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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The importance of Todd Orlando...)

Ketchum

Resident Blockhead
Staff
May 29, 2001
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Todd Orlando is the most valuable property that Tom Herman's football program holds.

Not the fancy new lockers. Not the support staff. Not the other eight assistant coaches combined.

It's Orlando.

Way back in November of 2016, I had a conversation with one of the most influential people in the entire University of Texas universe about the subject of Tom Herman potentially being the next Texas head coach in the event that Charlie Strong wasn't retained.

The theory on the attractiveness of a Herman hire was this:

a. The Texas offense was a disaster. By bringing in Herman, the thought was that Texas would have one of the nation's top offensive masterminds pulling the strings on that side of the ball.

b. If Herman was able to hold up his end of the bargain, an elite defensive coordinator would need to be paired with him.

The thinking was that those two things added together would translate to championships and it's pretty much the foundation of the decision to hire Herman.

With a fat raise on the way this off-season for his work and increased value on the open market, the Longhorns have created a universe for their top asset that will allow him to pull a Kirby Smart if he wants to - wait until the right head coaching job opens up and don't sweat the first job that opens up because it's kind of a decent opportunity.

Orlando turns 46 at some point this year and you know he'll want to be a head coach at some point if he can. It's the obvious next step in his evolution and I'm sure he'd prefer it happen sooner than later, but if you can make close to $2 million per year while waiting for a quality opportunity and not just an opportunity, well ... that's a hell of a consolation prize to massage any hurting lustful ambition.

While it's possible Orlando will stay in Austin for the next decade, perhaps earning as much as $20 million along the way, the smart money likely has him here in town for a season or two.

From my vantage point, it puts the pressure to Herman to step up the offense's game because the window he has with this potentially special coordinator gets smaller with every day that passes. The last thing this program can afford to have happen is to witness the offense finally get to where it needs to be at the exact moment as its ace defensive leader leaves town.

You can say that Herman can just go out and hire the best defensive coordinator in the country, but it's not always as easy as that. Just ask Texas A&M.

There's a very serendipitous thing about these things. Vince Lombardi had magic in a bottle in Green Bay and couldn't replicate it in Washington. Jimmy Johnson was a coaching god in Dallas and a mere mortal in Miami. Hell, look no further than the Manny Diaz experiment ... from budding rock star to fired in-season to almost remade again.

Timing and circumstances matter.

What Texas has in Orlando is lightening in a bottle, and all the money and ambition in the world can't automatically buy that.

So, when you have it, you better take advantage of it.

That's one of Herman's challenges in the next two years ... get all of the parts in this program working together at an elite-level in a way that allows you to take advantage of the serendipity. Texas has pulled this off before, but the "head-coaching-in-waiting" card isn't one that can be played in this instance.

The moment is now. It must be so.

No. 2 – Just for the record ...

My all-time Texas defensive coordinator rankings for the last quarter-century look like this.

1. Greg Robinson
2. Will Muschamp
3. Todd Orlando
4. Gene Chizik
5. Bull Reese

The work Robinson did with the 2004 and 2013 defenses was as good as any work any coach has ever done in this town. I think Orlando has a chance to end up in the No. 1 spot because I actually think he's a better coordinator than Muschamp, but he has to coach in some big games first.

No. 3 – Attaboy, Burnt Orange Daddy Warbucks ...

It's easy to take shots at the Texas administration during a stretch of time when the football program is in the worst rut in the history of the program, but I'm going to acknowledge a point that has been lost in the last decade or so.

For all of the failures in the program, committing resources on assistant coaches has never been one.

When Mack Brown needed a game-changer following the 2007 season, Texas went out and spent big bucks to bring Muschamp in. When the wheels were spinning in mud in the final years of Mack's regime, he had all the support he needed to go get whomever it was he needed to get. Hell, it was thought to be impossible to pull Bryan Harsin from Boise, but money talks and everything else walks, and Texas ponied up the money needed to pull it off.

When Charlie Strong requested silly sums for Vance Bedford and Shawn Watson, not one person blinked because no one wanted to ever hear that Strong didn't have the money to hire the staff he wanted.

When Herman needed $1.7 million this week just to make sure nothing happened with Orlando, he received instant backing.

The return on investment has often lacked significantly, but the investment is always there.

No. 4 – The elephant in the room ...
talk-about-the-white-elephant-in-the-room.png




You want to know the cold, hard truth about Kendal Briles?

He's been far more protected in the last two years by a flunking system and a good ol’ boy network that refuses to demand answers than any of the victims in the Baylor Rape Scandal ever were.

The purpose of the Pepper Hamilton verbal report was to protect the bad guys, of which there were many, out of pure self-interest. Transparency and accountability were never a goal and along the way, it has allowed almost everyone who WAS involved in what happened a clean getaway.

Multiple coaches and football staff members were involved in the cover-up of the Baylor scandal according to the Pepper Hamilton report. We not only know that, we know that Baylor protected them throughout the 2016 season by keeping them on staff ... because football. When you have men in a position of power and all they care about is winning football, what you come away with is a situation where zero accountability is demanded for really important things.

What on earth has Kendal Briles done in the last two years that would suggest he deserves the benefit of the doubt? Maybe Major Applewhite would like to give that question a go.

Just name one thing.

There's not one. Like his daddy before him, Kendal Briles is counting on our attention span being short enough that a gnat would blush to pave the path for him.

The truth is that none deserve the benefit of the doubt, least of which someone who worked shoulder to shoulder with Art for years, has been named in at least one lawsuit and hasn't so much as once denounced or owned an ounce of accountability for what happened in public fashion.

