Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The case against making the playoff ...)

Discussion in 'Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend Archive' started by Ketchum, Oct 21, 2018.

  1. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    [​IMG]
    Before I even go down the rabbit hole wearing a bunny suit, let me admit for the record that I'm a "go-for-it" kind of guy, which means I'm definitely not a natural advocate for the cautious nature of the debate I'm about to put in front of you.

    But, I get it.

    I'll also admit that a pretty convincing case can be made for laying up, if you will.

    The conversation goes like this ... I was talking with a friend of mine about the parallels that somewhat exist between the 2008 and 2018 seasons with much of the focus centering on what happened at the end of the season to the Colt McCoy-led squad vs. what could happened at the end of the season for a Sam Ehlinger-led squad.

    My friend's contention was with hindsight, he believed the Longhorns were better off winning the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State and missing the championship game altogether than making the national title game and losing to Tim Tebow's Gators based on these three factors.

    a. Winning the Fiesta Bowl against the Buckeyes represented one of the best bowl trips/wins as a Longhorns fan that he'd ever had, ranking only behind the two Rose Bowls.

    b. Losing out to the Sooners in 2008 for the championship game lit a fire under the program to make things right in 2009, which led to a Big 12 title and a national title game appearance, one he believes they would have won if McCoy had not been injured in that game. He also believes that if Texas had lost the national championship game in 2008, it might have created the type of hangover that the 2009 Sooners suffered, something that missing the 2008 title game absolutely assured wouldn't happen to the Longhorns.

    c. Texas finished 2008 ranked higher than the Sooners.

    As the conversation continued, I asked him the following ... if he could choose one of the two following outcomes, which would he take?

    a. Winning the Big 12 title, but finishing No. 5 in the playoff rankings, thus missing the playoffs. However, the Longhorns would go on to win a major bowl game, finish in the top 5 of the final rankings and have the fuel needed to push them for a big 2019 run.

    b. Winning the Big 12 title and making the playoffs as the No. 4 seed, but losing to Alabama by 30+ and finishing outside of the top five in the final rankings.

    He picked option B.

    I told him I'd pick option B if you could tell me that Texas might have a 5-percent chance of winning the game and only a 95-percent chance of a 30+ point loss.

    More than anything, I suppose it comes down to whether you feel like ending the season on a high note in a slightly less high-profile situation has a greater value than ending the season on a low note in a much higher profile situation.

    It's the kind of thing you talk about in a bye week, I suppose.

    Interestingly enough, the results of a Twitter Poll proved to be much closer than I expected.



    No. 2 - Pre-Halloween in Stillwater ...

    Just handle your business.

    That would be my message to Tom Herman's players this week, as they prepare for one of those prime-time match-ups against a team that looks overpowered on paper, but can turn its entire season around with a win against a top-10 team in front of the entire nation.

    Oklahoma State is a battered and confused team. With losses in three of its last four games, including two straight at home by a combined 89-59 score, I'm not even sure if the Cowboys know who the hell is going to play quarterback for the majority of the game. I guess it'll be Taylor Cornelius, but that could change in a hurry if the Longhorns get ahead early.

    On paper, Texas should clean Oklahoma State's clock.

    Of course, if paper decided football games, Purdue would have lost to Ohio State by multiple scores on Saturday night instead of the skull-destruction that occurred.

    So, if you're Texas, put your head down and prepare for the best shot Oklahoma State might have and then you hit the back with a harder shot. And another. And another.

    This weekend is an opportunity for the Longhorns to show more backbone on the road than they did in losing to Maryland and messing around with Kansas State in the only two true road games they have played this season. Championship teams just find a way to get it done in games like this.

    Just handle your business ... and win ... by any means necessary.

    No.3 - If I had a vote that mattered ...

