We didn't know it at the time last summer, but when Isaiah Neyor went down with a torn ACL on August 14, the chances of the Texas Longhorns playing for the Big 12 championship game went down the drains.
Oh, I know some of you will disagree with me.
You watched the games. You've got the "what ifs" memorized. What if Quinn doesn't get hurt against Alabama? What if Bijan doesn't fumble in overtime in Lubbock? What if Texas doesn't collapse in Stillwater? Hell, what if Spencer Sanders had just played like the normal Spencer Sanders? What if anyone makes a play on offense against TCU on accident?
Hey man, I get it.
Yet, there's a part of me that looks back on last season and realizes that the offense that Steve Sarkisian spent eight months working to put together in 2022 never even made it to the first game before Sarkisian was forced to reconcile with what is said about man's best-laid plans.
Sarkisian gave us a glimpse of that plan early in last year's spring game.
Remember this?
With two All-American sports cars in the backfield at running back, another at wide receiver who set records as a freshman in 2021 and a second-year sports car at tight end that Sarkisian wasn't even sure of 10 months ago, Sarkisian needed three things to happen in the fall in order for his offense to go nuclear enough to win the Big 12.
a. Get good enough offensive line play that would be depending on a lot of youth.
b. Develop a game-changer at the outside receiver position opposite Xavier Worthy that would give the Longhorns a player that could take double-team pressure off of Worthy and give the offense a player that could take the top off the defense.
c. Get very good quarterback play from redshirt freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers.
As it turns out, the Longhorns got the offensive line play they would have hoped for, but need No. 2 went out the door with the injury to Neyor and it's hard not to wonder how much that impacted Ewers' ability to be very good.
Sarkisian didn't have an insurance policy for the Neyor injury. When he went out of the lineup, a black hole of offensive unproductiveness replaced him.
The foursome of Casey Cain, Savion Redd, Troy Omeire and Agiye Hall combined to catch 11 passes for 143 yards and a single touchdown in 12 regular-season games.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was your Z-receiver production in 2022 prior to the bowl game when Cain had a four-reception breakout in the Alamo Bowl. In case you're wondering what those numbers are supposed to mean ... it's terrible. Vomit on your shirt terrible.
So terrible that Sarkisian simply couldn't risk the same thing happening in 2023, come hell or high water.
Enter Georgia transfer AD Mitchell.
With Mitchell's arrival coupled with the return of the rehabbing Neyor, partnered with the arrival of incoming freshman Johntay Cook (do not forget about him), Sarkisian suddenly has an insurance policy in the passing game that will protect it on paper should one piece of the plan not be available or performing.
It's not that Mitchell is automatically going to be one of the best wide receivers in the Big 12 that matters as much as the fact that he gives the Longhorns a significant upgrade over a black hole that previously existed.
If Mitchell catches 33 passes for 432 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2023, it would represent disappointing but decent production. Decent production that would represent 3X the production from four players worth of contributions from the previous season. That's how poor the position was in 2022. It makes very modest production look like the reinvention of the wheel.
There was so much focus on Xavier Worthy's body language last year that the much uglier truths of the passing game kind of went right by without much acknowledgement. Take Worthy and Jordan Whittington out of the puzzle and what remained at the position opposite Worthy at outside receiver was worth 1 reception for 12 yards and 0.1 touchdowns per game.
Suddenly, Sarkisian's desired plan for the offense is back in play. The arrival of Mitchell gives the Longhorns a big-bodied, big-play specialist on the outside that can blow the top off of a defense because of his ability to out-physical and out-play opposing defenses. Meanwhile, Sarksiain can stop trying to turn Worthy into Cliff Branch 2.0 and use his talent in the short and intermediate areas of the field where he does his best work. On top of that, he has an all-America level tight end to work with and a savvy veteran in the slot
As stated previously, if anything happens at the wide receiver position, you've got Neyor and Cook (at a minimum) to fill any voids that might exist.
All that would appear to be left from a needs standpoint to have the passing game that can lead Texas to a Big 12 championship is pointing at Ewers and the quarterback position as a whole.
It feels as simple as that.
