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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (A moment of great opportunity...)

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
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For the record, there's a part of me that feels a little iffy about writing this first section in the column, mostly because it’s odd talking about the possible next coach before the current coach has officially been given very lucrative walking papers.

I considered going with a super in-depth analysis of the Herman Era in Austin, but the reality is that we've litigated his career endlessly in real time. Been there, done that, a million times. If the Pete Thamels of the world want to give it a crack, they can knock themselves out.

We've reached the point of no return for a million reasons, the least of which isn't an athletic director in Chris Del Conte that knows his financial base will come for his blood if he doesn't serve Herman up on a platter after what amounts to one of the most miserable last six months for supporters in the history of the program. We don't even have to discuss the current lack of recruiting momentum, which has been dead for more than a year with the 2021 class because of the first point. There will be change or there will be an uprising revolt that Del Conte is not about to risk his neck over.

Therefore, my focus is on the elephant in the room that all of you are focused on - will Texas be able to close the deal with the apple of its current eye ... Urban Meyer?

Writing about anything else feels like an insult to everyone's intelligence.

So, let's talk about it.

This is a moment of truth that will be remembered for its outcome for what could amount to decades. At a time when Oklahoma is going for its sixth straight Big 12 title, LSU is coming off a national title and Texas A&M is on the cusp of a playoff spot with its best team since the 1990s, it's time for the Longhorns to join their surrounding neighbors at the big boy's table in college football.

A decade of sitting at the kid's table and watching the adults do adult things is enough.

Also, unlike in 2013 when the pursuit of Alabama head coach Nick Saban was knocked off its axis before anyone could ever truly know what Saban would do if the Longhorns had made a stunning financial offer, there's no complications of the current favorite target being in the middle of a championship season or a legendary head coach who can filibuster the days away in front of an administration that feels helpless in calling him in from the road.

Meyer is there for the taking ... a free agent with whom Texas can not only strike a deal (in theory), but his presence on the Fox national studio show through December 19 means that if the Longhorns can land Meyer, they could have a free national advertisement for the program for any of the remaining three Saturdays left in the regular season if they can do it somewhat quickly.

After what easily amounts to the worst decade of football in the modern era of the program, you're damn right we're at a major moment of truth.

Say whatever you want about Chris Del Conte's bungling of Herman's contract or his inaction over The Eyes of Texas for weeks and months at a time, if he finds a way to close the deal with one of only two certifiable sure-things in the world of college football (no, I don't count Dabo) his legacy as Texas as an athletic director will be cemented, as it will represent the most baller thing that the university has ever done in football.

Up until now, the hiring of Mack Brown is the most emphatic hire in the history of the football program in terms of accomplishments before arriving at Texas and he arrived from North Carolina never quite able to be better than Bobby Bowden. Shaka Smart was considered a major coup when he was hired and nothing else quite compares to the hire of Augie Garrido from Fullerton two-plus decades ago.

A hire of Meyer would surpass all of that with relative ease.

So, where do things stand?

* It is believed that Meyer and Texas have been holding off on officially playing footsy with each other for the last two months until the Herman matter played itself out. Now that it has, real conversations can take place. They likely have already started. Nothing is standing in the way at this point, with all due respect to the still employed Herman. If Meyer was to take the job, Del Conte and Co. would almost certainly follow his direction from an announcement standpoint.

* 100 million X 10 years. That's the number I've heard mentioned to me this weekend with regards to a contract Meyer would desire. Is that crazy? Well, if Jimbo Fisher can get $75 million over the same time period, a superior coach with the most leverage any coach has ever had can probably get 100. Also, that might be 100 million, plus bonuses. Meyer ain't coming here on a lay-away plan.

* Meyer hasn't decided if he's coming back into coaching and this is not viewed as some simple thing that can be overlooked. The thing that Texas wants to be able to accomplish very soon is putting a real decision in his hands that he'd make with his family. It's hard to say how his wife and family would feel about a 10-year commitment to another job in coaching when as recently as two weeks ago, there was a very clear "on the record" opinion on the matter.
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I'm not sure it gets more complicated than that. Texas wants Urban. Texas won't get Urban without a record-breaking contract. Urban then needs to make a life decision with his family.

Del Conte doing his part would mean us hearing in the next few days to a week that Meyer has an emphatic financial commitment in front him to talk about. Beyond promising him the moon in terms of staffing and future facilities, that's about as far as Texas can go. Ultimately, this will come down to what Meyer will or won't do if Texas paints a picture for him that truly proves tempting.

