I disagree with a couple of your buy or sell answers, ketchup, but I am not going to tell you which ones so that you don't argue with me.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend (The importance of Todd Orlando...)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Orlando has been better than muschamp, who had far more talent at his disposal.
They signed off on the decision. The lettermen and alumni were canvassed a few weeks ago. This was not a decision hastily made. Make of it what you want, but this is exactly what happened.
DJ my man, Marriotta said what the hell was that, a heat seeking missile!!!!!!!!
No just a Longhorn, just ole DJ, have a nice day
No just a Longhorn, just ole DJ, have a nice day
The 2018 recruiting, Herman's mentor (Urban Meyer), Herman's drive and work ethic, Orlando, and the administration's buy-in, etc, make it a "buy" for me. But I don't think I have to be "certain a freaking national title is assured" in order to call it a "buy". A "buy", to me, means "more likely than not".
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I’ll be curious to see what you think of Phantom Thread when you watch it. It’s one of the weirdest movies I’ve ever seen.
Todd Orlando is the most valuable property that Tom Herman's football program holds.
Not the fancy new lockers. Not the support staff. Not the other eight assistant coaches combined.
It's Orlando.
Way back in November of 2016, I had a conversation with one of the most influential people in the entire University of Texas universe about the subject of Tom Herman potentially being the next Texas head coach in the event that Charlie Strong wasn't retained.
The theory on the attractiveness of a Herman hire was this:
a. The Texas offense was a disaster. By bringing in Herman, the thought was that Texas would have one of the nation's top offensive masterminds pulling the strings on that side of the ball.
b. If Herman was able to hold up his end of the bargain, an elite defensive coordinator would need to be paired with him.
The thinking was that those two things added together would translate to championships and it's pretty much the foundation of the decision to hire Herman.
With a fat raise on the way this off-season for his work and increased value on the open market, the Longhorns have created a universe for their top asset that will allow him to pull a Kirby Smart if he wants to - wait until the right head coaching job opens up and don't sweat the first job that opens up because it's kind of a decent opportunity.
Orlando turns 46 at some point this year and you know he'll want to be a head coach at some point if he can. It's the obvious next step in his evolution and I'm sure he'd prefer it happen sooner than later, but if you can make close to $2 million per year while waiting for a quality opportunity and not just an opportunity, well ... that's a hell of a consolation prize to massage any hurting lustful ambition.
While it's possible Orlando will stay in Austin for the next decade, perhaps earning as much as $20 million along the way, the smart money likely has him here in town for a season or two.
From my vantage point, it puts the pressure to Herman to step up the offense's game because the window he has with this potentially special coordinator gets smaller with every day that passes. The last thing this program can afford to have happen is to witness the offense finally get to where it needs to be at the exact moment as its ace defensive leader leaves town.
You can say that Herman can just go out and hire the best defensive coordinator in the country, but it's not always as easy as that. Just ask Texas A&M.
There's a very serendipitous thing about these things. Vince Lombardi had magic in a bottle in Green Bay and couldn't replicate it in Washington. Jimmy Johnson was a coaching god in Dallas and a mere mortal in Miami. Hell, look no further than the Manny Diaz experiment ... from budding rock star to fired in-season to almost remade again.
Timing and circumstances matter.
What Texas has in Orlando is lightening in a bottle, and all the money and ambition in the world can't automatically buy that.
So, when you have it, you better take advantage of it.
That's one of Herman's challenges in the next two years ... get all of the parts in this program working together at an elite-level in a way that allows you to take advantage of the serendipity. Texas has pulled this off before, but the "head-coaching-in-waiting" card isn't one that can be played in this instance.
The moment is now. It must be so.
No. 2 – Just for the record ...
My all-time Texas defensive coordinator rankings for the last quarter-century look like this.
1. Greg Robinson
2. Will Muschamp
3. Todd Orlando
4. Gene Chizik
5. Bull Reese
The work Robinson did with the 2004 and 2013 defenses was as good as any work any coach has ever done in this town. I think Orlando has a chance to end up in the No. 1 spot because I actually think he's a better coordinator than Muschamp, but he has to coach in some big games first.