    1. Alabama



    *Grand Canyon-sized gap*



    2. Clemson
    3. Notre Dame
    4. LSU
    5. Georgia
    6. Texas
    7. Oklahoma
    8. Michigan
    9. Washington State
    10. Florida

    (Weekend musing about the Top 10)

    * Alabama is on its way to being discussed as one of the greatest teams in college football history. There's not enough hyperbole in the world for that team at the moment.

    * Ohio State has been weighed, it has been measured and it has been found wanting. I enjoyed the hell out of that beat-down.

    * Clemson is starting to find its feet with Trevor Lawrence.

    * Michigan has at least another loss in them.

    * Is this Washington State team the best group that Mike Leach has ever had? I think it might be, with all due respect to the 2008 Red Raiders.

    * Is Texas A&M underrated at No. 16? I don't know how you could justify ranking West Virginia over them, one loss vs. two losses, or not.

    No. 4 - Can you imagine this kid at Texas right now? ...


    Maybe the better question is, "Can you imagine how much money would be spent and to what lengths college basketball programs across the country would go if he was an AAU player with a future shoe deal?

    Honestly, I'm out of words to describe how good this kid has been this year.

    What an evaluation by Tom Herman and Co., it's just too bad that the kid wanted to stay close to home. It happens.

    No. 5 - Story time with Uncle Ketch ...

    I've never told anyone this before, but I was on the ground floor when the infamous Gotch Yarborough incident occurred back in the late 90s.

    For those that don't know the story, a mystery recruit by the name of "Gotch Yarborough" popped up on a Sunday morning, as he was supposed to be a secret official visitor from Canada.

    What's remembered about that situation was that former UT recruiting analyst David Garvin reported on the fictional prospect. What I've never told anyone before until now is that I spoke with Garvin right before he reported it.

    All these years later, I can remember sitting in the KEYE-TV newsroom talking to Garvin, who I had a very good relationship with at the time, about the situation.

    Truth be told, I didn't catch it. I remember telling Garvin that none of the details made sense and that the situation needed to be vetted more. Something just didn't add up.

    And then Garvin reported it.

    Gotch Yarborough ... aka ... Gotch Ya Bro.

    All these years later, if I had seen the obvious, I might have been able to prevent the situation from ever occurring.

    No. 6 - Compare and contrast ...

    Assuming Oklahoma State starts Taylor Cornelius this weekend at quarterback, the Longhorns will be facing a guy that was an unranked, zero-star prospect coming out of Bushland High School. Yes, Bushland is in the state of Texas.

    I thought it might be interesting to see who the top 6 quarterbacks (all state 100 prospects) from the Lone Star State were back in 2014.

    1. Jerrod Heard (Texas) - Record-setting moments at quarterback as a redshirt freshman, but was moved to receiver and has not quite lived up to the expectations of a top-10 prospect.

    2. Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) - Your fantasy football team has probably heard of him.

    3. Foster Sawyer (TCU) -
    Didn't last long at TCU and played only two seasons at SFA before leaving the sport.

    4. David Blough (Purdue) -
    A four-year starter for the Boilermakers, who has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 10 as a senior in 2018.

    5. Aaron Sharp (UCLA) -
    Left UCLA and played at Blinn Junior College, but I can't find him on a roster beyond that.

    6. Grayson Muehlstein (TCU) -
    Has never really made a dent on the depth chart for the Horned Frogs.

    No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
    [​IMG]

    BUY or SELL: Now seeing Herman’s body of work for almost two seasons, can we say the football world got it right about him being the "Up and Coming" coach that you better go get for your program?

    (Buy) To the victor go the spoils. Herman has his team in the top 10, contending for a conference title and his recruiting has been mostly aces for the last two seasons. I still don't know who in the hell would have been the back-up choice if it wasn't him.

    BUY or SELL: Sam is at least 90 percent against OK St and not a liability?

    (Sell) I don't think Ehlinger will be anywhere near 100-percent, but I do expect him to play. I think he's a guy who will need to be managed as a runner for a week or two. I'm not sure that I'm calling his number in the power run game this week and that makes the Texas offense a lesser unit than you'd like for it to be.