No. 2 - UT's Junior Day (Super Blue Chip discussion)
Although we might end up adding a few more to the list as the 2024 and 2025 rankings continue to evolve, here are the nine super blue chips prospects I counted from the day's festivities.
Getting my No. 1 overall in-state prospect Micah Hudson on campus on Saturday was significant. The competition for Hudson is steep and if you're the Longhorns, you just have to keep getting him to come back. Once this spring is a must. Again for the summer. Just keep plugging away for the best prospect in Texas in 2024.
Will the Longhorns ever make a dent at IMG? The nation's top 2024 running back was on hand (with his parents to boot) and the Longhorns had Bijan Robinson on hand to help make an impression. Tennessee and ... *gulp* ... Georgia probably make up the primary competition at this stage of his recruitment and it seems very clear that the Longhorns are squarely in the mix. The thing that stands out the most about this weekend is that he brought his parents. It completely changes the dynamics of a potential official visit in the coming months, knowing that a return visit won't be spent on a cram-session of introducing the city and the campus.
There's a long way to go for the 2025 prospects, but the Longhorns are clearly trying to make a dent in the Mater Dei pipeline.
Have we mentioned that likely new wide receivers coach Chris Jackson is a Mater Dei ex? Probably. Have we mentioned it enough? No.
Uini keeps talking like a guy that doesn't want people to think his recruitment is a forgone conclusion, but he just keeps showing up to Texas. Time after time. He just keeps showing up.
There's already speculation that Robinson is more likely to stay close to home than not. That makes the likes of Florida State, Florida and Miami the teams to beat at this point in his recruitment, but if the Longhorns are going to make a move that puts them in the position to be a finalist, you probably needed to get him on campus this weekend and not later in the spring.
Oklahoma, Ohio State and Notre Dame are going to be tough to overcome, but you can't overcome deficits unless you can make a statement in the times when he's on campus. The Longhorns have a lot of lifting to do in his recruitment. They'll need to get him on campus once in the spring and probably again with an official visit to pull this off, but step one for the final 4-6 months or so of his recruitment occurred.
You can feel the Longhorns dragging Black into the fold. Landing Jelani McDonald was the first step. Getting Black on campus this week was a big second step and it sounds like the Longhorns continued to make a strong impression. We're officially at the point where it would be a massive disappointment if the Longhorns don't land Black.
Alabama is going to be tough to overcome for this top 2025 prospect, but there's a long way to go in his recruitment and if the Longhorns can get him on campus 5 more times (spring practice/game, summer event, 2023 home game, 2024 junior day and a 2024 official visit) before he makes his decision, Texas will have a very real shot.
It feels like the best thing the Longhorns can do with Allen is make sure that his brother is still very much happy to be in the program when Jaden signs in 11 months.
Overall thoughts on the super blues on hand ...
Uini, Black and Allen feel like future Longhorns.
I really like UT's chances with Gibson.
The other five prospects on hand, including Hudson, are going to require more chipping away. The good news for the Longhorns is that they were on campus and gave them a chance to do some chipping away.
No. 3 - Additional Junior Day Scattershots ...
... In addition to the super blue chips on hand, there was a large pool of national blue chips from the 2024 and 2025 classes on campus, including ...
2024 APB Bryan Jackson
2024 RB Taylor Tatum
2025 WR Kaliq Lockett
2024 OL DeAndre Carter
2024 OL Daniel Cruz
2024 DL KingJoseph Edwards
2025 DL Landon Rink
2024 DL Jeffery Rush
2024 LB Dylan Williams
2024 LB Justin Williams
2025 LB Kelvion Riggins
2024 Kolaj Cobbins
2024 CB Braylon Conley
2024 CB Ju'Juan Johnson
2024 S Corian Gipson
... If there's a disappointing element to the weekend, it probably had less to do with the out-of-state prospects and 2025 kids that showed up and more to do with the 2024 in-state super blue chips that didn't.
Of the current top in-state prospects from the 2024 class, only four from my current LSR top 10, four of Rivals' top 10, four of 247's top 10, five of ESPN's top 10 and four of On3's top 10 prospects all showed up.
