"No, the truth of the matter is that we've seen one okey-doke after another starting with the 2010 season and I've jumped on that hook, line and sinker enough times that I'm going to wait until I see that worm talking to a family member before I go for a bite again without caution.
“What I worry about with this team is that it's been sucked down into being average for so long that it truly doesn't know how to get out of it. It's a cycle that plagued the Longhorns from the mid-80s through the early portion of Mack Brown's tenure. Mediocrity has become muscle-memory around this program. Does it have the steel that a guy like Vince Young gave it to pull itself out of the Oklahoma domination 15 years ago? Is that who Sam is?
“Until I see a weekly level of anger and unbreakable resolution from the boys in burnt orange, you'll forgive me if I don't see 7-3 as unrealistic when it represents more than this program has regularly accomplished since Charlie Sheen was the highest-paid actor on television"
I wrote that six weeks ago. Oh, it feels like a lifetime ago at this point, but it was only four games, three likely "should've" losses, two definite losses and a school song crisis ago.
From my perspective, when you combined the question marks about this team in numerous personnel groupings, the never-seen-before virtual off-season in which a staff of seven new coaches were forced to work, the reality that this program lost four Big 12 games less than 12 months ago and the unpleasant truth that Tom Herman-led teams drop games every year to inferior teams on paper, nothing about this team potentially not making the Big 12 Championship game should register as a surprise.
Yet, the reaction from six weeks ago over was overwhelmingly on the side of me being searching for click-bait.
@longhorn73 "Someone is off his meds....Negative folks never change their stripes."
@Napaak "Lol so pessimistic"
@stingray10 "Jesus 7-3, that would really be fvcking terrible"
@qwanseeker "Barring unforeseen injuries or Covid issues, Texas will win the Big 12. Sam will WIN the Heisman. Texas will WIN the national championship."
Those were just a few of the comments in the first 20 replies of the column. It went on like that for 11 pages. Understand that I don't mean to call any of those posters out because a couple of them are really good posters and they were mostly in tune with the consensus of the Orangebloods universe.
I suppose my larger point is that when we look at where this team is situated heading into the midway point in the season, a lot of the team's issues were flashing as problem areas for the last nine months.
We knew the offensive line had some real concerns on the right side. We knew the defensive line lacked playmaking on the edge outside of Joseph Ossai. We knew the linebacker position hadn't been this much of a concern since John Mackovic was coaching. We knew this team struggled to cover and tackle for most of last season.
What this team had going for it was Sam Ehlinger, a sexy group of skill players on paper on offense and an improved coaching staff ... on paper.
When I first suggested seven wins was a possibility, some responded by saying things like, "That must mean you don't believe that Herman is going to make it."
Duh.
If there is a most damning thing about year four under Herman, it's that the program has obvious problem spots with roots than run deeper than the here and now.
* The offensive line is average at best and it's hard to see where and how that improvement changes into the 2021 season without a flood of grad transfers (and even that is an incredibly optimistic hope).
* The Texas defense currently has one playmaker in Joseph Ossai and that's basically it. For a defense that desperately needs more athleticism and playmaking off the edge, Chris Ash is currently leaning on one player to do it all and if he turns pro after this season, your guess is as good as mine as to who on the roster is remotely ready to replace 1/3 of his production.
* Outside of DeMarvion Overshown, who is developing nicely this season, I'm not sure there's another linebacker in the entire program that would play on a truly good defense. Not one.
Four years in and the foundation pieces of true championship teams (the offensive line and the front six/seven on defense) are in shambles if we're looking at them in terms of elite aspirations. All of the terrific skill position recruiting in the world won't get you beyond a bunch of 50-50 games in 2020 unless you can take control of games in between the hash marks in the trenches.
For all of the talk of Herman saving his job with a little six-game magic, it's just hard to see how that happens when every week is a coin-flip.
That's not negativity. That's reality. And we all should have seen it coming before the first game was played.
Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug ... until it isn't.
No. 2 - A quick snapshot of the final six games ...
Here's what my gut tells me about the final six weeks.
Vs. Baylor - Is this game going to get played this week? If so, this would seem to be the perfect opponent for the Longhorns because the Bears have played only twice this season and can't be in any kind of rhythm after dealing with program shutdowns in the last two weeks because of Covid. Win.
at Oklahoma State - This is a game Texas could win, but no one could believe this is a game it should win at this point. Loss.
vs. West Virginia - 50-50 game. Let's call heads. It IS heads. Win.
at Kansas - I know what you're thinking, but ... just for now. Win.
vs. Iowa State - Another coin flip. Let's call heads again. Oops, it landed on tails. Loss.
at Kansas State - KSU is +20 in wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU ... Loss.
