Six months ago, Bob Stoops stepped down from his post as Oklahoma head coach after 18 seasons and the landscape for Tom Herman suggested that the bull was in front of him, begging to be grabbed by the horns.
Less than two hours to the east was a floundering Kevin Sumlin, practically begging to be replaced. A little further southeast you had an LSU program that was suddenly being led by someone that operates on Red Bull.
Suddenly, the only real path of resistance for Herman in his quest for supremacy in this state was a program being led by a first-year head coach without any proven chops as a leader of a program.
Herman didn't even have to kick the door down, it was wide open for him ... seemingly.
Six months later, that unproven first-year coach has his team in the playoff with a quarterback destined for the Heisman, while that other team a little southeast across state lines is ranked in the top 15.
And that program less than two hours east of Austin? Yeah, it's not being led by a floundering JAG of a coach. Instead, it has a national championship-winning coach steering the ship.
What does it all mean?
It means that even before you factor in a disappointing 6-6 season with a boatload of questions heading into the off-season, the job that Herman has in front of him has become significantly more difficult. If it seemed as if Herman might be shooting from the layup line this summer, he's been pushed out to the three-point line by Christmas.
It doesn't mean that it's time to panic, not by a long shot. Yet, you're a damned fool if you don't think the hire of Fisher and the season that Oklahoma has had under Lincoln Riley hasn't changed the dynamics in this state in 2018, 2019 and beyond in recruiting. Perhaps Fisher falls on his face in College Station over the long haul, but in the short-term his hire will create some immediate recruiting shockwaves.
Texas hired Herman because decision-makers believed he was an elite coach in the making. Those decision-makers better be right because these parts will no longer be won by someone who is less than that.
The competition at every turn simply won't allow for it.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room ...
The hire of Jimbo Fisher in College Station is an absolute game-changer and represents the single most dynamic hire that any school in this state has probably ever made.
I don't think A&M will ever win a title under Fisher, but make no mistake about the message the school sent by backing up the cash truck and locking him into a guaranteed $75 million - they are in it to win it.
This state hasn't been this competitive since Nick Saban, Mack Brown and Bob Stoops were all in their primes, circa 2003.
No. 3 – An old friend awaits Texas in Houston ...
There's good news and bad news with the announcement on Sunday that the Longhorns will face Missouri in the Texas Bowl.
Let's start with the good news ... this is a winnable game. The Longhorns have played much-better teams than Missouri this season and been on the brink of winning several of those games.
Texas should have a home-field advantage and playing the game in Houston can't be seen as anything but a positive in terms of recruiting in the state's most important hotbed of talent for the Texas program.
The bad news?
Missouri is red-hot. Like surface of the sun hot. It's on a six-game winning streak and has scored AT LEAST 45 points in each of those six wins. Hell, it scored 28 points on the road at Georgia in its last loss back in mid-October.
Junior quarterback Drew Locke has thrown for 42 touchdowns this season and has a season quarterback rating that is about 40 points higher than anything Texas can put on the field, which means that Todd Orlando and the Texas defense will have to bring their big-boy pants to the field because their counterparts can do some serious damage.
You can say that the only teams the Tigers have beaten are losing teams, and that's fair, but this is a team that has consistently played a good brand of football since mid-October.
Bottom line?
It's probably going to take 25+ points to win this game. Can Texas get to 25?
No. 4 – Things I think, I think ...
I. I'm not going to die on a hill for either of UT's quarterbacks going into this game, as neither has played well enough this season to justify someone having too strong of an opinion on the matter. While I think Sam Ehlinger's highs have been higher than Shane Buechele's this season, I totally understand someone being scared to death to have him on the field in the final moments of the game. Personally, I'd play Ehlinger for a number of reasons, but I'd rather have a third option than choose from the two in front of me.
II. In order to win this game, the Longhorns are going to need the type of performance we saw from the defensive unit against USC, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, yet the unit is probably going to have to be great without the likes of Malik Jefferson, DeShon Elliott and Holton Hill, its three best players on the team this season. It's going to require Gary Johnson, Kris Boyd and Brandon Jones to all play the best games they've played all season.
III. The offense desperately needs Collin Johnson to have a monster performance in this game. If not him, someone at the receiver position. Texas can't win without someone among this group playing like one of the best five players on the field.
IV. It goes without saying that this is a monster game for the program, even if it doesn't interest the Texas fan base in wide-spread fashion. The difference between 6-7 and 7-6 feels very, very large.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Any concerns regarding this staff don't include their recruiting abilities and efforts?
(Sell) They've been mostly aces in that department this season, especially in the Greater Houston Area, but it's foothold (or lack thereof) in the Metroplex is a concern, as is the offensive line recruiting. There are definitely areas of improvement that could and need to be made.