... That being said, the players from the class of 2025 on hand was stellar. From my count, six of the state's top-17 prospects, all of whom made the initial Rivals100 for 2025, were on hand for the festivities. There's a very good chance that a number of those 2025 prospects will emerge into super blue chips, if they weren't already listed in that tier.
... 2024 OL Ory Williams just feels like a Kyle Flood protégé waiting to happen. In addition to yet another visit to the 40 Acres, it's impossible for his size (6-8, 310+) to go unnoticed. Considering he lives right down I-35, I'm just going to assume Flood is going to get this kid.
... In general, Flood loves size more than he loves rankings.
... For those wondering about the lack of action at the event, keep in mind that most of the players that really matter and a number of those that eventually won't eventually matter already owned offers. Mack Brown would blush at the number of players on campus who already held offers before arriving on Saturday. Hell, he might have fainted.
... Consider me a little surprised that 2025 wide receiver Kaliq Lockett didn't get an offer on Saturday.
... It's going to be a race for the running backs in the 2024 class to grab one of the two spots at the position in the 2024 recruiting class. One spot is going to be held for Gibson. That means that there's one spot left (until Gibson's decision is made). Yes, Bryan Jackson and Taylor Tatum ... I have my eyes on you.
... I really need to dig into 2024 OG prospect Daniel Cruz's film a little more. It's kind of interesting to see that Flood is so hot to trot over the 6-4, 287-pound Cruz simply because he's body and frame just aren't as massive as the dudes he usually falls in love with. The kid has a five-star smile, though.
... The Longhorns have to find a way to get Duncanville 5-star Colin Simmons back on campus. After visiting Georgia with his family last weekend, it looks like the Dawgs have joined LSU as a top 2. It sounds like his mom loved Athens. The Longhorns have to find a way to turn his head in the next few months.
... It's less of a concern than it is with Simmons, but Melissa defensive end Nigel Smith is another guy you'd liked to have had on campus this weekend. Trailing for the two best defensive linemen in the state is less than optimal.
... It feels like former WR commit Aeryn Hampton is begging Alabama to take him at this point. He's been pretty open about how much he likes Alabama. He's another guy that you would have like to have had on campus, especially visiting Alabama last weekend.
No. 4 - Come on down, Chris Jackson ...
The Texas Longhorns shouldn't have to wait much longer for their new wide receivers coach.
Barring something completely unforeseen, it's going to be Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers coach Chris Jackson.
Although he doesn't have a background in recruiting, he is supposed to have a great personality that is expected to translate in recruiting. If nothing else, Sarkisian can just send him home to his old high school - Santa Ana (Ca.) Mater Dei.
Mater Dei is loaded in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
Those are just the 2024 and 2025 super blue and potential super blue prospects. The school already has 10 different 2026 prospects in the Rivals database, including a quarterback with the last name Leinart.
I'm not saying that Jackson was hired because of his Mater Dei ties. What I am saying is that Sark wants into Mater Dei on an annual basis and having an "in" to that school couldn't have hurt his resume.
No. 5 - Texas offered WHO?!?!?!? ...
The Bo Davis offer express reached an interesting destination over the weekend.
Meet Jordan Davis from Monticello, Mississippi.
Before this weekend, he didn't have a recruiting profile in any of the major recruiting services. He didn't own a single major college offer, either.
Now he's in the Rivals system. Hell, who knows? Maybe the offers will start pouring in. Or maybe he's going to be the next member of the 2023 recruiting class.
What this offer tells me is that ....
a. Steve Sarkisian believes more attrition is on the way.
b. The coaches feel like they need another DT in the 2023 recruiting class.
Is this offer a risk? Of course. I can assure you that unranked defensive tackles from Mississippi don't hit at super high rates.
Yet, is it a big risk if they bring him in? Not at all.
With the way the Portal works these days, if Texas signs the kid and he doesn't pan out, he'll be off the scholarship board in 12-24 months. That's just the name of the game these days. The bottom portion of the roster is going to constantly turn over in 1-2 years these days, instead of 3-4 years.
Therefore, if Bo Davis wants a lottery ticket in the 2023 class, go ahead and gamble if there aren't any better options. It's a low-risk move from my perspective.
No. 6 - In case you were wondering...