You're telling me that a guy seemingly covered with 2,000 pounds of dirt gets an unquestioned second chance without ever truly being forced to give up his first chance? Before he has to so much as answer a single question about his role? Before we know how deep his role was? Before it's clear that he needs to be on a football field over a jail cell?

G-O-O-D O-L B-O-Y N-E-T-W-O-R-K.

Upon learning of all the ways the system failed so many victims in Waco, we're failing them again by essentially allowing for the shady tactics used by Baylor to stand as a shield for the monsters and the final silenced word on the matter. As a society, we talk a good game, but we practice it like crap.

Imagine a world, where a coach that previously should have been fired for having sexual relations with a student trainer but wasn't, is given the latitude just a few years later to personally vouch for a friend of his who would be Evil Pig-Pen if placed in a Peanuts remake of the Baylor Rape Scandal?

Actually, you don't have to imagine a thing. Just open your eyes.


No. 5 – Five thoughts on the Army All-American Bowl ...

a. I can see Caden Sterns pushing Brandon Jones and every other safety on the roster for playing time if the junior-to-be doesn't start elevating his game because Sterns is the kind of player you almost have to have on the field and if he's not on the field, there better a bad mamma jamma in front of him doing bad mamma jamma things.

b. Jaylen Waddle is going to be hell on wheels at the next level. If that guy picks an offense that schemes for players with his skill set, he's going to be a college star. The only thing keeping him from being a five-star is the lack of five-star measurables, but the dude has five-star game.

c. Anthony Cook isn't a five-star. He was the third best UT DB signing at the game all week. Adjust some expectations.

d. I'm buying Jalen Green stock.

e. Junior Angilau needs a redshirt year unless he's developed at an elite level by an elite coach. I'm not saying my opinion can't be changed, I'm just saying he looked like the 95 percent of high school linemen that aren't quite ready for prime time when they arrive on a college campus.

No. 6 – The only men's basketball thought I have this weekend ...

Get better, Andrew Jones.

I wrote a bunch of stuff about the loss in Waco this weekend and deleted all of it when I found myself wondering whether this team has a chance without Jones.

As if that remotely matters more than his health and if he's been struggling to feel right for the last few weeks, I'm not sure we even need to bother with basketball discussion that involves him until he's feeling much better.

No. 7 – Ho-hum …

The Lady Longhorns handled some business on Sunday afternoon in Manhattan and while they have games against TCU and Kansas looming this week, it's pretty impossible to ignore what's slated a week from now.

Monday, January 15th - No. 1 UConn is coming to town.

My popcorn is already popping.

No. 8 – Buy or Sell …
buy_sell.jpg


BUY or SELL: Tom Herman's 10th assistant will be a home run hire?

(Sell) A true home run hire is a household name that usually don't even exist in reality. Barring the addition of a star offensive coordinator that bumps Tim Beck out of the program, I'm not sure that many would call whatever Herman does an actual home run. He's probably going to hire a position coach of some variety and most of those don't bring jaw-dropping resumes that you could dare label a home run.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman should concern himself with Lincoln Riley, as opposed to Jimbo Fisher?

(Sell) The head coach at The University of Texas must be able to concern himself with both at all times because he doesn't live in an "either/or" kind of world.

BUY or SELL: After one year of seeing Tom Herman in action; he wins a National Championship at Texas?

(Sell) This question kind of mystifies me.

BUY or SELL: In the aftermath of the Texas Bowl, Tom Herman now knows with certainty that he needs a new offensive play caller?

(Buy) Given that he called plays in the bowl game, but only after practicing in bowl workouts, I'd say he definitely understands the play-calling needs in the aftermath of the bowl game.

BUY or SELL: The 10th assistant is an offensive line coach?

(Buy) I think it's much, much more likely than a quarterback/play-calling OC. I'm starting to believe that we'll see more of Lincoln Riley in Tom Herman next year.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman redshirts both freshman QBs next year?

(Sell) I've already gone on the record that I believe one of the two freshmen will be the No .2 by October.

BUY or SELL: It doesn’t matter who are the top two quarterbacks going into next season. They will be compared to Applewhite and Simms by Ketchum?

(Buy) Ok, I'm sure at some point it'll be inevitable that the Applewhite/Simms reference is cited, but do I have a reputation for dragging that situation up that I don't know about? For the record, I looked at the archives of this column and the last time the Applewhite/Simms situation was specifically referenced was 11 months ago.

BUY or SELL: Elko is another home run hire by the Aggies?

(Sell) Stand-up double. Really strong hire, but not one that will move meters.

BUY or SELL: Baker Mayfield is to Lincoln Riley what Johnny Manziel was to Kevin Sumlin?

(Buy) Very, very possible. I mean ... Mayfield is the best player in the history of the program according to a lot of Sooners. We'll know more about Riley in 2018 than we ever learned in 2017.

BUY or SELL: Texas has a future NFL draft pick competing for its starting QB position this fall?

(Sell) No way I'm walking out on that limb at this point with zero evidence that this exists.

BUY or SELL: We make March Madness?

(Sell) It can't be done without Andrew Jones on the floor leading the way and he's not currently on the floor leading the way. I've been an optimist all season, but my optimism is slipping.

BUY or SELL: Shaka?

(Buy) Pure confirmation bias on my part. I can't defend his first three years very strongly, but I still believe in him. Next year will be a do-or-die season for him and I think it all starts to come together.

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Prediction: Alabama 24 Georgia 13

... The wildcard round of the NFL playoffs was about as entertaining as the college football bowl season leading up to the playoffs for about 10 hours... and then Carolina/New Orleans happened. What. A. Game.

