After 12 regular-season games of watching Tom Herman's Texas program in action, I think we've been handed a large enough of a sample-size to draw some basic first impressions and mine aren't much different than the ones I had following Charlie Strong's first season in Austin.
Yes, the team played hard. Yes, there were unfortunate circumstances all over the place. Yes, you can knock yourself out cold playing the "what-if" game if that will help you sleep at night.
Yet, if we're keeping the conversation real, I can't say there was a single moment this year when I thought to myself, "I'm watching a special, elite-level coach and it's only a matter of time."
It never happened. Now, I had that thought about Herman's defensive coordinator, but the program isn't built around an assistant coach that might have a shelf-life of another year on his coaching lease in Austin. I'm talking about the head guy, the one who matters the most.
His baby is the offense and if the offense was actually a baby, millions of Texas fans would've called CPS to report him in the last four months.
For the last few months, this comment he made less than two weeks before facing an Oklahoma head coach that finds a way to manage calling plays still stands out.
"I think the biggest thing is that as a head coach, one, you've got to manage the game. That's why -- I mean I envy those guys that are head coaches and call plays. I don't know how they do it. They've got a different skill set than me, maybe."
Wrong answer, Tom. You were hired because Texas thought YOUR skill set was the best available.
In that same press conference, Herman said this about sophomore wide receiver Collin Johnson, who was less than two weeks removed from a seven-catch, 191-yard performance at USC.
"One of my projects this week is to say let's figure out how to get him the football, because he's got a unique skill set," Herman claimed.
Let's take a look at Johnson's totals from the moment Herman made that comment:
vs. KSU - 7-92-0
vs. Oklahoma - 2-26-0
vs. Oklahoma State 3-24-0
at Baylor - 6-36-0
at TCU - 3-49-1
vs. Kansas 6-63-0
at West Virginia 2-12-0
vs. Texas Tech - 4-30-0
Well, the week that Herman made the comment witnessed an immediate uptick in Johnson's production from the Iowa State game, but the reality is that he regressed on almost a weekly basis, which I would be quick to pin on wide receivers coach Drew Mehringer, except it was Herman who claimed that he was making Johnson his special project. Was he only a personal project for a week?
Too many questions exist at every single level on that side of the ball to remotely suggest that his job performance this season was adequate and coming off a 6-6 season, which included zero wins over teams that move the meter in this state. The byproduct of that is that he'll begin next season on a seat that might not be hot, but I'll be damned if it's not at least a little warm.
It's on Herman moving forward to fix the things that went wrong. If that means changing his coordinator, so be it. If that means taking over play-calling, so be it. If that means, changing his entire staff ... altogether now ... so be it.
The first season is a mulligan, just like it was for Charlie.
They don't give back-to-back mulligans at places like Texas, which means that if I don't think to myself, "I'm watching a special, elite-level coach and it's only a matter of time" in 2018, Herman will be on more than a warm seat in 2019.
Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives.
No. 2 – In case you're wondering ...
I reached out to a high-level athletics official on Sunday in an effort to get the temperature of the room at Belmont.
Per this source, who I trust quite a bit, most of the really important heavy-hitters are more disappointed than pissed and there's a view that this team could have just as easily been 10-2 than 6-6.
The same source also said that there is no pressure from the outside to force Tim Beck as offensive coordinator. If a change is made, it will be Herman's decision. Period.
Don't killer the messenger, but the sense of urgency being felt on Orangebloods doesn't exist everywhere.
No. 3 – The elephant in the room ...
The Texas quarterback situation isn't much clearer than it was 12 months ago.
Oh, it looked like it might have been clear at various points this season, primarily when freshman Sam Ehlinger put up back-to-back performances against Kansas State and Oklahoma that appeared to settle the entire conversation.
Yet, that was before his concussion. And less than outstanding performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Most important, it was before "The Throw" against Texas Tech, which played a huge role in the end of the game disaster against the Red Raiders.