Here's an updated look at the current scholarship board:
No. 7 - Comparing the Texas Junior Day with the A&M Junior Day ...
Here's a look at the super blue chip list that A&M had on campus:
The Aggies were also scheduled to host super blue chip linebacker Payton Pierce on Sunday, following his visit to Texas on Saturday.
Other than Zina Umeozulu and 2025 superstar Davon Mitchell, I'm not sure there was anyone else on hand from the in-state ranks that the Longhorns would lose five minutes worth of sleep over. Texas destroyed A&M in terms of ...
a. In-state super blue chips on hand
b. Out-of-state super blue chips on hand
c. Volume of 2025 super blue chips on hand
It might not matter at all when the dust settles, but if you're a Texas fan looking for a reason to feel really good about the weekend, be happy that you had more than a single in-state super blue chip from both the 2024 and 2025 classes on hand at a really important on-campus event.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell/Buy) I think it's going to be really hard to nab an edge player for two reasons: a) There needs to be someone in there that is an obvious upgrade to some like Ovie Oghoufo, who was a replacement level player in 2022. Should that player exist, you would have to convince that player to pick Texas over teams that have been significantly more successful in recent years. Of course, NIL could potentially make the Longhorns a factor when they otherwise might not have been.
As for the Sooners, I think they are destined to be Tennessee in the SEC. They are going to feel like Nebraska in 2034 when they haven't come close to winning the conference once.
(Buy) He made that clear last year and nothing about taking only three players in the Portal this year suggests anything has changed.
(Sell) Xavier Worthy is going to go for 1,000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns in 2023 if he stays healthy. He's going to be in his contract year, while seeing fewer double teams and likely better quarterback play. His life got better this weekend with the addition of Mitchell.
(Buy) I'm more bullish on this year's team than I have been for most of these Texas teams of the last decade. It all comes down to Quinn, but I don't know who I'd take over Texas at this point.
(Buy) I think we need to define success before we answer this question. Is he going to be Drew Brees and become a two-time Heisman finalist? No. Will he likely become a first-team All-Big 10 player? No. Could he emerge as one of the top 4-5 quarterbacks in the Big 10? Yes. Only one player in the Big 10 had a 156+ efficiency rating and only five were better than 150.1. That level of play would likely get him a chance in the NFL.
(Sell) I couldn't root for the Eagles if they played an all-star team of Aggies/Sooners.
(Sell) Great question. I feel pretty strongly Texas desired two in the Portal as recently as a couple of weeks ago, so it's possible that need could be addressed in May if the right player enters the Portal.
(Buy) Yeah, it's kind of as simple as that.
(Sell) I'd still take Georgia with a gun to my head, but I know there are members of the coaching staff that are very, very optimistic about Texas' chances with the nation's top tight end. His recruitment is kind of reminding me of Deandre Moore's in that the recruiting analysts out there might be the last to know about his final decision.
(Sell) I don't think any of that comes close to remotely happening.
(Buy) I'll go with the father and grandfather in year one and the entire family in year two.
(Buy) Uh ... duh.
(Sell) There was no social media in 1999 when Simms arrived outside of a bootleg Internet market back then. Hell, Orangebloods didn't even exist in 1999 and was barely a thing when he was a starter in 2001-02.
(Sell) I think we need to define what it means to be given a fair chance. Quinn Ewers is the returning starter and will take the majority of the snaps in the spring. That truth alone makes getting a "fair" chance a bit hard. Yet, as long as Ewers leaves the door open, he'll have a fair chance. The most important thing he needs to do is worry about getting his own level of play to a point where if Ewers struggles, he's the obvious guy that starts getting reps with the ones.
(Buy) I'm starting to get that vibe.
(Buy) You're going to get me in trouble, but if it were me, I'd take a few more Portal guys and a few less high school kids. When the dust settled in 2022, the team needed a few more older, plus-contributors and a just a tad fewer high school projects, whose best value might be in the scholarship spot they might open up in a year or two.
(Buy) To some degree, yes.
(Buy) Yes, all of that.
(Sell) Personally, I'd like to see what it looks like when Sarkisian is calling plays with an offense that has the kind of personnel he desires and it hasn't happened yet. I'm not ready to give up on that.