That's 5-5 by my count and in order to get to six wins, the Longhorns will need to take three games from the trio of West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State when it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Texas could lose all three.
Ugh.
No. 3 - Three questions for Tom ...
Here are three questions that Tom Herman probably needs to be asked on Monday in his weekly press conference.
a. On October 8, Chris Del Conte met with you and other head coaches in other sports. Did he tell you in the meeting before the OU game that it was his expectation that your players would need to stand after games for the playing of The Eyes?
b. Was that the first time he had ever conveyed that expectation to you?
c. If he did tell you that before the Oklahoma game, why didn't you tell the players and why did you indicate last week that they didn't have to stand for the song if they didn't want to?
No. 4 - Sam's season ...
I'm going to raise my hand right now and admit that I'm not really sure what to say about the season that senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger is having.
On one hand, he's passed for 16 touchdowns, rushed for another five and has basically willed the Longhorns at times to remain in and/or win games,
On the other hand, the touchdowns only tell part of the story. In a year when we knew that Ehlinger needed to raise his level of player as a passer, his passer rating of 151.6 (4th in the Big 12) is essentially the same as last season's 151.8 through four games. More alarming than that has been the trend of his passing efficiency since week one. Check it out.
vs. UTEP: 234.2 rating
at Tech: 158.8 rating
vs. TCU: 133.4 rating
vs, OU: 107.0 rating
Those defenses rank 6th (TCU), 8th (Oklahoma) and 9th (Texas Tech), respectively, in the Big in terms of total defense.
That's a rather ominous truth about what's left for this Texas offense to deal with for the rest of the season because this team will only go as far as Ehlinger can take it, but only better defenses than the ones he's mostly struggled against in the last three weeks remain.
Gulp.
No. 5 - A few cringe-worthy numbers ...
* Through 40 percent of the season, Sam Ehlinger leads the team in rushing (242) by 56 yards over Keaontay Ingram and 100 yards over Roschon Johnson.
* In ranking 8th in the Big 12 in total sacks, the Longhorns actually have fewer sacks (5) than Baylor (6) has in half as many games.
* Texas has only one defensive player (Joseph Ossai) that ranks among the top 22 players in the Big 12 in tackles for loss and only one player (Alfred Collins) in the top 25 in sacks.
No. 6 - About Mack Brown ...
As everyone watched Mack Brown turn the North Carolina program around, with all due respect to the loss to Florida State this weekend, I think there's one thing everyone needs to remember about the situation.
Mack needed a reboot.
It's easy to sit back and think that the Longhorns would be better off with Mack still in charge of the program, but it also overlooks the fact that he needed a break from Texas and a few years off to recharge his jets.
His chops as a Hall of Fame coach were never in question, but his batteries were so drained by the end of the 2013 season that it took a couple of years in the TV booth for him to get his football coaching version of Humpty Dumpty back together again.
The breakup was needed for both sides. The problem is that only one side of the break-up has improved from the situation.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) It's the only thing that makes sense right now.
(Sell) No new coach will take that on as a duty and it won't be expected, either.
(Buy) I don't know who has made it and I'm not sure who it might be going through because Meyer doesn't currently have an agent than I'm aware of, but I have to believe feelers have been made.
(Buy) Baylor hasn't played in two weeks and needs to play. I think they find a way, but ... who knows?
(Sell) That's a huge, unrealistic number in my mind.
(Buy) Yeah, 7-3 would save his job IMO.
(Sell) However, collateral damage is a real thing and I believe it will all add up at the end of the season, but Herman will get his money. He's got all the leverage.
(Sell) If they are sitting at 3-6 going into the final game, I could possibly see them pulling the string before the season-finale, but it would take that kind of disaster.
(Buy) He's one of the best coaches in college football history and the drop-off in available candidates is significant beyond him.
(Sell) bringing Tim Beck back as his OC after the first season when he had already learned he wasn't good enough might have killed his career in Austin.
(Buy) I once walked into my assistant principal's office with a guy named Tim Kaderli during my senior year and she told us both that we were graduating no matter how many days of school we missed the rest of the year. From that moment on, it was go-time, which means I made a lot of visits to City Park for the rest of the spring.