No. 3 – Attaboy, Burnt Orange Daddy Warbucks ...
It's easy to take shots at the Texas administration during a stretch of time when the football program is in the worst rut in the history of the program, but I'm going to acknowledge a point that has been lost in the last decade or so.
For all of the failures in the program, committing resources on assistant coaches has never been one.
When Mack Brown needed a game-changer following the 2007 season, Texas went out and spent big bucks to bring Muschamp in. When the wheels were spinning in mud in the final years of Mack's regime, he had all the support he needed to go get whomever it was he needed to get. Hell, it was thought to be impossible to pull Bryan Harsin from Boise, but money talks and everything else walks, and Texas ponied up the money needed to pull it off.
When Charlie Strong requested silly sums for Vance Bedford and Shawn Watson, not one person blinked because no one wanted to ever hear that Strong didn't have the money to hire the staff he wanted.
When Herman needed $1.7 million this week just to make sure nothing happened with Orlando, he received instant backing.
The return on investment has often lacked significantly, but the investment is always there.
No. 4 – The elephant in the room ...
You want to know the cold, hard truth about Kendal Briles?
He's been far more protected in the last two years by a flunking system and a good ol’ boy network that refuses to demand answers than any of the victims in the Baylor Rape Scandal ever were.
The purpose of the Pepper Hamilton verbal report was to protect the bad guys, of which there were many, out of pure self-interest. Transparency and accountability were never a goal and along the way, it has allowed almost everyone who WAS involved in what happened a clean getaway.
Multiple coaches and football staff members were involved in the cover-up of the Baylor scandal according to the Pepper Hamilton report. We not only know that, we know that Baylor protected them throughout the 2016 season by keeping them on staff ... because football. When you have men in a position of power and all they care about is winning football, what you come away with is a situation where zero accountability is demanded for really important things.
What on earth has Kendal Briles done in the last two years that would suggest he deserves the benefit of the doubt? Maybe Major Applewhite would like to give that question a go.
Just name one thing.
There's not one. Like his daddy before him, Kendal Briles is counting on our attention span being short enough that a gnat would blush to pave the path for him.
The truth is that none deserve the benefit of the doubt, least of which someone who worked shoulder to shoulder with Art for years, has been named in at least one lawsuit and hasn't so much as once denounced or owned an ounce of accountability for what happened in public fashion.
You're telling me that a guy seemingly covered with 2,000 pounds of dirt gets an unquestioned second chance without ever truly being forced to give up his first chance? Before he has to so much as answer a single question about his role? Before we know how deep his role was? Before it's clear that he needs to be on a football field over a jail cell?
G-O-O-D O-L B-O-Y N-E-T-W-O-R-K.
Upon learning of all the ways the system failed so many victims in Waco, we're failing them again by essentially allowing for the shady tactics used by Baylor to stand as a shield for the monsters and the final silenced word on the matter. As a society, we talk a good game, but we practice it like crap.
Imagine a world, where a coach that previously should have been fired for having sexual relations with a student trainer but wasn't, is given the latitude just a few years later to personally vouch for a friend of his who would be Evil Pig-Pen if placed in a Peanuts remake of the Baylor Rape Scandal?
Actually, you don't have to imagine a thing. Just open your eyes.
No. 5 – Five thoughts on the Army All-American Bowl ...
a. I can see Caden Sterns pushing Brandon Jones and every other safety on the roster for playing time if the junior-to-be doesn't start elevating his game because Sterns is the kind of player you almost have to have on the field and if he's not on the field, there better a bad mamma jamma in front of him doing bad mamma jamma things.
b. Jaylen Waddle is going to be hell on wheels at the next level. If that guy picks an offense that schemes for players with his skill set, he's going to be a college star. The only thing keeping him from being a five-star is the lack of five-star measurables, but the dude has five-star game.
c. Anthony Cook isn't a five-star. He was the third best UT DB signing at the game all week. Adjust some expectations.
d. I'm buying Jalen Green stock.
e. Junior Angilau needs a redshirt year unless he's developed at an elite level by an elite coach. I'm not saying my opinion can't be changed, I'm just saying he looked like the 95 percent of high school linemen that aren't quite ready for prime time when they arrive on a college campus.
