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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (A special Memorial Day edition...)

Ketch, have you found any substance behind the quiet confidence for the football team?

I know it was something you polled the OB staff about during one of the recent podcasts and I'm curious to find out if there's anything more to it.
Of course, but I think that exists every off-season.
 
Of course, but I think that exists every off-season.
Do tell.

I know for the most part OB has taken the "we suck until we don't" attitude, however some are still interested in any positives the coaching staff may have.
 
No. 6 - For the record...

These are my top 10 all-time NBA players.

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James
3. Magic Johnson
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. Wilt Chamberlin
6. Shaquille O’Neal
7. Tim Duncan
8. Kobe Bryant
9. Larry Bird
10. Hakeem Olajuwon
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I don't understand why Bill Russell isn't on the list. Even at the top of the list. If it's about championships...
 

Let's talk about Tyler Johnson, the Conroe Oak Ridge offensive lineman who committed to the Longhorns over the weekend.

I'm a big, big fan.

When I moved Johnson into the top 10 of the Lone Star Recruiting rankings earlier in the spring, the athletic dancing bear hadn't quite caught fire as a prospect from a recruiting rankings standpoint, but it was obvious to the naked eye when reviewing his film that this was a kid that would emerge as a high-level national prospect.

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Four months later, he's a national top-75 prospect and committed to the Longhorns. Eventually, I believe he'll be rated as a high-four star prospect, which would match the traditional ranking that goes along with being on the cusp of the top 70. It might seem like an insignificant detail, but there's actually a stark difference between the quality of a top 75, high four-star prospect and the tier below it (mid-four-stars), which typically extends to the national top 150 or so.

The difference? Well, when it comes to projecting as an NFL drafted player, those in the top 75 (and ranked as high-four stars or higher) typically emerge as impact linemen worthy of serious attention from NFL teams at twice the rate as the next tier below them.

At the most basic level possible, it's the difference between 2:1 odds of eventually being drafted by an NFL team and 4:1 or 5:1 odds.

Therefore, while there's a lot of work to be done in the next four or five years of development for Johnson, he's a piece of clay that will arrive on the 40 Acres with an upside that's different from most.

Since the beginning of the decade, the Longhorns have signed only five such offensive line prospects: Trey Hopkins (2010 - No. 64 overall), Kennedy Estelle (2013 - No. 67 overall), Kent Perkins (2014 - No. 41 overall), Darius James (2014 - No. 65 overall) and Patrick Hudson (2016 - No. 61 overall).

Of that group, Hopkins was a solid college player, who emerged as a starter for the Cincinnati Bengals, but the other players created mixed (mostly poor) results. Perkins was merely an average college player, but has also emerged as an NFL player with the same Bengals squad as Hopkins, while Estelle and James flamed out of the program before they could make a real positive impact. Meanwhile, it's too early to properly judge Hudson, who was injured last season right at the moment when he seemed to be coming on.

I'd contend that the Longhorns are due to hit on one of these elite-level prospects, since you'd probably have to go back to Tony Hills in 2003 to find an elite offensive line prospect that truly lived up to the massive expectations that come with being such a highly-regarded prospect.

No. 2 - Some softball coaching scuttlebutt ...

There's been some discussion that the Longhorns could replace former coach Connie Clark with a hire from within, with assistant Tripp McKay listed as the primary possibility.

In asking around this weekend, I'm not sure I made any real headway in locking down the direction Chris Del Conte will go with this hire, but I will keep digging.

I have to be honest, I don't know much about the women's softball coaching market. I don't really have a smart recommendation because ... wait for it ... I'm not qualified to make one.

I just wonder how everyone might feel about making a hire from within?

No. 3 - You could see it coming a mile away ...

I think the best thing that could happen to the Texas Longhorn baseball team is that there was actually a Big 12 Baseball Tournament for it to flame out in before the start of the NCAA Tournament.

In retrospect, it was impossible to think that there wouldn't be a bit of a hangover following a pretty magical weekend, which occurred only a few days before the start of the Tournament.

A more experienced winner probably would have handled the situation better, but Texas baseball is no longer an experienced winner. That mental strength will need to be rebuilt and the events from this weekend will be part of the lesson that will be learned.

For now, this team needs to recharge its batteries, shake off the results from the Tournament and prepare itself for the true second season.

No. 4 – Buy or Sell …
BUY-SELL.gif


BUY or SELL: The quarterback play will have more to do with the success or failure of the offense this year than Coach Beck's play calling?

(Buy) Obviously, there's some crossover between these two issues, but good quarterback play can mask poor play-calling better than great play-calling can mask poor quarterback play.

BUY or SELL: As of today 5-27-2018, you feel Texas will finish with a top-10 class in recruiting? I know this question has been worn out and the landscape continuously changes.

