Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (A different kind of Texas quarterback discussion ...)

Discussion in 'Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend Archive' started by Ketchum, May 6, 2018.

  1. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    [​IMG]

    Let's talk about the quarterback play for the Longhorns for a moment in a way that doesn't dive into the normal Texas quarterback discussion.

    For one day, let's not focus on who will be the Texas quarterback, but the form the Longhorns truly need to demand from the position if the program wants to contend for a Big 12 championship. Frankly, I think the data reveals some legitimate reasons for optimism for Texas fans going into a season with so much uncertainty at the most important position in the entire sport by a healthy margin.

    Let's begin the discussion in earnest with a look at the quarterback ratings of every Big 12 champion since the turn of the decade, otherwise known as the moment the Texas program fell into the abyss:

    2017 Baker Mayfield (OU): 198.9
    2016 Baker Mayfield (OU): 196.4
    2015 Baker Mayfield (OU): 173.3
    2014 Bryce Petty (Baylor): 157.8
    2014 Trevone Boykin (TCU): 161.6
    2013 Bryce Petty (Baylor): 174.3
    2012 Landry Jones (OU) 144.6
    2012 Collin Klein (KSU): 149.2
    2011: Brandon Weeden (OSU): 159.7
    2010: Landry Jones (OU): 143.8

    When looking at the data, a few things stand out ...

    a. My goodness, Baker Mayfield. I cannot even quite wrap my head around his level of play for the Sooners in each of the last two seasons, as he's been at least 20 points better than any quarterback in the history of the conference.

    When Vince Young departed Texas following the 2005 season, he was the No. 1 player in the country in passing efficiency at 163.9, which was exactly 35 points behind what Mayfield posted 12 seasons later.

    b. With Mayfield's numbers in the equation, the average between 10 quarterbacks over eight seasons is 166.0, but if you eliminate the historically obscene Mayfield from the last two seasons, the number drops to 158.0.

    c. There's a definite uptick over the last five seasons (2013-2017) from the previous three (2010-12). The lowest quarterback rating since 2013 was Bryce Petty's 157.8, while three of the four previous quarterbacks from 2010-12 posted sub-150 ratings.

    It seems pretty easy to point out that the quarterback play inside the league from the last five seasons was simply significantly better than when the likes of Landry Jones and Collin Klein were the quarterback bell cows on championship teams, with all due respect to both players, who were excellent college football players. Yet, it's fair to ask whether the 2018 season in the Big 12 will follow in the footstep of the tremendous quarterback play of recent years or drop into the territory comprised of mostly mere mortals.

    Consider the number posted by the returning starting quarterbacks in the Big 12 last season:

    Will Grier (West Virginia) 162.7
    Zach Smith (Baylor) 118.9
    Peyton Bender (Kansas) 108.5
    Carter Stanley (Kansas) 104.5

    Those were the only returning quarterbacks in the Big 12 last season with enough attempts to qualify in the NCAA passer standings according to the official Big 12 website. If you're wondering about the Longhorns, Sam Ehlinger posted a 124.2 rating, while Shane Buechele posted a 126.8 rating, respectively.

    Outside of West Virginia, who might have a first-round draft pick on its hands with Grier, every program in the Big 12 is facing major uncertainty at the position, which means it's very possible that we'll see a starting quarterback on a championship team with a quarterback rating closer to Klein's than Petty's, let alone Mayfield's.

    So, what does Texas need from its quarterbacks, considering it has had only one quarterback in the last eight seasons come close to the numbers Landry Jones posted at the position? Well, I'd contend that if you could take it to the bank right now that the Longhorns could get the production David Ash posted as a sophomore in 2012, the Longhorns could very well be playing in the Big 12 championship game in six months.

    Ash's numbers that year?

    2,699 yards. 8.5 yards per attempt. 19 touchdowns. 8 interceptions. 153.3 rating.

    Not great, but supremely rock solid and certainly good enough if the team surrounding him holds up its end of the bargain.

    The question Texas has on its hands is whether it can get its quarterbacks up to the level of David Ash rock-solid?

