Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (Permission to dream big?)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Ketch, that was a hell-of-an analysis of OL recruitment over a decade +
I realize we've had our issues at QB, but if you need a root cause analysis over why we haven't won consistently or big, I believe you nailed it. With data, with facts, nothing subjective there.
And the under-performance of Texas HS lineman is shocking. At Texas we have had good-to-great DBs even during the dark years but couldn't keep a pipeline of OLs coming to win games, championships, or save coaches jobs.
I realize we've had our issues at QB, but if you need a root cause analysis over why we haven't won consistently or big, I believe you nailed it. With data, with facts, nothing subjective there.
And the under-performance of Texas HS lineman is shocking. At Texas we have had good-to-great DBs even during the dark years but couldn't keep a pipeline of OLs coming to win games, championships, or save coaches jobs.
I know he mentioned him today in the press conference, but his camp has not been on the same level as Smith. Hoping the light switch comes on Saturday.
It's beyond strange that the state's top OL have struggled so much compared to their peers.
You know Saban also won at LSU, right? I mean you can claim whatever you want, but the last 2 places he was at won at the highest level. PS: no ONE is winning big at Toledo...
I think most predictions of human endeavor are some form of:
Past performance + expecred changes (plus or minus) = predicted future performance
For football that is something like
Last year's team - players lost + new players + expected improvement for carryover players +/- expected injuries compared to last year +/- effects of coaching changes +/- changes in opponents = predicted future performance
For Texas for 2020, I think the net of the changes is pretty positive, so I think this team will be a lot better than last year's.
I believe that some long time Texas fans may be unduly pessimistic because of long past performance by the Longhorns. It is true that we have mostly sucked for ten years and that we have failed to live up to expectations for most of those years. But there are hardly any players and no coaches left from the Charlie Strong era and none from the Mack Brown decline years. There are even new ADs. I cannot imagine how any failures from those years has any effect on the current season except the scars still carried by us fans.
Past performance + expecred changes (plus or minus) = predicted future performance
For football that is something like
Last year's team - players lost + new players + expected improvement for carryover players +/- expected injuries compared to last year +/- effects of coaching changes +/- changes in opponents = predicted future performance
For Texas for 2020, I think the net of the changes is pretty positive, so I think this team will be a lot better than last year's.
I believe that some long time Texas fans may be unduly pessimistic because of long past performance by the Longhorns. It is true that we have mostly sucked for ten years and that we have failed to live up to expectations for most of those years. But there are hardly any players and no coaches left from the Charlie Strong era and none from the Mack Brown decline years. There are even new ADs. I cannot imagine how any failures from those years has any effect on the current season except the scars still carried by us fans.
There are any players left from the Mack Brown years and only a few Charlie strays for sure, but...
There are a lot of players in this program that lost four Big 12 games a year ago.
These dudes don't really know success or how to sustain it if they taste a little.
My biggest concerns about this team...
a. Mental toughness.
I just don't know on a scale of 1-10 what the number is. I know it was not very high a year ago.
b. Uncertainty of multiple areas of the team.
Quite simple, there are question marks.
c. Random shit.
Herman loses games he shouldn't every year and 2020 has been full of surprises.
When you add a + b + c .... it ends up equaling some concern for me. THat's all I'm saying.
Weak prediction yank.
Knock on wood, we're a mere five days and change until the 2020 Texas football team kicks off its season and I'm going to make a confession...
I don't know what to tell you.
As the sand has passed through the hour glass in recent weeks, I'm intrigued by the reality that I find myself so unsure about the 2020 Texas Longhorns, while so many others seem to certain about the upcoming season.
"7-3 would be disaster!"
"8-2 is the minimum bar!"
"We should win every game."
I see the constant stream of confidence and I wonder if we're all watching the same football program.
From my vantage point, there are two things that I'm confident that I know about this year's Longhorns:
a. The program has been stuck in manure for the last decade and is literally coming off a 7-5 season that led to the removal of 70-percent of Tom Herman's coaching staff.
b. I don't have a great feeling for what to expect.
That's it. That's my list.
I suppose I know a few more things. I know Texas lost four Big 12 games in 2019, TCU drop-kicked the Longhorns upside the head for the fifth time in six years and Baylor won by two touchdowns and led 21-3 going into the fourth quarter. Oh, and Kansas nearly beat Texas at DKR.