No. 6 – The only men's basketball thought I have this weekend ...
Get better, Andrew Jones.
I wrote a bunch of stuff about the loss in Waco this weekend and deleted all of it when I found myself wondering whether this team has a chance without Jones.
As if that remotely matters more than his health and if he's been struggling to feel right for the last few weeks, I'm not sure we even need to bother with basketball discussion that involves him until he's feeling much better.
No. 7 – Ho-hum …
The Lady Longhorns handled some business on Sunday afternoon in Manhattan and while they have games against TCU and Kansas looming this week, it's pretty impossible to ignore what's slated a week from now.
Monday, January 15th - No. 1 UConn is coming to town.
My popcorn is already popping.
No. 8 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman's 10th assistant will be a home run hire?
(Sell) A true home run hire is a household name that usually don't even exist in reality. Barring the addition of a star offensive coordinator that bumps Tim Beck out of the program, I'm not sure that many would call whatever Herman does an actual home run. He's probably going to hire a position coach of some variety and most of those don't bring jaw-dropping resumes that you could dare label a home run.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman should concern himself with Lincoln Riley, as opposed to Jimbo Fisher?
(Sell) The head coach at The University of Texas must be able to concern himself with both at all times because he doesn't live in an "either/or" kind of world.
BUY or SELL: After one year of seeing Tom Herman in action; he wins a National Championship at Texas?
(Sell) This question kind of mystifies me.
BUY or SELL: In the aftermath of the Texas Bowl, Tom Herman now knows with certainty that he needs a new offensive play caller?
(Buy) Given that he called plays in the bowl game, but only after practicing in bowl workouts, I'd say he definitely understands the play-calling needs in the aftermath of the bowl game.
BUY or SELL: The 10th assistant is an offensive line coach?
(Buy) I think it's much, much more likely than a quarterback/play-calling OC. I'm starting to believe that we'll see more of Lincoln Riley in Tom Herman next year.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman redshirts both freshman QBs next year?
(Sell) I've already gone on the record that I believe one of the two freshmen will be the No .2 by October.
BUY or SELL: It doesn’t matter who are the top two quarterbacks going into next season. They will be compared to Applewhite and Simms by Ketchum?
(Buy) Ok, I'm sure at some point it'll be inevitable that the Applewhite/Simms reference is cited, but do I have a reputation for dragging that situation up that I don't know about? For the record, I looked at the archives of this column and the last time the Applewhite/Simms situation was specifically referenced was 11 months ago.
BUY or SELL: Elko is another home run hire by the Aggies?
(Sell) Stand-up double. Really strong hire, but not one that will move meters.
BUY or SELL: Baker Mayfield is to Lincoln Riley what Johnny Manziel was to Kevin Sumlin?
(Buy) Very, very possible. I mean ... Mayfield is the best player in the history of the program according to a lot of Sooners. We'll know more about Riley in 2018 than we ever learned in 2017.
BUY or SELL: Texas has a future NFL draft pick competing for its starting QB position this fall?
(Sell) No way I'm walking out on that limb at this point with zero evidence that this exists.
BUY or SELL: We make March Madness?
(Sell) It can't be done without Andrew Jones on the floor leading the way and he's not currently on the floor leading the way. I've been an optimist all season, but my optimism is slipping.
BUY or SELL: Shaka?
(Buy) Pure confirmation bias on my part. I can't defend his first three years very strongly, but I still believe in him. Next year will be a do-or-die season for him and I think it all starts to come together.
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
... Prediction: Alabama 24 Georgia 13
... The wildcard round of the NFL playoffs was about as entertaining as the college football bowl season leading up to the playoffs for about 10 hours... and then Carolina/New Orleans happened. What. A. Game.
... Drew Brees actually had a "No, Danny, no!" moment late in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure I would have believed it if I hadn't seen it.