    Luckily for the Longhorns, it's a question that nine out of the 10 teams in the Big 12 are asking themselves at this very moment.

    No. 2 - Elephant in the Room ...
    [​IMG]

    We're not even going to recognize the Oklahoma offense of the last few years with Mayfield no longer pulling the strings.

    Those words aren't aimed as some sort of insult towards the players fighting for the position in the wake of his departure as much as it's a nod to just how spectacular one of the best quarterbacks in college football history truly was.

    It's not hyperbole to point out just how different of a team the three-time defending champions of the league would have looked without its member of the Avengers leading the charge. Mason Rudolph is arguably the best quarterback Mike Gundy has ever coached and he was nearly 30 points behind Mayfield in efficiency rating.

    Basically, a reset button has been hit on the entire league.

    No. 3 - Question I simply cannot answer today ...

    West Virginia's Will Grier is clearly the choice at the first-team quarterback position when the media and coaches announce their pre-season All-Big 12 teams, but who in the hell do you vote in for the second-team spot?

    Someone that has never played or someone that has played, but played poorly?

    No. 4 - Attention, Texas offensive coaches ...

    When David Ash posted that 153.3 rating back in 2012, his average yards per attempt was a healthy 8.5.

    Last year, Ehlinger and Buechele posted marks of 7.0 and 6.6, respectively.

    Those numbers are absolutely woeful and speak to an offense without a healthy passing game plan. A program directed by a head coach with an offensive background must do better. Period. It can't just be that the quarterbacks have to be better. It's everyone.

    No. 5 - Introducing, your new starting running back ...

    Confession time.

    I wasn't really blown away by the prospect of Tre Watson signing with the Longhorns when the possibility was first mentioned. On some level, we're talking about a guy that couldn't win a job at Cal.

    Yet, as time has rolled on, the spring game has taken place and I've done a little more studying on the guy outside of just looking at stats and recalling what he looked like in a glance against Texas, I've taken about a 167-degree turn on the guy for the following reasons.

    a. He's a totally different type of running back than the guys that the Longhorns currently having on campus. Honestly, he reminds me of the type of running back that typically gains 1,200 all-purpose yards for Texas Tech on an annual basis. He's less of an every-down back and more of a guy that you give the ball to 15-18 times a game, including at least five or six in the passing game in a variety of ways. You want this guy in space as much as possible and that's not exactly the first thing you say about Toneil Carter or Daniel Young. His arrival diversifies the skill set of the position immediately.

    b. I can't explain the situation at Cal, but this kid is talented. As I mentioned, Watson can make guys miss and he can make plays in a variety of roles. He kind of reminds me of a poor man's Hodges Mitchell, who would have been an even better college player than he already was if he had arrived 20 years later to the college game than he did.

    Bottom line - I think the Texas football team just acquired a player that could prove to be critically important for this team. If he's healthy and not on the field on every third down passing situation that the team has this year, the coaches won't be doing their jobs right.



    No. 6 – Time to enjoy the rest of life ...
    [​IMG]

    Former Texas great Michael Griffin will officially announce his retirement on Monday after signing a one-day contract with Tennessee.

    He'll depart the game as a player with 10 NFL seasons under his belt, two Pro Bowl appearances, 912 tackles and 25 career interceptions.

    A case can be made that for all of the great defensive backs the Longhorns have developed in the last two decades, only Earl Thomas can claim to producing a better NFL career than the former Austin Bowie star.

    Once upon a time, a long time ago, I remember pulling Griffin aside after a basketball game for an interview and telling him I thought he was one of the best players in the state of Texas. With no offers on the table at the time, I remember Griffin essentially telling me he thought I was full of crap. What transpired out of his athletic career is probably beyond what he once thought possible, but it happened and I have to admit that he's one of my favorite players to follow while covering the Longhorns.

    Even when he called me out on the Orangebloods message boards once for a comment I made about his brother Marcus in a scrimmage, I always loved the fact that he had a brain, opinions, cultivating world views and wasn't afraid to be a person first, and a football player second.

    Here's hoping the game didn't take too much from his mind, body and soul, and that the rest of his years are even better the ones spent playing football. Hey, he's going to have more time for his dogs moving forward and I'm guessing he'll love that.

