Full transparency: This column started out to be one thing and turned into something of a cousin of what was originally intended.
As I was brainstorming for a lede for this week's column on Sunday afternoon, I kept coming back to a comment that our esteemed Anwar Richardson wrote about Texas starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger in his Sunday Pulpit.
"Anybody who does not think Ehlinger is the top five quarterback entering this season needs to reevaluate their football IQ. I do not expect Ehlinger to compete for a Heisman, but after Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence, he is arguably the nation’s third-best passer."
While I'm a guy that believes Ehlinger can be a top-five quarterback in the country this year, a case can be made that he wasn't the third-best quarterback in the Big 12 for a large portion of the 2019 season (there are several extenuating circumstances to this, the least of which wasn't an injured rib or the coaching he received) and I certainly couldn't sign off on him being the third best "passer" in the country.
Reevaluate my football IQ?
Jackpot! Column idea!
Therefore, I began to build a thesis statement around the idea that the single biggest improvement that Sam Ehlinger needed to make in his senior season was the elimination of the bad games from his resume. As a junior in 2019, Ehlinger posted game ratings of less than 140.0 on five separate occasions during the course of a 12-game regular season.
vs. West Virginia (122.2)
vs. Oklahoma (114.8)
at TCU (99.1)
at Iowa State (137.1)
at Baylor (99.5)
UT's record in those five games? 1-4.
Obviously, it's easy to simply say that Ehlinger has to play better. Duh. Column over. What I wanted to display was that in order for the Longhorns to play as a playoff-level team was a direct comparison to the quarterback play being received by teams making the college football playoff in recent years, which turned out to be an idea that only partially works.
Yes, the four teams that made the playoffs in the 2019 season combined to have only three sub-140 game ratings from their starting quarterback in pre-playoff games, but Clemson made the playoffs in 2018 with Trevor Lawrence posting four such sub-140 game ratings, while Alabama also made it in 2018 with Tua Tagovailoa's three such games. In 2017, Alabama made the playoffs, despite Jalen Hurts posting five sub-140 game ratings in the regular season.
At that point, I just stopped with the idea of that comparison making the big picture point I wanted to make.
It turns out that something else caught my attention ... freaking Oklahoma.
While Hurts might have accounted for five below-average passing performances in a playoff run in 2017, he posted only one such game in his only season as a starter with the Sooners.
How about Kyler Murray in 2018?
Zero sub-140 game ratings in the regular season.
How about Baker Mayfield in 2017?
Zero sub-140 game ratings in the regular season.
How about Mayfield in 2016?
One game.
How about Mayfield in 2015?
Two games.
That's right. Over the course of the last five seasons, Oklahoma has dominated the Big 12 with five straight conference titles on the shoulders of quarterback play that averages 0.8 sub 140-game ratings per season.
Basically, Oklahoma has a poor quarterback game each year to match the amount of days that Santa has to work each year.
By comparison, Ehlinger has 17 such performances in his three-year career with the Longhorns thus far. In the last five seasons alone, the Longhorns have 37 such quarterback performances. Honestly, by the time I was done adding up Ehlinger's numbers with Shane Buechele's numbers, we were at 30 and that's without diving into the mess of a 2015 season.
37-4.
From an Oklahoma perspective, what's interesting about the five-year timeframe of success is that the last time the Sooners posted a disappointing season was back in 2014 when Trevor Knight posted seven sub-140 game scores during an 8-5 season that featured a 5-4 record in the Big 12. What happened following that "dismal" 8-5 season is that the Sooners hired Lincoln Riley and produced the five greatest consecutive seasons of quarterback play in the history of college football.
That's not hyperbole.
While the Longhorns have been an elevator ride at the quarterback performance side of things for the last five years, the team they are trying to dethrone has been better at the most important position in college team sports than anyone in the history of the sport. Say what you want about Hurts, but his 2019 "passer rating" was 22 points higher than Colt McCoy's historic 2008 season and that might only be the fourth best season at the quarterback position that the Sooners have had since 2015.
What will be interesting to see is if things change at all as the Sooners transition from three straight upperclassmen at the quarterback position for each of the last four seasons and adjust to redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler taking over at the position with only three games and 11 career pass attempts under his belt.
Is OU destined for a massive decline or is Riley so much of a quarterback coaching witch that the normal rules of young quarterback play doesn't apply to his pupils?
Just how much of a decline needs to take place before we can say that a massive opportunity exists for the Longhorns, a team that is 7-12 in the last 19 games when its quarterbacks have posted sub 140 game scores?
If Oklahoma has only a modest drop to the type of numbers posted by the youngest versions of Lawrence, Tagovailoa and Hurts, the Longhorns might only need modest improvements from Ehlinger in his final season to neutralize the single-biggest advantage that Oklahoma has had over Texas in this recent five-year stretch.