BUY or SELL: Drew Merringer will take over the offense play calling. Herman will take the reins for the offense. Tim Beck will be up in the press box doing nothing but updating his resume looking like he is being productive.
(Sell) I don't have any idea why anyone would think Mehringer is the answer to the offensive coaching issues or that Herman would want to test-drive this kind of change in a pretty critical game. I expect to see the coaches handle this game as they have all season.
BUY or SELL: Jerrod Heard is on depth chart at QB in the spring?
(Sell) The Texas staff simply does not view Heard as a quarterback.
BUY or SELL: Jimbo is no more a guarantee at A&M than Herman is at Texas?
(Sell) Jimbo Fisher is one of four active head coaches in college football with a national title on his resume and has won 10, 9, 12, 14, 13, 10, 10 and 5 games in the seasons he has been a head coach. Tom Herman has one season as a head coach out of three where he has finished with as many wins as Fisher's second-worst season. He might fall on his face in College Station, but his history suggests that he's as much as a guarantee as you can make in a hire that isn't named Saban, Meyer or Dabo.
BUY or SELL: Herman is just as shocked at this year's record/results as everyone else?
(Buy) He was very, very confident about this team coming into the season.
BUY or SELL: Greg Fenves counters A&M and finally makes a splash hire in Chris Del Conte?
(Buy) I think Del Conte is going to be the primary target, but I'm not sure that hire would qualify as a "splash". A splash for whom?
BUY or SELL: Herman actually signs a top-5 class this off-season?
(Sell) Man, it's going to be close, but as it relates to the Rivals rankings, I believe Texas will finish just outside the top five. Barely.
BUY or SELL: 2008 BCS Rankings after championship weekend final ranking. 1) Blow U 12-1, 2) FL 12-1, 3) Texas 11-1, 4) Bama 12-1, 5) USC 11-1, 6) Utah 12-0, 7) Sand Aggie 11-1, and 8) Penn St 11-1
Texas makes it into one of the four playoff spots had they done this format back then?
(Buy) It would have been Oklahoma vs. Alabama, along with Texas vs. Florida.Maybe a Texas vs. Oklahoma rematch for the title.
BUY or SELL: Baker is a better college QB than Colt?
(Buy) This conversation will be a moot point if Oklahoma wins a national title, but the reality is that when you look at the senior seasons for both players, Baker was light years better than Colt and over the course of his entire Oklahoma career, his quarterback rating is a full 35 points higher. Thirty-five.
I'll duck now.
No. 6 – If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Auburn
8. Central Florida
9. Wisconsin
10. Penn State
No. 7 – Dis gonna be fun ...
I understand that many don't like seeing Alabama make it into the top four and some would rather go Christmas shopping at the mall than watch Oklahoma in the playoff ...
But ...
Blemishes and all, the two match-ups the college football season/committee have given us are pretty enticing.
Clemson vs. Alabama - part III?
Georgia vs. Oklahoma?
Yes, please. That's a double-header full of fun football right there for the average college football fan who just wants to see interesting games with interesting story-lines.
Give me Oklahoma and Alabama in the national title game, with the Tide winning the title. No team left in the field can do to Alabama what Auburn did.
No. 8 - It ain't football, but ...
* The Texas volleyball team is in the Sweet 16 and faces Utah on Friday night for the chance to meet Stanford for a trip to the Final Four.
* The women's basketball team is ranked No. 2 in the nation after smashing previously undefeated Georgia on Sunday and faces off with Tennessee on the road a week from today.
* Shaka Smart returns to VCU on Tuesday night, as the men's basketball team continues to climb towards a top-25 ranking.
See ... it ain't all bad!
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
* USC vs Ohio State is a hell of a Cotton Bowl match-up. I think USC is the team outside of the playoff that no one inside of the playoff would want to play.
* Clemson beat Miami like it was the 1991 Cotton Bowl.
* J.K. Dobbins broke Maurice Clarett's freshman rushing record at Ohio State. Yup, that was a big recruiting loss.
* I might become the next Sugar Ray Leonard, but I am announcing my retirement from fantasy football.
* The season for the Texans can't end soon enough.
* Texas-Ex Adrian Phillips was a solid college player, but he's turned into a damned fine pro player.
* I don't know if I have ever been more wrong about an NFL team that I have been wrong about the Saints this season.
* Mike Zimmer is one hell of a coach. He should be coaching America's Team, not ol' Red Ball.
* Attaboy, Ricki Fowler. A final-round 61 is a way to make me take notice of you on a weekend when Tiger finished in the Top 10.
* David De Gea is a damn witch. I'm guessing wood and wine tasted better for Jose Mourinho all weekend after that win over Arsenal.
* LeBron's next team... the Philadelphia 76ers.