No. 9 - Scattershooting on anything and everything ...
... ICYMI - Gary Patterson was helping out on Saturday at the Texas Junior Day
... Longhorns left in the NFL playoffs: Joseph Ossai (Cincinnati), Charles Omenihu (San Francisco) and Hassan Ridgeway (San Francisco)
... Marcus Carr is the guy in 2022 that we thought he was going to be in 2021. Even more than the scoring he provides this team is the efficiency he's playing with. So far this season, he has 331 points on 247 shots. A year ago, he scored 386 points on 325 shots ... meaning he averages 1.34 points per shot this season vs. 1.19 points per shot last year. It might not seem like much, but it has turned him into a 45.7/40.5/81.2 triple slash player at guard, which is borderline elite, while last season's 39.4/33.8/76.9 looks like chump change by comparison.
... If you're going to lose a mid-week game to a damn good team, you have to win on the road during the weekend when you're playing one of the worst teams in your league. Mission accomplished. You don't want to go 1-1 each week, but the Longhorns handled their business in Morgantown, which was sorely needed as Texas continues through the bloodbath that is the Big 12 each week.
... Games in the Big 12 to watch this week: Kansas at Baylor, Kansas State at Iowa State.
... Get ready to talk about Rick Barnes a lot this upcoming week.
... Damn, TCU put them paws on Kansas in Lawrence this weekend in winning by 23. Wow.
... Is Kansas State going to pull off the rare football/basketball conference title double? My naked eyes tell me the Wildcats might be the best in the Big 12 with more than half of the conference season to go.
... The Texas women's basketball team went into Waco on Sunday and beat the Bears by 13, winning its 10th game in 11 tries. Yet, it lost Rori Harmon to injury with 3:35 left. Fingers crossed.
... I'm pretty sure fire is coming out of her feet.
... The Cowboys went about as far as they could. The 49ers won fair and square on Sunday night with Brock Purdy outplaying Dak Prescott. This is who we are. Divisional Round fodder for better teams. If we're being honest, the season came to an end when Tony Pollard went off the field with a high ankle sprain. Even if they had won this game, there was no beating Philly next week without him. The 49ers were just a little bit better. It is what it is. I'm expecting an Eagles/Bengals Super Bowl.
... The Bengals looked like the best football team in the world on Sunday. Damn, that was some kind of performance. I have a feeling the Bengals are going to beat the brakes off of the Chiefs next week with a very limited Patrick Mahomes guiding the Chiefs.
... Joe Burrow might be the best player in football today. It's either him or Mahomes, right?
... That was quite the gutsy game by Mahomes. If he can win a Super Bowl this year, that performance vs. Jacksonville will be remembered like Emmitt Smith powering through an injured shoulder against the Giants in 1993. He continues to play for an all-time legacy. I just don't think it's going to hapen.
... Travis Kelce caught 14 freaking passes on Saturday. Considering he's already fourth in NFL history in receiving yards by a tight end (10,344) in almost 100 fewer games than the three that are ahead of him, it's probably safe to start talking about him as a Canton guy.
... I still don't know that Trevor Lawrence is ever going to be an elite of the elite type of quarterback. He's more Justin Herbert than he is Josh Allen or Joe Burrow.
... My goodness, the Eagles brutalized the Giants. Running for 268 yards, while having your quarterback play mistake-free football in the passing game on offense is one thing. Doing it while you turn the other team's quarterback into a JAG and limit the team's star running back to 61 yards is another. Damnit, how did this team get so good, so fast?
... Do we really need this?
... Arsenal and Manchester United looked like the varsity while Liverpool/Chelsea looked like the JV this weekend. It was quite humbling.
... Arsenal remind of Liverpool's 2017-18 team, when all of the young components all hit their high stride at the exact same time. The thing about the Gunners you couldn't anticipate is that all of the talent on the team would elevate at the same time. It's just so rare for it to go down that way in any team sport, but it's happening. That being said, I have a feeling Man City is going to be a pain in the ass before this season is over.
... Don't look now, but the Sixers are playing pretty great basketball after an awful start.
... This was low-key a highlight of the year from a comedy standpoint. I want more of this, not less.
