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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The contract for my No.1 expires soon)

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
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When we look at how the 2016 Texas Longhorns reached their 3-4 record through seven games, a lot of the how isn’t very surprising.

The sloppiness? Not surprising. The lack of attention to detail? Not surprising. The bad tackling? Not surprising. The shaky in-game strategy? Not surprising.

Honestly, the list goes on and on and on and on …

Yet, in the aftermath of Saturday’s loss in Manhattan, there’s one lasting image that is not only surprising, but I’m not sure I can begin to properly explain, as it’s that inexplicable. The sight of Malik Jefferson standing on the sideline in the second half, alone in his thoughts after being “rotated” right out of the game in the second half was as symbolic for the failures of this season as anything else, but it begged the following question.

What the hell has happened to the Class of 2015?

Remember that group? The one that seemed to plant the foundation for all of Charlie Strong’s future success? The one that provided starters at running back, wide receiver, left tackle, guard, middle linebacker, both cornerbacks and even the punter?

What the hell has happened to this group?

One of Strong’s two major calling cards is his ability to develop players, as evidenced by the number of NFL players he produced at Louisville, and the expectation this season was that the players that were forced into duty a year ago would certainly be better after a full year under the watch of their head coach.

However, with games left in the regular season, the foundation of the Strong Era has cracks all over the place.

Consider the following:

* Big 12 Preseason Defensive Player of the Year Malik Jefferson has struggled to the point he might not even be the team’s second-best linebacker.
* Big 12 preseason first-team cornerback Davante Davis is buried on the bench.
* Big 12 preseason first-team guard Patrick Vahe has had an up game or two, but mostly he’s been perfectly average.
* Cornerback Holton Hill, who also earned some all-Big 12 buzz coming into this season, is buried on the bench.
* Wide receiver John Burt, who was expected to be one of the Big 12’s top playmaking downfield threats, is buried on the bench.
*Safety DeShon Elliott, who was expected to emerge as an impact player in the back end, hasn’t been consistent enough to win a job.

Yes, Connor Williams has improved, Anthony Wheeler has emerged as a solid player and Michael Dickson is kicking the hell out of the ball, but there’s no getting away from the fact that too many of the players that were supposed to lead this team forward have taken steps backward.

Big steps backward.

How is it even possible that Jefferson, Davis and Hill, the three best players on the defense coming into the season, have fallen off a cliff? It defies all logic that this has happened to so many players all at once, but perhaps if we look hard enough, it does make some sense.

After all, much of Charlie Strong’s three seasons in Austin has defied logic, so perhaps it really is natural that one of the skills that helped him land the Texas job in the first place has betrayed him in his biggest moments of need this season.

When you think of it like that, it actually isn’t surprising at all.

No. 2– Who’s on deck?

While there’s a part of me that feels a little uneasy about discussing replacements for Charlie Strong when there’s still five games left in the season, there’s really not any getting away from the fact that most of the thirst on this site moving forward this season is going to center on what happens AFTER the 2016 season and not during from here on out.

With so much discussion focused on the future, I might as well go on the record. Assuming there is a change at head coach after the season, here’s a look at my personal list of favorites to replace Charlie Strong.

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1. John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): His contract expires after the end of this season and the Ravens do not look like a playoff team at this point. With a Super Bowl ring on his finger, he could be looking for a new challenge in his career and if the Longhorns wanted to break the bank, Texas could make him an offer Baltimore might not want to match. He’s making seven million a year in Baltimore. For those wondering if he would do well in college, I’ve told this story before, but I was around him for an hour in Baltimore a couple years ago when he spoke to 100 of the best high school players in the country and by the time he was done, he had those kids eating out of the palm of his hands. You’d never have to worry about a team being well-coached and not being great at the details ever again. Be bold and dare to be great.

2. Chip Kelly (San Francisco): The constant speculation about his return to college football won’t go away and if there’s an interest in a return, Texas should at least explore it. Yes, he’s got a little bit of dirt on him after his stint at Oregon, but he’s in a tier just below Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. That’s it.

3. Chris Peterson (Washington): It’s possible he’d be impossible to pry away from the Huskies, especially in the middle of what might be a special season, but if you’re Texas, I think you have to make the call and potentially make him say no. The man is regarded as all class and he’s a proven winner.

4. Dabo Swinnney (Clemson): I used to be a Dabo Doubter, but he’s moved himself up into the near-elite category of coaches with his recruiting and on-field performance over the last few years.