The view from the couch after 12 games is that the Longhorns finished yet another season without the quarterback riddle completely being solved, which is a borderline disaster right up there with the way the game ended on Friday night.
Getting this thing solved in a way that allows the Longhorns to move into 2018 headed towards upper-echelon play at the position was the single-most important thing that needed to happen this season and it didn't get done.
Hell, I think Ehlinger is likely the guy, but I don't know what that means. Like Shane Buechele in 2016, Ehlinger should have taken a redshirt this season, but the flat out desperation of the program's needs at the position has left us trying to evaluate a player who shouldn't be in the evaluation stage.
I said the same thing about Buechele after the 2016 season and leading all the way up to the start of the 2017 season, and I was called a hater for it.
The truth is that the Longhorns have been serving up young quarterbacks on a BBQ platter for years because the program has had no choice but to rush into a shotgun quarterback wedding. It's essentially happened with every quarterback the school has recruited for nearly a decade.
Nine months from now, when everyone starts getting carried away with their pre-season predictions, just remember this about the quarterbacks.
We can think whatever we want, but we don't know about the most important position on the field.
It's the problem that just won't go away.
No. 4 – Third and two ...
Of all the things that happened against Tech on Friday, this is the thing that won't go away 48 hours later.
WTF?
While I completely understand not believing in the Texas ground game, the dynamics of the situation were this:
a. You're two yards away from securing a victory.
b. Running the ball would have insured that Tech would have needed to call its final timeout immediately afterwards, regardless of the result.
c. If you don't get the first down, the option to use your best player (Michael Dickson) in an effort to pin the Red Raiders 90 yards away from pay-dirt with no timeouts absolutely existed.
The only thing that couldn't happen was a turnover or an incomplete pass.
So, what did Texas do?
Herman and Co. called a play that was intellectually insulting to anyone with an eye on game management. It felt like the kind of decision that Charlie Strong would make.
No. 5 - One super positive thing ...
I have never seen a better college punter than Michael Dickson. Ever.
He's basically the Vince Young of punting.
If I had a Heisman Trophy vote, I might give it to him.
No. 6 – One really good positive thing ...
Look, Malik Jefferson is a goner. Don't even use any hope you might have on the subject material.
The good news is that Gary Johnson has a chance to emerge as a monster in 2018 under Todd Orlando. In fact, I'd contend that over the last few weeks, Johnson has performed at just as high of a level as Jefferson, who just finished the best season by a linebacker in a Texas uniform since 2004.
It took a while to get Johnson on the field, but his speed and raw athleticism creates the possibility of game-changing plays. In fact, Johnson's speed is such that he can take awful angles to the football that would derail lesser talents and still make the play.
No. 7 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: The Tech loss blame .... more on the coaches or players?
(Buy) The buck stops with the men being paid collectively in the eight-million dollar range, right? It's not as if the players didn't play hard, as much as they didn't play well. It's not a 50-50 affair from my perspective.
BUY or SELL: Herman will burn it down before he fires his buddy Beck?
(Buy) I think Herman would view firing his offensive coordinator as burning it all down. Herman has given every indication that he believes injuries and a lack of good players is at the root of what happened this season, more than anything else. From his perspective, Beck has been hindered by things outside of his control, which makes evaluating his performance next to impossible. On top of that, Herman believes this team needs continuity like it needs air to breathe.
BUY or SELL: We lose 10 players (not counting Srs) off this year's roster to transfers, early NFL?
(Buy) Texas has averaged double-digits for the last 10 years and I don't think that number declines in the next attrition cycle. I'd take the over if you set it at 11.5.
BUY or SELL: Texas Football fans have no reason to be genuinely optimistic that 2018 will be any different than 2017.
(Sell) I think the glass is still half-full ... barely. I think it really comes down to your opinion of Tom Herman and whether he's capable of doing the job well or not.
BUY or SELL: This will be the worst off-season in OB history?
