that this was going to be the song for the first dance at our wedding and it was.

1. Over the Rainbow

The definitive version of this song. Just amazing. I cry almost every time I listen to it.

No. 10 - And Finally ...

Was thinking the other day just how unlucky I was to miss Jerry Gray and the 1983 Texas defense. The first Texas game I ever watched in person was in 1984 when the Longhorns lost in Waco, which means that I did see Gray play in the flesh while he was a Longhorns player, but it means I missed him on the best team/defense that he ever played on.

I'd have loved to have seen this game at Auburn.
UT ex 82-86.
Was friends with a stating DL. Easily the most physical defense I have ever seen at the college level.
 
No. 4 - Two more things with Wilson ...

The dude has enough athletic ability as an edge rusher to hit his head on the backboard in the gym. Kids, do not do this at home.

That's exactly why I never tried it.

BTW, excellent write up as usual
 
I'd have loved to have seen this game at Auburn.

I grew up in southwest Georgia, had a relative who worked for the Auburn athletic department, and was a huge Auburn fan as a kid. Went to every home game for about ten years, including the ‘83 game against Texas as an 8 year old. The Texas defense dominated the game, completely shutting down a one sided Auburn offense. Auburn lost the turnover battle, gave up a couple of big passing plays, and could never get their own offense going. Jackson hardly touched the ball, which is pretty wild. If you look up his stats, they only gave him the ball about 14 times a game that year, but he averaged 7.7 ypc. I’m no head coach, but I might have given it to him 20+ times a game.

That Auburn team was very good. They consecutively played and beat 5 ranked teams to end the year including Florida, Maryland, Georgia, Bama, and Michigan. This was back in the days where Auburn played rivals Florida, Georgia, and Bama either consecutively or in a four week period, which Pat Dye referred to as Amen Corner. Because you went into it praying for deliverance and came out of with a prayer of thanks for its conclusion.

After seeing Texas in person early in the Fall, I thought for sure they were going to win the title. Was shocked when they lost to Georgia in the Cotton bowl.
 
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