5. Tom Herman (Houston): All of the pieces seem to be there, but if you’re Texas, are you really going to hire another non-power five coach with a very short record of success as a head coach? He recruits lights out, he’s a great offensive mind/developer of quarterbacks and he checks a lot of boxes, but he does not come with a guarantee on the box.

6. Gary Patterson (TCU): He’s the coach that Charlie Strong is supposed to be.

7. Chad Morris (SMU): A future power five coach at some point down the road. He coached circles around Herman this weekend.

No. 3 – A quick question about Tom Herman...

Are we sure he’s ready for the job at THE University of Texas? Absolutely sure?

I think he’s a bright star in the coaching profession, but I’d be lying if I said that clubbings by Navy and SMU have me wondering if he needs a little more seasoning. Hell, I’m not even counting the fact that Tulsa pushed his team to the brink last week.

I mean … Houston isn’t even in the AP Top 25 after losing two of its last three games by 28 combined points.

Are we sure?

No. 4– The state of recruiting ...

With the commitment of Lancaster wide receiver Omar Manning to TCU on Friday night, it’s time to acknowledge another elephant in a room full of them.

Charlie Strong’s recruiting is in the dumps.

With the team turning into another losing outfit and questions about Strong’s job security, there is absolutely zero momentum for the Longhorns right now in the one area everyone has felt pretty good about the last two recruiting years.

In one of the deepest years in the state of Texas in a very long time when it comes to top-level talent, the Longhorns appear to be on the outside looking in with all four of the five-star talents that exist (Marvin Wilson, Walker Little, Baron Browning and Jeffrey Okudah) and the entire top 10 in the current Rivals Texas Top 100.

Outside of Sam Ehlinger, I’m not sure the Longhorns are on pace to land anyone else in the current top 20 of that list. Depending on what you think of Lagaryonn Carson’s status as a prospect and the outlook of Plano East linebacker Anthony Hines, the Longhorns might be on pace to have two players show up on campus in August from the state’s top 30.

Yes, Strong and his staff have been known to flip guys late in the process, but even if he somehow kept his job after the season, it’s hard to see at the moment how he could repeat history again with the cloud that his job status would carry going into National Signing Day and beyond.

Six weeks ago, Texas looked primed for a massive 2017 class.

Six weeks later, the volcano full of lava has been extinguished.
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No. 5– Scattershooting on the Longhorns ...

… D’Onta Foreman’s over/under for rushing yards against Texas Tech has to be set at about 250, right?

… Is D’Onta Foreman a better college running back than Jamaal Charles was?

… If I had told you that Shane Buechele would have a 3:1 touchdown/interception ratio seven weeks into the season, you’d have probably thought the Longhorns would be competing for a Big 12 title.

… It might take 60 to beat Baylor this weekend, especially with the Bears having two weeks to prepare for a game you just know they want very, very, very badly. Charlie Strong has done a good job against the Bears in his first two attempts, but this does not look like a good matchup at all on paper.

… Baylor wide receiver K.D. Cannon is a guy who should keep Strong up at nights this week. He likes playing his corners deep and I would guess they play even deeper this week.

… Breck Hager is seventh in the Big 12 in sacks per game, while Naashon Hughes ranks ninth. No other Longhorn ranks in the top 20. Hager is also tied for 14th in tackles for loss in the Big 12, the only Longhorn in the top 20.

… Texas doesn’t have a single player ranked in the top 20 of the Big 12 in pass breakups.

… If it comes down to a kick this weekend between the Bears and Longhorns, expect it to be missed. Both teams rank in the bottom three of the Big 12 in field goal percentage.

No. 6 – Buy or sell …

BUY or SELL: Texas football is bowl eligible this year?

(Sell) I’ll give them Kansas, but I think Texas loses to Baylor and West Virginia, which means the Longhorns would have to sweep Texas Tech in Lubbock and TCU at home to end the season. I think they might win one of those last two, but I can’t given them the benefit of the doubt right now.

BUY or SELL: Sterlin Gilbert is given the interim role when Strong is fired on Monday?

(Sell) I have yet to hear that anything other than Strong finishing out the season is on the table. If that means watching him crawl to the finish line, so be it.

BUY or SELL: It's more important to the resurgence of this program to hire an experienced, top level AD immediately, than to dismiss Strong mid-season?

(Buy) I’ve been a proponent of hiring a world-class AD throughout 2016 for more than a year because you could see this potential situation with Strong coming from a mile away. While it might be important, it’s not going to happen. Expect there to be a complete hiring process next spring.

