"You need to be good with the press. You have to be able to recruit. You gotta understand what a big-time college program is about. You're going to be under a lot of scrutiny. You gotta win. You gotta win big. You have to graduate your student-athletes. They have to take real classes. You have to mentor them. You have to recruit the right kind of folks."
Steve Patterson on the Texas football head coaching position in December of 2013
Twenty-one months into the Charlie Strong Era in Austin, an incredibly tricky task in turning around the Texas football program might be turning into an impossibly tricky task.
Everyone knew upon Strong’s arrival that the challenge in front of him was pretty monumental when you consider the dynamics of what he was walking into. In addition to receiving a watered down roster full of entitlement and lacking in leadership, the school’s brand was at a low point among recruits and high schools around the state not known since the 1980s, while three of the primary competitors in the state of Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU) are soaring with increased competition.
Hell, I’m not even going to get into the quarterback and offensive line disasters he inherited, the fact that Mack Brown used up almost every official visit for every committed player in the 2014 recruiting class or the reality that he started behind his primary competition for almost every single elite prospect in the 2015 class. There’s just not enough time to rehash all of the hurdles Strong had to clear coming into this challenge.
The job is the job and whatever the score was in January of 2014 no longer matters. What matters is what is happening now, which means the days of bringing up Mack Brown’s sins as the head football coach in the last half-decade on the job are over.
All that matters is what Strong has done in his first 21 months, what he’s doing in the here and now, and what is possible in the immediate future.
With that in mind, in the aftermath of one of the worst beatings that any team wearing burnt orange has ever taken, I’m not sure what Strong’s next play is or what possibilities even exist, both in the short-term on the field in 2015 or in the long-term with all of the components of the job.
One of the critical truths about the program coming into this season was the reality that the Texas program has survived on momentum fumes during the first 21 months on the job and it was vital that the Longhorns create some momentum with their play on the field during the 2015 season. With recruiting in a stagnant state as elite recruits continue to wait for Strong to prove to them that things are on the uptick, the only way the Longhorns could create the kind of jolt needed to surge forward was with their play on the field.
That the opposite has occurred this season means that Strong and Co. will have to turn this thing
around without the things on paper that critically sharp minds would agree need to be in place, while doing so in an atmosphere that suddenly has the national media asking questions about his job security, Texas players retweeting messages of a possible transfer to Texas A&M in the locker room of 37-0 games and random potshots from the Texas Rangers Twitter account.
If the job was tricky 21 months ago, what in the world is it now?
Most concerning is that this is a program that needs two more top 10-level classes just like the one that was miraculously signed by Strong in 2015 before it has enough talent and depth that might allow it a quick rise. Yes, there are few better in college football at turning water into wine like Strong, turning those three-star prospects into NFL players takes time, something it can be argued is not on Strong’s side. When you look at the likes of Malik Jefferson, Holton Hill, Connor Williams and John Burt, you’re talking exclusively about elite-level national prospects. Those lower-tier recruits from the three-star range often take two or three years to properly develop, which means if they sign in 2016, it might be 2018 or 2019 before they are ready to be serious high-level contributors.
On top of the program’s recruiting needs, there are still major questions about all three phases on the field and potential staff decisions following the season that will almost certainly have to be made.
Honestly, it’s as if Strong is trying to solve a Rubik's Cube without all of the stickers in place to do so. If you need a metaphor that isn’t 30 years old, it’s like he’s trying to win at Madden with a controller that has a bunch of buttons that don’t work.
I’m not saying it can’t be done because there’s no question in my mind that Strong is an elite evaluator and developer of talent, I just can’t quite see the plan that gets him there outside of an abundance of patience from the school that would allow him to go into 2018 and 2019, which would give him the time needed to develop two or three recruiting classes that might mostly feature mid-tier level prospects.
Yet, can Strong reasonably ask for patience when the product on the field continues to create wincing reactions on a weekly basis?
Call it tricky, delicate, complex, complicated or dicey at best and unfeasible, impractical, impracticable, nonviable and unworkable at worst.
No.2 - The guessing game …
Below is a list of quotes and a list of games associated with the remarks. See if you can match them up without cheating with the following games:
2014 BYU, 2014 UCLA, 2014 Baylor, 2014 Kansas State, 2014 TCU, 2014 Arkansas,
2015 Notre Dame and 2015 TCU
(Answers can be found in section 10 of this column)
a. "I think it could be fixed. I don't know if we say it's a big mess. We drive the ball. We have those opportunities and then there's a breakdown somewhere. The thing with this, with us offensively, we have to win on first down. We can't get into third-and-long because second-and-5, you can manage that. Second-and-6, you can manage it, but when it gets to third-and-long, that's where it hurts us because now we have got to protect the quarterback. Then you look at your quarterback position, and he's got to make the right throws."
b. “We have to get better. We know this. We have to do a better job of coaching and with our players, we've just got to play better. It's all about managing the game. It's all about you are looking at yourself and making sure do we have this team ready to go. And just making sure that when you do go out to recruit that guys understand that what is expected of this program, the expectations here, the standards here, the pride, tradition, it's all a part of it.
c. "Just the whole demeanor. Just how they took the field. Just how they carried themselves. If you've been around long enough, you know. I knew that. I told them that before we ever went out. I said we're not ready to play. When you're not ready to play, this is a good football team, and we're probably going to go out here and get embarrassed."
d. “It’s all about pride. You have to have pride in yourself. It’s a very competitive sport. This is a game of life, but you've got to know when things aren’t going right that someone has to step up. That’s what we’re not getting right now. When you don’t have that key … that’s what we’re missing. We’re missing that key guy, somebody that can take the team and take the team over. We don’t have that key guy. We've got to find that guy. If not, we have to continue to develop them.”