(Buy) Last year, Florida State was the No. 10 team in the national rankings, finishing with one five-star, 15 four-stars and an average star ranking of 3.76. Texas currently has eight commitments, with five currently rated as four stars. So, it comes down to whether you believe the coaches will finish with another 11-12 four-stars, which I believe they will. It might be close, though.

BUY or SELL: Chris Del Conte will be critiquing the offensive performance this year. If the offense still stutters by mid season he’ll force Herman to change things up.

(Sell) I don't believe that at all.

BUY or SELL: A team can have too many quarterbacks, defensive backs and wide receivers on campus and in the pipeline?

(Sell) There's not a position on the field you can have too many of. The entire purpose of elite recruiting, year-in and year-out, is so that you always have volume.

BUY or SELL: Texas beats Maryland on Sept. 1, destroys Tulsa on Sept. 8, and then beats USC convincingly in Austin on Sept. 15.

(Sell) I could see beats Maryland, beats Tulsa and gets by USC, which I would imagine would be good enough.

BUY or SELL: Despite winning its first three games of the year, Texas still hasn't settled on a starting quarterback.

(Buy) I'm not buying a lot of stock in the Texas offense right now.

BUY or SELL: The Longhorn men will play for a national championship in one of the big three sports in the next five years.

(Sell) I still can't buy that. Hope like hell I change it to a buy soon.

BUY or SELL: Longhorns win a national championship -- any sport -- before you spend $100 (your own money) at a strip club again!

(Buy) Eddie Reese will win another national title before I go back to a strip club ... I think.

BUY or SELL: It was not an accident that Chris Plonsky was not mentioned or quoted in the press release regarding the resignation of Connie Clark?

(Buy) There are no accidents.

BUY or SELL: You cheat by using the Buy or Sell questions to help you come up with a theme for your 10TFTW column, then pick from the remaining B/S questions that are okay.

(Sell) I "cheat" occasionally, but usually I take notes on what I want to write about during the week and by the time I get to the weekend, I'm pretty good with topics. It probably happens once a month or so where I'll steal an idea or concept for an entire section.

BUY or SELL: Sergio Ramos is a dirty player and accomplished what he set out to do to Mo Salah?

(Sell) Ramos is a dirty player and I think he absolutely meant to give Salah some rough treatment with his intentional efforts to hold Salah's arm as they went to the ground in the Champions League final, but I don't think anyone could have guessed that it would cause the damage that it did.

BUY or SELL: If the Eagles, the Beatles, and the Beach Boys held a winner-take-all poker game, the Eagles would win?

(Buy) As a band, the Eagles were some card-playing deviants and Glenn Fry was a card-shark among his group.

No. 5 - Appreciate the greatness in front of you...






No. 6 - For the record...

These are my top 10 all-time NBA players.

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James
3. Magic Johnson
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. Wilt Chamberlin
6. Shaquille O’Neal
7. Tim Duncan
8. Kobe Bryant
9. Larry Bird
10. Hakeem Olajuwon

No. 7 - Predictions, predictions, predictions...

a. Kevin Durant plays his best game of the series in game seven of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night.

b. James Harden plays an even better game - 38 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

c. Eric Gordon has a bigger impact tonight than either of the Splash Brothers.

d. Rockets win 115-110.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... It goes without saying that LeBron James finding a way to win a game seven on the road with Jeff Green and J.R. Smith in the starting line-up goes down as one of the great achievements of his career. The Cavs will get smashed in the finals, but winning on the road in game seven is a rare deal.

... Jayson Tatum is going to be a bad dude for a very long time in the NBA. Imagine him in Philly right now instead of Markelle Fultz ...

... The Celtics have some interesting personnel decisions to make in the next couple of off-seasons.

... After a five-hit game two days ago, this Mike Trout stat is goofy:


... Headline on ESPN.com that kind of scared me: "There's no question Cowboys are Dak Prescott's team now"

... Josh Freeman retired from the CFL this weekend. Who knew?

... Like Texas fans following the 2010 national championship game, I'm going to forever wonder "what if" when it comes down to this weekend's Champions League final. Liverpool was the better team in the first 25 minutes of the game - creating chances and making Real Madrid uncomfortable ... and then everything changed when Mo Salah had to leave the field with injury. As it is, Real won the game on a wonder goal and two keeper mistakes. It's a bit frustrating that Liverpool didn't really make Real Madrid beat them. The Liverpool back four was outstanding, Ronaldo was rendered a non-factor and it was basically a push in the midfield. The difference was Gareth Bale, Loris Karius and the Salah injury.
tenor.gif


No.9 - This will give you some perspective...



No. 10 – And Finally …

To every single man and woman that has ever given the ultimate sacrifice, and the families that were forced to live with that sacrifice ...

From the bottom of my heart ...

Thank you. We might be a dysfunctional family right now, but you are never ... ever ... forgotten.