BUY or SELL: Someone else besides Herman is head coach for Texas next year?

(Buy) I’ll take the field.

BUY or SELL: The new coach means that we are out of the Browning, Hines, Wilson, & Little recruits?

(Sell) It merely depends on who the new coach is. It would be unlikely that a new coach could swoop in and change the direction of their recruitments, but not impossible.

BUY or SELL: The first emotion Charlie feels when he is officially let go is relief?

(Buy) I thought he looked less like a frustrated coach on Saturday after the game and more like a coach running out of gas.

BUY or SELL: We are damaging the assistant coaches prospects for positions with other teams next year by not terminating Strong now?

(Sell) My 20 years in the industry have told me time and time again that if an assistant coach believes he won’t be retained, he’ll be working the networking angles for his next job before he ever loses his job. Those dudes will be fine. They might not make anywhere near as much money as they are making now, but they’ll be good boy scouts the entire way through by being prepared.

BUY or SELL: John Gruden would listen if Texas came calling?

(Buy) I think he would listen, but I’m not sure what that means. What I am fairly sure of is that he would never give up his current job, which is one of the best gigs in sports.

BUY or SELL: It is typical that football players can really like their head coach and be publicly supportive of him even though they are underperforming and losing games?

(Buy) Pretty standard stuff.

No. 7 – College Football randomness ...

… If I had a vote that mattered …

1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Ohio State
7. West Virginia
8. Nebraska
9. Texas A&M
10. Wisconsin

… Big 12 Power Poll

1. West Virginia
2. Oklahoma
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State
5. TCU
6. Kansas State
7. Texas Tech
8. Texas
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas

… Ohio State lost a game it had zero business losing this weekend and yet its game with Michigan looms so large in a few weeks that a playoff bid still exists if it just handles its business.

… I never thought I’d see the day that James Franklin was on better footing in Happy Valley than Charlie Strong has in Austin.

… Alabama is clearly the best team in college football for my money, but the loss of Eddie Jackson is going to sting.

… Just watch this and pray for Deontay Anderson’s future children.


… Michigan vs. Washington would make for one hell of a national semi-final if it went down that way.

… Nebraska’s reckoning is coming in the next two weeks - at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. Good luck with that, Huskers.

… Lamar Jackson is going to win the Heisman. I’m not even sure who is No. 2 right now.

… The Oklahoma/Texas Tech game was the most Big 12 game ever. Pat Mahomes threw for 734 yards and lost.

… Is Gus Malzahn going to save his job?

… Did Les Miles really deserve to lose because he lost to two borderline top 10-15 teams by a combined seven points?

… Houston is going to need Navy to lose twice just to get into the American Athletic Conference championship game.

No. 8 – Is anyone else in a crazy fantasy league?

Let me set the stage for you in the quickest way possible.

Earlier this week, in what is easily the most competitive fantasy league I’ve ever been in, the following trade happened between the worst team in our league and one of the best teams, as the bad team traded Cam Newton (on a bye) to the good team for Cameron Meredith.

A few league members raised serious questions about the trade, given that Meredith was a waiver-wire add two weeks earlier and was being traded for one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the game.

Smack talk was exchanged, declarations were made (the owner that traded for Meredith claimed he would be a WR1 this weekend and possibly beyond), more smack talk was exchanged and by the end of Thursday night, every member of the league was called toxic and Meredith’s owner announced he was quitting the league.

Seriously, my league is the Keeping up with the Kardashians of fantasy football leagues.

I’m curious … are we all just bat-shit crazy or are some of you in leagues where there’s virtually zero sanity?

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

… Scattershooting on week seven in the NFL:

a. Shame on the entire league for this Josh Brown story. How in the world could that possibly happen? How could the Giants protect him? How could so many members of that organization have enabled him? Absolutely disgusting.

b. How bad must Jared Goff be in practice that he can’t beat out Case Fitzpatrick … er …. Keenum for the quarterback job?

c. Jay Ajayi was a one-man wrecking crew, both against the Bills and my fantasy team.

d. A.J. Green is so good. Can you imagine him with a top 10 quarterback?

e. Poor Geno Smith.

f. Sam Bradford sure as hell wasn’t worth a first round pick on Sunday. My God, he was hopeless against the Eagles.

g. Dan Quinn is a meathead.

h. Oh, Gronk...