Handicapping what Meyer will do is pretty much impossible. Behind the scenes, few people are openly talking about the possibility and no one seems to possess any overconfidence.

This is where we are ... a moment of uncertainty while we wait.

My guess is that one way or another, we won't be waiting much longer.

No. 2 - A quick thought about Herman ...

One of the things I've been thinking about with regard to Herman is his future.

While Texas fans are rightfully cool on him as a leader of a nationally elite program trying to compete at the very highest levels, he's not going to walk out of here with the shame that soaked Charlie Strong. This is a guy that will be able to claim that he (potentially) led Texas to two of its best seasons since 2010 in the last three years, never lost a bowl game, won a major bowl and nabbed a pair of national top-10 recruiting classes.

Herman might have given LHN the finger, struggled against OU and never could be better than "pretty good" for any extended stretch. But whatever happens from here, you'd have to think he'll get a chance to rebuild his career narrative in the coming years.

If I was Herman, I'd walk out of here gracefully and with my head held high, while collecting a check from Texas for the next year to do nothing but watch every season of The Wire and every other show he's never seen. I'd tell my agent to get me a gig on the studio set of Fox, ABC or ESPN, with an eye on using my TV background to rebuild my brand.

After recharging my batteries, I'd start looking for a return to coaching in 2022, knowing that I'll look very attractive to schools with demands that aren't quite as sky high as they are in Austin.

With Dana Holgorsen somewhat floundering at Houston, I would think a possible return (ala Greg Schiano at Rutgers) to H-Town could always loom should Holgorsen continue to flounder. Regardless, he'll get another at-bat as a head coach soon. It's just a matter of when and where.

No. 3 - About Sam Cosmi's decision to go pro ...

I guess one of the bright spots of having seven captains on your squad is that if one quits with two games to go in the season, you’ve still got a half-dozen captains on which to lean.

Woof.

Let me just say that I understand where Cosmi is coming from. There was scuttlebutt behind the scenes that if the season had been canceled because of COVID, Cosmi would have left for the NFL without ever playing another down for the Longhorns. He's a guy that has seemingly had his eyes on an exit for more than a weekend or two and there's more downside than upside in playing in the final couple of games of the season.

So, I'm not tripping.

But, I don't like it if we're going to keep it a buck.

The romantic in me believes that a guy wearing the captain's badge finishes out the season out of principles rooted in the unofficial oath one makes when he accepts a leadership role on a team sport. It won't cost him any money because NFL teams won't give a damn about this any more than Texas fans care about whatever has happened in Urban Meyer's past.

I just come from a place where you finish what you start if you're a leader.

No. 4 - The upcoming timeline ...

Here's a look at the critical dates to keep in mind over the course of the next few weeks, as we watch whatever unfolds actually unfold.

Monday, November 30th - Herman's Monday Press Conference at noon

Wednesday, December 2nd - Herman's buyout falls to $15,416,667.

Saturday, December 5th - Texas at Kansas State

Monday, December 8th - Herman's Monday Press Conference at noon

Saturday, December 12th - Texas at Kansas

Wednesday, December 16th - Start of the first early signing period for the 2021 recruiting class.

Saturday, December 19th - End of the college football regular-season.

Sunday, December 20th - College football playoff/Bowl announcements

Notes: There are essentially two things in play here. There's been a lot of talk about December 1 being a significant date to keep an eye on, but the buyout for Herman is $15,416,667. That's the amount no matter when it happens. If you're thinking of Meyer as the hire, you'd think that the critical time for it to go down would be sometime in the next two weeks because the sooner Meyer is announced, the more it helps having complete answers with an eye on recruiting and the pending NSD on the 16th.

If it's not Meyer, the Longhorns probably won't have a coach in place by the 16th, unless they look to hire someone that isn't playing in a conference title game on the 19th, which would mean that the hire would probably move towards the last week of December or the first week of January.

No. 5 - What about Saturday in Manhattan ...

On one hand, the Wildcats aren't a very good team, but on the other hand, the Longhorns play a coin-flip game on a weekly basis and are so mentally dialed in after Friday's loss that a captain just quit.

Meanwhile, I'd bet $20 that every assistant coach and football operations guy in the program is thinking as much about what happens after the next two weeks than the final two weeks of the season. That's just the industry.