e. "We've just got to keep chopping that wood, huh? The thing is, you look at it. We can improve. We've just got to get better on defense. We've just got to stop the run and not giving up the big plays. Run the ball and win more on the downs. You don't ever want to get behind the chains, and we got behind some tonight.”
f. "I don't know if we took a step back. We didn't make the plays we should have made."
g. “It comes down to it that you have to have playmakers. You have to have guys up front. When you look at a football team, it starts with the offensive line and the defensive line. If you can't move people on the offensive line, if you can't create seams in the defense and allow the running backs to go run the ball, and then you protect the quarterback when we go drop back to throw, you're going to have issues, and that's what we had.”
h. “Well, just our whole team, not only on offense. We all have to make sure, the coaching staff,
that we are on the same page, and we start doing things the right way with technique and fundamentals and we just don’t get embarrassed.”
No. 3 – NCAA Team Stats Through Five Games …
(Note: Difference from last week to this week in parenthesis)
Offensive Stats
Total offense: 111 (+1)
Rushing offense: 67 (+8)
Passing offense: 106 (same)
Team Passing Efficiency: 87 (-9)
3rd Down Conversions: 118 (+1)
Red-zone offense: 29 (-28)
Turnovers: 24 (+6)
Defensive Stats
Total defense: 119 (-5)
Rushing defense: 108 (-4)
Passing defense: 118 (-12)
Team Passing Efficiency: 121 (-7)
3rd Down Conversions: 122 (+3)
Red-zone defense: 115 (-8)
Team sacks: 101 (-26)
Turnovers: 24 (-17)
Defensive touchdowns: 1 (same)
Special Teams
Kickoff returns: 99 (-10)
Kickoff return D: 117 (+2
Net punting: 45 (-11)
Punt returns: 9 (+1)
Punt return D: 9 (+2)
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns …
… Perhaps there’s little the Longhorns could have done on offense that would have allowed them to compete with TCU over the course of four quarters, especially when you consider the team's offensive line situation and the fear it has over its starting quarterback in the passing game, but I hated the offensive game-plan on Saturday. It appears the coaches thought it would
be able to run the ball right at TCU because of perceived size issues within the TCU linebacker unit, while working the short outside areas in the passing game. Basically, that is what’s called nickel and diming the defense to death and in order to pull off that kind of game-plan, it requires mistake-free football, the kind that this offense is incapable of.
Against one of the NCAA’s best offenses, it’s just not a plan that would allow the Longhorns a chance to really compete for four quarters.
Point blank … the offense is playing within a box that is mostly relegated to five yards off the line of scrimmage at most and it’s allowing the defense to load up numbers in the box without much fear of the what might happen behind it. One way or another the coaches have to find a way to push the ball down the field into the intermediate and deep spaces on the field or this offense is going to have zero chance succeeding at a basic level, let alone perform at a level that allows it to compete with the Big 12’s best.
You’ve got to let it all hang out against a team like TCU and the idea that they could go to Fort Worth with such a conservative game-plan and hang around is reason for me for pause.
… The ironic part about the notable Michael Dickson shanks from the last two weeks is that it overshadows the fact that the punting game is one of the best things the team has going for it through five games, at least in terms of national rankings.
… The scariest thought about the current Texas statistical national rankings? The Longhorns are 1-4, despite ranking No. 1 in defensive touchdowns, No. 24 in lost turnovers and No. 29 in red zone offense? What happens if those numbers regress, as the red zone offense did this weekend, without across the room improvement everywhere else?
… If the coaches start Johnathan Gray this weekend against Oklahoma and then replace him down the road with D’Onte Foreman, despite all of the evidence that suggests the move needs to be made now, it’ll remind me of some of those post-OU personnel changes that Mack Brown used to be infamous for. If the back-up is averaging a full yard per carry more than the starter five games into the season and the overall number of touches are reasonable the same, you’re starting the wrong back and giving too many carries to the starter. That truth is even truer when the starter is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That number might get Jerome Bettis into the Hall of Fame, but 99 times out of 100, it represents subpar play.
… Lorenzo Joe has to play more this week, right? I mean … he didn’t drop that ball from Swoopes for the touchdown in the fourth quarter, which represents pretty massive improvement from the position in the first three quarters.
… Would you be shocked if I told you that Jerrod Heard is averaging only 0.2 yards per rush more than Tyrone Swoopes? Borderline shocked, at least?
… Texas passing game this season: 50.5-percent completions, three touchdowns, two interceptions and 120.3 total quarterback efficiency.
Opponents passing game: 66.9-percent completions, 16 touchdowns, five interceptions and 164.2 total quarterback efficiency.
… Daje Johnson is on pace to lead the Texas passing game with a projected 33.6 receptions over 12 games, which would represent the fewest passes caught by the leading receiver of the team since 1997 when Kwame Cavil lead the team with 23.
… Malik Jefferson is a whale of a young linebacker, but everyone should save the Derrick Johnson comparisons because he’s just not making the impact plays that Johnson produced in a back-up role in 2001. Johnson recorded 83 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in his freshman campaign, while Jefferson is on pace for 74.4 tackles, 8.4 tackles for loss and zero sacks.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
(As always these are real questions submitted by real Orangebloods subscribers.)
(BUY or SELL) Charlie is the head coach at UT in Fall of 2016?
(Buy) Until I hear otherwise and we see some movement on an athletic director hire, Strong is going to return for a third season. I’ve said it a million times, but the decision-makers believe there’s been too much unrest and upheaval in the last couple years and don't believe that change is the best move right now.
