8.5.
That's been the correct over/under for regular season wins in my mind for the last eight months for the 2021 Texas Longhorns football team.
Nothing has changed my mind since January. Not the quarterback battle. Not anything from the scrimmages. Not the promise of Pete Kwiatkowsi's defense. Not the absurdity of Bijan Robinson's talent.
When it comes to predicting a won-loss record for this team, I suppose it boils down to how much benefit of the doubt we're all willing to give a program with inexperienced quarterback play and questions at several key positions under yet another new set of first-year coaches. Personally, I'm willing to give this team some, just not all of the benefit of the doubt.
Let's just start with the fact that I believe the OU and Iowa State games project as losses going into the season. That's not to say that neither of those games are winnable, it's just that Oklahoma looks like the better team right now on paper and when the Longhorns travel to Ames, it will be one of the biggest home games in the history of the Iowa State program. Giving the benefit of the doubt in those two games in mid-August feels more like blind faith than anything else.
That means when picking a won-loss record, we're starting at 10-2 and asking how many banana skins the program will slip on while trying to answer a lot of questions in a hurry against a schedule full of tricky little hurdles.
Louisiana might have a significant quarterback experience edge, but it isn’t scary ... just tricky. Same with going on the road at Fayettenam the next week. Same with that little trip to Ft. Worth the week before Texas/OU. Same with an Oklahoma State team that has won of the last six times it has played in Austin, Same with the game in Waco. Same with the game in Morgantown in late November.
None of those six games as standalone conquests seems overly daunting, but I'd typically think that only a team with consistently good quarterback play, good coaching, season-long gifts from the injury gods, a play-making defense and just a little bit of luck on its side at almost all times would run the table of six tricky games, four of which are on the road.
Just how much benefit of the doubt are you willing to give?
To hell with it, let's do some season predictions ...
1. Texas will beat Louisiana in one of the most memorable home games of the season behind big plays from its defense in the second half. In fact, I believe Texas will start the season off with a 3-0 record for the first time since 2012.
See ... I'm giving some benefit of the doubt.
2. I'm putting Bijan Robinson down for 1,800 yards of total offense and 20 touchdowns. Those aren't quite 1997 Ricky Williams numbers, but it's definitely in the zip code.
3. Hudson Card will start all 12 games barring injury. He's going to be learning on the fly, but he's going to be hell on wheels by the time the end of the season rolls around. The learning curve can't be completely cheated. I'm thinking something along the lines of what Keith Price did in his first season as a starter - 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 160.0-ish passing efficiency.
4. Casey Thompson will stick around for the entire season because it makes more sense than leaving and he'll have a Chance Mock vs Texas Tech in 2003 type moment before the year ends.
5. The first banana peel that the team slips on this season will be in Ft. Worth. I keep thinking we might see some screwy Grant Teaff in Waco back in 1992-type stuff because of the Longhorns leaving the Big 12 and that game against the man who has been such a thorn for the last decade feels like a perfect moment for a Montreal Screwjob.
6. Jordan Whittington will lead the team in receptions, but it feels like too tall of an ask to expect him to be near the 100-reception total I believe he's capable of. I'm going to put him down for 65.
7. Xavier Worthy will have the best freshman season of any receiver in school history, besting Roy Williams' numbers in 2000 - 40 receptions for 809 yards and eight touchdowns. I'm putting Worthy down for 50 receptions for 850 yards and nine touchdowns.
8. Texas will enter its game against Oklahoma State with a 4-2 record and at a bit of a season crossroads. Card will throw for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a bit of a coming out party performance. Texas wins 41-23.
9. Keondre Coburn, DeMarvion Overshown and D'Shawn Jamison all earn first-team All-Big 12 honors.
10. Texas will nearly double its sacks per game from 1.7 in 2020 to 3.0 in 2021, as Alfred Collins leads the team with 5.5 sacks , while four other players (Overshown, Coburn, Ovie Oghoufu and Moro Ojomo) will each have more than four.
11. Luke Brockermeyer will lead the team in interceptions with four.
12. The Longhorns and Cyclones will play an all-timer in Ames that will have a Lubbock in 2008 kind of vibe to it. Iowa State wins it late on a last-second field goal. It will be the only loss in the last seven regular season games for the Longhorns.