Not today. Not yesterday. Not tomorrow. Not ever.

You represent the best of us.

DeS5ZaqU0AUm9ie.jpg:large
You never answered my question on Tyler Johnson day before yesterday in the "Instant Analysis" thread when I tagged you and asked about how you view him given your recent comments about 4 star OL from TX being massively underwhelming. This will do!
 
Not sure what you are asking? Source for the data?
Your assertion about the success rate of internal v external CEOs. I'm not arguing with you, just questioning whether that's based on research and data. There are some studies that suggest otherwise; moreover, there is
suggestion that much of the data is skewed by failing to take into account
the condition of companies that have turned to an outsider for leadership,
as opposed to healthy companies that simply promote an insider who
perpetuates the success s/he has inherited.
 
Its ridiculous to leave Russell out of your top 10. PER is probably the worst stat to evaluate Russell, considering offensive rebounds, blocks, and steals were not even recorded statistically until 1973. Giving Russell credit for his full rebounding and defensive impact likely would adjust his true PER more than any other player.

My criteria for the top 10... first I start with the top 8, who are the only 8 players to ever win multiple MVP awards, multiple finals MVP awards, and multiple NBA championships: Jordan, Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Duncan, Magic, Bird, and LeBron. Being the best player in the league multiple seasons and being the best player on multiple championship teams is what separates the greatest 8 of all time from the not quite as good like Kobe, Shaq, West, Oscar, and Hakeem.

Jordan and LeBron are the only two with a case for #1, and #1 is still in play for LeBron even if he isnt there yet.

Your argument that Russell wouldnt be great in any era breaks down when Russell always beat Wilt in the playoffs and you think Wilt could be great in any era.
I like Russell but Wilt out scored, out rebounded and had more assists than Russell in their matchups.
Russell had a lot better supporting cast than Wilt as well.
 
@Ketchum

Ive been watching soccer since I was a kid living abroad, my first memory being the 1978 World Cup, 30 years ago. While Sérgio Ramos clearly has a history of dirty play, this photo below makes me think twice about what happened this past weekend. Any great defensive player getting arm-hooked far away enough from their net, is going to pull right back, in order to protect themselves while going down. In this particular case, in my opinion, he’s not to blame for Salah’s injury.
 
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i know a lot of Longhorns don't give a shit about softball but OU is going for a 3rd straight national title in softball & our program barely makes NCAA playoffs that is unacceptable for any Longhorns.
If we settle for just promoting within just tells me our AD doesn't care that we are way behind OU Baylor & Aggie in softball.
 
Do tell.

I know for the most part OB has taken the "we suck until we don't" attitude, however some are still interested in any positives the coaching staff may have.
I think that stuff has been reported. Herman seems very optimistic.
 
I don't understand why Bill Russell isn't on the list. Even at the top of the list. If it's about championships...
I think that's too simplistic of a way of looking at the discussion.

He was a player with more limitations than any other all-time great player. He wouldn't be special today. Every other guy on that list would be.
 
You never answered my question on Tyler Johnson day before yesterday in the "Instant Analysis" thread when I tagged you and asked about how you view him given your recent comments about 4 star OL from TX being massively underwhelming. This will do!
I'm a big fan of Johnson and view him as a national top 75 type kid. I'm less worried about the top national 75 kids than I am about the kids ranked 100-500.
 
I like Russell but Wilt out scored, out rebounded and had more assists than Russell in their matchups.
Russell had a lot better supporting cast than Wilt as well.
Russell basically played with the 1960s Green Bay Packers... everyone made the HOF.
 
@Ketchum

Ive been watching soccer since I was a kid living abroad, my first memory being the 1978 World Cup, 30 years ago. While Sérgio Ramos clearly has a history of dirty play, this photo below makes me think twice about what happened this past weekend. Any great defensive player getting arm-hooked far away enough from their net, is going to pull right back, in order to protect themselves while going down. In this particular case, in my opinion, he’s not to blame for Salah’s injury.
Agree to disagree. He knew what he was doing.
 
I'm a big fan of Johnson and view him as a national top 75 type kid. I'm less worried about the top national 75 kids than I am about the kids ranked 100-500.
Yes, it's clear that you view Tyler differently than the 4 star TX OL you talked about in your post on the subject. I'm so f'ing ready for one of these guys (or 5 of them in a 2 year period) to develop at TX. TJ looks different to me than others. He's a monster. Hopefully TX coaching molds this ball of clay.
 
Yes, it's clear that you view Tyler differently than the 4 star TX OL you talked about in your post on the subject. I'm so f'ing ready for one of these guys (or 5 of them in a 2 year period) to develop at TX. TJ looks different to me than others. He's a monster. Hopefully TX coaching molds this ball of clay.
If you eliminate the players that went to Texas from the discussion, the five-star and high four-star linemen from Texas have performed much, much closer to national norms than the mid four stars and the low four stars.
 