(BUY or SELL) Chad Morris would be doing a better job now at Texas than Charlie Strong has?
(Buy) Two thoughts. It’s kind of a loaded question because as it currently stands, I think you can make a case that it couldn’t get much worse. Second, at the very least you’d have to think Morris would have the offense in a much better state. Hell, the Mustangs scored 37 points two weeks ago against the same TCU defense that neutered the Longhorns.
(BUY or SELL) Kris Boyd's teammates forgive him for being a little turd on his cell phone at halftime in the locker room?
(Buy) The Tweet was far from outside the type of behavior that I think most that know Boyd would expect and it helps that he’s a good player with a lot of talent. Maturity is an issue for all 18-year-olds and it’s probably more so with Boyd than a lot of guys. His teammates probably won’t view this as the type of betrayal that the fans will.
(BUY or SELL) Charlie brings in the type of coaching talent next year to help this team?
(Sell) Strong isn’t an offensive coach and based on his previous hires on that side of the ball, it’s hard to call the situation anything better than 50-50.
(BUY or SELL) If the decision were being made today, the Texas decision makers would still hire Charlie Strong?
(Sell) If they knew then what they know now, I think the decision-makers would have to lean towards someone with more of a true offensive background, as well as someone who would represent more of a sure thing as a recruiter inside the state of Texas.
(BUY or SELL) OB staff has a love affair with Strong and is mad at Mack for not being nice to them?
(Sell) Our quest is to always tell you how it is without as much confirmation bias as possible. If you look at the way we covered Mack Brown, I think we were completely fair and deadly accurate with a number of things we reported. Meanwhile, I think we’ve been completely fair with Strong. For instance, what have you read in this column that suggests we’re in his hip pocket because we’re blinded by love?
(BUY or SELL) There are more fans at the 1997 UT/Kansas game than the 2015 UT/Kansas game?
(Sell) They’ll break the 68,000 barrier. Missing that mark would represent the lowest crowd number since stadium expansion by 20,000.
(BUY or SELL) A 3-parter: a) Texas wins four games this year. b) Charlie Strong is the Texas Head Coach on January 1, and if so, why? c) Tom Herman takes over as the next Head Coach, be it 2016 or 2017? If not, assuming Charlie is gone at least by the end of next season, who does?
(Sell) Kansas is a sure thing in my mind, while Kansas State and Iowa State are coin-flips, and Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Baylor should be games (at least at this point) where the team is a definite underdog. If Longhorns go 50-50 on the coin-flip games, it gets them to four, but the math suggests that doing so is a 25-percent proposition. Perhaps that’s what will be on the line when the team plays Tech on Thanksgiving.
b. (Buy) See above. The current vibe among decision-makers is that a move would represent desperation and panic.
c. (Sell) I said this in December of 2013 and I’ll repeat it every time anyone ever asks… this is not a learn on the job type of job. If you’re the richest program in the country and one of the
winningest in the history of the sport, you must find a sure thing. That means someone who has accomplished big things in the big ring, and not someone you’re guessing about. Herman is a total guess at this point with few head coaching skins on the wall.
(BUY or SELL) I joined OB a week before the 2010 season. I'm the problem and should drop my membership? Either that or the grass to turf at DKR.
(Sell) Blame the grass because you’re literally one of a couple of thousand that signed up that year.
(BUY or SELL) The O-line remains the worst unit and biggest problem on a very bad team across the board?
(Buy) I’m not sure it changes in 2016.
(BUY or SELL) Texas finishes in the top 25 in recruiting for 2016 come Feb?
(Buy) Man, it’s going to be close. It’s likely going to take about seven four-star prospects, 15 three-stars and a 3.3 average star ranking to get there. Texas currently has a 3.33 average ranking and I’m not sure it’s going to go up from here, although I do believe Texas will finish with 6-8 four-star prospects. Like I said, it’s going to be close.
(BUY or SELL) After OU we string together wins until Baylor?
(Sell) This is a team that ranks among the worst in the country in both offense and defense as it approaches the midway point of the season. Nothing about what this team is doing suggests that it’s headed for a “string” of wins.
No. 6 – Week 2 CFB Randomness ...
… If I had a vote that mattered …
1. Alabama
2. Utah
3. LSU
4. Texas A&M
5. Florida
6. Clemson
7. Baylor
8. Ohio State
9. Oklahoma
10. TCU
… I know people are going to think I’m crazy or trying to be controversial, but I think the Crimson Tide is the best team in the nation and I think eventually the rankings will reflect my thinking and/or Alabama wins the SEC and makes it into the four-team playoff with a single loss. What happened against Ole Miss was just one of those nights because if they play that team on a neutral field 10 times, I think Alabama wins at least seven times. In addition, Saturday’s win over Georgia was the single-most impressive and complete win/performance I’ve seen this season. Besides, what team should definitely be ranked ahead of the Tide? Don’t name a team that hasn’t played anyone. Bottom line: I think Alabama is the best team in the country, even if it has a loss.
… You simply cannot get into a track meet with Baylor. You will lose. You have to force turnovers, limit turnovers and score touchdowns. Or you will lose.
p.s. Art Briles still enabled a predator on his team at the expense of a female student-athlete and has yet to answer for or truly address the matter. Do not forget.
… Don’t look now, but Oklahoma is playing a damn good brand of football and seems to be getting better each week. Consider me impressed with it’s dismantling of West Virginia on Saturday. On a day when the Sooners probably played a B-level game on offense, OU still passed for more than 300 yards, while the defense finally produced game-changing plays (five created turnovers on Saturday) against the best offense it has faced all season. Nice job, Bob Stoops.
