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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Is this the 2nd best Texas offense of all-time?)

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
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While much of the focus in this week's match-up with Oklahoma State will focus on Mike Gundy's recent record vs. Texas, which includes a four-game winning streak in Austin that extends back to 2008, I wanted to take a 30,000-foot view of what Gundy has done since being named head coach in Stillwater back in 2005 when Les Miles left for LSU.

Gundy has always fascinated me because he's never been known as a head coach that loves recruiting, but he still finds a way to build nationally-ranked teams each year without the mega-blue chips. In fact, when his team comes to Austin on Saturday, he'll arrive with a mere 11 four-star prospects to his resume in recruiting over the course of the last five full recruiting cycles.

That's considerably fewer than the number of four and five star prospects (16) that Tom Herman signed in the 2019 recruiting class alone.

The friction that has existed in some corners of Stillwater with Gundy centers around the fact that if he just recruited a little better ... if he just cared a little more ... there's no telling what he could do on the field, but that's likely never going to happen. In fact, the Cowboys are trending in the wrong direction on the recruiting front, twice finishing 40th or worse in the last four years, something that had never happened in his first 10 full recruiting classes.

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So, just how much value is Oklahoma State getting for its investment in Gundy and is it possible that the Cowboys aren't getting enough return on their investment? Let's take a look at the last 10 seasons under Gundy and compare his results with his recruiting rankings to see if a clearer picture emerges.

2009

Season Record 9-4
Final Rankings: (No.25 AP)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2006): 22nd ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 28.5

2010

Season Record 11-1
Final Rankings: (No.10 AP/No.13)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2007): 30th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 30.8

2011

Season Record 12-1
Final Rankings: (No.3 AP)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2008): 26th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 30.3

2012

Season Record 8-5
Final Rankings: (NR)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2009): 36th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 31.8

2013

Season Record 10-3
Final Rankings: (No.17 AP)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2010): 31st ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 31.75

2014

Season Record 7-6
Final Rankings: (NR)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2011): 28th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 30.8

2015

Season Record 10-3
Final Rankings: (No.19)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2012): 32nd ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 33.3

2016

Season Record 10-3
Final Rankings: (No.11)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2013): 36th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 36.5

2017

Season Record 10-3
Final Rankings: (No.14)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2014): 27th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 36.5

2018

Season Record 7-6
Final Rankings: (NR)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2015): 38th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 38

2019

Season Record 3-0
Final Rankings: (NR)
Senior class Rival Recruiting Ranking (2016): 30th ranked class
Four Year Average Recruiting Ranking: 39

Biggest takeaways?

There's some interesting philosophical discussion to be had about the job that Gundy has done and continues to do in Stillwater.

On one hand, there's no question that he's the best head coach in the modern history of football at Oklahoma State and when you look at the data, he has a history of over-performing against his recruiting class rankings.

On the other hand, recruiting is in a half-decade decline and the Cowboys have finished unranked in three of the last seven seasons following the historic 2011 season and in none of those seven seasons have they failed to lose at least three games per season.

How you ultimately feel about the job he does each year probably comes down to what kind of upside Oklahoma State has as a program. If you believe that there's no reason that Oklahoma State shouldn't be competing for conference championships and that a more recruiting-focused plan would help the program get there, you probably aren't as impressed as you should be. If you believe that Oklahoma State is as good as it’s ever going to be and that he is maximizing the talent around him, you should be made aware of the fact that the Cowboys have routinely been a middle-of-The-Big12-pack recruiting machine, unable to consistently turn those ranked seasons into top-20 classes.

If Oklahoma State could consistently finish with the Big 12's third-best recruiting classes, a modest request given the circumstances of the competition, it's hard not to think the results would reflect that improvement. Tylan Wallace, Chuba Hubbard and Spencer Sanders were all four-star recruits and rank as the highest-rated recruits in the program. Landing five or six four-star prospects in an average year instead of a shade over two (over the last five recruiting classes) might be the difference between a 12-1 season instead of a 10-3 season.

Of course, you'll have to excuse Texas fans for bowing down to Gundy, who was once owned by Mack Brown, but eventually turned it around to the point that he owned Mack, Charlie and Tom over the last decade in a way that's pretty damn embarrassing for a program that almost never has fewer than five times the number of four- or five-star prospects on its roster.

The Cowboys might be able to do better, but you'll never convince anyone in Austin of that.

No. 2 - Hyperbole or not ...

One of the things that rolled around in my brain on Saturday night was the eventual resting place for this year's offense at the end of the year.

It's my opinion that the 2005 offense (led by Vince Young) is in its own stratosphere, while the second-best offense was probably the 2008 unit (led by Colt McCoy.) A glance at the Texas record book shows that the top four scoring offenses in school history are 2005 (50.2), 2008 (42.4), 1969 (41.4) and 1970 (41.2)

We're only one-fourth of the way through the regular season, but the 2019 Longhorns are currently averaging 43.7 points per game.