Massive improvement from Ehlinger, the type that would warrant calling him a top-five quarterback in the country, would possibly mean that the Sooners might be on the verge of being on the other side of this existing quarterback fence for the first time in half a decade.
Of course, there's a lot of ifs and buts in this equation, but frankly it seems like the obvious story of the year to keep an eye on in the Big 12.
No. 2 - Something I can't stress enough ...
You won't be getting a lot of discussion about civil unrest in America this week in this column because I don't think there's anything that I can add that wasn't said in the TicketCity Podcast or could possibly be better than what Anwar wrote on Sunday morning.
That being said, from a Texas football perspective, I think the most important thing that has happened in the last week is that Tom Herman has emerged as a bigger leader of the men in his locker room than he has ever been at any other point in his career at Texas.
Herman listened to his players. Herman fought for his players. Herman turned down speaking appearances on what would have been a global platform for his players. Herman marched with his players.
In a world where flinching or pausing in the face of a national uprising that matches some of the more historical uprisings in the last 100 years of our nation would have been perfectly understandable. A lot of coaches waited almost a week before taking action. Some have come under attack for taking so long to respond.
Herman?
His swift, immediate show of incredibly strong support for his players has become the role model response across the country that is being used to contrast other responses that have felt half-hearted or going through the motions.
When the dust settles on this story, college athletes across the country will remember who was down listening and taking action, and they'll remember who was about making a press release for the sake of making a press release a week into what has turned into a generation moment. Herman will be remembered for volunteering to be on the front lines of this story at a time when it wasn't exactly proven to be safe for himself to launch himself into the narrative.
You don't have to love him involving himself into such a hot political story, but you have to love him putting his money where his mouth is when he goes into the living rooms of young men and tells their parents he'll be more than a football coach for them.
As one of the great nitpickers of Herman's work (I write a weekly column with 10 different subjects each week for goodness sakes!), I think it's important to take a moment and give a huge attaboy when he knocks it out of the park in Barry Bonds on steroids style on such a critical issue and in such a pivotal moment.
Well done, Tom.
No. 3 - Back to the subject of Ehlinger for a moment ...
Here's how I would personally rate the top three returning quarterbacks in college football.
1. Justin Fields (Ohio State)
2. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
3. Ian Book (Notre Dame)
Once you get beyond those three, there's UNC's Sam Howell (38 touchdowns as a true freshman), USC's Kedon Slovis (3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns as a true freshman), Arizona State's Jayden Daniels and a guy like Iowa State's Brock Purdy (among a host of others).
Would I really take most of those guys over Ehlinger? Would I take any of those guys over Ehlinger?
Maybe Anwar was right.
Meanwhile, here's how PFF has the quarterbacks ranked ...
No. 4 - A moment of sunshine ...
One of the thoughts I had kicking around in my head this weekend was the concept of least appreciated young players in the program.
The one name I kept coming back to was redshirt freshman offensive lineman Tyler Johnson, who was rated as the No. 97 player in the nation by Rivals.com, but was someone that I thought was closer to a top 50-60 national rating. The difference in that slight little bit of nuance is that if I'm right, Johnson belongs in the second tier of recruiting prospects (just below five stars), a group that develops into high-level NFL prospects at 2:1 margins over the tier in which Rivals slotted him.
Basically, I had him rated at a level that's higher than any other offensive linemen in the entire program.
My expectations are that he's eventually going to be a high-level multi-year starter that plays on Sundays, but right now he's just some kid that has made more Big 12 honor rolls than he's played in actual games. Of course, it's possible that he's exactly the kind of player that might have been on the tips of tongues had there been a spring football season.
For the moment, he's just a guy that I kind of feel like there isn't enough excitement about.
(Note: I should mention that the national rankings of Johnson were kind of all over the national Top 100 map. ESPN had him rated higher than I did, listing him as a five-star and the No. 16 overall player in the country. 247 had him ranked as the No. 46 overall prospect in the country, which is the area I would have had him ranked in, while Rivals had him at No. 97.)
No. 5 - This week 10 years ago...
That's right, happy 10th anniversary to the original Big 12 Missile Crisis!
No. 6 - A few 2021 and 2022 recruiting scattershots ...
... In all of the discussion about where I ranked Southlake Carroll quarterback Quinn Ewers in the debut LSR 2022 rankings, a couple of truths got lost in the clutter, so let's just reset the conversation. Just to be clear, I have him rated as the state's top quarterback, a national top 100-level prospect and the only quarterback in Texas from the 2022 class on what would be the 5.9 (mid four star) Rivals scale. We're talking really, really fine margins here ... possibly the difference in saying he's the No. 45 player in the nation of the No. 78 player in the nation.
... When I mention that I think the 2022 offensive line class in the state of Texas has a chance to compete with the 2021 offensive line class, know that there's no hyperbole in that statement. The only thing keeping the entire top 3 in 2022 from being made up entirely of offensive linemen in the first release of the rankings is possibly the best sophomore cornerback prospect I've ever seen from this state. There are four other offensive linemen from the 2022 class that I gave serious consideration to ranking in the top 10-15. That's not normal.