… Michigan State currently looks like all kinds of fool’s gold.
… The loss of Malik Zaire finally caught up with the Irish. I’m not so sure the Irish wouldn’t be my No. 1 or No. 2 if he doesn’t get hurt.
… Josh Rosen just isn’t ready for prime-time. Not yet, anyways.
… Leonard Fournette is doing everything he can to lock up the Heisman by mid-November. I’m not even sure if he has a true No. 2 chasing him at the moment.
… Hate on A&M all you want, but that team waxed an Arizona State team that just beat down UCLA, it beat Arkansas on a neutral field and it completely outclassed Mississippi State on Saturday night. That’s not a bad five-week resume. You can make the case it’s as good as anyone’s.
… As I said a week ago, the demise of David Shaw was greatly exaggerated …
No. 7 – I'm a pretty dispirited Cowboys fan tonight …
Two weeks ago, I theorized that the Cowboys needed to go 3-5 over the course of the next
eight games if it wanted to have a chance to make a run at the playoffs once Tony Romo and Dez Bryant returned.
Two weeks later, the Cowboys have dropped two straight games (despite leading in the second half of both games) and it's going to take .500 football over the course of the next six games to get to a 5-5 mark after 10 games.
Meanwhile, players continue to drop like flies within Daniel Larusso's reach and what remains is a poor man's version of an NFL team.
It doesn't seem very fair, but few things in the NFL are.
Someone give me a hug.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Scattershooting on the NFL weekend …
a. Does Bill O’Brien deserve at least a little heat for the decisions he’s made and the way his team has performed through four games? Just a little? I ask because any time you get worked by 27 points in the NFL, some questions need to be asked.
b. Is Andy Dalton finally reaching a new level of play or is he going to pull the rug out from underneath Bengals fans in January, as always? It feels like I’m looking at a mirage, but damn, there’s no doubting the ginger is playing his rear end off.
c. Indianapolis is so lucky not to be 0-4 right now. Also, did Matt Hasselbeck just give the Colts their best quarterback performance through the first quarter of the season?
d. It’s always impossible to cheer for either team when Washington plays Philadelphia, but I will admit to smiling when the Eagles lost in the closing seconds. Bwahahahahahaha
e. My goodness, the Dolphins are a mess. There’s not really one part of that team to be excited about right now outside of Jarvis Landry and Brent Grimes’ wife.
f. I wish I had given more respect to Brandon Marshall when compiling my personal pre-season fantasy football rankings, but thank goodness I was all over Chris Ivory in three different drafts. Tell me the Jets aren’t 3-1.
g. Maybe we should put the anointing oil away as it relates to the Arizona Cardinals …
h. I will start Todd Gurley in fantasy football forever more.
i. Aaron Rodgers was mortal on Sunday and the Packers still won by two scores. That’s a good football team right there, folks.
j. Poor Cleveland …
… Scattershooting on UFC192...
a. The card as a whole was very disappointing, but the main event was a hell of a battle and I thought the judges got it right in giving Daniel Cormier a close decision (I had it 48-47 on my personal scorecard). He might not be Jon Jones, but if that’s the worst thing you can say about someone in the Octagon, that’s not too shabby.
b. The Ryan Bader/Rashad Evans fight was a flat out dud and I’d have a hard time giving Bader a title shot after that performance. Who in the hell wants to see that guy get a shot?
c. I’m guessing that Dana White remembers Johny Hendricks failing to meet weight and forcing a cancellation to the co-main event on the card for a very long time. Personally, I would be absolutely livid after hearing reports that he was 20 pounds away from the needed weight less than a week before the fight.
… Scattershooting on the end of the MLB regular season ...
a. It’s amazing to see a 162-game season come down to the final day for three teams in one
division. At the end of the day, attaboy, Texas. Attaboy, Houston.
b. The Rangers gave up a prospect haul to get Cole Hamels, but I’m guessing his performance on Sunday (a complete game to run his record to 7-1) really made it worth it, especially since he’s going to be with the team for the foreseeable future. You guys are going to love him in the postseason, trust me.
c. Astros vs. Yankees is going to be a hell of a lot of one-day, winner-take-all fun.
d. Max Scherzer is all kinds of awesome and that performance on Saturday night was the definition of an all-timer, as he struck out nine of his last 10 batters and set a record with strikeouts in a no-hitter with 17. How in the hell did Washington not make the playoffs with this dude and Bryce Harper playing for it?
e. With the first pick of the 2016 MLB Draft, the Philadelphia Phillies select… (help me here, McComas)
Is the answer a pitcher from Oklahoma?
… Scattershooting on week eight in the EPL.
a. Ding dong, the witch is dead. With the International break on the way, Liverpool sacked Brendan Rodgers and all signs seem to point to German Jurgen Klopp filling the void. From what I can see, that would be a pretty massive hire for the Reds. Thoughts, soccer heads?
b. Holy, Sergio Aguero! After a slow start to the season, his five goal onslaught against Newcastle was incredibly impressive.
c. If Alexis Sanchez was a character in an arcade game, he’d be Reggie Miller in the old NBA Jam after he’s hit three shots in a row.
d. Chelsea is four points away from the relegation range. That was fun to type.
e. Crystal. Freaking. Palace. Who knew?
No. 9 – Youtube Video of the Week ...
When I was a kid, this is the show in syndication that I used to rush home from grade school to watch.
I wonder what show my kids will want to watch when they are seven or right?
No.10 - And finally ...