Yeah yeah, yeah... Texas hung with LSU and Oklahoma for four quarters if you're into moral victories defining your hope. The Longhorns also beat the hell out of Utah so bad in the bowl game that it became impossible to not wonder if Herman should fire a coach every week.
The reason I'm beyond the point of exasperation is that we've seen Texas flash over the course of the last decade, and I have no doubt they'll flash again at various points in 2020.
Yet, this has been a program that has taken two steps forward and 2.5 steps back for pretty much an entire decade and while everyone makes grand predictions about the upcoming season, all I want to know is this...
What the hell have you guys seen that makes you believe this season is the moment when Texas football draws a line in the sand and declares, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more!"
Believe me, I want to believe. I'm like a 10-year old kid wanting to believe in Santa, that's how bad I want to believe. In case you haven't noticed, we're in a pandemic and a bad-ass Texas football team would be one hell of a good thing for business, so when I tell you that I want to believe, know that with every piece of my soul I'd wish Texas to a 10-0 season and into the playoff if I could.
But, I'm the guy that gave you permission to dream big in 2016. Remember that? How'd that go?
No, the truth of the matter is that we've seen one okey-doke after another starting with the 2010 season and I've jumped on that hook, line and sinker enough times that I'm going to wait until I see that worm talking to a family member before I go for a bite again without caution.
What I worry about with this team is that it's been sucked down into being average for so long that it truly doesn't know how to get out of it. It's a cycle that plagued the Longhorns from the mid-80s through the early portion of Mack Brown's tenure. Mediocrity has become muscle-memory around this program. Does it have the steel that a guy like Vince Young gave it to pull itself out of the Oklahoma domination 15 years ago? Is that who Sam is?
Until I see a weekly level of anger and unbreakable resolution from the boys in burnt orange, you'll forgive me if I don't see 7-3 as unrealistic when it represents more than this program has regularly accomplished since Charlie Sheen was the highest-paid actor on television.
Yeah, man. It's been that long.
No. 2 - Falling off the deep end ...
If you missed it on Friday, I took the first step towards the deep end of the pool when I released the first stream of data related to the historical output of the state's top-ranked offensive linemen in the Rivals.com rankings from 2002-2015.
Basically, the data confirmed what you already likely knew, which is the Lone Star State and (specifically) the Texas program perform well-below the national norms.
But, how much under the national norms?
That question steered me into some deep waters this weekend, as I set out to provide context to the UT offensive line development problem by being able to directly inspect it with the proper amount of context.
So, I not only researched the state of Texas, but I also specifically broke down the numbers in California and Florida. When that felt like it wasn't enough, I charted the success rates of each area of the country. Finally, I narrowed my focus to schools like Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma.
By the time I was done with the research this weekend, I had reviewed the careers of more than 600 of the highest ranked offensive linemen in the country among the high school ranks, including every four- or five-star line prospect from 2002-2015.
Before I take you head-first into the data, I want to explain why I'm using the NFL drafted data points for emphasis.
1. None of this is subjective. In terms of compiling data, it's either a yes or no. There's no debate. The system is the purest means of evaluating the development of talent at the end of each player's cycle.
2. While there are occasional exceptions to the rule, this method of measurement leaves out very few top-level college players, which means that it ends up providing data for us that is generally strong enough to not be impacted drastically with a smattering anomalies.
3. This is not the end-all of useful data, but what it does allow for us to do to is stick an actual numerical value on recruiting rankings and their individual worth.
I'm all ears if anyone has any better ideas.
No. 3 - The Longhorns vs. the national numbers ...
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players being drafted in the NFL.
* 46.3% (25 of 54) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 34.2% (28 of 82) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 23.0% (26 of 113) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 14.7% (50 of 341) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to players from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 22.2% (2 of 9) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 35.7% (5 of 14) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 6.7% (1 of 15) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 21.1% (8 of 38) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
From 2002-15, here's a look at the performance breakdown of each of the top four rankings tiers in the Rivals.com rankings system with regards to Longhorns from the state of Texas being drafted in the NFL.
* 33.3% (1 of 3) of five-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams:
* 14.3% (1 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 0.0% (0 of 6) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 8.3% (1 of 12) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
What's interesting about the data as it relates to the state of Texas is how much the numbers in prove in a couple of areas when you pull the Longhorns out of the development equation.
* 57.1% (4 of 7) of high-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 11.1% (1 of 9) of mid-four star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams
* 26.9% (7 of 26) of low four-star offensive line prospects were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 4 - Comparing Texas vs. other programs ...