(Buy) We've kept both of our six-year-old twins at home for the first nine weeks of the first grade and so far, so good. The kids aren't getting a lot of social interaction, which is something we need to make sure we develop, but they have each other and we're way more involved in their school work than we were, which is something we view as a plus. However, it does take its pound of flesh on a daily basis. It. Is. Not. Easy.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... Texas A&M is emerging as a potential problem for the Longhorns. The Aggies are in the top, have a manageable schedule and currently rank in the top 10.
... Is Shane Buechele playing better football than Sam Ehlinger this season? If Ehlinger played for SMU, it feels like the Mustangs would still be 5-0 and if Buechele played for the Longhorns, the team would probably still be 2-2.
... It feels like we're heading for a Clemson/Alabama showdown ... again. The Tide played around with No. 3 Georgia for 30 minutes on Saturday, only to outscore the Dawgs 21-0 in the second half.
... Jaylen Waddle might be the best player in the country.
... Mack Brown just can't beat Florida State. Not in the 90s, not now ... not ever, apparently.
... In the same week where I was a landslide winner in the official "Mod October rankings,” this happened. Yes, this is a sign of the apocalypse.
... I liked the Texans going for two in an attempt to make it a nine-point game. I know it blew up on them, but I liked the thinking and have always wondered why more coaches don't do it.
... Derrick Henry is a man.
... The Bucs beat the Packers like they stole something. Ok, that grabbed my attention.
... Whether the Bengals have Joe Burrow or not, the Bengals are still the Bengals.
... I could have done without playing against BOTH Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in fantasy this week. That just seemed unfair.
... Sit down, Cleveland. We know what you are.
... I know Astros fans don't want to read this, but Randy Arozarena is in some kind of zone right now. What a post-season that dude is having!
... Richarlison is easy my least favorite athlete in any pro sport right now. In addition to being a run of the mill talent that plays small in big games, he's as dirty as a penny that's been in the desert for 10 years. That tackle on Thiago could have been a career-ended and it happened because he was frustrated because he'd been a non-factor for 90 minutes and the POS DNA inside of him took over.
... Losing Virgil Van Dijk is a killer for Liverpool ... all because Jordan Pickford is a clumsy, reckless bum of a goal-keeper. It's impossible to know how much of a killer his loss is, but he might be the most important player in all of world soccer to his club. I've literally wanted to fight someone for the last 36 hours. I still like the Reds to win the league, but it went from a lay-up to a pair of free throws in one weekend.
... Harry Kane is in some kind of form. Can he stay healthy for an entire season? If so, Tottenham is a legit top four threat once again, collapse against West Ham and all.
... On one hand, I loved having the Teofimo Lopez/Vasiliy Lomanchenko fight for free on ESPN. I can't say that I had ever watched either fighter, but ESPN was touting Lomanchenko as the best pound for pound fighter in the sport ... so I was in. My thoughts? If Lomanchenko is as good as it gets, boxing is in a world of hurt because I thought Lomanchenko was about as impressive as most of the diets I've ever gone on. After all the pre-fight build up, I wanted to see some hands turned loose and Lomanchenko couldn't have been more boring and unimpressive if he had been trying to lose the fight on purpose. Lopez can box. I like him. He's American. When Lomanchenko had his most offensive success in the 8th round, Lopez was ready to throw hands and turn it loose, and over the next few rounds it was Lomanchenko who backed down. I'll watch Lopez's next fight. Also, hello, Andre Ward! He's really developing some Tony Romo vibes as an announcer. All in all, I thought the entire presentation was a major win for ESPN. For the record, I had it 117-111.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Dogs ...
This might be the most click-bait Top 10 list that I've ever created, but a friend of mine flew to Seattle this week to pick up a red mini poodle that was a gift from his mom and it seemed very topical for me.
I expect some debate, so let's get on with it.
10. German Shepard
9. Rottweiler
8. Bassett Hound
7. Beagle
6. Bulldog
5. Labrador Retriever
4. Golden Retriever
3. Blood Hound
2. Mutt
1. Weimaraner
Discuss.
No.10 - And finally...
Over the weekend, I came across something that I'm not sure I've seen with my own eyes in at least a decade. It's the first story that I contributed as a writer for the Texas Sports Information Department. Outside of articles published for The Shield, which is the award-winning newspaper for Austin McCallum High, this my first published article.
Yes, I quoted Emerson.
