Go ahead, folks, write down today's date.
I'm about to do the one thing Arthur Fonzarelli could never do. I'm about to admit I've been w-r-r-r-r-r-r-r- *deep breath* r-r-r-o-n-g about something.
A little more than two years ago in this very column, I wrote about what seemed like an out of control attrition problem within the program that Tom Herman had inherited from Charlie Strong.
From 2010-2016, the Longhorns had lost 70 of the 157 players they had signed through that window to attrition, which meant that nearly one out of every two players that signed with the Texas at that time was gone from the program. The program consistently was turning over 10+ players per year for whatever reasons, which was a big reason it seemed like the Longhorns were annually putting forth watered down senior classes that constantly left the top of the depth chart devoid of top players and the leadership required to pick itself off the ground.
In fact, I wrote at the time: "Given that the Texas program has averaged nearly double-digit numbers in attrition each year since 2005, we know that attrition is going to occur and that not all of it is bad. Yet, moving forward, Herman must control the outgoing numbers so that the program can establish a firmer foundation. Without it, the problems Herman will deal with this season won't completely go away."
Two-plus years later, Herman has the program coming off a win over Georgia and headed into the 2019 season as a top-10 team.
The attrition?
It hasn't slowed him down at all, even if 35 players have left the program over the last three calendar cycles of transfers. At some point, the incredible high-volume of turnover has to be accepted as the way and not merely an exception.
It doesn't matter who the coach is, whether we're talking about Mack Brown, Charlie Strong or Tom Herman, attrition in the Texas program occurs at double-digit levels on an annual basis. In fact, if you look at nearly two decades worth of data from 2002-2019, the average number of transfers per year does beak double digits levels.
In the best of times and in the worst of times, high turnover takes place.
The big takeaway from this is that even with years like the next two recruiting cycles, which currently has the Longhorns with 12 scholarship seniors (including Parker Braun) and 14 scholarship juniors serving as the official departing numbers, it shouldn't keep the Longhorns from being able to take large classes in each of the next two recruiting cycles because of the attrition that will almost certainly take place.
You can't count on it ... except you can. Deep down, you know that the numbers will be there because the numbers always there.
With the scholarship number for the Longhorns sitting at 79 going into the season, Texas can take 18 kids in the 2020 class without even having to count on the attrition to get to 85, which means that if the Longhorns hit their average levels of attrition, they'll have more than enough numbers to allow for a 25-man class. While there is discussion of the 2021 class having fewer available scholarships, it's not hard to see where normal levels of attrition in the next two years will leave the program able to take 25-man classes and still be able to get under the 85-man scholarship limit.
I'm still not convinced that averaging 10+ departures per year is still optimal, but for the moment my assertions have been ripped apart by last season's performance and the projections for 2020-2021.
So, I'm just going to admit I was wrong and shut up about it all.
See ... it can happen.
No. 2 - Taking a look at the attrition numbers from the last six cycles:
2014 (8/15/13-8/14/14)
(13) Aaron Benson (transfer), Joe Bergeron (transfer), Josh Cochran (injuries), Chevoski Collins (dismissed), Deoundrei Davis (transfer), Bryant Jackson (medical), Montrell Meander (dismissed), Chet Moss (dismissed), Jalen Overstreet (dismissed), Kendall Sanders (dismissed), Leroy Scott (dismissed), Kevin Shorter (injuries) and Kendall Thompson (injuries)
2015 (8/15/14-8/14/15)
(11) David Ash (injuries), Duke Catalon (transfer), Cecil Cherry (transfer), Kennedy Estelle (dismissed), Rami Hammad (transfer), Cameron Hampton (transfer), Desmond Harrison (dismissed), Darius James (transfer), M.J. McFarland (transfer), Miles Onyegbule (injuries) and Curtis Riser (transfer)
2016 (8/15/15-8/14/16)
(8) Adrian Colbert (transfer), Bryson Echols (transfer), DeAndre McNeal (transfer), Ryan Newsome (transfer), Derick Roberson (transfer), Jermaine Roberts (transfer), Jake Raulerson (transfer) and Dalton Santos (transfer)
2017 (8/15/16-8/14/17)
(11) Peyton Aucoin (transfer), Roderick Bernard (retired), Jordan Elliott (transfer), Erick Fowler (transfer), Erik Huhn (transfer), Kai Locksley (transfer), Buck Major (retired), Matthew Merrick (retired/transferred), Jake Oliver (graduated), Marcel Southall (transfer) and Blake Whiteley (transfer)
2018 (8/15/17-8/14/18)
(11) John Bonney (graduate transfer), Eric Cuffee (transfer), Chris Daniels (transfer), Jean Delance (transfer), Edwin Freeman (graduate transfer), Garrett Gray (retired), Mikey Grandy (concussions), Reggie Hemphill-Mapps (transfer), Jake McMillon (retired), Garrett Thomas (retired) and Chris Warren (transfer)
2019 (8/15/18-8/14/19)
(13) DeMarco Boyd (off-field), Shane Buechele (graduate transfer), Toneil Carter (transfer), Davion Curtis (transfer), Andrew Fitzgerald (retired), Tristian Houston (transfer), Patrick Hudson (health), Bru McCoy (transfer), Kyle Porter (transfer), Cameron Rising (transfer), Joshua Rowland (graduate transfer), Cameron Townsend (transfer) and Mike Williams (transfer)
For those keeping score at home, the scholarship numbers by class looks like this at the moment:
Senior: 12
Juniors: 14
Sophomores: 20
Redshirt freshmen: 12
True Freshman: 21
Total scholarship players: 79
No. 3 - A Combined 2020/2021/2022 Lone Star Recruiting Top 25 ...