On top of that, the 2019 Longhorns currently have an offense that ranks first all-time in Texas history in passing yards per game, second in total yards per game (497.7), fourth all-time in yards per play (6.5) and second in pass completion percentage (72.8-percent).

There's a lot of football to be played, but appreciate what is happening in front of you because this is almost certainly a top 3 offense in the history of the program when it's completely healthy and operating on all cylinders.

No. 3 - The million dollar question for Saturday night ...

If it takes 30 points to win on Saturday, the Longhorns will likely roll.

If it takes 40 points to win on Saturday, the Longhorns will likely be in a coin-flip game.

I'm fairly certain that the Longhorns are going to put up 40 on the Cowboys, but I don't have the slightest clue what I should expect out of a Texas defense that could be without BJ Foster and Joseph Ossai. Losing Ossai to a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter of a five- or six-score game feels like a criminal mistake on the following day.

I believe the over/under for the game is currently 70 1/2.

Take the over, folks. It's going to be that kind of game.

No. 4 - If Ossai doesn't play against Oklahoma State ...

Who lines up next to Jeffery McCulloch when the Longhorns play in a scheme that puts two linebackers on the field?

Technically, redshirt freshman Byron Vaughns is Ossai's back-up at the B-backer spot, but Vaughns hasn't played a lot of football this season up until now.

The smart money would probably be on Mike linebackers Ayodele Adeoye and Juwan Mitchell rotating back and forth, as they seemed to do in the second half against Rice.

Regardless, as long as Ossai is out of action, the Longhorns really don't have anyone that can properly replace what he brings to the table as the team's best defensive playmaker this season.

No. 5 - Five players I'm still thinking of ...

Here's a look at five players from Saturday night that I'm still thinking about nearly 24 hours later.

QB: Sam Ehlinger: I know it was just Rice, but that was Ehlinger's first 200+ quarterback efficiency game rating of his career. You might as well call him Bruce Leroy because this kid has the glow.

OL Parker Braun: The importance of Braun along the offensive line was never more apparent than when Zach Shackelford went out of the game. No offense to Tope Imade, but the quality of this entire group changes considerably when the middle of the line loses one of its parts. No one even wants to think of what not having two of those parts would mean. No, he's not redshirting.

RB Roschon Johnson: Going into the game, Johnson's best rush of the season had been eight yards and I found myself wondering when the true breakout game was going to occur. Well, Johnson provided that answer in the first half on Saturday night when he broke the glass with 25-yard touchdown reception. Mix in a 59-yard performance on the ground and in my mind we're talking about a player that is suddenly competing for Keaontay Ingram's starting job.

LB Juwan Mitchell: Every time Mitchell takes the field, he makes an impression. That was certainly the case on Saturday when he led the team in tackles (5), despite limited reps. Of all the players in the program that might be making a modest contribution in September, but might be making a monster contribution in November, Mitchell might rank at the top of the list.

WR Jake Smith: He's even better than I thought and I thought he was really damn good.

No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Auburn
8. Wisconsin
9. Texas
10. Notre Dame

No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
BUY-SELL.gif


B/S: Texas rolls into the CCG with two losses max?
(Sell) This team could lose two games before December, especially if the injuries on defense prove to be more long-term than short-term.

B/S: Oklahoma St. will need to score at least 43 points to beat Texas.
(Buy) I think the winning team on Saturday hits 45.

B/S: We see some new tricks up Todd Orlando’s sleeves?
(Sell) What we’ve seen through three games is largely what I think we're going to get all season.

B/S: Tylan Wallace will start his Heisman campaign after playing our secondary
(Sell) He's not going to be a Heisman contender, but he might have 200 yards on Saturday.

B/S: There have been wide open opposing receivers in each game so far. This defense has some of the hallmarks of the one everyone made fun of for the Sooners last year.
(Buy) Pretty much.

B/S: Heroics and accomplishments aside, Rochon is a better running (not overall) QB than Vince
(Sell) I've never used this gif before, but there's a first time for everything.
source.gif


B/S: If we play our “A” game, only Clemson and Alabama could beat us.
(Sell) I suppose it depends on what the definition of A-game means, but this defense can be had by more than just two teams.

B/S: RoJo ends the season with more yards (rushing and receiving) than Ingram and Whittington.
(Sell) Ingram will end up with more total yards than Johnson, but it'll be closer than anyone could have imagined a month ago.

B/S: Sam returns for his senior season?
(Buy) I reserve the right to change my mind, though ...

B/S: You sometimes put too much emphasis on quarterback efficiency rating when comparing it to previous years because the game has changed to help the QB numbers in college football
(Sell) I go to great pains to include full context when discussing numbers. What I prefer about them is that they are fact-based and not emotional-based. Give me data over confirmation bias every day of the week.

B/S: You make the pick Boyce missed and take it to the house.
(Sell) I'm like Boyce in that I might have made that break, but I wouldn't have jumped that high and the ball would have never been caught.