(Sell) The 2004 off-season stands above all others. As an example, I went to a speaking engagement in Nashville that year about two months before the season started and an older Longhorn walked up to me and asked, "Is Greg Davis going to be the offensive coordinator this year?” When I told him that he would be the offensive coordinator, the older fan walked out, but not before saying in front of everyone, "Well, nothing else f****** matters." Also, I was in the parent's section for the 2003 Holiday Bowl and you would have thought a full-on mutiny was about to take place.
BUY or SELL: You can’t name three worse play calls in all the history of college football than 3rd and 2 against Tech?
(Sell) Kicking to Leeland McElroy in 1994. Calling for a Simms pass over the middle in the 2001 Big 12 Championship game with a 7-0 lead one play after Cedric Benson had rushed for 24 yards. Or either of the passes over the middle that were called/intercepted thereafter. And the decision-making in the final seconds of the 2009 Big 12 Championship game.
BUY or SELL: Herman needs to take ownership of the team after grossly mismanaging the game and then saying “they are kids” shows lack of insight?
(Buy) The buck stops with him. Mack would have owned it all.
BUY or SELL: Young quarterbacks throw interceptions, fumble, or fail to execute at times. It comes with the territory. But Sam Ehlinger does all of the above plus making really stupid decisions at times that cost teams ball games and deservedly raise questions about his football IQ?
(Buy) Those are questions that he has to answer, just as Colt McCoy had to following a 22-turnover season in 2007. The answers aren't always the same, but the question exists for lots of young quarterbacks.
BUY or SELL: This season is a better season than the last 3.
(Buy) Barely, but, yes.
No. 8 – If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Oklahoma
2. Clemson
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Ohio State
8. TCU
9. Miami
10. USC
No. 9 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
* Ok, there's good news and bad news with the Texas men's basketball team. Yes, the weekend featured a couple of gut-wrenching overtime losses to Duke and Gonzaga. No doubt. It sucked. On the other hand, Texas showed a lot of moxie in going toe-to-toe with a couple of the best teams in the country. It should have beaten Duke and it nearly beat Gonzaga on a day when it probably had no business doing so. Considering that it's still November, there's a lot to build on. There's no reason this team can't be playing on weekend number two in the NCAA Tournament.
* Texas will win as many games as its shooting will allow it to. It's pretty much the story of every team in the country.
* The Texas women are the No. 2-ranked team in the nation and they still have to be viewed as an underdog until the team can prove that they are ready to slay that dragon.
* The Texas volleyball team gets its playoff run started on Friday. The Longhorns just put the finishing touches on a perfect Big 12 season and have only two losses all season.
* *ducks* Considering the state of the volleyball and basketball teams, does Chris Plonsky deserve some credit?
* Say whatever you want, but if A&M hires Jimbo Fisher away from Florida State with a contract worth more than $35 million, it'll be exactly the kind of hire I've suggested the Longhorns make in each of its last two openings. Fisher is an absolute guarantee on the box.
* Let's check in with our friends in Knoxville tonight...
* Gary Patterson's win over Baylor gave him his 11th 10-win season with the Horned Frogs. That's really, really good. We're talking about one of the all-time greats that has ever coached at the college level in this state. Outside of Darrell Royal and Mack Brown, I'm not sure who you would rank over him.
* South Florida plays just like you would expect a Charlie Strong-led team to play.
* I didn't think Auburn was capable of smashing Alabama. Man, I was w-r-o-n-g.
* Maryland, which had quarterback injury issues all season, ended up being a 4-8 football team.
* Phil Dawson belongs in the Smithsonian
* New England is going to win the Super Bowl. Sorry, Eagles fans.
* I did not think Jared Goff would be this good, this soon.
* I know Chelsea fans are probably expecting me to take a shot following a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, but it was probably a fair result in a game that featured class all over the pitch.
* Man United was gifted three points this weekend. EPL officiating is on par with Big 12 officiating.
No. 10 – And Finally…
I'm not bragging, but I'm kind of bragging. #AISDHolla
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