... Drew Brees actually had a "No, Danny, no!" moment late in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure I would have believed it if I hadn't seen it.

... Derrick Johnson deserves better than to have played his entire career in Kansas City with quarterbacking play that can't get the team out of the Wildcard round.

... Speaking of Derrick Johnson...


... The Falcons look like a team capable of getting back to the Super Bowl.

... I think the possible handshake between Antonio Conte/Jose Mourinho the next time United and Chelsea play will be more highly anticipated than the Super Bowl.

... I couldn't have been alone in enjoying Nottingham Forest "dominate" Arsenal on Sunday.

... I wish nothing but the best for Philippe Coutinho, but I would have liked to have seen him end his tenure with a touch more class, with actions that didn't include putting in a transfer request the day before the season started or claiming two injuries just as two transfer windows opened or letting his entourage play games with the media for almost a year. At the end of the day, he quit on his team in the middle of the season and that truth won't go away quickly.

... Oh captain, my future captain.


No. 9B – Updated Oscar rankings …
mudbound.jpg


Had a chance to catch "Mudbound" this week while I was battling a nasty 24-hour flu of some kind and while the Netflix original isn't a feel-good movie for the family, it's one hell of a well-acted movie.

Any and all acting accolades in the coming weeks from the cast will be well-earned.

My updated Oscars rankings.

(Still need to see: All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Detroit, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, The Post and Roman J. Israel, Esq)

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. The Big Sick
5. Wind River
6. Mudbound
7. The Disaster Artist
8. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Get Out
10. Blake Runner 2049

Best Actor

1. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
2. Adam Driver (The Last Jedi)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
4. Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
5. Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Best Actress

1. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
3. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
4. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
5. Elizabeth Olson (Wind River)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
5. Rob Morgan (Mudbound)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
2. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
3. Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Director

1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
2. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
3. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
4. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

No. 10 – And Finally …

I wanted to end things with a special thanks to the folks over at Covert Chevrolet/Ford in Hutto for being the latest partner to join our family at Orangebloods and the new official sponsor of 10TFTW.

They are Longhorns through and through, and I can't wait to make a full introduction later in the week.
 
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As I said in the other thread, Briles Jr is far, far less responsible than Baylor’s AD for what happened at Baylor. The real outrage is this happened almost immediately after Baylor was forced to fire McCaw:

Ian-McCaw-Jerry-Falwell-Liberty-Athletics-secondary.jpg

It wasn't the Baylor AD offering up "white girls" to African American recruits. It was Briles. As reported, "You like white girls? Baylor has a lot and they like football players."
 
@Ketchum any idea when we might hear about the 10th assistant for Texas? I'd love it if Texas got a better offensive line coach to help Warehime and Tom Herman calling plays next season.
 
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I actually recorded the Arsenal game and was going to watch it later. Then I saw the score. Ultimate sigh!!!! Please can we fire Wegner!
 
Man we're already talking about how next year is make or break for Shaka? Wasn’t that supposed to be this year? I was really excited for his hire, but at this point I have virtually no doubt that Barnes could have achieved better results over the same time period.
 
Regarding the Oscars, I really thought Ingrid Goes West was a terrific movie that examined our “personal brand” society. Did that get any Oscar buzz for best film? I also thought Aubrey Plaza was really good.
 
A true home run hire is a household name that usually don't even exist in reality. Barring the addition of a star offensive coordinator that bumps Tim Beck out of the program, I'm not sure that many would call whatever Herman does an actual home run.

Orlando was a home run hire, but not a household name. CTH can hire an Orlando-level hire that is not a household name when hired, even if he becomes one later, as Orlando is or should be becoming. Whether that is a play-caller, QB coach, or O Line coach, remains to be seen.
 
It wasn't the Baylor AD offering up "white girls" to African American recruits. It was Briles. As reported, "You like white girls? Baylor has a lot and they like football players."

The AD knew full well that Briles and crew were more than happy to bring in miscreants in order to win football games. As the boss, he could have shut it down in a heartbeat. But he didn’t, because McCaw put winning football games above morality and common decency. And Briles knew he had carte Blanche from his boss.
 
Didn't get to watch the game, but any chance Cook just had a bad day? Seems kind of harsh for a 5 star.
 
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Todd Orlando is the most valuable property that Tom Herman's football program holds.

Not the fancy new lockers. Not the support staff. Not the other eight assistant coaches combined.

It's Orlando.

Way back in November of 2016, I had a conversation with one of the most influential people in the entire University of Texas universe about the subject of Tom Herman potentially being the next Texas head coach in the event that Charlie Strong wasn't retained.

The theory on the attractiveness of a Herman hire was this:

a. The Texas offense was a disaster. By bringing in Herman, the thought was that Texas would have one of the nation's top offensive masterminds pulling the strings on that side of the ball.

b. If Herman was able to hold up his end of the bargain, an elite defensive coordinator would need to be paired with him.

The thinking was that those two things added together would translate to championships and it's pretty much the foundation of the decision to hire Herman.

With a fat raise on the way this off-season for his work and increased value on the open market, the Longhorns have created a universe for their top asset that will allow him to pull a Kirby Smart if he wants to - wait until the right head coaching job opens up and don't sweat the first job that opens up because it's kind of a decent opportunity.

Orlando turns 46 at some point this year and you know he'll want to be a head coach at some point if he can. It's the obvious next step in his evolution and I'm sure he'd prefer it happen sooner than later, but if you can make close to $2 million per year while waiting for a quality opportunity and not just an opportunity, well ... that's a hell of a consolation prize to massage any hurting lustful ambition.