... Derrick Johnson deserves better than to have played his entire career in Kansas City with quarterbacking play that can't get the team out of the Wildcard round.
... Speaking of Derrick Johnson...
... The Falcons look like a team capable of getting back to the Super Bowl.
... I think the possible handshake between Antonio Conte/Jose Mourinho the next time United and Chelsea play will be more highly anticipated than the Super Bowl.
... I couldn't have been alone in enjoying Nottingham Forest "dominate" Arsenal on Sunday.
... I wish nothing but the best for Philippe Coutinho, but I would have liked to have seen him end his tenure with a touch more class, with actions that didn't include putting in a transfer request the day before the season started or claiming two injuries just as two transfer windows opened or letting his entourage play games with the media for almost a year. At the end of the day, he quit on his team in the middle of the season and that truth won't go away quickly.
... Oh captain, my future captain.
No. 9B – Updated Oscar rankings …
Had a chance to catch "Mudbound" this week while I was battling a nasty 24-hour flu of some kind and while the Netflix original isn't a feel-good movie for the family, it's one hell of a well-acted movie.
Any and all acting accolades in the coming weeks from the cast will be well-earned.
My updated Oscars rankings.
(Still need to see: All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Detroit, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, The Post and Roman J. Israel, Esq)
Best Picture
1. Lady Bird
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. The Big Sick
5. Wind River
6. Mudbound
7. The Disaster Artist
8. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Get Out
10. Blake Runner 2049
Best Actor
1. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
2. Adam Driver (The Last Jedi)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
4. Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
5. Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Best Actress
1. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
3. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
4. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
5. Elizabeth Olson (Wind River)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
5. Rob Morgan (Mudbound)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
2. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
3. Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
5. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Best Director
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
2. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
3. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
4. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)
No. 10 – And Finally …
I wanted to end things with a special thanks to the folks over at Covert Ford in Hutto for being the latest partner to join our family at Orangebloods and the new official sponsor of 10TFTW.
They are Longhorns through and through, and I can't wait to make a full introduction later in the week.
Hard to believe there isn't a spot for "Coco" in the top 10.
Has Major been asked any questions about this hire? What has he said?
In today's world, how does a guy like Major NOT get it?
Mind bottled -
In today's world, how does a guy like Major NOT get it?
Mind bottled -
Herman has a long way to go before anyone says "buy" to talk of national titles. While we witnessed moments of brilliance, we also witnessed as many, if not more moments of WTF?
Agree with the Cook comments. I saw Lamar play a couple of games this year. He was not remarkable at all. He was not even close to being the best player on his team.
I doubt he ever becomes a starter
I’m happy the Horns got him, as there must be more to him to be so highly ranked.
He reminds me of fellow Lamar player John Bonney.
I doubt he ever becomes a starter
I’m happy the Horns got him, as there must be more to him to be so highly ranked.
He reminds me of fellow Lamar player John Bonney.
Herman’s tenure at Texas will be determined by what happens on offense this year. If there are no substantive changes, the offense sputters and we go around 7-6 again, he will have to make some changes and then he is “on the clock”. Ketch’s point was dead on in that he has a small window to rapidly being the offense to the level of the defense. There is not one offensive staff member I’m impressed with including Drayton.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman should concern himself with Lincoln Riley, as opposed to Jimbo Fisher? (Sell) The head coach at The University of Texas must be able to concern himself with both at all times because he doesn't live in an "either/or" kind of world.
Herman wasn't hired to have losing records with Zero U, OSU or TCU
Herman wasn't hired to have losing records with Zero U, OSU or TCU
True, but he hasn't really been involved in a game of consequence yet. That matters.
I think this is an example of you believing something you dearly want to believe. I get it.
How does the guy who cheated on his wife with the school trainer not get that rape enablers shouldn't get second chances?
Maybe the answer is that he has a low amount of respect for women in general and class as a person.
Don't look at what he says, look at what he does.