No. 10 – And Finally …
The dream continues. Nothing but love for the best AISD of the last decade and the best MAC squad in school history.
Less than two hours to the east was a floundering Kevin Sumlin, practically begging to be replaced. A little further southeast you had an LSU program that was suddenly being led by someone that operates on Red Bull.
Suddenly, the only real path of resistance for Herman in his quest for supremacy in this state was a program being led by a first-year head coach without any proven chops as a leader of a program.
Herman didn't even have to kick the door down, it was wide open for him ... seemingly.
Six months later, that unproven first-year coach has his team in the playoff with a quarterback destined for the Heisman, while that other team a little southeast across state lines is ranked in the top 15.
And that program less than two hours east of Austin? Yeah, it's not being led by a floundering JAG of a coach. Instead, it has a national championship-winning coach steering the ship.
What does it all mean?
It means that even before you factor in a disappointing 6-6 season with a boatload of questions heading into the off-season, the job that Herman has in front of him has become significantly more difficult. If it seemed as if Herman might be shooting from the layup line this summer, he's been pushed out to the three-point line by Christmas.
It doesn't mean that it's time to panic, not by a long shot. Yet, you're a damned fool if you don't think the hire of Fisher and the season that Oklahoma has had under Lincoln Riley hasn't changed the dynamics in this state in 2018, 2019 and beyond in recruiting. Perhaps Fisher falls on his face in College Station over the long haul, but in the short-term his hire will create some immediate recruiting shockwaves.
Texas hired Herman because decision-makers believed he was an elite coach in the making. Those decision-makers better be right because these parts will no longer be won by someone who is less than that.
The competition at every turn simply won't allow for it.
No. 2 – The elephant in the room ...
The hire of Jimbo Fisher in College Station is an absolute game-changer and represents the single most dynamic hire that any school in this state has probably ever made.
I don't think A&M will ever win a title under Fisher, but make no mistake about the message the school sent by backing up the cash truck and locking him into a guaranteed $75 million - they are in it to win it.
This state hasn't been this competitive since Nick Saban, Mack Brown and Bob Stoops were all in their primes, circa 2003.
No. 3 – An old friend awaits Texas in Houston ...
There's good news and bad news with the announcement on Sunday that the Longhorns will face Missouri in the Texas Bowl.
Let's start with the good news ... this is a winnable game. The Longhorns have played much-better teams than Missouri this season and been on the brink of winning several of those games.
Texas should have a home-field advantage and playing the game in Houston can't be seen as anything but a positive in terms of recruiting in the state's most important hotbed of talent for the Texas program.
The bad news?
Missouri is red-hot. Like surface of the sun hot. It's on a six-game winning streak and has scored AT LEAST 45 points in each of those six wins. Hell, it scored 28 points on the road at Georgia in its last loss back in mid-October.
Junior quarterback Drew Locke has thrown for 42 touchdowns this season and has a season quarterback rating that is about 40 points higher than anything Texas can put on the field, which means that Todd Orlando and the Texas defense will have to bring their big-boy pants to the field because their counterparts can do some serious damage.
You can say that the only teams the Tigers have beaten are losing teams, and that's fair, but this is a team that has consistently played a good brand of football since mid-October.
Bottom line?
It's probably going to take 25+ points to win this game. Can Texas get to 25?
No. 4 – Things I think, I think ...
I. I'm not going to die on a hill for either of UT's quarterbacks going into this game, as neither has played well enough this season to justify someone having too strong of an opinion on the matter. While I think Sam Ehlinger's highs have been higher than Shane Buechele's this season, I totally understand someone being scared to death to have him on the field in the final moments of the game. Personally, I'd play Ehlinger for a number of reasons, but I'd rather have a third option than choose from the two in front of me.
II. In order to win this game, the Longhorns are going to need the type of performance we saw from the defensive unit against USC, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, yet the unit is probably going to have to be great without the likes of Malik Jefferson, DeShon Elliott and Holton Hill, its three best players on the team this season. It's going to require Gary Johnson, Kris Boyd and Brandon Jones to all play the best games they've played all season.
III. The offense desperately needs Collin Johnson to have a monster performance in this game. If not him, someone at the receiver position. Texas can't win without someone among this group playing like one of the best five players on the field.
IV. It goes without saying that this is a monster game for the program, even if it doesn't interest the Texas fan base in wide-spread fashion. The difference between 6-7 and 7-6 feels very, very large.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: Any concerns regarding this staff don't include their recruiting abilities and efforts?
(Sell) They've been mostly aces in that department this season, especially in the Greater Houston Area, but it's foothold (or lack thereof) in the Metroplex is a concern, as is the offensive line recruiting. There are definitely areas of improvement that could and need to be made.
BUY or SELL: Drew Merringer will take over the offense play calling. Herman will take the reins for the offense. Tim Beck will be up in the press box doing nothing but updating his resume looking like he is being productive.
