20 Days.
Hell, it might be 19 by the time you read this.
The 2020 season creeps closer and closer, making me feel a combination of relief and disbelief at the same time. It's starting to feel like football season is going to happen ... I think. Of course, last week I wrote an article about Texas recruiting at the quarterback position like it was 2002 all over again, only to see Texas lose a quarterback commitment I've compared to a young Donovan McNabb less than 24 hours later, so things I think are going to happen have been volatile as of late.
But, I digress.
As I was saying before I momentarily distracted myself, we're 20 freaking days from the start of the Texas football season and in announcing that truth I have to make a bit of an awkward confession ...
I don't know what to make of this Texas football team going into the season.
Even in years when I've been absolutely wrong about the end of the season results (see last year), I was convinced I had an idea of exactly what was coming, usually spending months trying to decide which side of the established over/under of wins I felt was the smarter lean.
This year?
10-0? I'm not blinking (although maybe I should). 9-1? I'm not blinking. 8-2? 7-3? 6-4?
The reality of this team going into the season is that it will enter a rare 10-game schedule without many knowns outside of the quarterback position, which is kind of a big deal in both respects.
I don't know what the running game is going to look like, not truly.
I don't know what to make of a wide receiver position that can't seem to stay healthy and is far from settled as training camp comes to a conclusion, although few would suggest talent is a true concern.
I don't know how much I can trust an offensive line that has Denzel Okafor and Christian Jones holding down the right side of the line.
I don't know how much to make out of the rave reviews of the defensive line when so many rave reviews over the last decade have only served as precursors for the larger problems that existed on the other side of the rave reviews.
I don’t know what to make of a secondary that I didn't know what to make of a season ago.
Hell, I don't know what's fair or unfair to ask of this set of coaches that is still having to slowly install schemes on both sides of the ball.
Honestly, I'm not trying to stress anyone out. Far from it. I'm just telling you that every day when I learn a little something about the team and the direction it seems to be going in, I keep finding myself asking more questions. Twenty days from the start of the season, I'm still in that same place and it's starting to dawn on me that I'm not going to start getting answers until September when the lights come on (assuming they still come on).
Yet, all of that uncertainty aside, I find myself thinking a lot about the one constant thing I do know about ... the starting quarterback. In the last two seasons when Sam Ehlinger has been healthy, he's stood toe to toe with some of the best quarterback opposition possible and more than held his own. He's outplayed the likes of Kyler Murray, Will Grier and Jake Fromm in his career, while nearly going toe to toe with a true historic supernova in Joe Burrow.
The final steps Ehlingher needs to take in his career have nothing to do with his ability to play at an elite level. Merely, his only questions center around his ability to stay healthy and overall consistency, two things that often go hand in hand.
When Pro Football Focus named Ehlinger as the sixth best quarterback in the nation behind the likes of Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) Justin Fields (Ohio State), Jamie Newman (Georgia), Sam Howell (North Carolina) and Tanner Morgan (Minnesota), I found myself thinking that only Lawrence and Fields have earned the right to absolutely be ranked ahead of Ehlinger.
Newman? Howell and Morgan? Not for me. Not right this second.
Therefore, whatever we think of the health and the consistency issues that follow him, his unknowns are less of an issue than every other quarterback in the country, with the exception of two.
That's it.
For all of the things we don't know, what we do know is that Texas should have a quarterback advantage in every game it plays this season, unless it gets into a tussle with Clemson and Ohio State. Games aren't won and lost on paper, so having that certain quarterback edge on paper will only go so far. No doubt.
Yet, I would contend that if you're only going to know one thing about your football team coming into the season, you'd rather have that known revolve around the quarterback position because that known often means more than a ton of unknowns combined.
No. 2 - Say goodbye to scholarship limits for a while ...
With the announcement on Friday that the NCAA Division I board of directors voted to give all fall sports a mulligan on eligibility for the 2020 season, it's time to inspect exactly what that it could mean for the Longhorns in the immediate short-term basis going into the 2021 season. Unfortunately for the Tom Herman and Co., a small senior class limits the options of sneaking an extra season of eligibility to the following players (not including previously protected opt-outs Marquez Bimage and Daniel Young):
Quarterback Sam Ehlinger, tight end Cade Brewer, offensive lineman Denzel Okafor, offensive lineman Derek Kerstter, offensive lineman Tope Imade, defensive end Taquan Graham, defensive end Jacoby Jones and defensive back Chris Brown.
Let's explore each of the eight.