No. 10 - The List: Top 10 All-Time wide receivers from the state of Texas ...
After doing the running backs list last week, simply curiosity made me wonder what the wide receivers list might look, primarily because it's not quite as easy to roll off the players at the wide receiver position quite like you can with the running backs.
Maybe the wide receiver position will eventually get there in time, but you're not going to find half the list below with NFL MVPs on the resume, although there a number of few Hall of Famers.
Let's get to it.
Received strong consideration: Keenan McCardell, Ray Renfro, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Crabtree, Danny Amendola, Roy Williams, Josh Gordon, Jaylan Waddle and Garrett Wilson.
10. Michael Crabtree (Dallas Carter)
A two-time Biletnikoff winner at Texas Tech, Crabtree never quite hit the heights as a pro that he did in college, although he was a very good pro player who caught 637 career passes for 7,499 yards and 54 touchdowns. Crabtree finished his college career as the holder of eight different NCAA records. His best season as a pro came in 2012 when he caught 85 passes for 1,105 yards and 9 touchdowns. Crabtree caught 5 passes for 109 yards and touchdown in a Super Bowl XLVII loss to the Ravens.
9. Donald Driver (Houston Milby)
A five-time Pro Bowl player with the Packers during the 2000s, Driver finished his NFL career with 743 receptions for 10,137 yards and 61 touchdowns.
8. Dez Bryant (Lufkin)
A first-team All-Pro player in 2014 and a three-time Pro Bowl player during his career with the Cowboys, Bryant was a supernova during a four-year window from 2013-2016, but his level of play fell off considerably because of injuries in the years that followed. At his peak, Bryant was probably as good as anyone on the list.
7. John Jefferson (Dallas Roosevelt)
A three-time All-Pro with the Chargers during the early Dan Fouts years, Jefferson twice led the NFL in receiving touchdowns, while also leading the NFL in receiving yards in 1980. Jefferson's career was never quite the same after he forced a trade out of San Diego and landed on a Green Bay Packers squad that kept him from hitting the kind of heights he hit with the Chargers.
6. Cliff Branch (Houston Worthing)
One of the greatest Raiders that ever lived, Branch was a three-time All-Pro from 1974-1976 and won three Super Bowl rings during his 15-year career. Branch finished his career with 501 receptions for 8,685 yards and 67 touchdowns. Was enshrined into the NFL Hall of Fame by the seniors committee in 2022.
5. Mike Evans (Galveston Ball)
Of all the current active players competing for a spot on this list, the former Aggie is the most likely to end up in Canton one day, as he holds the NFL record for most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career with nine. Has caught 673 passes for 10,425 yards and 81 touchdowns in his career, while earning All-Pro recognition in 2016.
4. Don Maynard (Colorado City)
A two-time All-Pro in the AFL and a two-time All-Pro in the NFL, Maynard is one of the all-time players for the NY Jets after catching 633 passes for 11,834 yards and 88 touchdowns during his career. Part of the Super Bowl III championship team with the Jets, Maynard finished his career as pro football's all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards.
3. Charley Taylor (Grand Prairie Dalworth)
A six-time All-Pro selection from 1967-1974, Taylor caught 649 passes for 9,110 yards and 79 touchdowns, while also adding 1,488 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground as part of a career that ended with him being enshrined in Canton. A member of the 1960s All-Decade Team.
2. Tim Brown (Woodrow Wilson)
The former Heisman Trophy winner is the most prolific receiver that the state has ever produced, as Brown caught 1,094 career passes for 14,934 yards and 100 touchdowns during his NFL Career. Brown was a two-time All-Pro and was named to nine Pro Bowls, while also earning recognition to the NFL's 1990's All-Decade Team. Brown is the only wide receiver from the last three decades from the state of Texas to earn enshrinement into the NFL Hall of Fame.
1. Raymond Berry (Paris)
The former SMU star was one of the truly great receivers in the pre-modern era of the sport. A 6-time All-Pro selection , Berry caught 631 career passes for 9,275 yards and 68 touchdowns, while earning a spot on the NFL's 75th and 100th anniversary teams. Berry officially entered the NFL Hall of Fame 50 years ago this year.
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