(Sell) I don't have any idea why anyone would think Mehringer is the answer to the offensive coaching issues or that Herman would want to test-drive this kind of change in a pretty critical game. I expect to see the coaches handle this game as they have all season.
BUY or SELL: Jerrod Heard is on depth chart at QB in the spring?
(Sell) The Texas staff simply does not view Heard as a quarterback.
BUY or SELL: Jimbo is no more a guarantee at A&M than Herman is at Texas?
(Sell) Jimbo Fisher is one of four active head coaches in college football with a national title on his resume and has won 10, 9, 12, 14, 13, 10, 10 and 5 games in the seasons he has been a head coach. Tom Herman has one season as a head coach out of three where he has finished with as many wins as Fisher's second-worst season. He might fall on his face in College Station, but his history suggests that he's as much as a guarantee as you can make in a hire that isn't named Saban, Meyer or Dabo.
BUY or SELL: Herman is just as shocked at this year's record/results as everyone else?
(Buy) He was very, very confident about this team coming into the season.
BUY or SELL: Greg Fenves counters A&M and finally makes a splash hire in Chris Del Conte?
(Buy) I think Del Conte is going to be the primary target, but I'm not sure that hire would qualify as a "splash". A splash for whom?
BUY or SELL: Herman actually signs a top-5 class this off-season?
(Sell) Man, it's going to be close, but as it relates to the Rivals rankings, I believe Texas will finish just outside the top five. Barely.
BUY or SELL: 2008 BCS Rankings after championship weekend final ranking. 1) Blow U 12-1, 2) FL 12-1, 3) Texas 11-1, 4) Bama 12-1, 5) USC 11-1, 6) Utah 12-0, 7) Sand Aggie 11-1, and 8) Penn St 11-1
Texas makes it into one of the four playoff spots had they done this format back then?
(Buy) It would have been Oklahoma vs. Alabama, along with Texas vs. Florida.Maybe a Texas vs. Oklahoma rematch for the title.
BUY or SELL: Baker is a better college QB than Colt?
(Buy) This conversation will be a moot point if Oklahoma wins a national title, but the reality is that when you look at the senior seasons for both players, Baker was light years better than Colt and over the course of his entire Oklahoma career, his quarterback rating is a full 35 points higher. Thirty-five.
I'll duck now.
No. 6 – If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Auburn
8. Central Florida
9. Wisconsin
10. Penn State
No. 7 – Dis gonna be fun ...
I understand that many don't like seeing Alabama make it into the top four and some would rather go Christmas shopping at the mall than watch Oklahoma in the playoff ...
But ...
Blemishes and all, the two match-ups the college football season/committee have given us are pretty enticing.
Clemson vs. Alabama - part III?
Georgia vs. Oklahoma?
Yes, please. That's a double-header full of fun football right there for the average college football fan who just wants to see interesting games with interesting story-lines.
Give me Oklahoma and Alabama in the national title game, with the Tide winning the title. No team left in the field can do to Alabama what Auburn did.
No. 8 - It ain't football, but ...
* The Texas volleyball team is in the Sweet 16 and faces Utah on Friday night for the chance to meet Stanford for a trip to the Final Four.
* The women's basketball team is ranked No. 2 in the nation after smashing previously undefeated Georgia on Sunday and faces off with Tennessee on the road a week from today.
* Shaka Smart returns to VCU on Tuesday night, as the men's basketball team continues to climb towards a top-25 ranking.
See ... it ain't all bad!
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
* USC vs Ohio State is a hell of a Cotton Bowl match-up. I think USC is the team outside of the playoff that no one inside of the playoff would want to play.
* Clemson beat Miami like it was the 1991 Cotton Bowl.
* J.K. Dobbins broke Maurice Clarett's freshman rushing record at Ohio State. Yup, that was a big recruiting loss.
* I might become the next Sugar Ray Leonard, but I am announcing my retirement from fantasy football.
* The season for the Texans can't end soon enough.
* Texas-Ex Adrian Phillips was a solid college player, but he's turned into a damned fine pro player.
* I don't know if I have ever been more wrong about an NFL team that I have been wrong about the Saints this season.
* Mike Zimmer is one hell of a coach. He should be coaching America's Team, not ol' Red Ball.
* Attaboy, Ricki Fowler. A final-round 61 is a way to make me take notice of you on a weekend when Tiger finished in the Top 10.
* David De Gea is a damn witch. I'm guessing wood and wine tasted better for Jose Mourinho all weekend after that win over Arsenal.
* LeBron's next team... the Philadelphia 76ers.
No. 10 – And Finally …
The dream continues. Nothing but love for the best AISD of the last decade and the best MAC squad in school history.