While it's possible Orlando will stay in Austin for the next decade, perhaps earning as much as $20 million along the way, the smart money likely has him here in town for a season or two.

From my vantage point, it puts the pressure to Herman to step up the offense's game because the window he has with this potentially special coordinator gets smaller with every day that passes. The last thing this program can afford to have happen is to witness the offense finally get to where it needs to be at the exact moment as its ace defensive leader leaves town.

You can say that Herman can just go out and hire the best defensive coordinator in the country, but it's not always as easy as that. Just ask Texas A&M.

There's a very serendipitous thing about these things. Vince Lombardi had magic in a bottle in Green Bay and couldn't replicate it in Washington. Jimmy Johnson was a coaching god in Dallas and a mere mortal in Miami. Hell, look no further than the Manny Diaz experiment ... from budding rock star to fired in-season to almost remade again.

Timing and circumstances matter.

What Texas has in Orlando is lightening in a bottle, and all the money and ambition in the world can't automatically buy that.

So, when you have it, you better take advantage of it.

That's one of Herman's challenges in the next two years ... get all of the parts in this program working together at an elite-level in a way that allows you to take advantage of the serendipity. Texas has pulled this off before, but the "head-coaching-in-waiting" card isn't one that can be played in this instance.

The moment is now. It must be so.

No. 2 – Just for the record ...

My all-time Texas defensive coordinator rankings for the last quarter-century look like this.

1. Greg Robinson
2. Will Muschamp
3. Todd Orlando
4. Gene Chizik
5. Bull Reese

The work Robinson did with the 2004 and 2013 defenses was as good as any work any coach has ever done in this town. I think Orlando has a chance to end up in the No. 1 spot because I actually think he's a better coordinator than Muschamp, but he has to coach in some big games first.

No. 3 – Attaboy, Burnt Orange Daddy Warbucks ...

It's easy to take shots at the Texas administration during a stretch of time when the football program is in the worst rut in the history of the program, but I'm going to acknowledge a point that has been lost in the last decade or so.

For all of the failures in the program, committing resources on assistant coaches has never been one.

When Mack Brown needed a game-changer following the 2007 season, Texas went out and spent big bucks to bring Muschamp in. When the wheels were spinning in mud in the final years of Mack's regime, he had all the support he needed to go get whomever it was he needed to get. Hell, it was thought to be impossible to pull Bryan Harsin from Boise, but money talks and everything else walks, and Texas ponied up the money needed to pull it off.

When Charlie Strong requested silly sums for Vance Bedford and Shawn Watson, not one person blinked because no one wanted to ever hear that Strong didn't have the money to hire the staff he wanted.

When Herman needed $1.7 million this week just to make sure nothing happened with Orlando, he received instant backing.

The return on investment has often lacked significantly, but the investment is always there.

No. 4 – The elephant in the room ...
talk-about-the-white-elephant-in-the-room.png




You want to know the cold, hard truth about Kendal Briles?

He's been far more protected in the last two years by a flunking system and a good ol’ boy network that refuses to demand answers than any of the victims in the Baylor Rape Scandal ever were.

The purpose of the Pepper Hamilton verbal report was to protect the bad guys, of which there were many, out of pure self-interest. Transparency and accountability were never a goal and along the way, it has allowed almost everyone who WAS involved in what happened a clean getaway.

Multiple coaches and football staff members were involved in the cover-up of the Baylor scandal according to the Pepper Hamilton report. We not only know that, we know that Baylor protected them throughout the 2016 season by keeping them on staff ... because football. When you have men in a position of power and all they care about is winning football, what you come away with is a situation where zero accountability is demanded for really important things.

What on earth has Kendal Briles done in the last two years that would suggest he deserves the benefit of the doubt? Maybe Major Applewhite would like to give that question a go.

Just name one thing.

There's not one. Like his daddy before him, Kendal Briles is counting on our attention span being short enough that a gnat would blush to pave the path for him.

The truth is that none deserve the benefit of the doubt, least of which someone who worked shoulder to shoulder with Art for years, has been named in at least one lawsuit and hasn't so much as once denounced or owned an ounce of accountability for what happened in public fashion.

You're telling me that a guy seemingly covered with 2,000 pounds of dirt gets an unquestioned second chance without ever truly being forced to give up his first chance? Before he has to so much as answer a single question about his role? Before we know how deep his role was? Before it's clear that he needs to be on a football field over a jail cell?

G-O-O-D O-L B-O-Y N-E-T-W-O-R-K.

Upon learning of all the ways the system failed so many victims in Waco, we're failing them again by essentially allowing for the shady tactics used by Baylor to stand as a shield for the monsters and the final silenced word on the matter. As a society, we talk a good game, but we practice it like crap.

Imagine a world, where a coach that previously should have been fired for having sexual relations with a student trainer but wasn't, is given the latitude just a few years later to personally vouch for a friend of his who would be Evil Pig-Pen if placed in a Peanuts remake of the Baylor Rape Scandal?

Actually, you don't have to imagine a thing. Just open your eyes.


No. 5 – Five thoughts on the Army All-American Bowl ...

a. I can see Caden Sterns pushing Brandon Jones and every other safety on the roster for playing time if the junior-to-be doesn't start elevating his game because Sterns is the kind of player you almost have to have on the field and if he's not on the field, there better a bad mamma jamma in front of him doing bad mamma jamma things.

b. Jaylen Waddle is going to be hell on wheels at the next level. If that guy picks an offense that schemes for players with his skill set, he's going to be a college star. The only thing keeping him from being a five-star is the lack of five-star measurables, but the dude has five-star game.

c. Anthony Cook isn't a five-star. He was the third best UT DB signing at the game all week. Adjust some expectations.

d. I'm buying Jalen Green stock.

e. Junior Angilau needs a redshirt year unless he's developed at an elite level by an elite coach. I'm not saying my opinion can't be changed, I'm just saying he looked like the 95 percent of high school linemen that aren't quite ready for prime time when they arrive on a college campus.