13. Texas finishes the season 9-3 and ranked No. 14 in the country at the end of the regular season. It wins all three of its final the "tricky" games of the season.
14. Three offensive linemen - left tackle Christian Jones, center Jake Majors and right tackle Derek Kerstetter will earn honorable mention All-Big 12 honors at the end of the season.
15. Senior Josh Thompson earns second-team All-Big 12 honors at cornerback.
16. Anthony Cook will win the Senior Out of Nowhere Award, as the senior on the team that has the best season that no one saw coming from a mile away three months before the season started. It used to be an award given out annually, so maybe this starts the tradition all over again.
17. Three Texas tight ends will catch more than 25 passes this season, while junior Jared Wiley leads the unit with 35 catches.
18. Hudson Card, Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy, Christian Jones, Jake Majors and Alfred Collins all play well enough to ensure that they will be pre-season All-Big 12 in 2022.
Discuss.
No. 2 - About the quarterbacks ...
I've been wrong before, but all of the signs point to Hudson Card starting the season at quarterback.
Since replacing Casey Thompson as the quarterback that runs out with the first-team offense first and most-often a week ago on Monday, all the second-year quarterback has done is put together his best week of practice as a Longhorn quarterback.
Thompson has been better in the last week of camp than he probably has been at any point in 2021, but he really wasn't able to gain ground on Card in a way that is going to change the direction of the quarterback discussion.
I'm not sure that we'll actually get an answer on who will be the starter on an official basis until 48 hours or so before the first game (if then), but I don't expect Card to take fewer first-team reps going forward.
No. 3 - If you're not into positivity ...
These are the on-field issues that concern me the most with 13 days until the season opener.
a. The inconsistency and availability of the wide receivers
When the Longhorns can trot out Jordan Whittington, Joshua Moore and Xavier Worthy at the same time at wide receiver, there's probably only one school in the Big 12 with better raw wide receiver personnel. I'm just a little worried about the fact that all three have already missed time in camp and both Moore/Worthy have had some consistency issues. How much will the offense bog down if those three have off days? Will anyone else step up in a meaningful way? Is this group going to cost this team a game?
b. Cohesion along the offensive line
The Longhorns seem to have a line that goes a bit hot and cold depending on the day. Days like the scrimmage on Saturday proved that this group can perform well against good players, but we're a week removed from the group as a whole not being able to get a whole lot done. Getting all five of the linemen firing off the ball and winning their battles all at the same time play after play is going to be a challenge.
c. Playmaking on the defensive side of the ball.
While I'm predicting this team's pass rush to be much more effective than it was a season ago, I still worry about the lack of pressure coming off the edge at times and the playmaking ability of those in the back end of the defense at safety. There are a lot of unproven pieces on that side of the ball that need to keep raising their levels of play.
No. 4 – ICYMI ...
Other than Steve Sarkisian's interview with the press on Saturday, these are the only post-scrimmage on-the-record interviews from anyone in the program following the second scrimmage.
No. 5 - From the School of Keeping Your Friends Close and Your Enemies Closer ...
Don't shoot the messenger, but Oklahoma is on the verge of building the best recruiting class in the modern era of recruiting in 2023.
After landing 5-star quarterback Malachi Nelson in July, the Sooners picked up 5-star wide receiver Brandon Inniss on Sunday, which gives them two of the nation's top four overall prospects in the recently updated 2023 Rivals rankings. Add in running back Treyaun Webb and tight end Luke Hasz, and OU has commitments from four of the nation's top 40 prospects in the 2023 class ... all on the offensive side of the ball.
The Longhorns currently don't have a single 2023 commitment.
No. 6 - Sam Ehlinger Update ...
Somehow ... Sam Ehlinger had a pre-season game that was highlighted by two lowlights (tipped passes that were intercepted) and he is still under consideration for making the start for Indianapolis in its regular-season opener.
As a rookie.
After completing 8 of 13 for 70 yards and the two picks, there was still a very positive buzz surrounding Ehlinger, primarily because 12 of his 13 passes were reportedly balls that his team should have caught.
"I gotta look at the film to make that determination but my hunch is that we're probably going to need to see another week," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "My hunch is that we're probably going to need to see another week because I think both guys are doing enough, showing enough good signs. Both guys have made enough mistakes, but that's normal — I mean, shoot, it's hard out there. It's not easy."