"A long way to go before ANYONE says buy"? Not true because I said "buy". Additionally, Herman really doesn't have a long way to go before others say "buy". Noticeably improved offense, which might be seen as early as September of this year (now that Herman is personally attending to it), will bring half of this board, or more, over to the "buy" side. So, if you're right that no one but me is on the buy side now (and I don't think you are right), then I'm proud to be the first to "buy" Herman winning a NC here and I'll expect an apology from you when half, or more, of this board agree with me next September.
Logic allows one to desire something and to correctly predict something at the same time. Hopefully, you get that.
You'll forgive me if I believe only the drunkest of burnt orange kool-aid drinkers is convinced that Herman is more likely than not going to win a national title.
I think too many of us set the bar too high regarding CTH first season, me included...drank a little too much of the Kool-Aid. As for all intents and purposes, CTH, had his hands full during his first season at UT.
1st, he had to work with what Coach Strong had brought in, as per players
2nd, there was no depth at all on the OL, and again Coach Strong's players
3rd, an OL that was decimated by injuries along with #2
4th, the lack of a go-to QB and really no competition at the position
Now with season 1 behind us, I think CTH has a better grasp on things moving forward and what he needs to do to improve for the upcoming season. We are all playing the QB Armchair game, and if you look at all of the other top coaches, their first seasons were similar as per records after season 1. The degree to which we measure CTH will depend greatly on seasons 2 and 3. Now without even drinking any of the Kool-Aid, I think the right things are being done, but this 10th coach doesn't need to be a Home Run, but a major contributor to the offensive woes, most noticeably the OL. CTH will take care of the QB's but he needs a Horse Whisperer for the OL. I agree with Ketch, and that is that one of the incoming QB's will be #2 behind Sam and that Shane has seen his day's of being on the field in a burnt orange jersey behind him.
1st, he had to work with what Coach Strong had brought in, as per players
2nd, there was no depth at all on the OL, and again Coach Strong's players
3rd, an OL that was decimated by injuries along with #2
4th, the lack of a go-to QB and really no competition at the position
Now with season 1 behind us, I think CTH has a better grasp on things moving forward and what he needs to do to improve for the upcoming season. We are all playing the QB Armchair game, and if you look at all of the other top coaches, their first seasons were similar as per records after season 1. The degree to which we measure CTH will depend greatly on seasons 2 and 3. Now without even drinking any of the Kool-Aid, I think the right things are being done, but this 10th coach doesn't need to be a Home Run, but a major contributor to the offensive woes, most noticeably the OL. CTH will take care of the QB's but he needs a Horse Whisperer for the OL. I agree with Ketch, and that is that one of the incoming QB's will be #2 behind Sam and that Shane has seen his day's of being on the field in a burnt orange jersey behind him.
@Ketchum This is pure speculation but maybe some of the motivation to redo Orlando's contract would be to attempt to keep him a couple of add'l years so that it would free Herman up to call plays. If Orlando is there then TH may feel like he doesn't have to worry about that side of the ball and he can focus on getting the offense right before he loses him. If he lost him early and he doesn't have the offense right it could be purgatory and history repeating itself.
Unfortunately, 2017 did happen...
- Continued horrible special teams (point of emphasis prior to season)
- Questionable personnel management decisions
- Questionable in-game decision making at times
- Stubbornness with OC/Play Calling situation
- Lack of identity on offense
- Failure to commit to the running game
- Losses in 2 games where they had a significant talent advantage.
- Regression/no improvement in individual skill level at OL, WR and QB.
#1 Coach Strong will have the most players drafted since 2007.
#2 Several players were allowed (encouraged) to leave last year.
#3 The problem with the OL was not the injuries, but the scheme they were asked to use. Don't have the talent for it.
#4 I would say that Coach Strong's and Coach Herman's biggest mistake was not getting QB's in here the last two years.
The talent will not be there for the OL to take the next step with this scheme. I am praying for 2019.
Regarding Major Applewhite...I once heard that when you make a moral mistake you get a dot. That dot doesn’t have to define you. But when you make that second big mistake, people start connecting the dots to who you are as a person.
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