Upon the release of this week's new 2021 Lone Star Recruiting Top 100, several Orangebloods members requested a combined LSR list that includes all prospects in all classes.
Your wish is my command.
1. (2021) Tommy Brockermeyer - OT - Fort Worth All Saints
2. (2020) Zach Evans - RB - North Shore
3. (2020) Demond Demas - Ath - Tomball (Committed to Texas A&M)
4. (2021) Savion Byrd - OL - Duncanville
5. (2021) Camar Wheaton - RB - Garland Lakeview Centennial
6. (2020) Hudson Card - QB - Lake Travis (Committed to Texas)
7. (2020) Vernon Broughton - DL - Houston Cy Ridge (Committed to Texas)
8. (2022) Bear Alexander - DT - Dallas Skyline
9. (2021) Preston Stone - QB - Dallas Parish Episcopal
10. (2021) Tunmise Adeleye - DL - Katy Tompkins
11. (2021) Ja'Tavion Sanders - DE - Denton Ryan
12. (2021) Jalen Milroe - QB - Katy Tompkins (Committed to Texas)
13. (2022) Kam Dewberry - OL - Atascocita
14. (2020) Jase McClellan - RB - Aledo (Committed to Oklahoma)
15. (2020) Drew Sanders - Ath - Denton Ryan (Committed to Alabama)
16. (2021) Landon Jackson - DE - Texarkana Pleasant Grove
17. (2020) Troy Omeire - WR - Fort Bend Austin (Committed to Texas A&M)
18. (2021) Bryce Foster - OL - Katy Taylor
19. (2020) Quentin Johnston - WR - Temple
20. (2020) Haynes King - QB - Longview (Committed to Texas A&M)
21. (2020) Ja' Quinden Jackson - QB - Duncanville (Committed to Texas)
22. (2021) Clayton Smith - LB - Texarkana Texas High
23. (2022) Bryce Anderson - Ath - Beaumont Westbrook
24.(2022) Caleb Burton - WR - Del Valle
25. (2020) R.J. Mickens - CB - Southlake Carroll (Committed to Clemson)
No. 4 - On the subject of 2021 quarterbacks from the state of Texas ...
Here's a fact that might surprise you ... despite the fact that the state of Texas is churning out Heisman-winning quarterbacks at what appears to be an annual or semi-annual basis, the Lone Star State hasn’t actually produced a Rivals.com five-star high school prospect since ...
Wait for it ...
Wait for it ...
Garrett Gilbert and Russell Shepard in 2009.
It's only happened six times in the history of the Rivals rankings, with Vince Young, Rhett Bomar, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Mallett, Gilbert and Shepard representing the six. While we can quibble over the collegiate and pro success that each has had during his career, what cannot be denied is that all six earned NFL paychecks at some point. Only Bomar failed to play in an actual NFL game.
Hell, in the history of the Rivals rankings, only five other quarterbacks have been 6.0 high-four stars: Robbie Reid (2004), Stephen McGee (2004), Jevan Snead (2006), Andrew Luck (2008) and Tyrik Rollison (2009).
Again, none since 2009.
As things currently stand in the 2021 recruiting rankings, Rivals has Dallas Parish Episcopal quarterback Preston Stone as the nation's No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback in his class and the No. 20 overall prospect in 2021, while 247 has him ranked as the nation's No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback in his class and the No. 17 overall prospect in the country in his class.
Basically, everyone agrees that he's a top 20 prospect and the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the country, yet the two in-state big dogs (Texas and Texas A&M) didn't wait for him. Texas A&M snapped up the commitment of Denton Guyer's Eli Stowers, while the Longhorns landed Katy Tompkins supernova Jalen Milroe to lead their 2021 recruiting class.
In the case of the Longhorns, when Tom Herman and Co. accepted Milroe's commitment, they did so with the knowledge that they were probably the betting favorite for Stone, who has visited the 40 Acres on numerous occasions. If the Longhorns had wanted to prioritize Stone, almost everyone would have established them as the favorite to land him. Yet, they passed.