Friday night's game against Detroit looms large.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) The moment that Sarkisian picks Card, he'll know that he has to stick with him. I'm predicting that Card turns into a better player than Sam Ehlinger was before his career is over.
(Sell) This season's ultimate success will be determined by its quarterback play.
(Buy) Pittman might sell his soul for that one.
(Sell) I think Herman was a very good talent evaluator, but I can't say he was elite. In the spirit of your question, I believe he's a very underrated talent evaluator.
(Buy) I don't know if he'll play all 12, but he'll play in the opener and in more than 6.
(Buy) Yeah, I'll go along with this being the best backfield since 2006, primarily because Bijan is such a top-end talent and the support behind him is four-deep in quality. The 2004 tight end group had Bo Scaife and David Thomas ...
(Sell) The NCAA is like a cockroach at the end of the world ... it'll die last or probably just make it altogether.
(Sell) Give some of those Mack Brown (especially 2004) and DKR teams some damn respect.
(Sell) I'm not sure what issue you think is being dodged. There's been a lot of discussion about the coaches and their performance as recruiters thus far. Andre Coleman is under a big spotlight. Kyle Flood isn't meeting expectations. Folks have questions about Terry Joseph. I don't know what world exists where Texas assistant coaches get free passes from recruiting misses.
(Sell) He'll play, though. No doubt about that.
(Sell) This coaching staff, especially Sarkisian as a head coach, has a lot to prove. The Big 12 has two head coaches that would be NFL head coaches right now if they wanted to be in the NFL. Meanwhile, Texas hasn't recruited enough of the true difference makers in recruiting to have a true roster advantage. It's collection of four stars was only marginally more talented than Iowa State's group of three stars at the beginning of things, but the Cyclones have a roster full of fully DEVELOPED players. They might have double-digit NFL players in the starting line-up coming into the season.
(Buy) I like them to finish third.
(Sell) Kansas will get a pity invite somewhere... I think.
(Buy) Who in the hell hyped up Chris Ash like you think he was hyped up? Ash was a guy coming in from Rutgers who hadn't coached a good defense in half a decade when he arrived. That little truth was discussed in real time.
(Sell) Huh? You know TCU is the fifth game, right?
(Sell) Texas throws for nearly 300 in the opener.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... Hate to hear about Joseph Ossai's season-ending injury for the Bengals, but his situation is a reminder of why I never begrudge a dude for wanting to cash in and make money in this sport while he can.
... It kind of feels like Shane Buechele is going to make the Chiefs practice squad. He was pretty good in expanded play this weekend against the Cardinals.
... ICYMI: Former Texas DB Quandre Diggs was recently voted as the NFL's No. 77 overall player In the NFL Network's Top 100 Players of 2021. What a career he's having!
... Is Mac Jones going to turn out to be really good with the Patriots?
... Mitch Trubisky getting his revenge on the Bears in a pre-season game was worth a chuckle.
... This read from TheRinger.com on Kevin Durant's evolution as a player is worth your time.
... I should have never said a damn thing about the Phillies being in the first place on an eight-game winning streak two weeks ago. Two weeks later, the season is basically over.
... Austin FC scored three goals at home on Saturday night!!! Austin FC scored three goals at home on Saturday night!!! Austin FC scored three goals at home on Saturday night!!!
... Premier League Thoughts From The Weekend: I'm old enough to remember Manchester United winning the league with a win over Leeds, only to drop points to Southampton days later. That team's place this year in the Premier League is fighting Leicester City for fourth. How in the hell did Tottenham take all three points on Sunday? Adama Traoré might have been the best player in the Premier League this week and yet he was rubbish when it mattered most. He's so confusing as a player. Looking forward to the European champions coming to Anfield in six days. Buckle up.
... Imagine ESPN on Monday morning if this had happened in the States ...
No. 9 - Top 10 Baseball Movies of All-Time ...
I'm not going to say anything else. I'm just going to prepare myself for the backlash at having The Sandlot as low as I have it.
10. Eight Men Out
9. Money Ball
8. The Natural
7. A League of Their Own
6. The Sandlot
5. Long Gone
4. Field of Dreams
3. Major League
2. Bad News Bears
1. Bull Durham
No. 10 - And Finally ...
13 freaking days until Louisiana. It's almost here, folks.
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