... As soon as college coaches can get on the road, new Texas linebackers coach Coleman Hutzler needs to get out to Lubbock asap. For whatever reason, the Longhorns just haven't had any person contact with Kobie McKenzie (per his dad) and when you consider that he might be the best prospect that the Lubbock area has produced since Brian Jones in the mid-1980s, Texas probably needs to have at least attempted to set up some sort of a Zoom call or something by now. Just saying ...
... Keep an eye on (2022) Sachse quarterback Alex Orji. While there are a couple of kids in the 2022 class that could emerge as national quarterback prospects, Orji is one of the guys that could eventually be regarded as a national top-50 level recruit. He's very raw and hugely talented. Oklahoma has offered. Check out his sophomore highlights.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I'm expecting to buy this question in 2021.
(Buy) You didn't ask this in the form of an actual Buy or Sell question, but it's easy enough to display without much work. These are the guys I think are definites.
(Buy) OK, here we go.
1. Sell
2. Buy
3. Buy
4. Sell
5. Sell
6. Sell
7. Sell
8. Sell
(Buy) I've decided that I'm sticking to the old school No. 1 rule in recruiting ... always go with the mom. Does this look like a woman that will want her kids playing three states away when she can take this exact picture over and over again for the next 4-5 years?
(Sell) Maybe. Quite possibly. But, I don't KNOW that for sure.
(Buy) If you tell me Sam plays injury-free in 2020, I like his chances of being in New York in December ... or in New York via Zoom in December ... whichever the case may be.
(Buy) I don't see how it couldn't.
(Sell) No way IMO.
(Sell) That's a little ambitious for a unit that didn't have spring workouts and plays in a sport that favors the offense.
(Sell) More like 5-8.
(Sell) I think it will play a factor, but I don't know if I will go so far as to say "tipping" factor. That seems a little strong without proof at this point.
(Buy) Eddie Reese has to be good for at least one.
(Buy) The buzz around him as a player seems to be building.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... I didn't buy UFC 250 this weekend. I just watched for live updates and highlights on Orangebloods and Twitter. If it hadn't been an ESPN+ deal, I probably would have forked over the money to watch it on cable.
... Nine days away from the start of the Premier League. Thank you, Lord.
... It's funny how little interest I had in German football with the announcement that Timo Werner was almost certainly going to Chelsea. Bah-humbug!
... The NFL players forced Roger Goodell into a spot where he had to say the words "Black Lives Matter" on camera. I have zero commentary to add. I'm just astonished it actually happened. If you had told me that such a thing would be possible on May 8, I would have laughed your butt out of the room.
... I really can't wait to see what Kevin Durant has left in the tank when he gets back to playing NBA basketball later in the year.
... Man, MLB better figure it out fast because there's about to be so much stuff happening all at once that we're not even going to notice if baseball wants to take itself down the rabbit hole.
... Amanda Nunez has knocked out Ronda Rousey, Holly Holm and Cyborg. Just knocked them out. She's run off 11 straight wins and hasn't lost since Charlie Strong's first loss as a Texas coach. Respect.
... Sean O'Malley might be worth the price of admission in his next fight and surely Dana White has to know that.
... Golf returns this weekend. I'm down.
... Once upon a time, I used to dig on NASCAR a little. I even had a favorite driver (Ricky Rudd). But, I haven't watched it in years and haven't even considered it during a pandemic when no other sports are on. What the hell happened?
... For those that haven't seen or heard about the Topps Project 202
0, it's a collection of famous artists that put their spin on famous Topps baseball cards. It has taken the collecting hobby by storm. Among the examples.
No. 9 - The List: Prince ...
Prince would have been 62 this weekend. SIXTY-TWO.
That just makes me feel old, as I was eight when I saw Purple Rain alone in a theater in Waco and my life was never quite the same (shout out to Apollonia).
Not seeing him in concert is one of my biggest musical regrets and one of the biggest musical conquests that my wife gets to throw in my face.
Nevertheless, even if I've done an updated list of his once every couple of years or so ... we can't talk Prince enough.
Top 10 Prince Songs
10. I Would Die For You
9. Little Red Corvette
8. I Wanna Be Your Lover
7. Purple Rain
6. The Beautiful Ones
5. 1999
4. Kiss
3. Darling Nikki
2. Let's Go Crazy
1. When Doves Cry
Bonus Prince: After-Hours
10. Cream
9. Lady Cab Driver
8. ***** Control
7. Sexy MF
6. Bambi
5. Erotic City
4. Scandalous
3. Get Off
2. Do Me, Baby
1. Darling Nikki
No.10 - And finally...
I'm out of words. Time to watch the Bruce Lee 30 for 30.
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