    BUY or SELL: Texas Dodged a bullet With Urban Meyer?

    (Buy) I suppose it depends on what you want to dodge. I wonder how many Texas fans would sell their souls for a national title, like he's won for Ohio State, because I think he'd absolutely have won a title as the head coach at Texas. Fans can convince themselves of a lot of things because of the euphoria that winning provides.

    BUY or SELL: Keaontay Ingram starts against the mullet?

    (Sell) I think Tre Watson is going to be the starter all season, even if Ingram receives more carries moving forward.

    BUY or SELL: The way this season is playing out, LSU at home next year will be the most hyped regular season game since ‘05 Ohio State?

    (Sell) The Ohio State rematch in 2006 was a No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle. If you're talking about pre-season hype, yes, I think a likely battle between top-10 teams will be much-discussed this off-season.

    BUY or SELL; Texas, at the end of the day, will finish with a strong class at OL and DL?

    (Sell) Not if by strong you mean at the level Texas needs it to be.

    BUY or SELL: Collectively, outside of Alabama and probably Clemson, this year shows a lot of parity. We are rated too high and are not a typical top 10 ...yet?

    (Sell) I'm not sure that "typical top 10" means anything anymore. To your point about parity, I find there to be very little difference between teams in the No. 6-10 range than the teams in the 10-20 range on an annual basis.

    BUY or SELL: Texas football is clearly headed in the right direction but Texas fans have eaten the cheese and an OB meltdown is in our near-term future?

    (Buy) Orangebloods is always a second away from a meltdown if the football team loses a game.

    BUY or SELL: Devin Duvernay could be as successful as Rondale Moore if he had better QBing (better deep throws) and he was used more effectively (getting him the ball in space)?

    (Sell) Nope. Moore is special.

    No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …


    ... A few years ago, I would have been wrecked by the type of loss Dallas suffered on Sunday, but the ball bouncing off the crossbar as time expired just created a shrug. I've seen and lived it so many times that it's hard to fall for Lucy's ball-holding trick to my emotions any more.

    ... I don't care what any of you say, I love NBA basketball in November.

    ... I'm not sure what to think about the brawl in the Rockets/Lakers game on Saturday. The older I get, the weirder it is for me to see guys essentially get away with things that would otherwise be crimes for the rest of us. Of course, who gets spit in the face at work? That whole sense was just bizarre.

    ... The Texans might not be hitting on cylinders, but with a four-game win streak, they’re back to being the team to beat in the AFC South. Color me impressed with Sunday's performance. Oh, and special shout out to Deshaun Watson, who had to take a 12-hour bus trip to Jacksonville because the team thought his lungs might be endangered if forced to take a flight. Damn.

    ... I thought the Titans should have played for overtime.

    ... Cam Newton did the damn thing on Sunday in Philly.

    ... It's crazy to me that Terrell Suggs is still playing in the NFL. I was 23 years old the first time I heard the name of the former five-star tight end prospect. I'm now 42.

    ... Joe Hart having five goals shoot past him 24 hours after Man City named a training pitch after him was some cold stuff, man.

    ... I can't believe I'm saying this, but... Wayne Rooney for MLS MVP.

    ... Check out this American youth star...



    ... Once upon a time, Kent Benson was two minutes into his NBA career when he elbowed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the mid-section.



    Welcome to the NBA, rookie.

    No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Favorite Concerts ...

    It occurred to me that I need to get out and see more music in 2018, even if having four-year old twins sometimes makes such a thing hard to pull off.

    But, it has to happen.

    As it stands, here's my personal list of all-time favorite concerts that I've attended.