Ehlinger: I know everyone is dreaming of getting two more seasons out of its favorite son, but I think it's very unlikely, barring his 2020 season going completely off the rails. Ehlinger is a young man with NFL aspirations and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he would have absolutely spurned the NFL in 2021 if the 2020 season had been canceled. Knowing that, it's just hard for me to believe that he'd wait until 2022 to begin his NFL quest.
Brewer: Considering he never redshirted and enters this season with only a single season of experience under his belt, I'd have to think he'd give serious consideration to sticking around for another season and I'd have to believe Herman would do cartwheels over the idea of having him for another season.
Okafor: Of all the players on the list, his name might be blinking in bright lights the most for me. Set to potentially start for a full season for the first time in his career, it might be quite beneficial for him to return for a second season as a starter. Knowing the concerns that the team has going into next season with that group, he's another guy that Herman would likely celebrate a return from.
Kersetter: He's on pace to have 47+ starts under his belt after this season. I'm not sure his NFL stock would ever be higher than it will be in 2021.
Imade: He's played in three career games in the four years he's already been on campus. None of us should be surprised if he walks away if his playing time status doesn't change significantly.
Graham: Feels like a 50-50 coin-flip going into the season. If he has any success at all this year, the smart money has to be on him going to the NFL.
Jones: He feels like a potential perfect candidate.
Brown: If he stays healthy, it's hard to think sticking around for a sixth year would look more appealing than heading into a weaker NFL Draft, but it will be a situation worth monitoring.
The smart money would have Texas getting extra years from Brewer, Okafor and Jones, along with possibly Graham and Brown.
No. 3 - Scattershooting on Longhorns football ...
... This dude having a solid scrimmage on Saturday and causing a bit of an Internet meltdown is the most normal thing about all of 2020.
... Stay healthy, Tarik Black. I can't believe I'm having to write that after a few weeks of camp.
... I almost wrote an open letter to Brennan Eagles, begging him to not make me look like an idiot for becoming President of the Give Some Damn Respect To Brennan Eagles Fan Club, and I can't believe I'm having to write that after a few weeks of camp.
... The only two words I can think of when I think of Jordan Whittington: Don't panic.
... As soon as I read @Anwar Richardson's note on Texas using 12-personnel for "90-percent" of Saturday's scrimmage, I knew a few heads were going to explode. I feel you.
... Is Malcolm Epps the most slept on sophomore in school history? I'm not sure I've ever seen a freshman catch 20 passes and make seven starts, only to be mostly completely dismissed as a potential impact piece in future seasons by a large portion of the Texas fan base. We're a group that usually goes ga-ga for players with such profiles and it's completely skipped Epps.
... Is Chris Brown the most slept on senior defensive back with double-digit starts since ... I dunno ... in a while?
... If I'm Epps, Jared Wiley and Braydon Liebrock, I'm hoping Brewer has a good enough season to head on off to the NFL. All three guys are going to want his snaps in 2021.
... It doesn't feel like anything game-changing has happened at the running back position.
... I'd pay $20 to watch the practice film of that Okafor/Jones combo on the right side of the offensive line.
... Little birdies are worried about what's behind all of those starting linemen. Might not impact 2020 if the group stays healthy, but there all kinds of questions about this group when peeking into 2021.
... D’Shawn Jamison becoming a star in the Texas secondary? Instant reaction? Right on time.
... Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton are being talked about exactly the way you'd want a couple of in-state top-10 prospects to be talked about after a few weeks of practice. They both appear to be legit early on.
... Not a single young offensive lineman on the second- and third-string offensive line is getting reviews like the second- and third string defensive line, which should tell us all we need to know about the battles between those groups.
... Color me surprised we're reading about Jaylan Ford this early in his career. Say what you want about Herman and Co., but they have showed an ability to identify underrated talent. It might be Herman’s most underrated quality skill.
No. 4 - 3 Things About New Texas Quarterback Commit Charles Wright ...
a. Shout out to the AISD for producing a rare Texas player.
b. The last Austin High quarterback prospect that I can remember off the top of my head is Grant Elam from the mid 90s. This is a huge deal for the Austin High community.
c. From a talent standpoint, Wright shows flashes of a skill set that will translate to the next level. While a lot of his highlight film throws are deep balls, the area of his game that impresses me the most is the flashes he shows in the intermediate passing game. If you go to his HUDL highlight film, find this throw at the 1:30 mark.
You can see the throw he needs to make. You can see the window. You can see the linebacker closing down on him out of the side of his vision.
Wright is in the process of throwing this ball on a line. This is not a ball with much air under it.
Zing. It's not a difficult throw ... for a high-level quarterback prospect, but it's the throw a quarterback aspiring to be the starting quarterback at a school like Texas has to be able to make and in my mind, Wright is at his best when he's in the pocket and throwing the ball down the field in the intermediate passing game.