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Florida 42.1% (8 of 19)
Alabama 37.5% (9 of 24)
Miami 33.3% (6 of 18)
Georgia 31.3% (5 of 16)
Ohio State 30.4% (7 of 23)
USC 29.6% (8 of 27)
Oklahoma 26.3% (5 of 19)
Auburn 25% (6 of 24)
Michigan 19.2% (5 of 26)
LSU 15.4% (4 of 26)
Texas 10.7% (3 of 28)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five- and high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Auburn 83.3% (5 of 6)
Alabama 60.0% (6 of 10)
Miami 50.0% (2 of 4)
USC 40.0% (6 of 15)
Georgia 40.0% (2 of 5)
Florida 37.5% (3 of 8)
Ohio State 33.3% (3 of 9)
LSU 25.0% (1 of 4)
Texas 20.0% (2 of 10)
Michigan 14.3% (1 of 7)
Oklahoma 0.0% (0 of 2)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid- and low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Florida 45.5% (5 of 11)
Oklahoma 29.4% (5 of 17)
Miami 28.9% (4 of 14)
Ohio State 28.6% (4 of 14)
Georgia 25.0% (3 of 12)
Alabama 21.4% (3 of 14)
Michigan 21.1% (4 of 19)
USC 16.7% (2 of 12)
LSU 13.6% (3 of 22)
Auburn 5.6% (1 of 18)
Texas 5.6% (1 of 18)
A couple of notes worth mentioning...
* Five of the 6 five-stars Alabama has recruited from 2002-2015 have been drafted. Four of the six have been first round picks and the other was selected in the second round.
* Not to be completely outdone, Auburn has had 5 of the 6 highest-rated prospects in program history from 2002-2015 drafted by NFL teams.
* Oklahoma is 0 for 4 with the four-highest rated linemen in program history from 2002-2015, but have made some money in that low four-star tier. In fact, Oklahoma developed more low-four-star linemen in its 2015 recruiting class into drafted players than Texas had in all of those years.
* No program in the country has signed more five and four star high school offensive line prospects between 2002-2015 than Texas (28).
No. 5 - The regions with the most talent ...
This might be the most interesting section of data for my money.
In hopes of determining which areas of the country are developing the best talent, I did breakdowns on the following states/regions of the country.
* Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Washington DC and West Virgnia
* Midwest (Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota
* Southeast (Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee)
* West (California, Oregon,. Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada and Alaska)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all five-star prospects from 2002-2015:
West 66.7% (8 of 12)
Southeast 50.0% (7 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 50% (6 of 12)
Midwest 28.6% (2 of 7)
Texas 22.2 (2 of 9)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all high four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
West 45.5% (5 of 11)
Texas 35.7% (5 of 14)
Mid-Atlantic 35% (7 of 20)
Southeast 25.0% (4 of 16)
Midwest 21.4% (3 of 14)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all mid four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Mid-Atlantic 38.9% (7 of 18)
Southeast 33.3% (13 of 39)
Midwest 20.0% (3 of 15)
'West 8.3% (2 of 24)
Texas 6.7% (1 of 15)
Here's the percentages of drafted players including all low four-star prospects from 2002-2015:
Midwest 17.3% (9 of 52)
Texas 16.2% (6 of 37)
'West 13.9% (10 of 72)
Southeast 13.6% (14 of 103)
Mid-Atlantic 13.4% (9 of 67)
So, what would be my 3-step plan to rebuilding the planning along the offensive line recruiting if I was basing it on this data.
1. Heavily target the elite offensive line talent out West.
2. Emphasize building some in-roads into a very talented and insanely underrated Mid-Atlantic region.
3. Once you get beyond, the elite of the elite prospects in the West and Mid-Atlantic, there's not much reason to leave the state of Texas for low-four star talent and below. There's no real regional advantage to be found the deeper you go into the talent pool.
No. 6 - Scattershooting on Longhorns football ...
... Does the entire season come down to how well Denzel Okafor and Christian Jones come together on the right side of the offensive line? That might be a little much, but there's no question that one of the subplots to this season is just how well that side of the line can play.
... The closer the season gets, the more I'm starting to think Roschon Johnson has been marginalized because of the looming Bijan Robinson shadow, but don't be shocked if he ends up building off of last season's start at running back with a year that takes a back seat to few on this roster.