    No. 7a – Getting it done in Lubbock ...

    Pitching concerns be damned, the Texas baseball team had one objective this weekend, win its series in Lubbock against its gorilla-ball inspired opponents.

    By hook or crook, just win the damn thing because with a path towards a conference title on its way to being closed, positioning itself for a possible regional hosting position is paramount in this final regular-season homestretch.

    Damn if they didn't pull it off.

    After trading haymakers in the opening two games, Sunday's game turned into a back and forth affair and this team deserves a lot of credit for picking itself up off the canvas, surviving some a scary bases-loaded situation and rallying to declare victory over a top-10 opponent on the road.

    Without getting too caught up in the result, a case can be made that the last three days are a defining moment of the regular season. Yes, future days in the post-season will define the season as a whole because that's what truly defines seasons around here, but if this team finishes its business in the coming weeks, the result in Lubbock could lead this team hosting a regional to begin the post-season.

    So, yeah, taking two out of three this weekend was pretty big.

    Now make sure you don’t screw around next weekend and lose the feather in your cap that was obtained this weekend.

    No. 7b – This is big ...


    I don't care that Danni Williams is a left-handed three-pointing shooting guard senior grad transfer that not only immediately gives Karen Aston an offensive weapon she dearly needs.

    I mean.. it's not that I don't care. Of course, it's more than noteworthy when a second-team All-SEC player transfers to another school.

    But, let's not bury the lede here.

    Danni Williams has spent her entire college career in College Station surrounded by people that loath all things burnt orange. Like they hate the University of Texas more than they hate themselves.

    Yet, with a chance to decide her own future, she basically turned to every Aggie she's ever known and essentially said, "Holla! You'd be here too, if you could be. Don't trip."

    The people in that town will never forgive her. She's forever be seen as the worst kind of traitor in their eyes, which means I've never even seen her play and I already know that she has more guts than anyone else in the Texas athletic department.

    You go, girl. Go get you some buckets.

    No. 8 – Buy or Sell …
    [​IMG]

    BUY or SELL: Todd Orlando is not coaching at Texas in 2020?

    (Buy) I have to think a head coaching offer will come in one of the next couple of years.

    BUY or SELL: .Texas wins a conference title in the next 3 years?

    (Buy) Total leap of faith.

    BUY or SELL: “Blueberries" will be the safe word for the podcast?

    (Buy) From now on, the safe word for the TicketCity Podcast is blueberries.

    BUY or SELL: The Official visit blows DeMarvin Leal away; and he flips to the good guys?

    (Sell) I just don't have enough information yet to make that kind of claim. Stay tuned.

    BUY or SELL: NaNa is a Horn later this month?

    (Buy) If you're even (coming into the final official visit), you're leaving.

    BUY or SELL: When you started Orangebloods, you had no idea of the community that would develop, which makes this message board the wonderful train wreck that it is?

    (Sell) This is exactly what I had in mind when I started Orangebloods. You have to remember that Hornsfans.com was the 2,000-pound gorilla of the Texas online world when this site first started and not only was its traffic out of this world, but they had about a dozen boards for all topics. I knew that if Orangebloods was going to separate itself in terms of a community, it needed to be different, which is why I streamed all of the traffic to our premium board, while allowing off-topic posts at the same time, which was a major turnoff for some people in the launch of the site. However, I trusted that a board with free-flowing thought on all topics with a ton of UT football talk inside of it (and limited moderation outside of some basic ground rules) would do very well. It's probably more of a train wreck than I imagined, but I imagined quite a train wreck back in 2001.

    BUY or SELL: Though the reasons for the lack of NFL prospects comparatively from the state of Texas is a multi-factor issue, two of the largest factors are the proliferation of spread offenses in the state (which rewards the ability to operate well in space, a skill that is not as valuable at the pro level) and the advanced development in our state’s high school programs (which results in kids getting closer to their top skill level more quickly and having less room for improvement later - which also leaves some kids with higher ceilings but a slower development path behind and undiscovered).

    (Buy) There are lots of reasons, as you stated, but buy.