If he can stick this throw inside the speed of the college game, he's got a real chance.
No. 5 - Other than former Texas DBs and Duane Akina ...
I'm not sure I've ever heard an NFL player give more love to his college position coach than Zeke Elliott gives Stan Drayton.
No. 6 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) This isn't a heavy sell, but I don't get the sense today that Tom Herman is looking to move Herb Hand.
(Buy) The only saving grace would be producing an ass-kicking offensive line on the field in 2020 or absolute certainty that he can close the deal with the stars in the 2022 class. Missing on this decision could prove to be deadly.
(Sell) I don't give coaches in year four "transition" classes. That has never once crossed my mind.
(Sell) Texas is not ready to be in SEC company, even if it has recently displayed some SEC values.
(Buy) Yeah, man. Twelve months ago, this thing looked like a potential No. 1 class in the making.
(Buy) It sure as hell looks like he's going to bring the entire Metroplex.
(Sell) I'll have Kopp ranked ahead of Wright in the updated LSR rankings coming out this week.
(Sell) I don't know what "Major Applewhite" type of quarterback means, but Major competed for a starting position and played for four seasons and I don't expect that from Wright.
(Sell) It is Trevor Lawrence's trophy to lose.
(Sell) I want to buy so bad, but that feels like confirmation bias at this point.
(Buy) Consider me very confident. Come on down, Thiago!
No. 7 - Deserving of its own section!!!!!
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the world of sports ...
... Get better, Max Duggan. We're all rooting for you.
... I have no idea what is going on in the NFL pre-season other than Earl Thomas got sent home this weekend for apparently almost fighting a teammate in practice. Then they fired him. How did that get him sent home and fired? Dudes get into tussles in camp all the time. Something ain't right there. Just how bad was it behind the scenes that he's been run out of Baltimore?
... Come on down to Dallas ... right?
... Chris Paul missed a reverse lay-up at the buzzer to win the game in game three against the Rockets and then seemed to make 10 shots in overtime that were 100 times more difficult than the one he missed only moments earlier. The Thunder might prove to be a tough out yet.
... Getting swept by the Celtics somehow felt way worse than any of those seasons that the Sixers tanked in for a few seasons. I don't know what the hell you do with this team.
... My Sixers miss Jimmy Butler something fierce.
... My Phillies had a bullpen ERA of 7.59 through the first 21 games of the season going into the weekend against the Braves. The Phillies trades for former Longhorns pitcher Brandon Workman in an effort to save their season. Come on, Brandon, no pressure.
... Jordan Speith missed the cut this weekend at The Northern Trust in Boston and is ranked 71st in the world. His last 11 finishes looks like this: Missed cut, 72, 71, 30, 13, missed cut, 54, 68, 10, 58 and 59.
... Bayern Munich are deserving Champions League winners, but my goodness, PSG left some chances on the pitch. Mbappe will have nightmares about his miss from seven yards out in the second half for the rest of his life. That game could have easily gone the other way, but to the victors go the spoils. Congrats, Bayern.
... The MLS has a problem when the LA Galaxy and LAFC play and it barely registers a ripple. Anyone seen Chicharito? Thank goodness that dude won't be playing for Austin FC.
... I sure know what Smokey from Friday would say about this...
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Highest Texas prep quarterbacks ...
This isn't my opinion or anything that we can argue over. It's just a look at the top 10 highest rated quarterbacks from the state of Texas since the modern era of the Rivals.com rankings (2002).
The list is inspired by the fact that 2022 commitment Quinn Ewers is currently ranked No. 6 in the Rivals100.
10. Jevan Snead (Class of 2006 - No. 61 overall)
9. Tyrik Rollison (Class of 2009 - No. 60 overall)
8. Stephen McGee (Class of 2004 - No. 50 overall)
7. Robbie Reid (Class of 2004 - No. 41 overall)
6. Garrett Gilbert (Class of 2009 - No. 18 overall)
5. Russell Shepard (Class of 2009 - No. 7 overall)
4. Matt Stafford (Class of 2006 - No. 6 overall)
2T. Ryan Mallett (Class of 2007 - No. 4 overall)
2T. Rhett Bomar (Class of 2004 - No. 4 overall)
1. Vince Young (Class of 2002 - No. 1 overall)
Interestingly, seven of the top 10 and the entire top six all made it to the NFL to some degree. Reid and Snead had varying degrees of success, while Rollison is arguably the biggest quarterback bust of the last two decades when you consider he's the only player in the top 10 that never so much as threw a pass in college, let alone start a game.
No.10 - And finally...
I'm in.
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