No. 6 – The only men's basketball thought I have this weekend ...

Get better, Andrew Jones.

I wrote a bunch of stuff about the loss in Waco this weekend and deleted all of it when I found myself wondering whether this team has a chance without Jones.

As if that remotely matters more than his health and if he's been struggling to feel right for the last few weeks, I'm not sure we even need to bother with basketball discussion that involves him until he's feeling much better.

No. 7 – Ho-hum …

The Lady Longhorns handled some business on Sunday afternoon in Manhattan and while they have games against TCU and Kansas looming this week, it's pretty impossible to ignore what's slated a week from now.

Monday, January 15th - No. 1 UConn is coming to town.

My popcorn is already popping.

No. 8 – Buy or Sell …
buy_sell.jpg


BUY or SELL: Tom Herman's 10th assistant will be a home run hire?

(Sell) A true home run hire is a household name that usually don't even exist in reality. Barring the addition of a star offensive coordinator that bumps Tim Beck out of the program, I'm not sure that many would call whatever Herman does an actual home run. He's probably going to hire a position coach of some variety and most of those don't bring jaw-dropping resumes that you could dare label a home run.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman should concern himself with Lincoln Riley, as opposed to Jimbo Fisher?

(Sell) The head coach at The University of Texas must be able to concern himself with both at all times because he doesn't live in an "either/or" kind of world.

BUY or SELL: After one year of seeing Tom Herman in action; he wins a National Championship at Texas?

(Sell) This question kind of mystifies me.

BUY or SELL: In the aftermath of the Texas Bowl, Tom Herman now knows with certainty that he needs a new offensive play caller?

(Buy) Given that he called plays in the bowl game, but only after practicing in bowl workouts, I'd say he definitely understands the play-calling needs in the aftermath of the bowl game.

BUY or SELL: The 10th assistant is an offensive line coach?

(Buy) I think it's much, much more likely than a quarterback/play-calling OC. I'm starting to believe that we'll see more of Lincoln Riley in Tom Herman next year.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman redshirts both freshman QBs next year?

(Sell) I've already gone on the record that I believe one of the two freshmen will be the No .2 by October.

BUY or SELL: It doesn’t matter who are the top two quarterbacks going into next season. They will be compared to Applewhite and Simms by Ketchum?

(Buy) Ok, I'm sure at some point it'll be inevitable that the Applewhite/Simms reference is cited, but do I have a reputation for dragging that situation up that I don't know about? For the record, I looked at the archives of this column and the last time the Applewhite/Simms situation was specifically referenced was 11 months ago.

BUY or SELL: Elko is another home run hire by the Aggies?

(Sell) Stand-up double. Really strong hire, but not one that will move meters.

BUY or SELL: Baker Mayfield is to Lincoln Riley what Johnny Manziel was to Kevin Sumlin?

(Buy) Very, very possible. I mean ... Mayfield is the best player in the history of the program according to a lot of Sooners. We'll know more about Riley in 2018 than we ever learned in 2017.

BUY or SELL: Texas has a future NFL draft pick competing for its starting QB position this fall?

(Sell) No way I'm walking out on that limb at this point with zero evidence that this exists.

BUY or SELL: We make March Madness?

(Sell) It can't be done without Andrew Jones on the floor leading the way and he's not currently on the floor leading the way. I've been an optimist all season, but my optimism is slipping.

BUY or SELL: Shaka?

(Buy) Pure confirmation bias on my part. I can't defend his first three years very strongly, but I still believe in him. Next year will be a do-or-die season for him and I think it all starts to come together.

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Prediction: Alabama 24 Georgia 13

... The wildcard round of the NFL playoffs was about as entertaining as the college football bowl season leading up to the playoffs for about 10 hours... and then Carolina/New Orleans happened. What. A. Game.

... Drew Brees actually had a "No, Danny, no!" moment late in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure I would have believed it if I hadn't seen it.

... Derrick Johnson deserves better than to have played his entire career in Kansas City with quarterbacking play that can't get the team out of the Wildcard round.

... Speaking of Derrick Johnson...


... The Falcons look like a team capable of getting back to the Super Bowl.

... I think the possible handshake between Antonio Conte/Jose Mourinho the next time United and Chelsea play will be more highly anticipated than the Super Bowl.

... I couldn't have been alone in enjoying Nottingham Forest "dominate" Arsenal on Sunday.

... I wish nothing but the best for Philippe Coutinho, but I would have liked to have seen him end his tenure with a touch more class, with actions that didn't include putting in a transfer request the day before the season started or claiming two injuries just as two transfer windows opened or letting his entourage play games with the media for almost a year. At the end of the day, he quit on his team in the middle of the season and that truth won't go away quickly.

... Oh captain, my future captain.


No. 9B – Updated Oscar rankings …
mudbound.jpg


Had a chance to catch "Mudbound" this week while I was battling a nasty 24-hour flu of some kind and while the Netflix original isn't a feel-good movie for the family, it's one hell of a well-acted movie.

Any and all acting accolades in the coming weeks from the cast will be well-earned.

My updated Oscars rankings.