    10. Toni Price at the Continental Club (1995)
    9. Bon Jovi at the Frank Erwin Center (1997)
    8. Bruce Springsteen at the Austin Music Hall (1996)
    7. Norah Jones and Amos Lee at The Backyard (2005)
    6. Joe Ely (with Teye) at Stubbs (1996)
    5. Whitney Houston at Frank Erwin Center (1997)
    4. Rolling Stones at Zilker Park (2006)
    3. The Eagles at DKR (1995)
    2. Paul McCartney at Frank Erwin Center (2003)
    1. 2 Live Crew and the Geto Boys at Austin Coliseum (1989)

    No. 10 – And Finally...


    I have to get out more. Forget asking how many of these joints I've actually been to, it might save more time to ask me which of these I've heard of.

     
    1 Ketchum, Oct 21, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2018
  2. texhorns12

    texhorns12 Well-Known Member
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    Man. That’s a tough pick. I’d like to end the season on a good win rather than lose by 30+ to nick Saban though. Tough choice.
     
  3. HkmTxsLnghrns

    HkmTxsLnghrns Well-Known Member
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    Well done
     
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  4. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    Anyone who chooses to miss the playoffs is a loser in all aspects of life.
     
  5. daflonghorn

    daflonghorn Bleedin' burnt orange since before I was born
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    Like, 4th?
     
  6. JinSOTEX

    JinSOTEX Pissing people off since 2004
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    This.

    It’s simply stunning more than a few on
    This site would prefer Texas misses out. Disgusting
     
  7. MB-HORNS

    MB-HORNS SUPERFAN
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    They're at a different level. It actually has made CFB boring as a whole.
     
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  8. MB-HORNS

    MB-HORNS SUPERFAN
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    I would never not want us to make the playoffs but lets be honest getting your ass kicked by Bama would not be fun.
     
  9. hrc

    hrc Well-Known Member
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    2008 team would have whipped UF. That team was superior to 2009 team.
     
  10. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    Beating Alabama’s ass sure as hell would be.
     
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  11. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    It's 58-42 with nearly 2,000 votes.
     
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  12. Horn Player

    Horn Player I am Level 1
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    I remember having the same exact thought after we won the Fiesta
     
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  13. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    I dunno. Texas peaked in October that year. Barely survived Ohio State.
     
  14. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    @Ketchum would have picked the option that led to the 1980 US Hockey team going directly to the bronze medal game.
     
  15. drunk randoke

    drunk randoke Ok cool. Hook 'em
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    Gotch was an allsome story.
     
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  16. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    lol. I'm on your side on this one.
     
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  17. CrowUT1

    CrowUT1 Well-Known Member
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    Playoffs....give me the at bat to make something happen
     
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  18. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    The world is comprised of more losers than winners.
     
  19. MB-HORNS

    MB-HORNS SUPERFAN
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    I guess the entire Bama team could come down with food poisoning.
     
  20. AnwarsFedora

    AnwarsFedora Well-Known Member
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    Damn rookie.

    https://texas.forums.rivals.com/threads/hypothetical-scenario.390222/
     
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  21. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    You picked option A with a chance to win. So no, we’re not on the same side.
     
  22. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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  23. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    I did not pick option A.
     
  24. AnwarsFedora

    AnwarsFedora Well-Known Member
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    I'm over here wondering if we talked to the same guy =)roll
     
  25. CS

    CS Social Justice Warrior
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    I told him I'd pick option A if you could tell me that Texas might havea 5-percent chance of winning the game and only a 95-percent chance of a 30+ point loss.
     
  26. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    typo. I'll correct. The sentence actually makes sense if it's correct.
     
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  27. deserthorn1955

    deserthorn1955 Well-Known Member
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    If you don’t want to get t he CFPs over the consolation prize you are a wimp.
     
  28. A-Town 90

    A-Town 90 Uh, Paul in uh.....
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    The difference is in 2008 there was no playoff. Bama’ is so far ahead of everyone else, you can say you made the playoff as an upstart, and lost to one of the best teams of all time. Take it a step further, what if you take the game into the fourth qtr and only lose by 17?