B/S: OB staff will start calling @Anwar Richardson Kobe in team meetings.
(Sell) That's a wildly large assumption on your part that we don't already call him Kobe. Technically, we've been calling him Big Kobe.

No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
...


... Texas/Oklahoma in October might be the biggest offensive fireworks show in the history of the rivalry. Seriously.

... Trevor Lawrence is not better a better player than Sam Ehlinger at the moment.

... Joe Burrow stayed hot on Saturday, completing 21 of 24 passes for 373 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The 209.7 game rating from the Texas game is actually his worst passing efficiency rating of the year through three games.

... Florida has zero business being in the top 10 right now.

... There was never a moment on Sunday when I felt like the Dallas Cowboys were in any real danger against Washington. I suppose that says a lot about the state of both teams.

... Welcome to the NFL, Charles Omenihu. The Longhorns dearly miss you.


... Patrick Mahomes in the second quarter against the Raiders: 12 of 17 for 278 yards and four touchdowns.

... Sometimes a single Tweet can say a lot. My soccer weekend in a nutshell.


... Liverpool's Sadio Mane has played in 50 career Premier League games at Anfield and has never lost (40 wins and 10 draws).
EEbYPilW4AItiL4


No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Country Artists of All-Time ...



In honor of Ken Burns' new PBS series called "Country Music," I thought I would rank my personal Top 10 country artists of all time.

It's pretty much an impossible task, but I took on the task, anyway. Let the arguing commence.

10. Gary Stewart
9. Dolly Parton
8. Waylon Jennings
7. George Jones
6. George Strait
5. Patsy Cline
4. Willie Nelson
3. Johnny Cash
2. Merle Haggard
1. Hank Williams Sr.

No. 10 – And Finally ...

If you're going to come at the queen, you best not miss.
 
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I disagree that this defense is equal to ou defense from last year.
 
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Ketch, how much have you watched Spencer Sanders this season? I just don’t see the freshman going toe-to-to with us for four quarters. He’s not going to beat us with his arm. This will be his first really big stage and I think he’s good for a couple turnovers.
 
Top 10 country stars is virtually impossible but that's a great list. I might quibble with Gary Stewart and the omission of Loretta Lynn, Garth Brooks and Bob Wills but you can only squeeze 10 into the top 10...you could try for 50 and still leave out some all time greats.

Really looking forward to the special tonight and ongoing. Nobody covers a topic like Ken Burns
 
Ketch, how much have you watched Spencer Sanders this season? I just don’t see the freshman going toe-to-to with us for four quarters. He’s not going to beat us with his arm. This will be his first really big stage and I think he’s good for a couple turnovers.
I don't think this Texas defense is very good yet.
 
Top 10 country stars is virtually impossible but that's a great list. I might quibble with Gary Stewart and the omission of Loretta Lynn, Garth Brooks and Bob Wills but you can only squeeze 10 into the top 10...you could try for 50 and still leave out some all time greats.

Really looking forward to the special tonight and ongoing. Nobody covers a topic like Ken Burns
Agree with all of it. Gary has to make MY personal list. Almost included Keith Whitley.
 
Agree with all of it. Gary has to make MY personal list. Almost included Keith Whitley.
Yea, when I first read through your list, Kieth Whitley was the first omission that came to mind. I think he would be up near the top 3 of his career and life wasn’t cut short
 
Garth Brooks has to be on there. I’d also put Dwight Yoakum on there.

Edit: just noticed it’s your personal list. Makes sense. Love me some Gary Stewart.
 
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Agree with all of it. Gary has to make MY personal list. Almost included Keith Whitley.

wouldn't have disagreed with Whitley either..Rosanne Cash will always be on mine but KW belongs on any top of the top of the best lists.

if you want to listen to some surprisingly good country music efforts, listen to "One More Time" by Carly Simon, several of the Rolling Stones songs over the years(Brad Paisley calls them one of the top 5 country bands of all time)and early Elton John especially Tumbleweed Connection and the flip side of Goodbye Yellow Brick Road.
 
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Garth Brooks has to be on there. I’d also put Dwight Yoakum on there.

Edit: just noticed it’s your personal list. Makes sense. Love me some Gary Stewart.
Feel free to let me see your full top 10!
 
wouldn't have disagreed with Whitley either..Rosanne Cash will always be on mine but KW belongs on any top of the top of the best lists.

if you want to listen to some surprisingly good country music efforts, listen to "One More Time" by Carly Simon, several of the Rolling Stones songs over the years(Brad Paisley calls them one of the top 5 country bands of all time)and early Elton John especially Tumbleweed Connection and the flip side of Goodbye Yellow Brick Road.
Almost included Ray Charles.
 
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Feel free to let me see your full top 10!

Definitely tough list to make. Ask me again tomorrow and the list might be different. Had trouble leaving off Emmylou Harris.

George Strait
Willie Nelson
Merle Haggard
Guy Clark
Dwight Yoakum
Vince Gill
Garth Brooks
Waylon
George Jones
Johnny Cash
 
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