The answers for section II.
a. Baylor 2014
b. TCU 2014
c. BYU 2014
d. TCU 2015
e. UCLA 2014
f. KSU 2014
g. Arkansas 2014
h. Notre Dame 2015
Steve Patterson on the Texas football head coaching position in December of 2013
Twenty-one months into the Charlie Strong Era in Austin, an incredibly tricky task in turning around the Texas football program might be turning into an impossibly tricky task.
Everyone knew upon Strong’s arrival that the challenge in front of him was pretty monumental when you consider the dynamics of what he was walking into. In addition to receiving a watered down roster full of entitlement and lacking in leadership, the school’s brand was at a low point among recruits and high schools around the state not known since the 1980s, while three of the primary competitors in the state of Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU) are soaring with increased competition.
Hell, I’m not even going to get into the quarterback and offensive line disasters he inherited, the fact that Mack Brown used up almost every official visit for every committed player in the 2014 recruiting class or the reality that he started behind his primary competition for almost every single elite prospect in the 2015 class. There’s just not enough time to rehash all of the hurdles Strong had to clear coming into this challenge.
The job is the job and whatever the score was in January of 2014 no longer matters. What matters is what is happening now, which means the days of bringing up Mack Brown’s sins as the head football coach in the last half-decade on the job are over.
All that matters is what Strong has done in his first 21 months, what he’s doing in the here and now, and what is possible in the immediate future.
With that in mind, in the aftermath of one of the worst beatings that any team wearing burnt orange has ever taken, I’m not sure what Strong’s next play is or what possibilities even exist, both in the short-term on the field in 2015 or in the long-term with all of the components of the job.
One of the critical truths about the program coming into this season was the reality that the Texas program has survived on momentum fumes during the first 21 months on the job and it was vital that the Longhorns create some momentum with their play on the field during the 2015 season. With recruiting in a stagnant state as elite recruits continue to wait for Strong to prove to them that things are on the uptick, the only way the Longhorns could create the kind of jolt needed to surge forward was with their play on the field.
That the opposite has occurred this season means that Strong and Co. will have to turn this thing
around without the things on paper that critically sharp minds would agree need to be in place, while doing so in an atmosphere that suddenly has the national media asking questions about his job security, Texas players retweeting messages of a possible transfer to Texas A&M in the locker room of 37-0 games and random potshots from the Texas Rangers Twitter account.
If the job was tricky 21 months ago, what in the world is it now?
Most concerning is that this is a program that needs two more top 10-level classes just like the one that was miraculously signed by Strong in 2015 before it has enough talent and depth that might allow it a quick rise. Yes, there are few better in college football at turning water into wine like Strong, turning those three-star prospects into NFL players takes time, something it can be argued is not on Strong’s side. When you look at the likes of Malik Jefferson, Holton Hill, Connor Williams and John Burt, you’re talking exclusively about elite-level national prospects. Those lower-tier recruits from the three-star range often take two or three years to properly develop, which means if they sign in 2016, it might be 2018 or 2019 before they are ready to be serious high-level contributors.
On top of the program’s recruiting needs, there are still major questions about all three phases on the field and potential staff decisions following the season that will almost certainly have to be made.
Honestly, it’s as if Strong is trying to solve a Rubik's Cube without all of the stickers in place to do so. If you need a metaphor that isn’t 30 years old, it’s like he’s trying to win at Madden with a controller that has a bunch of buttons that don’t work.
I’m not saying it can’t be done because there’s no question in my mind that Strong is an elite evaluator and developer of talent, I just can’t quite see the plan that gets him there outside of an abundance of patience from the school that would allow him to go into 2018 and 2019, which would give him the time needed to develop two or three recruiting classes that might mostly feature mid-tier level prospects.
Yet, can Strong reasonably ask for patience when the product on the field continues to create wincing reactions on a weekly basis?
Call it tricky, delicate, complex, complicated or dicey at best and unfeasible, impractical, impracticable, nonviable and unworkable at worst.
No.2 - The guessing game …
Below is a list of quotes and a list of games associated with the remarks. See if you can match them up without cheating with the following games:
2014 BYU, 2014 UCLA, 2014 Baylor, 2014 Kansas State, 2014 TCU, 2014 Arkansas,
2015 Notre Dame and 2015 TCU
(Answers can be found in section 10 of this column)
a. "I think it could be fixed. I don't know if we say it's a big mess. We drive the ball. We have those opportunities and then there's a breakdown somewhere. The thing with this, with us offensively, we have to win on first down. We can't get into third-and-long because second-and-5, you can manage that. Second-and-6, you can manage it, but when it gets to third-and-long, that's where it hurts us because now we have got to protect the quarterback. Then you look at your quarterback position, and he's got to make the right throws."
b. “We have to get better. We know this. We have to do a better job of coaching and with our players, we've just got to play better. It's all about managing the game. It's all about you are looking at yourself and making sure do we have this team ready to go. And just making sure that when you do go out to recruit that guys understand that what is expected of this program, the expectations here, the standards here, the pride, tradition, it's all a part of it.
c. "Just the whole demeanor. Just how they took the field. Just how they carried themselves. If you've been around long enough, you know. I knew that. I told them that before we ever went out. I said we're not ready to play. When you're not ready to play, this is a good football team, and we're probably going to go out here and get embarrassed."
d. “It’s all about pride. You have to have pride in yourself. It’s a very competitive sport. This is a game of life, but you've got to know when things aren’t going right that someone has to step up. That’s what we’re not getting right now. When you don’t have that key … that’s what we’re missing. We’re missing that key guy, somebody that can take the team and take the team over. We don’t have that key guy. We've got to find that guy. If not, we have to continue to develop them.”
e. "We've just got to keep chopping that wood, huh? The thing is, you look at it. We can improve. We've just got to get better on defense. We've just got to stop the run and not giving up the big plays. Run the ball and win more on the downs. You don't ever want to get behind the chains, and we got behind some tonight.”
f. "I don't know if we took a step back. We didn't make the plays we should have made."
g. “It comes down to it that you have to have playmakers. You have to have guys up front. When you look at a football team, it starts with the offensive line and the defensive line. If you can't move people on the offensive line, if you can't create seams in the defense and allow the running backs to go run the ball, and then you protect the quarterback when we go drop back to throw, you're going to have issues, and that's what we had.”
h. “Well, just our whole team, not only on offense. We all have to make sure, the coaching staff,
that we are on the same page, and we start doing things the right way with technique and fundamentals and we just don’t get embarrassed.”