I guess what I'm saying is that Herman will likely have his hands full getting a group of guys that traditionally struggles on the road under Herman to have a great mindset going into the weekend.

No. 6 - An early claim ...

Because I can't think of the person that's better than him or even deserves to truly be in the discussion (with apologies to Tremaine Wingfield, Kris Clack and a couple of others), I'm just going to go ahead and label Greg Brown as the greatest in-game dunker in Texas hoops history.

By the end of the season, his season highlight reel is going to look different than any player that has ever played for the Longhorns.


No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
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Herman is gone.
(Buy) We're just too far down the road. The toxicity cannot be sustained for another 12 months.

If UM doesn’t coach here, he doesn’t coach next year.
(Buy) I think this might just be the last coaching job he ever considers when you consider the 10-year attachment he seems to want to include in it. This is the moment of truth about his future, I would think.

Texas completely 2020’s this coaching search and we wind up with someone that causes a huge meltdown on the board. Repeating all of the prior missteps over the past decade.
(Sell) I shouldn't be giving any benefit of the doubt, but it does not feel like 2013 or 2016.

Matt Campbell and Mario Cristobal are the first two calls if Urban says no
(Sell) They might be called, but there has to be a splashier back-up option than that somewhere.

Meyer vs The Field. The smart money is on the Field.
(Sell) Great question. I'll take Meyer in that equation. I cannot completely explain why.

If Meyer is announced... either Ewers or Brockermeyers make surprise announcement and switch their commitment
(Buy) Ewers IMO.

Sam plays against KU
(Buy) I don't think he could live with himself if he quit at this point. He has more of a legacy to worry about than anyone else in the program.

If Urban Meyer says no, then over 75% of the fans will be disappointed with whoever is named the new head coach.
(Buy) You misspelled 95%.

Like you say, timing is everything. The timing for hiring a NC winning coach has and never will be better than right at this moment in time.
(Buy) Never.

Texas makes the right hire and is back to national prominence within 3 years?
(Buy) I'm a carnival worker. I can't kill the dream that one of your shots on that crooked 12-foot rim won't ever go in.

It doesn’t mean anything that a normal Herman press conference is scheduled for tomorrow.
(Sell) It means that he'll coach through Saturday.

The outcome of the Big 12 Missile Crisis worked out best for Texas.
(Sell) Nothing has been working out for Texas.

Cristobal is an upgrade over Herman.
(Buy) He'd immediately make Texas a threat for a top-five recruiting class in 2022. He's Tim Brewster in the form of a head coach.

Urban Meyer can be had with a $9M per for 5 year ($45M) fully guaranteed contract that also pays a $500K bonus for conference titles and $1.5M bonus for national titles.
(Sell) Say it with me... 100 million and 10 years. He's not taking less than Jimbo.

You’d take OU to beat A&M in Cotton Bowl.
(Buy) I'll take Rattler over Mond.

Herman knows he is done and plans to let all of Urban’s dirty little secrets out to CDC in an effort to block CUM to Texas – very Mack- like with Saban
(Sell) If Herman wanted to be effective, he might go in and tell CDC that he should hire Meyer because only a Jedi mind trick is working on Del Conte with regards to Herman at this point.

Morally, you support the hiring of Urban Meyer
(Sell) I'm just not sure what pretend world we're living in where morals matter at all. Maybe the biggest secret the devil ever played was convincing Texas administration officials that having their cake and eating it too was remotely possible. This is a sport where everyone that is in it wears pig boots because of the mess they walk around in daily. I just don't know what I feel morally about Meyer is supposed to translate to. I personally haven't supported the morals of any head coach I've ever covered at Texas for a variety of reasons. That includes Mack Brown, who is about as clean as they come, but still knew to how to get down in a street fight with knives. If I'm in a position of covering Meyer on a daily basis, my thoughts about his past incidents related to the protection of Zach Smith are well known, which means I'll focus on the future instead of re-litigating the past and I'll hope there's never a repeat of those situations in Austin. Frankly, we all need to come to grips with the fact that we're eating pork if we want to truly enjoy eating our bacon ... because it's pork.

If UM declines our offer, Hugh Freeze should be considered?
(Sell) Not good enough.

Kansas game is canceled
(Buy) Will either side want the game played?