    Just go 1-0, the rest will take care of itself
     
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  29. TimmyLonghorn

    TimmyLonghorn Well-Known Member
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    Has anybody seen Duvernay break a tackle and run???

    2 Live Crew and MC Hammer were the best concerts. .
     
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  30. NorthernHorn

    NorthernHorn Well-Known Member
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    Next year Jake Smith will equal Rodale Moore for Texas.
     
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  31. Alfordjm

    Alfordjm Thanks for comin’ out
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    [/QUOTE]

    My friend's contention was with hindsight, he believed the Longhorns were better off winning the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State and missing the championship game altogether than making the national title game and losing to Tim Tebow's Gators based on these three factors.

    [/QUOTE]
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. HugeTexFan

    HugeTexFan Well-Known Member
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    If the results are pre-determined, then it's an easy pick to take the win to end the season, but that's not how it works. I would take the risk of the 30 point loss to Bama every day because it also comes with the chance that we beat those bastards. Given that's impossible to know the outcome ahead of time (even if a certain outcome is likely), I will always take the chance. Herman has shown an ability to get his teams up for big games when he's an underdog. Bring on Bama baby!
     
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  33. great horndini

    great horndini Well-Known Member
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    Would the "major bowl game" be the Rose Bowl? That might sway my vote.
     
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  34. PaperChampion

    PaperChampion Well-Known Member
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    I'd choose the one that is best for recruiting. I just don't know which one would be the best. Do you, Ketch?
     
  35. Ketchum

    Ketchum Resident Blockhead
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    I think a case can be made for both, which might make it a push in recruiting terms.
     
  36. danlaw08

    danlaw08 Well-Known Member
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    I would hate losing to Bama and ending the season on a down note. However, it might be good for the players to play against that level of competition. Iron sharpens iron. re: recruiting. If it was lose to Bama in the playoffs or beat Georgia in a bowl, I would be very tempted to beat Georgia to see if we could peel off some of their 5 stars.
     
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  37. bkrichmd1

    bkrichmd1 Well-Known Member
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    That was a good contention. We came out well in that. But this year Bama is seriously something pretty special with Tua. Having said that I’m not sure we’d get blown out. Saban’s defenses have been vunersble to mobile QB’s. But we’ll never know most likely.
     
  38. MB-HORNS

    MB-HORNS SUPERFAN
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    Jake appears to be a real stud.... 4.3 speed is legit..
     
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  39. D_End37

    D_End37 Well-Known Member
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    In 2008 Texas beat #1 OU by 10 points on a neutral field with 1 week to prepare. #1 Florida beat OU by 10 points in what was essentially a home game for Florida with 32 days to prepare.

    I don’t buy the argument that Texas wouldn’t have beaten Florida because they barely beat Ohio State. Texas had no desire to play in that Fiesta Bowl, and Ohio State wanted that win BADLY.
     
  40. Horn Player

    Horn Player I am Level 1
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    Some of my favorite concerts I’ve been to in Austin

    1. U2 (1988) Erwin Center - likely the best concert I’ve been to
    2. The Blues Travelers (1995) Austin Music Hall - phenomenal encore after encore and went until nearly 3am IIRC - the smaller venue and non-stop music made it an epic event
    3. Hootie & The Blowfish (1996 ?) Southpark Meadows outdoors w/ rain - I do remember wet white tees everywhere including my gf at the time - was one of the more fun and entertaining concerts I’ve ever been to
    4. The Eagles - History of the Eagles (2015) - not a bad song - glad I got to see them while Glenn Frey was still with us
    5. There are others way back like Van Halen, etc but I truly miss The Ugly Americans (and The Scabs) - I honestly don’t remember how many times I saw them. Always a good show and met Sandra Bullock at Antoine’s (might’ve been just Bob Schneider) - overall she’s a pretty cool chick
     
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