No. 3 – NCAA Team Stats Through Five Games …
(Note: Difference from last week to this week in parenthesis)
Offensive Stats
Total offense: 111 (+1)
Rushing offense: 67 (+8)
Passing offense: 106 (same)
Team Passing Efficiency: 87 (-9)
3rd Down Conversions: 118 (+1)
Red-zone offense: 29 (-28)
Turnovers: 24 (+6)
Defensive Stats
Total defense: 119 (-5)
Rushing defense: 108 (-4)
Passing defense: 118 (-12)
Team Passing Efficiency: 121 (-7)
3rd Down Conversions: 122 (+3)
Red-zone defense: 115 (-8)
Team sacks: 101 (-26)
Turnovers: 24 (-17)
Defensive touchdowns: 1 (same)
Special Teams
Kickoff returns: 99 (-10)
Kickoff return D: 117 (+2
Net punting: 45 (-11)
Punt returns: 9 (+1)
Punt return D: 9 (+2)
No. 4 – Scattershooting on the Longhorns …
… Perhaps there’s little the Longhorns could have done on offense that would have allowed them to compete with TCU over the course of four quarters, especially when you consider the team's offensive line situation and the fear it has over its starting quarterback in the passing game, but I hated the offensive game-plan on Saturday. It appears the coaches thought it would
be able to run the ball right at TCU because of perceived size issues within the TCU linebacker unit, while working the short outside areas in the passing game. Basically, that is what’s called nickel and diming the defense to death and in order to pull off that kind of game-plan, it requires mistake-free football, the kind that this offense is incapable of.
Against one of the NCAA’s best offenses, it’s just not a plan that would allow the Longhorns a chance to really compete for four quarters.
Point blank … the offense is playing within a box that is mostly relegated to five yards off the line of scrimmage at most and it’s allowing the defense to load up numbers in the box without much fear of the what might happen behind it. One way or another the coaches have to find a way to push the ball down the field into the intermediate and deep spaces on the field or this offense is going to have zero chance succeeding at a basic level, let alone perform at a level that allows it to compete with the Big 12’s best.
You’ve got to let it all hang out against a team like TCU and the idea that they could go to Fort Worth with such a conservative game-plan and hang around is reason for me for pause.
… The ironic part about the notable Michael Dickson shanks from the last two weeks is that it overshadows the fact that the punting game is one of the best things the team has going for it through five games, at least in terms of national rankings.
… The scariest thought about the current Texas statistical national rankings? The Longhorns are 1-4, despite ranking No. 1 in defensive touchdowns, No. 24 in lost turnovers and No. 29 in red zone offense? What happens if those numbers regress, as the red zone offense did this weekend, without across the room improvement everywhere else?
… If the coaches start Johnathan Gray this weekend against Oklahoma and then replace him down the road with D’Onte Foreman, despite all of the evidence that suggests the move needs to be made now, it’ll remind me of some of those post-OU personnel changes that Mack Brown used to be infamous for. If the back-up is averaging a full yard per carry more than the starter five games into the season and the overall number of touches are reasonable the same, you’re starting the wrong back and giving too many carries to the starter. That truth is even truer when the starter is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That number might get Jerome Bettis into the Hall of Fame, but 99 times out of 100, it represents subpar play.
… Lorenzo Joe has to play more this week, right? I mean … he didn’t drop that ball from Swoopes for the touchdown in the fourth quarter, which represents pretty massive improvement from the position in the first three quarters.
… Would you be shocked if I told you that Jerrod Heard is averaging only 0.2 yards per rush more than Tyrone Swoopes? Borderline shocked, at least?
… Texas passing game this season: 50.5-percent completions, three touchdowns, two interceptions and 120.3 total quarterback efficiency.
Opponents passing game: 66.9-percent completions, 16 touchdowns, five interceptions and 164.2 total quarterback efficiency.
… Daje Johnson is on pace to lead the Texas passing game with a projected 33.6 receptions over 12 games, which would represent the fewest passes caught by the leading receiver of the team since 1997 when Kwame Cavil lead the team with 23.
… Malik Jefferson is a whale of a young linebacker, but everyone should save the Derrick Johnson comparisons because he’s just not making the impact plays that Johnson produced in a back-up role in 2001. Johnson recorded 83 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in his freshman campaign, while Jefferson is on pace for 74.4 tackles, 8.4 tackles for loss and zero sacks.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
(As always these are real questions submitted by real Orangebloods subscribers.)
(BUY or SELL) Charlie is the head coach at UT in Fall of 2016?
(Buy) Until I hear otherwise and we see some movement on an athletic director hire, Strong is going to return for a third season. I’ve said it a million times, but the decision-makers believe there’s been too much unrest and upheaval in the last couple years and don't believe that change is the best move right now.
(BUY or SELL) Chad Morris would be doing a better job now at Texas than Charlie Strong has?