… I hope they serve beer in heaven and I hope Harry Caray super indulged himself on Saturday night after the Cubs won the pennant. Sorry, Cleveland, America is rooting for the Cubs.

… How good was Kyle Hendricks on Saturday night? He deserved to stay in the game in the eighth inning.

... Right on, FC Dallas. I don't know what the MLS playoffs have in store for this team, but this team has had a hell of a season. That was a gutsy draw on Sunday in L.A.

… Jose had this one coming to him. Man, you know that crap-sandwich served up by his old team tasted bad.


… Thank you, Southampton. Thank you, Bournemouth. Thank you, Middlesbrough.

… In Klopp, I trust. The Reds are surging.

No. 10 - And finally …

I feel like I’ve been completely unplugged from all new music in 2016 and I need an injection of newness.

What’s the best album you’ve heard this year? Turn me on to something.
 
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Well said. :)

Although not my wish list of coaches it's hard not to get excited about a new head coach of football. John Harbaugh at least is on my list.
 
Texas won't touch chip Kelly after having a hand in turning in what he did at Oregon IMO. I also don't think he wants to deal with college as some claim he prefers the NFL over having to mess with recruting again.

I also think he would be an absolute disaster at Texas from the point of what this job brings off the field. He's one of the worst in dealing with media and he hated boosters at Oregon. Hell some say they don't even want him back
 
@Ketchum

Fast forward a month and some change from now. The clock reads 0:00 after the TCU game. What goes down over the next 48-72 hours in Austin?

Second, question how does a timeframe on a John Harbaugh go down? Their final game isn't until January 1st.
 
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Clay Travis, a man who's no Texas fan, has stated many times he thinks Chip Kelly would KILL it here at Texas. I think he has a credible point.

I'm more open to this, because Texas might need a more proven coach than Tom Herman right not. I'm not anti Herman at all. I'd get behind that hire with excitement, but doesn't Texas need to hire a coach with more experienced success?

I think if Texas can hire any of the top 5 you listed, they ought to feel pretty solid, especially it it's any of the top 4. Herman is less experienced, but he's a detail-orientated coach, believes in physicality and know the recruiting landscape - all pluses.
 
i saw that run by fournette live and my gawd it was brutal. what he did to Anderson should have been a manslaughter charge
 
Biggest shock to me this year is our back 7 on defense. I thought our CBs would be a huge strength and our LBs would be better than solid. Malik was terrible Saturday. He gets blown off the ball time and again. He needs to be playing on the edge rushing the passer. Use his elite athleticism.
 
After Iceman's analysis on specifically profiled NFL coaches successfully transitioning to college ball, I'm all in on John H. Timing is everything and assuming CS is relieved asap after the season and Harbaugh is made available in December, well, "let's get it on."
 
Clay Travis, a man who's no Texas fan, has stated many times he thinks Chip Kelly would KILL it here at Texas. I think he has a credible point.

I'm more open to this, because Texas might need a more proven coach than Tom Herman right not. I'm not anti Herman at all. I'd get behind that hire with excitement, but doesn't Texas need to hire a coach with more experienced success?

Dabo reminds me a younger modern day Mack Brown. I doubt he'd leave Clemson.
Are people going to be ok if LSU gets Herman and he kicks ass there? While it's not guaranteed TOS doesn't expect The Texas search go past him as of yesterday. Basically had it a likely short process

Kelly as a pure coach is great but the Texas job is so much more. I also can't see he admin getting past the cheating
 
Are people going to be ok if LSU gets Herman and he kicks ass there? While it's not a guaranteed TOS doesn't expect The Texas search go past him as of yesterday. Basically had it a likely short process

Kelly as a pure coach is great but the Texas job is so much more. I also can't see he admin getting past the cheating
If Texas has Herman number one on their list and hires him, I would have ZERO issue with that. Anybody from Ketch's top 5 would be fine and dandy to me.
 
John Harbaugh is at the top of my list. I believe he is a better coach than his brother. I'm pretty much on board with vetting the coaches you have ahead of Herman before going with Herman. I share the same concerns about lack of experience for THIS job. I may be completely wrong, but I'd feel better about a Dabo or a Chip if we don't get Harbaugh.
What kind of 1/1000 chance at that are you willing to make by passing up Herman et al to wait till January and try it?
 
Harbaugh is interesting but not sure he is a realistic hire. He is a solid pro coach and if Baltimore doesn't re-up him, he will have other NFL offers.

No Jimbo? I think he would definitely listen.
 
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