    BUY or SELL: At least one RB (anyone) has 500+ rushing yards this year?

    (Buy) It might be close, though.

    BUY or SELL: Barring injuries, I can borrow 100k from this Russian guy I know and bet Texas win total over 7 for 2018?


    (Buy) Definitely yes, if you're including the bowl game. Otherwise, I'd be careful with the Russians.

    No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
    [​IMG]

    ... My eyes tell me that LeBron James is the greatest basketball player I have ever seen and my brain tells me that it's blasphemy to say such a thing. Considering we use championships as the defining bar in these conversations, he'll probably never receive the true glory he deserves, but I've never ... ever ... ever ... seen anything like LeBron. None of us have.

    ... I'm not happy with what's happened to Ben Simmons and the Sixers in falling behind 3-0 to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals, but the team (and especially Simmons) haven't quite been ready for the stage they’re on. In time, Simmons will be better for suffering through the worst basketball of his career, but it sucks at the moment.

    ... The Warriors/Rockets showdown is about a week away. Let the glorious basketball begin.

    ... Dez Bryant is experiencing some humble days right about now, I'm guessing. Is there any market for him at all? Honestly, I'm a little surprised the Packers haven't taken a flyer on him.

    ... Wait, so the Kentucky Derby was this weekend?

    No. 10 – And Finally …

    This made me quite emotional on Sunday morning. I have twins that are four. Trust me, you won't see anything better all week than this video.

     
  2. riloh05

    riloh05 Well-Known Member
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    One’th
     
    2 riloh05, May 6, 2018
    Last edited: May 6, 2018
  3. Napaak

    Napaak Well-Known Member
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    It’s already being reported elsewhere NaNa is going to ND. Y’all need better recruiting sources. We weren’t even going in. He was heavily leaning ND and we didn’t do enough this weekend.
     
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  4. HoyaHorn

    HoyaHorn Well-Known Member
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    Top 5 ... but this doesn’t count bc it’s not the War Room.
     
  5. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    we'll see.

    In the meantime, no need to be an ass.
     
  6. AnwarsFedora

    AnwarsFedora Well-Known Member
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    It would be a wonderful world if everyone acted like that kid.
    [​IMG]
     
  7. drunk randoke

    drunk randoke Ok cool. Hook 'em
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    I thought I was the OB podcast safe word?
     
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  8. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    No doubt about that. We all need to be a little more like that super hero.
     
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  9. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    you're the trigger word.
     
  10. Alfordjm

    Alfordjm Thanks for comin’ out
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    Says the guy who heard from the guy that the other guy had a guy who knew the guy with the information.
     
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  11. mb2cotter

    mb2cotter Well-Known Member
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    That Sunday morning story busted me up this morning. The sincerity in that kid really got to me.
     
  12. Appian_Way

    Appian_Way Moderately well-known
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    President Austin has my vote. Great kid!
     
  13. EPHORN

    EPHORN Well-Known Member
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    Shut your dirty whore mouth!!
     
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  14. SparkHorn

    SparkHorn Well-Known Member
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    @Ketchum If you were Herman would you pursue Joe Burrow if he decides to transfer now that he graduated today?

    He gets to play two years immediately as well.
     
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  15. Colonel Banana Dark

    Colonel Banana Dark Unofficial Bagman
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    Given the latest commits, you ready to go 8.5 yet...or did last year burn you too much?
     
  16. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    If I think he improves the quarterback room, I do.
     
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  17. MauiHorn

    MauiHorn Well-Known Member
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    Once I saw Tre with that diving catch in the end zone, I stopped watching cause my hopes were starting to get WAY WAY up. If we have a back who can pull of screens, a TE and just an average OLine along with a kicker, we have no excuses not to win the conference given our defense. But, I hate when I get this way.
     
  18. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    still 8.
     
  19. markrace

    markrace Well-Known Member
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    #10...all day every day...we all could learn a thing or two from that young man.
     
  20. MikeCorleone

    MikeCorleone “It’s not personal. It’s strictly business.”
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    Texas fans forget how good Ash was in 2012.
     