Surprisingly, Oklahoma hasn't offered, either.
I don't write this section is some sort of criticism of the kid (far from it), it's just an unusual situation from my standpoint. Frankly, it's wildly unprecedented. As someone that has him ranked as a top-5 prospect in the state for 2021, I'll be watching his recruitment moving forward with a keen eye.
If this is a guy that ends up being a five-star player and the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the nation when National Signing Day rolls around for his recruiting class in about 17 months, I get the sense we're all going to be very curious to see how the careers of all the players involved play out.
No. 5 - Tweet of the Weekend
Well done, Mr. Suchomel, well done. It was good to see you have a little fun on a Friday night, while waiting for the Juan Davis news hit.
No. 6 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I'm not saying no, I'm just saying I'm not quite ready to go there for the sake of going there. I'd rather know than guess.
(Buy) Yeah, that's a big buy on all of it. I'll throw Jase McClellan in the running backs discussion as well.
(Buy) By work, I mean they'll continue to keep in touch and make sure that they have a good relationship in the event that their situation changes.
(Buy) I'm counting on exactly that kind of increase with my current prediction .
(Sell) No, it doesn't upon first glance. However, I suppose in contrast to the other 51 Friday nights in a year, it probably was kind of wild since any commit on a Friday night is fairly rare.
(Buy) Oh yeah, they'll kick someone's rear end in the conference by at least that much.
(Sell) That might be about 25 balls more than I'm willing to concede.
(Buy) Texas is going to beat LSU.
(Buy) That's not going to excite a lot of people, but in a five-year window, that's probably pretty realistic. You'll excuse me now if I step out of the way of any objects that might get thrown at me.
No. 7 - From the Department of "You Don't See This Every Day" ...
I'd guess that this is happened before, but off the top of my head I can't ever remember a player just hoping to scratch out a roster spot after being an injured un-drafted rookie free agent running back just 12 months ago getting cut because he showed up top training camp out of shape.
Good grief.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Yahoo automatically renewed my fantasy football league this weekend without me even touching it. Oh boy, I've got work to do.
... I just don't care when Zeke Elliott shows up for camp. It's July.
... Seeing Russell Westbrook in a Rockets jersey felt much weirder than seeing Kevin Durant in a Warriors jersey. Or even a Nets jersey.
... This is one hell of a play from a shortstop in the hole.
... The Phillies might not be a very good baseball team, but no one had more swag in Major League Baseball this weekend.
... Brooks Koepka won a tournament this weekend and it wasn't a major. Go figure.
... I am slightly concerned that Liverpool looks like it is very much suffering from a Champions League hangover so far this pre-season. I'm not worried, just slightly concerned.
... Real Madrid looks like they are going to be all kinds of back page fun this season. Gareth Bale won't be a distraction. No way.
... I watched the LAFC/Atlanta MLS game on Friday night and kind of enjoyed it. Don't judge me.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Tarantino flicks ...
With the opening of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood this weekend, Quentin Tarantino is drawing rave reviews for what is supposed to be one of his best movies yet.
Inspired by this article over at The Ringer, I've put together my Top 10 Tarantino scenes from over the years. For some reason, the article did a list without numeric ordering. I'm going to go where they didn't quite go.
(All of this is very not safe for work)
10. Pulp Fiction - The End Scene
I probably could have done a Top 10 list off of Pulp Fiction scenes alone. The bad mother wallet has inspired countless sports metaphors over the years from yours truly.
9. Inglorious Bastards - The Tavern Showdown
There are so many high points in this movie, but this World War II version of the Shootout at the OK Corral in a basement is near the top of the list.
8. Reservoir Dogs - The Diner Scene
It's a sin that this scene is this low because it's basically perfect.
7. Pulp Fiction - The Gold Watch
Christopher Walken gets the first of two mentions on this list.
6. Kill Bill Volume I- The Bride vs. The Crazy 88s
As far as I'm concerned, it might be the best fight scene of any movie ever created.
5. True Romance - The Sicilian
It's true that QT didn't direct this scene, but he did write it and it might just be the best scene in the careers of both Dennis Hopper and Christopher Walken, which is saying a hell of a lot.
4. Reservoir Dogs - The Ear
You could make a case for this being No. 1, given that it's truly the scene that introduced us to the messed up upside that every QT movie that followed might have.
3. Pulp Fiction - Mr. Wolfe
My second favorite Pulp Fiction scene
2. Pulp Fiction - Apartment Scene
No actor does a QT scene better than Samuel L. Jackson and this is the scene that introduced us to the Samuel L. Jackson that we all know today.
1. Inglorious Bastards - The Opening
There's never been anything quite like it. Easy selection as No. 1 for me.
No. 10 – And Finally ...
This weekend was the last weekend without football until February of next year.
We made it!