(Still need to see: All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Detroit, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, The Post and Roman J. Israel, Esq)

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. The Big Sick
5. Wind River
6. Mudbound
7. The Disaster Artist
8. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Get Out
10. Blake Runner 2049

Best Actor

1. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
2. Adam Driver (The Last Jedi)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
4. Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
5. Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Best Actress

1. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
3. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
4. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
5. Elizabeth Olson (Wind River)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
5. Rob Morgan (Mudbound)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
2. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
3. Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Director

1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
2. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
3. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
4. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

No. 10 – And Finally …

I wanted to end things with a special thanks to the folks over at Covert Ford in Hutto for being the latest partner to join our family at Orangebloods and the new official sponsor of 10TFTW.

They are Longhorns through and through, and I can't wait to make a full introduction later in the week.
Oh my gosh Derrick Johnson. I had not seen that play until now. How did Mariota survive it.
 
I saw DJ make that same play in the holiday bowl when he was a freshman

Wasn't it DKR who said something about a young pup biting early and showing what he is made of?

That's how you know...
 
ee0e3a40b744e2eebc3b4d949eaa9055x.jpg

Todd Orlando is the most valuable property that Tom Herman's football program holds.

Not the fancy new lockers. Not the support staff. Not the other eight assistant coaches combined.

It's Orlando.

Way back in November of 2016, I had a conversation with one of the most influential people in the entire University of Texas universe about the subject of Tom Herman potentially being the next Texas head coach in the event that Charlie Strong wasn't retained.

The theory on the attractiveness of a Herman hire was this:

a. The Texas offense was a disaster. By bringing in Herman, the thought was that Texas would have one of the nation's top offensive masterminds pulling the strings on that side of the ball.

b. If Herman was able to hold up his end of the bargain, an elite defensive coordinator would need to be paired with him.

The thinking was that those two things added together would translate to championships and it's pretty much the foundation of the decision to hire Herman.

With a fat raise on the way this off-season for his work and increased value on the open market, the Longhorns have created a universe for their top asset that will allow him to pull a Kirby Smart if he wants to - wait until the right head coaching job opens up and don't sweat the first job that opens up because it's kind of a decent opportunity.

Orlando turns 46 at some point this year and you know he'll want to be a head coach at some point if he can. It's the obvious next step in his evolution and I'm sure he'd prefer it happen sooner than later, but if you can make close to $2 million per year while waiting for a quality opportunity and not just an opportunity, well ... that's a hell of a consolation prize to massage any hurting lustful ambition.

While it's possible Orlando will stay in Austin for the next decade, perhaps earning as much as $20 million along the way, the smart money likely has him here in town for a season or two.

From my vantage point, it puts the pressure to Herman to step up the offense's game because the window he has with this potentially special coordinator gets smaller with every day that passes. The last thing this program can afford to have happen is to witness the offense finally get to where it needs to be at the exact moment as its ace defensive leader leaves town.

You can say that Herman can just go out and hire the best defensive coordinator in the country, but it's not always as easy as that. Just ask Texas A&M.

There's a very serendipitous thing about these things. Vince Lombardi had magic in a bottle in Green Bay and couldn't replicate it in Washington. Jimmy Johnson was a coaching god in Dallas and a mere mortal in Miami. Hell, look no further than the Manny Diaz experiment ... from budding rock star to fired in-season to almost remade again.

Timing and circumstances matter.

What Texas has in Orlando is lightening in a bottle, and all the money and ambition in the world can't automatically buy that.

So, when you have it, you better take advantage of it.

That's one of Herman's challenges in the next two years ... get all of the parts in this program working together at an elite-level in a way that allows you to take advantage of the serendipity. Texas has pulled this off before, but the "head-coaching-in-waiting" card isn't one that can be played in this instance.

The moment is now. It must be so.

No. 2 – Just for the record ...

My all-time Texas defensive coordinator rankings for the last quarter-century look like this.

1. Greg Robinson
2. Will Muschamp
3. Todd Orlando
4. Gene Chizik
5. Bull Reese

The work Robinson did with the 2004 and 2013 defenses was as good as any work any coach has ever done in this town. I think Orlando has a chance to end up in the No. 1 spot because I actually think he's a better coordinator than Muschamp, but he has to coach in some big games first.

No. 3 – Attaboy, Burnt Orange Daddy Warbucks ...

It's easy to take shots at the Texas administration during a stretch of time when the football program is in the worst rut in the history of the program, but I'm going to acknowledge a point that has been lost in the last decade or so.

For all of the failures in the program, committing resources on assistant coaches has never been one.

When Mack Brown needed a game-changer following the 2007 season, Texas went out and spent big bucks to bring Muschamp in. When the wheels were spinning in mud in the final years of Mack's regime, he had all the support he needed to go get whomever it was he needed to get. Hell, it was thought to be impossible to pull Bryan Harsin from Boise, but money talks and everything else walks, and Texas ponied up the money needed to pull it off.

When Charlie Strong requested silly sums for Vance Bedford and Shawn Watson, not one person blinked because no one wanted to ever hear that Strong didn't have the money to hire the staff he wanted.

When Herman needed $1.7 million this week just to make sure nothing happened with Orlando, he received instant backing.

The return on investment has often lacked significantly, but the investment is always there.

No. 4 – The elephant in the room ...
talk-about-the-white-elephant-in-the-room.png




You want to know the cold, hard truth about Kendal Briles?

He's been far more protected in the last two years by a flunking system and a good ol’ boy network that refuses to demand answers than any of the victims in the Baylor Rape Scandal ever were.

The purpose of the Pepper Hamilton verbal report was to protect the bad guys, of which there were many, out of pure self-interest. Transparency and accountability were never a goal and along the way, it has allowed almost everyone who WAS involved in what happened a clean getaway.