(Buy) Two thoughts. It’s kind of a loaded question because as it currently stands, I think you can make a case that it couldn’t get much worse. Second, at the very least you’d have to think Morris would have the offense in a much better state. Hell, the Mustangs scored 37 points two weeks ago against the same TCU defense that neutered the Longhorns.
(BUY or SELL) Kris Boyd's teammates forgive him for being a little turd on his cell phone at halftime in the locker room?
(Buy) The Tweet was far from outside the type of behavior that I think most that know Boyd would expect and it helps that he’s a good player with a lot of talent. Maturity is an issue for all 18-year-olds and it’s probably more so with Boyd than a lot of guys. His teammates probably won’t view this as the type of betrayal that the fans will.
(BUY or SELL) Charlie brings in the type of coaching talent next year to help this team?
(Sell) Strong isn’t an offensive coach and based on his previous hires on that side of the ball, it’s hard to call the situation anything better than 50-50.
(BUY or SELL) If the decision were being made today, the Texas decision makers would still hire Charlie Strong?
(Sell) If they knew then what they know now, I think the decision-makers would have to lean towards someone with more of a true offensive background, as well as someone who would represent more of a sure thing as a recruiter inside the state of Texas.
(BUY or SELL) OB staff has a love affair with Strong and is mad at Mack for not being nice to them?
(Sell) Our quest is to always tell you how it is without as much confirmation bias as possible. If you look at the way we covered Mack Brown, I think we were completely fair and deadly accurate with a number of things we reported. Meanwhile, I think we’ve been completely fair with Strong. For instance, what have you read in this column that suggests we’re in his hip pocket because we’re blinded by love?
(BUY or SELL) There are more fans at the 1997 UT/Kansas game than the 2015 UT/Kansas game?
(Sell) They’ll break the 68,000 barrier. Missing that mark would represent the lowest crowd number since stadium expansion by 20,000.
(BUY or SELL) A 3-parter: a) Texas wins four games this year. b) Charlie Strong is the Texas Head Coach on January 1, and if so, why? c) Tom Herman takes over as the next Head Coach, be it 2016 or 2017? If not, assuming Charlie is gone at least by the end of next season, who does?
(Sell) Kansas is a sure thing in my mind, while Kansas State and Iowa State are coin-flips, and Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Baylor should be games (at least at this point) where the team is a definite underdog. If Longhorns go 50-50 on the coin-flip games, it gets them to four, but the math suggests that doing so is a 25-percent proposition. Perhaps that’s what will be on the line when the team plays Tech on Thanksgiving.
b. (Buy) See above. The current vibe among decision-makers is that a move would represent desperation and panic.
c. (Sell) I said this in December of 2013 and I’ll repeat it every time anyone ever asks… this is not a learn on the job type of job. If you’re the richest program in the country and one of the
winningest in the history of the sport, you must find a sure thing. That means someone who has accomplished big things in the big ring, and not someone you’re guessing about. Herman is a total guess at this point with few head coaching skins on the wall.
(BUY or SELL) I joined OB a week before the 2010 season. I'm the problem and should drop my membership? Either that or the grass to turf at DKR.
(Sell) Blame the grass because you’re literally one of a couple of thousand that signed up that year.
(BUY or SELL) The O-line remains the worst unit and biggest problem on a very bad team across the board?
(Buy) I’m not sure it changes in 2016.
(BUY or SELL) Texas finishes in the top 25 in recruiting for 2016 come Feb?
(Buy) Man, it’s going to be close. It’s likely going to take about seven four-star prospects, 15 three-stars and a 3.3 average star ranking to get there. Texas currently has a 3.33 average ranking and I’m not sure it’s going to go up from here, although I do believe Texas will finish with 6-8 four-star prospects. Like I said, it’s going to be close.
(BUY or SELL) After OU we string together wins until Baylor?
(Sell) This is a team that ranks among the worst in the country in both offense and defense as it approaches the midway point of the season. Nothing about what this team is doing suggests that it’s headed for a “string” of wins.
No. 6 – Week 2 CFB Randomness ...
… If I had a vote that mattered …
1. Alabama
2. Utah
3. LSU
4. Texas A&M
5. Florida
6. Clemson
7. Baylor
8. Ohio State
9. Oklahoma
10. TCU
… I know people are going to think I’m crazy or trying to be controversial, but I think the Crimson Tide is the best team in the nation and I think eventually the rankings will reflect my thinking and/or Alabama wins the SEC and makes it into the four-team playoff with a single loss. What happened against Ole Miss was just one of those nights because if they play that team on a neutral field 10 times, I think Alabama wins at least seven times. In addition, Saturday’s win over Georgia was the single-most impressive and complete win/performance I’ve seen this season. Besides, what team should definitely be ranked ahead of the Tide? Don’t name a team that hasn’t played anyone. Bottom line: I think Alabama is the best team in the country, even if it has a loss.
… You simply cannot get into a track meet with Baylor. You will lose. You have to force turnovers, limit turnovers and score touchdowns. Or you will lose.
p.s. Art Briles still enabled a predator on his team at the expense of a female student-athlete and has yet to answer for or truly address the matter. Do not forget.
… Don’t look now, but Oklahoma is playing a damn good brand of football and seems to be getting better each week. Consider me impressed with it’s dismantling of West Virginia on Saturday. On a day when the Sooners probably played a B-level game on offense, OU still passed for more than 300 yards, while the defense finally produced game-changing plays (five created turnovers on Saturday) against the best offense it has faced all season. Nice job, Bob Stoops.
… Michigan State currently looks like all kinds of fool’s gold.