... Brennan Eagles showing up needing to be pushed into game shape is beyond disappointment. Come on, Brennan!
... I sure would like to have heard Jordan Whittington's name a little more in camp.
... I'm not sure Whittington really pushed Jake Smith in camp. Buy all the Jake Smith stock you can.
... Where's the pass rush coming from outside of Joseph Ossai? I don't know.
... I think Alfred Collins might be starting by the Oklahoma game.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I need to see it to believe it.
(Sell) It's the first game. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas is in the 30s and UTEP scores a couple of touchdowns. Texas just needs to get the game played, win and show some improvement.
(Sell)
(Sell) I'm just not sure Texas is going to have a chance to break in Card this year unless there's an injury.
(Buy) If you set it at 3.5, I might take the under, though.
(Sell) I think there's a zero-percent chance Sam accounts for 45+ touchdowns in 10 games.
(Buy) I bet it's better than people think. Gonna be a lot of people dying to scream after the job 2020 has done on us.
(Sell) I need to see it to believe it. It just feels like hype right now.
(Sell) At least one game gets cancelled or postponed. Just a guess.
(Sell) Not being last might as well be the same as being first for Bob.
(Sell) I've watched a lot of hoops this week.
(Sell) I have to believe Rattler finishes as a Top 2 quarterback.
(Sell) It's not impossible, but I'll say they get two in as of right now.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... I weirdly enjoyed the SMU/Texas State game. I can't explain why other than to say... FOOTBALL!
... Bring on mighty undefeated UTEP! Seriously, having played a game is a nice little advantage for UTEP going into this game.
... BYU/Navy has a chance to be a fun little college football game on Monday.
... My fantasy draft is tomorrow and I don't have any idea what I plan to do with the 8th pick.
... Isn't Brandon Carr a little old to be on the Dallas practice squad? I guess not.
... DeShaun Watson's contract was just a not nail in the coffin in the idea that Dallas won't eventually pay Dak prescott every dime he wants.
... Mitch Trubisky is the starting quarterback in Chicago. Have fun, Bears fans.
... Of course, that happened to Novak Djokovic. Good grief.
... I might be the only person who believes this, but Leo Messi's problems are all Leo Messi's fault. When you're worth over 100 million per year as a brand and you don't have elite lawyers advising you, any contract issue is one person and one person's fault only.
... If Gini Wijnaldum has played his last game for Liverpool, he'll leave as a legend of the club and a key piece of everything the club has accomplished over the last few seasons. Consider me sad, as he'll be the first true critical piece of the last few seasons to move on if he heads to Barcelona. Excuse me while I tear up.
No. 9 - The List: Best Yacht Rock Songs ...
40 years ago this week, Christopher Cross topped the Billboard rankings with the iconic "Sailing".
With that in. mind, I give you my Top 10 Yacht Rock songs of all-time.
10. Baby Come Back (Player)
9. How Much I Feel (Ambrosia)
8. Arthur's Theme (Christopher Cross)
7. What a Fool Believes (Doobie Brothers)
6. This Is It (Kenny Loggins)
5. Rosanna (Toto)
4. Hey Nineteen (Steely Dan)
3. Africa (Toto)
2. Waiting for a Girl Like You (Foreigner)
1. Saling (Christopher Cross)
No.10 - And finally...
7-3.
That's my season prediction.
I’d like to know if there is any difference between interior linemen and tackles, school size and if there is a difference in projections according to race at OL projections.
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Then it never will be. If it isn't ready for takeoff in year 4 with the best QB in the conference, its not a plane. And Tom is not a pilot.
Its a big yellow POS taxi, and you realize you should have ordered an uber instead. Now you will smell like the last guy to ride in it.
I now understand why you were so unsure about the 2020 Texas Longhorns.
And 7-3 might in fact be a disaster.
As the sand has passed through the hour glass in recent weeks, I'm intrigued by the reality that I find myself so unsure about the 2020 Texas Longhorns, while so many others seem to certain about the upcoming season.
"7-3 would be disaster!"
"8-2 is the minimum bar!"
"We should win every game."
Ketch you did give the 7-3 Record but did say it would be a disaster. It was a disaster the way Texas got to a 7-3 record!
"7-3 would be disaster!"
"8-2 is the minimum bar!"
"We should win every game."
Ketch you did give the 7-3 Record but did say it would be a disaster. It was a disaster the way Texas got to a 7-3 record!