  21. Ajaa23

    Ajaa23 New Member
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    I’m surprised El Clasico didn’t get a mention from you this weekend. What a game.
     
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  22. Horn_for_life

    Horn_for_life Well-Known Member
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    My biggest take away from the Tre Young clips, BLOCKING and SCHEME matter. Jesus, he was running through space about half the time untouched. Our guys were dodging defensive lineman in the backfield most of the time. That being said he looks like a player that can help us, glad to have him on board.
     
  23. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    My brain was gone at the end.
     
  24. Dualthreat

    Dualthreat Sign Darnell Wright, Evan Neal, Ray Parker
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    Tre Watson looks like he has the ability to be a real contributor on the Texas offense in 2018. He also has explosive play ability. I like your take, and applaud CTH and Co. for landing this young man. Hook'em!
     
  25. bkennedy404

    bkennedy404 Well-Known Member
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    Thanks for the inside info on Michael Griffin, I’m sure you have more great stories about UT NFL players, keep ‘em coming!
     
  26. wfoot

    wfoot Well-Known Member
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    I am not a Bron fan, but I don't think it is even close that he is the GOAT. Bigger, stronger, even faster than Michael. I know most won't agree because it is not popular to think that anyone is better than Jordan, but I really don't think it is close. And I really don't like LeBron at all.
     
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  27. NativeTex

    NativeTex Well-Known Member
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    Watson
     
  28. Rotarran9116

    Rotarran9116 Sith Lord
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  29. HornDozer

    HornDozer Well-Known Member
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    Pardon my dumpth. Joe Burrow?
     
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  30. bevos2009run

    bevos2009run Well-Known Member
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    How is that being an ass? Seen a lot better on campus.
     
  31. Vegas Horn

    Vegas Horn Well-Known Member
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    James is the better athlete. Jordan is the better player.
     
  32. pdrscott99

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    Yea, this world needs more kids like that young boy. Outstanding heart and intelligence at 4 on identifying a problem and try to heartfeltly resolve it any way he can.
     
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  33. Russhorn

    Russhorn Well-Known Member
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    Who liked this trash? I mean, if he goes to ND so be it but the kid has been pretty pro Texas for a while now and been on our campus a lot. One thing I have noticed about the OB staff is that they don’t Chase rumors and don’t make bad guesses very often. Others, not so much.

    It seems there are a few folks on here that are incredulous at the idea that Nana might be a horn. I question that position, and wonder why you pay to post here. Stay on your own board.
     
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  34. streettopeschel

    streettopeschel '...suck it up and pick a number '
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    @Ketchum , toward the end of year 3 of Smart’s tenure, while he was headed toward another sub-.500 conference season, you declared him a ‘damn good coach’.

    Pierce took over a program in worse shape and is doing much better. What is your description of him?
     
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  35. BigPoppaPelt

    BigPoppaPelt Well-Known Member
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    @Ketchum great read, good effort this week.
     
  36. wbrom42

    wbrom42 Unmasked Crusader
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    They are all saying that because Nahlin from IT is saying it.

    It sounds like Nana is a smart kid. I can’t see him going to play for an asshole that’s on a warm seat.
     
  37. Jeffreyb31

    Jeffreyb31 Well-Known Member
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    Way to be a DBag.
     
  38. HuffTex

    HuffTex Well-Known Member
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    Lebron is amazing. He's not Michael amazing, but absence has drained some of our memories on that...I remember you saying, at one point, that Kobe was more athletic than MJ, so I imagine this falls into that category. If he was doing this in the Western Conference, I might agree....but the teams he is doing this against would be Teams 5-8, at best, in the West....it has been that way for a while. He is tremendous. An absolute FREAK....but he ain't Mike.
     
  39. HookemUK

    HookemUK I read OBs for the articles
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    Preach! \m/
     
    Lilboots2012 likes this.
  40. HawaiianHorn

    HawaiianHorn Well-Known Member
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    Uh, no. Hell no. He's top 5 but anything more is classic recency bias. Jordan would average 40/10/10 in today's NBA and might never lose a game in today's eastern conference.

    LeBron is a great player and I like him alot but Jordan he is not.


     

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