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If you eliminate the players that went to Texas from the discussion, the five-star and high four-star linemen from Texas have performed much, much closer to national norms than the mid four stars and the low four stars.
All of that said, I watched Tyler's film before he committed and my mouth just dropped.
 
Internal hire for softball is weird but we don’t really care. Trust cdc I guess.

Spot on your last comment.

I feel the six softball fans on OB will lose their sh*t if we don't pay a million dollars/yr for an established coach.

Yes I hear you and if you should find five more you will have to take one of your shoes off to count to that sum ...
 
No. 3 - You could see it coming a mile away ...

I think the best thing that could happen to the Texas Longhorn baseball team is that there was actually a Big 12 Baseball Tournament for it to flame out in before the start of the NCAA Tournament.

I hope you're right because I see no redeeming quality from the team the Longhorns trotted out in OKC last week. No pride, no leadership, no fight and a lotta quit.

Just for an unscientific exercise, let's see how Baylor fares in the Stanford Regional after their strong performance in the Big 12 Tournament. Maybe they will have that "competitive hangover"? Maybe not.
 
I hope you're right because I see no redeeming quality from the team the Longhorns trotted out in OKC last week. No pride, no leadership, no fight and a lotta quit.

Just for an unscientific exercise, let's see how Baylor fares in the Stanford Regional after their strong performance in the Big 12 Tournament. Maybe they will have that "competitive hangover"? Maybe not.
No redeeming quality, except for that stuff that it did in the previous weeks?
 
Your assertion about the success rate of internal v external CEOs. I'm not arguing with you, just questioning whether that's based on research and data. There are some studies that suggest otherwise; moreover, there is
suggestion that much of the data is skewed by failing to take into account
the condition of companies that have turned to an outsider for leadership,
as opposed to healthy companies that simply promote an insider who
perpetuates the success s/he has inherited.

I would be interested in any research that you have on that. Yes, most companies go to the outside, as it is the perception that the "larger than life" leader, riding in on the white horse and making sweeping changes is what is needed. These types of leaders DO make a difference. You CAN drive temporary results with massive layoffs, cutting of R&D and investment budgets and focus on cost, cost, cost. But, these types of improvements are usually just temporary, and serve the company to prepare it for sale of divestiture. There are lots and lots of these types of examples, so this is what is in the minds of most on the issue.

There are dozens of books on the subject, but most point back to the research done by Jim Collins. You can read it in his iconic book, "Good To Great". It is a great read. It sold over 4 million copies and is considered one of the cornerstones of business/organizational research. It was based on a 5 year research study to determine what were the common characteristics of companies that had an inflection after years of stagnation, and then went through a sustained period (15 years of more) of performance that beat the stock market by 3.5 x or more. The first step in the research was in picking the companies to study, along with comparison companies (those that had un-sustained improvement).

One of the characteristics they found was what they labeled (for want of a better term), "Level 5" leadership. Collins actually started out blocking his research team from looking at leadership, as he compares leadership to God, in that it is the default rational for everything in business. Just like religion held back scientific progress for centuries (the sun come up and goes down because of God), everything in business was attributed to leadership. If the company does well, it was because of good leadership. If the company does poorly, it was because of leadership,... Anyway, the research inescapably uncovered that these "Great" companies all had what they called "Level 5" leaders.

Level 4 leaders are guys like Iaccoca, Trump, etc. that have huge egos and are primarily focused on themselves. Sustained great performance NEVER had this type of leader at the helm.

Based on Level 5 leader attributes, as well as other characteristics the Great companies had, I am 99.9% certain that both Saban and DKR were Level 5 leaders.

Anyway, download the book on Audible and listen to it while you are otherwise wasting your life sitting in traffic in your car. I promise you will be glad you did.
 
No redeeming quality, except for that stuff that it did in the previous weeks?

Geoff, of course I'll agree with you on that. Their sweep of TCU, coupled with OSU's collapse was great drama. I'm such an old that I can remember some of Augie's teams and his fiery "influence" to encourage them not to lose their momentum going into the post season. I assume you were in Austin last week but I was at the Brick and I had a great view of our dugout. We were totally okay with losing to an 8 seed (while leaving the tying run on 3rd) and then losing to our biggest Big 12 rival. Leaving OKC as the first team out- less that 24 hours after our Game 1 opening pitch, is , to me, a huge concern that we're trying to gloss over. I'm hoping my concern is unfounded, but today it's real to me.
 
I am mostly OK with the top 10 but while Shaq was dominant, he was no more than a slam dunk and blocked shot phenom. Hakeem and Tim Duncan had complete games. As several have pointed out, Hakeem owned Shaq in their head to head matchups. Shaq even acknowledged more than once that Hakeem had his number.
 
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