Multiple coaches and football staff members were involved in the cover-up of the Baylor scandal according to the Pepper Hamilton report. We not only know that, we know that Baylor protected them throughout the 2016 season by keeping them on staff ... because football. When you have men in a position of power and all they care about is winning football, what you come away with is a situation where zero accountability is demanded for really important things.

What on earth has Kendal Briles done in the last two years that would suggest he deserves the benefit of the doubt? Maybe Major Applewhite would like to give that question a go.

Just name one thing.

There's not one. Like his daddy before him, Kendal Briles is counting on our attention span being short enough that a gnat would blush to pave the path for him.

The truth is that none deserve the benefit of the doubt, least of which someone who worked shoulder to shoulder with Art for years, has been named in at least one lawsuit and hasn't so much as once denounced or owned an ounce of accountability for what happened in public fashion.

You're telling me that a guy seemingly covered with 2,000 pounds of dirt gets an unquestioned second chance without ever truly being forced to give up his first chance? Before he has to so much as answer a single question about his role? Before we know how deep his role was? Before it's clear that he needs to be on a football field over a jail cell?

G-O-O-D O-L B-O-Y N-E-T-W-O-R-K.

Upon learning of all the ways the system failed so many victims in Waco, we're failing them again by essentially allowing for the shady tactics used by Baylor to stand as a shield for the monsters and the final silenced word on the matter. As a society, we talk a good game, but we practice it like crap.

Imagine a world, where a coach that previously should have been fired for having sexual relations with a student trainer but wasn't, is given the latitude just a few years later to personally vouch for a friend of his who would be Evil Pig-Pen if placed in a Peanuts remake of the Baylor Rape Scandal?

Actually, you don't have to imagine a thing. Just open your eyes.


No. 5 – Five thoughts on the Army All-American Bowl ...

a. I can see Caden Sterns pushing Brandon Jones and every other safety on the roster for playing time if the junior-to-be doesn't start elevating his game because Sterns is the kind of player you almost have to have on the field and if he's not on the field, there better a bad mamma jamma in front of him doing bad mamma jamma things.

b. Jaylen Waddle is going to be hell on wheels at the next level. If that guy picks an offense that schemes for players with his skill set, he's going to be a college star. The only thing keeping him from being a five-star is the lack of five-star measurables, but the dude has five-star game.

c. Anthony Cook isn't a five-star. He was the third best UT DB signing at the game all week. Adjust some expectations.

d. I'm buying Jalen Green stock.

e. Junior Angilau needs a redshirt year unless he's developed at an elite level by an elite coach. I'm not saying my opinion can't be changed, I'm just saying he looked like the 95 percent of high school linemen that aren't quite ready for prime time when they arrive on a college campus.

No. 6 – The only men's basketball thought I have this weekend ...

Get better, Andrew Jones.

I wrote a bunch of stuff about the loss in Waco this weekend and deleted all of it when I found myself wondering whether this team has a chance without Jones.

As if that remotely matters more than his health and if he's been struggling to feel right for the last few weeks, I'm not sure we even need to bother with basketball discussion that involves him until he's feeling much better.

No. 7 – Ho-hum …

The Lady Longhorns handled some business on Sunday afternoon in Manhattan and while they have games against TCU and Kansas looming this week, it's pretty impossible to ignore what's slated a week from now.

Monday, January 15th - No. 1 UConn is coming to town.

My popcorn is already popping.

No. 8 – Buy or Sell …
buy_sell.jpg


BUY or SELL: Tom Herman's 10th assistant will be a home run hire?

(Sell) A true home run hire is a household name that usually don't even exist in reality. Barring the addition of a star offensive coordinator that bumps Tim Beck out of the program, I'm not sure that many would call whatever Herman does an actual home run. He's probably going to hire a position coach of some variety and most of those don't bring jaw-dropping resumes that you could dare label a home run.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman should concern himself with Lincoln Riley, as opposed to Jimbo Fisher?

(Sell) The head coach at The University of Texas must be able to concern himself with both at all times because he doesn't live in an "either/or" kind of world.

BUY or SELL: After one year of seeing Tom Herman in action; he wins a National Championship at Texas?

(Sell) This question kind of mystifies me.

BUY or SELL: In the aftermath of the Texas Bowl, Tom Herman now knows with certainty that he needs a new offensive play caller?

(Buy) Given that he called plays in the bowl game, but only after practicing in bowl workouts, I'd say he definitely understands the play-calling needs in the aftermath of the bowl game.

BUY or SELL: The 10th assistant is an offensive line coach?

(Buy) I think it's much, much more likely than a quarterback/play-calling OC. I'm starting to believe that we'll see more of Lincoln Riley in Tom Herman next year.

BUY or SELL: Tom Herman redshirts both freshman QBs next year?

(Sell) I've already gone on the record that I believe one of the two freshmen will be the No .2 by October.

BUY or SELL: It doesn’t matter who are the top two quarterbacks going into next season. They will be compared to Applewhite and Simms by Ketchum?

(Buy) Ok, I'm sure at some point it'll be inevitable that the Applewhite/Simms reference is cited, but do I have a reputation for dragging that situation up that I don't know about? For the record, I looked at the archives of this column and the last time the Applewhite/Simms situation was specifically referenced was 11 months ago.

BUY or SELL: Elko is another home run hire by the Aggies?

(Sell) Stand-up double. Really strong hire, but not one that will move meters.

BUY or SELL: Baker Mayfield is to Lincoln Riley what Johnny Manziel was to Kevin Sumlin?

(Buy) Very, very possible. I mean ... Mayfield is the best player in the history of the program according to a lot of Sooners. We'll know more about Riley in 2018 than we ever learned in 2017.