… The loss of Malik Zaire finally caught up with the Irish. I’m not so sure the Irish wouldn’t be my No. 1 or No. 2 if he doesn’t get hurt.
… Josh Rosen just isn’t ready for prime-time. Not yet, anyways.
… Leonard Fournette is doing everything he can to lock up the Heisman by mid-November. I’m not even sure if he has a true No. 2 chasing him at the moment.
… Hate on A&M all you want, but that team waxed an Arizona State team that just beat down UCLA, it beat Arkansas on a neutral field and it completely outclassed Mississippi State on Saturday night. That’s not a bad five-week resume. You can make the case it’s as good as anyone’s.
… As I said a week ago, the demise of David Shaw was greatly exaggerated …
No. 7 – I'm a pretty dispirited Cowboys fan tonight …
Two weeks ago, I theorized that the Cowboys needed to go 3-5 over the course of the next
eight games if it wanted to have a chance to make a run at the playoffs once Tony Romo and Dez Bryant returned.
Two weeks later, the Cowboys have dropped two straight games (despite leading in the second half of both games) and it's going to take .500 football over the course of the next six games to get to a 5-5 mark after 10 games.
Meanwhile, players continue to drop like flies within Daniel Larusso's reach and what remains is a poor man's version of an NFL team.
It doesn't seem very fair, but few things in the NFL are.
Someone give me a hug.
No. 8 – Eternal Randomness of the Spotty Sports Mind …
… Scattershooting on the NFL weekend …
a. Does Bill O’Brien deserve at least a little heat for the decisions he’s made and the way his team has performed through four games? Just a little? I ask because any time you get worked by 27 points in the NFL, some questions need to be asked.
b. Is Andy Dalton finally reaching a new level of play or is he going to pull the rug out from underneath Bengals fans in January, as always? It feels like I’m looking at a mirage, but damn, there’s no doubting the ginger is playing his rear end off.
c. Indianapolis is so lucky not to be 0-4 right now. Also, did Matt Hasselbeck just give the Colts their best quarterback performance through the first quarter of the season?
d. It’s always impossible to cheer for either team when Washington plays Philadelphia, but I will admit to smiling when the Eagles lost in the closing seconds. Bwahahahahahaha
e. My goodness, the Dolphins are a mess. There’s not really one part of that team to be excited about right now outside of Jarvis Landry and Brent Grimes’ wife.
f. I wish I had given more respect to Brandon Marshall when compiling my personal pre-season fantasy football rankings, but thank goodness I was all over Chris Ivory in three different drafts. Tell me the Jets aren’t 3-1.
g. Maybe we should put the anointing oil away as it relates to the Arizona Cardinals …
h. I will start Todd Gurley in fantasy football forever more.
i. Aaron Rodgers was mortal on Sunday and the Packers still won by two scores. That’s a good football team right there, folks.
j. Poor Cleveland …
… Scattershooting on UFC192...
a. The card as a whole was very disappointing, but the main event was a hell of a battle and I thought the judges got it right in giving Daniel Cormier a close decision (I had it 48-47 on my personal scorecard). He might not be Jon Jones, but if that’s the worst thing you can say about someone in the Octagon, that’s not too shabby.
b. The Ryan Bader/Rashad Evans fight was a flat out dud and I’d have a hard time giving Bader a title shot after that performance. Who in the hell wants to see that guy get a shot?
c. I’m guessing that Dana White remembers Johny Hendricks failing to meet weight and forcing a cancellation to the co-main event on the card for a very long time. Personally, I would be absolutely livid after hearing reports that he was 20 pounds away from the needed weight less than a week before the fight.
… Scattershooting on the end of the MLB regular season ...
a. It’s amazing to see a 162-game season come down to the final day for three teams in one
division. At the end of the day, attaboy, Texas. Attaboy, Houston.
b. The Rangers gave up a prospect haul to get Cole Hamels, but I’m guessing his performance on Sunday (a complete game to run his record to 7-1) really made it worth it, especially since he’s going to be with the team for the foreseeable future. You guys are going to love him in the postseason, trust me.
c. Astros vs. Yankees is going to be a hell of a lot of one-day, winner-take-all fun.
d. Max Scherzer is all kinds of awesome and that performance on Saturday night was the definition of an all-timer, as he struck out nine of his last 10 batters and set a record with strikeouts in a no-hitter with 17. How in the hell did Washington not make the playoffs with this dude and Bryce Harper playing for it?
e. With the first pick of the 2016 MLB Draft, the Philadelphia Phillies select… (help me here, McComas)
Is the answer a pitcher from Oklahoma?
… Scattershooting on week eight in the EPL.
a. Ding dong, the witch is dead. With the International break on the way, Liverpool sacked Brendan Rodgers and all signs seem to point to German Jurgen Klopp filling the void. From what I can see, that would be a pretty massive hire for the Reds. Thoughts, soccer heads?
b. Holy, Sergio Aguero! After a slow start to the season, his five goal onslaught against Newcastle was incredibly impressive.
c. If Alexis Sanchez was a character in an arcade game, he’d be Reggie Miller in the old NBA Jam after he’s hit three shots in a row.
d. Chelsea is four points away from the relegation range. That was fun to type.
e. Crystal. Freaking. Palace. Who knew?
No. 9 – Youtube Video of the Week ...
When I was a kid, this is the show in syndication that I used to rush home from grade school to watch.
I wonder what show my kids will want to watch when they are seven or right?
No.10 - And finally ...
The answers for section II.
a. Baylor 2014
b. TCU 2014
c. BYU 2014
d. TCU 2015
e. UCLA 2014
f. KSU 2014
g. Arkansas 2014
h. Notre Dame 2015