Historically, as the OL goes, so goes the Texas football program.
(Sell) Texas played in a national championship game in 2009 with an offensive line that didn't have a single true standout on it.

TEXAS accepts an invitation to a crummy bowl game if it finishes with a 6-4 record and Herman is fired, but is allowed to coach the bowl game.
(Buy) Yeah, either 6-4 or 5-4. Or 6-3

Texas finishes top 8 in recruiting with Urban.
(Sell) That ship has sailed, but 2022 would be cracking.

More than 33% of our loss in recruiting momentum is attributable to The Eyes fiasco, and chatter about racial inequality coming from the locker room.
(Sell) Momentum in recruiting was dead before June. I don't buy that at all.[/QUOTE]

No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...

... Every time I see a Tweet about Alabama football, it feels like a taunt towards Texas football.


... Nick Saban has never been more relatable.


... Of course, hours after I heard Mario Cristoboa's name mentioned to me by Anwar on Saturday night, his team gives up 22 fourth-quarter points to Oregon State in a loss. That was chef's kiss perfect, right?

... That A&M/LSU game set football back 100 years, but Isaiah Spiller can flat out ball. He was worth hanging in that game to watch when nothing else really was.

... Damn the injury gods for taking out Michael Penix Jr. on Saturday with the Wisconsin game looming this week. That was uncalled for.

... So, this is why Derek Mason just lost his job ...


... Fantasy football can kiss my grits.

... I enjoyed not having to watch Dallas on Sunday.

... Is Ryan Tannehill the best pro quarterback that either Texas or Texas A&M has produced this century?

... We're likely going to get Baker Mayfield in a playoff game in six of seven weeks ....

... The Broncos really started a practice squad wide receiver at quarterback this week and I literally started him in fantasy as a desperate Hail Mary attempt. We both got what we deserved.

... Premier League thoughts: Liverpool would win this league by 30 points if it was anywhere close to being healthy. It's just a matter of whether the Reds can survive the race at this point. Nice win by United. It keeps Ole around for a little while longer, which means that everyone was a winner. Arsenal fans, you sure you got the right dude?

No. 9 - The List: Maradona among the all-time greats ...

Full transparency: Up until this week, I've been in the "Messi is the Goat" camp when talking about the greatest soccer players of all-time.

Yet, the passing of Diego Maradona this week has made me reconsider my thoughts.

Then I saw this video, all from a single World Cup and I've re-ranked my list.


10. Eusebio
9. George Best
8. Zinedine Zidane
7. Franz Beckenbauer
6. Cristiano Ronaldo
5. Ronaldo
4. Johan Cruyff
3. Pele
2. Lionel Messi
1. Diego Maradona

No.10 - And finally ...

I want Snoop calling Monday Night Football. Can we please make this happen?

Also, I'll watch former NBA players fight Youtube stars every week if you put it in front of me and Snoop is on the call.

[/QUOTE]
 
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I don’t think anything saves Herman, but the fact that there isn’t a viable option after Urban is a major problem. You don’t get Urban you are going to commit 5-6 years and $30m plus to another hope and prayer hire. There isn’t even a CTH type guy to go get right now.
 
I don’t think anything saves Herman, but the fact that there isn’t a viable option after Urban is a major problem. You don’t get Urban you are going to commit 5-6 years and $30m plus to another hope and prayer hire. There isn’t even a CTH type guy to go get right now.
Cristobal is better than Herman. Fickell is probably on Hermans level. Stoops needs a call if Urban says no.
 
This all makes me nervous. Sure, All in on UM, but still feels a little like a pipe dream to me as boards like this seem to be only ones really making it sound possible.

so if no UM, and you say Cristibol or Matt Campbell aren’t splashy enough hires and 95 pct of fans are disappointed if not UM than what?

who are these splashier back up hires that are mentioned?
 
This all makes me nervous. Sure, All in on UM, but still feels a little like a pipe dream to me as boards like this seem to be only ones really making it sound possible.

so if no UM, and you say Cristibol or Matt Campbell aren’t splashy enough hires and 95 pct of fans are disappointed if not UM than what?

who are these splashier back up hires that are mentioned?

short of Urban, Saban, and Dabo I will be disappointed. I know two of those names aren’t realistic so it’s Urban or bust.
 
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If he's not sure he wants to coach, why would he even want a 10 year contract? There is no way he's here 10 years but it makes for good PR.
 
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