BUY or SELL: Texas has a future NFL draft pick competing for its starting QB position this fall?

(Sell) No way I'm walking out on that limb at this point with zero evidence that this exists.

BUY or SELL: We make March Madness?

(Sell) It can't be done without Andrew Jones on the floor leading the way and he's not currently on the floor leading the way. I've been an optimist all season, but my optimism is slipping.

BUY or SELL: Shaka?

(Buy) Pure confirmation bias on my part. I can't defend his first three years very strongly, but I still believe in him. Next year will be a do-or-die season for him and I think it all starts to come together.

No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …

... Prediction: Alabama 24 Georgia 13

... The wildcard round of the NFL playoffs was about as entertaining as the college football bowl season leading up to the playoffs for about 10 hours... and then Carolina/New Orleans happened. What. A. Game.

... Drew Brees actually had a "No, Danny, no!" moment late in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure I would have believed it if I hadn't seen it.

... Derrick Johnson deserves better than to have played his entire career in Kansas City with quarterbacking play that can't get the team out of the Wildcard round.

... Speaking of Derrick Johnson...


... The Falcons look like a team capable of getting back to the Super Bowl.

... I think the possible handshake between Antonio Conte/Jose Mourinho the next time United and Chelsea play will be more highly anticipated than the Super Bowl.

... I couldn't have been alone in enjoying Nottingham Forest "dominate" Arsenal on Sunday.

... I wish nothing but the best for Philippe Coutinho, but I would have liked to have seen him end his tenure with a touch more class, with actions that didn't include putting in a transfer request the day before the season started or claiming two injuries just as two transfer windows opened or letting his entourage play games with the media for almost a year. At the end of the day, he quit on his team in the middle of the season and that truth won't go away quickly.

... Oh captain, my future captain.


No. 9B – Updated Oscar rankings …
mudbound.jpg


Had a chance to catch "Mudbound" this week while I was battling a nasty 24-hour flu of some kind and while the Netflix original isn't a feel-good movie for the family, it's one hell of a well-acted movie.

Any and all acting accolades in the coming weeks from the cast will be well-earned.

My updated Oscars rankings.

(Still need to see: All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Detroit, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, The Post and Roman J. Israel, Esq)

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. The Big Sick
5. Wind River
6. Mudbound
7. The Disaster Artist
8. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Get Out
10. Blake Runner 2049

Best Actor

1. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
2. Adam Driver (The Last Jedi)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
4. Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
5. Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

Best Actress

1. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
3. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
4. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
5. Elizabeth Olson (Wind River)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
5. Rob Morgan (Mudbound)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
2. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
3. Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Director

1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
2. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
3. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
4. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

No. 10 – And Finally …

I wanted to end things with a special thanks to the folks over at Covert Ford in Hutto for being the latest partner to join our family at Orangebloods and the new official sponsor of 10TFTW.

They are Longhorns through and through, and I can't wait to make a full introduction later in the week.

The winner of the NC game is correct but it will be first team to 20 that wins. This will be a Saban game from Start to finish. Ugly and brutal. When this one and one more for the record and Nick and his 8 year contract are history. Bank it.
 
ee0e3a40b744e2eebc3b4d949eaa9055x.jpg


No. 2 – Just for the record ...

My all-time Texas defensive coordinator rankings for the last quarter-century look like this.

1. Greg Robinson
2. Will Muschamp
3. Todd Orlando
4. Gene Chizik
5. Bull Reese

The work Robinson did with the 2004 and 2013 defenses was as good as any work any coach has ever done in this town. I think Orlando has a chance to end up in the No. 1 spot because I actually think he's a better coordinator than Muschamp, but he has to coach in some big games first.

Totally agree on these dc rankings. Robinson was so underrated by many. He did incredible work here. If playing an option or pro-set team I actually think bull Reese was very good. He was horrendous against spread teams. Game just passed him by there, but guy was nails against conventional attacks.
 
This was a great 10TFTW. I appreciate the honest non sunshine pumping answers.

Briles Light has culpability in what happened at Baylor and any1 denying that needs to check why they believe that. He wasn't the enabler maybe but he has dirt in him and should be held accountable. The whole barn should've been burned to the ground and so far no1 truly has been held accountable. Damn shame.

I hope Jones comes back healthy. For his own sake. Kid is a baller and clearly missed on the court. Get healthy Youngblood!

Stay Lit, Play Lit
 
Random comments:
  • Orlando - Sometimes in one's career it matters more to find your level of total confidence and competence than keep looking upward at something you are not built for.
  • Sterns - ditto, ditto along with Overshown.
  • Waddle - Ketch, you and too many other "evaluators" put way too much emphasis on "measurables". Just focus on results.
  • Cook - Overrated.
  • Applewhite - One of my favorite players for UT has just totally disappointed me. That hire will be career stunting. And, President Khutar and Chairman Tillman screwed up letting it happen.
  • 10th Assistant - If not a strong OC hire, then Herman may have made a potentially career stunting decision.....see Charlie Strong.
  • Mayfield the best ever at OU - Ketch, you really need to look back, way back, before making that statement. Hell, I will even go back to the late 40's and an AA qb named Royal and come forward through the Bud years (Vessels), Owens, Mildren, Washington, Sims, the Selmans, etc. As much as I despise them, they have had many a really great ballplayer that has haunted us.
 
If Herman calls plays, the 10th coach is house money!! Get an OL coach or DT coach that's a recruiter and were on the right track!!!!
 
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Disappointed in Coutinho as well for selfish reasons, heading to Liverpool vs Man City next weekend.
 
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