OT: Paging clob...Wall Street

Discussion in 'Longhorn Sports' started by oldschoolcat, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. oldschoolcat

    oldschoolcat Well-Known Member
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    So you've said in the past that "blood on the street" is a buying opportunity. It has worked out nicely for the last few "dips", as everything seems to rebound quickly and continue on the previous trajectory.

    This one feels different. Talk us off the ledge....(or not).
     
  2. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    The market hates what?



    Uncertainty.


    I'm assuming you saw two things come out today:

    The fed increasing treasury note interest rates up to what? 3.2% I think? That's big. The Fed is trying to slow this freight train down a little. And did you see the poll numbers released today? It's been assumed by the "investors" that Democrats will pick up certain seats that were perceived as up for grabs, and it's looking as though the polls got out over their skis yet again and now are settling back in a different trend. <<<<<------- uncertainty.

    Let's throw a cherry on top of that as there was a huge sell off in insurance stocks because of a freaking hurricane....

    And as we all know, this party (and it's been an AWESOME ride so far regardless of your political beliefs) in the market can not go on forever. However, I will take a few small corrections over the period of a couple of years vs one massive correction at the end. You lost %3.15 for the year. You're still up (or at least you should be if your advisor isn't a total fvcking idiot) for the year and right now I'm starting Q4 up 17.2% after today's drop. Once I hit 10% I park a % in bonds and start rolling dice a little on the remainder.

    I can live with today and you should be able to as well. If you had some cash sitting on the sidelines, take a % of it and double down.... do some dollar cost averaging.
     
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  3. oldschoolcat

    oldschoolcat Well-Known Member
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    My advisor is a total amateur (ME) and I am up about 40% this year. Hasn't hurt that I got in a good position of SQ at $17.

    Something felt a little off about today's action to me. All of my charts looked identical, which usually gives me some reassurance that it is just the market being spooked rather than specific stock issues. Just a weird day.

    Getting to a point at which a full time advisor might be a good call. Thx sir.
     
  4. mm42

    mm42 Well-Known Member
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    The Fed rate increase should have been baked in, or at least that is what I would have thought. Tariffs are hurting China, and nobody wants a trade war between the world's 2 biggest economies.

    I will be surprised if tprays drop is still a big deal by Christmas.
     
  5. Belldozer1

    Belldozer1 Well-Known Member
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    I’m just holding tight on my Bitcoin fortune
     
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  6. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    The fed is also selling off the mortgage backed securities hoard that they started accumulating in 2008. On top of this, the treasury has been saving cash for the tax cuts in 2019. The counter to this is the largess being re-shored by corporations due to the tax provision for offshore profits. It's just now that the former is starting to swamp later.
     
  7. freeper

    freeper Well-Known Member
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    @clob94 hit on an important point from a historical point of view. The market hates uncertainty and politically, the landscape has shifted seismically in the last week. Unless the polls show a clear winner going into the final weeks before the election, (and look how that worked out in 2016) I would anticipate a rather chaotic October in the market. As the man said, hurricane season also makes an impact. Just .02 from a historian.....
     
  8. Longyac

    Longyac Well-Known Member
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    It is two fold, the huge increase in the deficit from the tax cut required accelerating raising Fed rates but the market effects are compounded by the actions against Iran that will put oil over $100/bbl a week or two after the election.
     
  9. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    I don't normally take wagers when it comes to betting on the market with individuals...... I prefer to bet with scenarios..... but I'd like to take that wager. Only because while meeting at the UN two weeks ago, I got to spend some time with some of the ministers of petroleum from some of the OPEC nations. They seemed to have a different take on it than you. They think Saudi and US will rush to fill that Iran void.

    Speaking of.... @LonghornMM you never told me if you got that photo of me at the UN with Gabe that I emailed you. I've got another one of me meeting with the Vice President of South Sudan.......... ya.....
     
  10. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    40% humble brag......
     
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  11. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    Dude....... I'm so totally going to drive out to your house and show all these dudes the "trailer" you live in if you keep this up.

    Oh ya dude, I know where you live. Your shopping cart grill.. the tires on your roof..... the out house in the back.... gonna shock folks on here when they find out poor old bell is in the 1%. Pffffftttt...... bitcoin! You kill me dude.
     
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  12. Belldozer1

    Belldozer1 Well-Known Member
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    I'm not hard to find up in the hills off Bretzke Lane. I'm like the Beverly Hillbillies over here, the mobile home version.
     
    12 Belldozer1, Oct 10, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
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  13. oldschoolcat

    oldschoolcat Well-Known Member
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    Diversified I am not. This tech selloff has made that number a bit more modest.
     
  14. LonghornMM

    LonghornMM Moderator
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    I never got your email. Check your PM on here.
     
  15. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    I just emailed you three photos. Who uses southwestern bell anymore? :p
     
  16. Longyac

    Longyac Well-Known Member
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    Does the loosening of the ethanol percentages play into that or was that strictly politics for agriculture losses in soy and pork? Oil needs to go up more for US fracking to fill the void.

    Hopefully someone on Trump's team will persuade Trump to support the Fed's moves, and use the bully pulpit to calm fears, as what he did yesterday could fan a panic selloff by the uninitiated.
     
    16 Longyac, Oct 11, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  17. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    Oil, beginning next year is going to rocket. We have not been drilling the number of wells needed to match demand. Increasing demand is coming from emerging mkts.. Sorry but recession is here. I hate to say it but it is. The hurricane was the straw that broke the camels back. Something always does.

    I started a thread about this 2 months ago. It's all about liquidity brothas.
     
  18. brushycreekhorn

    brushycreekhorn Well-Known Member
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    If u predict a bear market long enough then I guess you will be correct at some point.....
     
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  19. FlourBluffHorn

    FlourBluffHorn Well-Known Member
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    But, not for the Gov, just us, million dollar missiles, 68 mil fighter planes, New Air Force one which is not a drop in the bucket, paying politicians for work they supposed to be doping for the big and benefits we pay them, but, no help for the common people or our Vets that need new pieces of their bodies and the one who never got their financial help, well the people of America can't eat them Jets or missiles...sad! The people are in a recession not the Gov. Maybe I send my Light bill to Iraq , it might get paid...

    Some of these guys make LBJ look like a Choir Boy, I keep my money buried in the back yard, only safe place, if ya haven't made a couple of million by the age 40 then you been Fing off..LOL


    Hook'em
     
    19 FlourBluffHorn, Oct 11, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  20. TX1972

    TX1972 Well-Known Member
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    You do know that if fuel ethanol has any effect on petroleum usage it is extremely small? Obvious political ploy. Shows he cares. Fuel ethanol makes food for the masses more expensive, plows up a lot of land, destroys small engines, and makes a few people even richer. Crony capitalism. Bipartisan, Al Gore and Newt teamed up to to give us something that is both stupid and evil.
     
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  21. Longyac

    Longyac Well-Known Member
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    Considering most all gas is 10% ethanol I wouldn't say it is extremely small.

    I hate ethanol fuel for what it does to engines and that the mandate is nothing more than welfare for the corn industry. I have pure-gas.org bookmarked on my phone.
     
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  22. oldhorn2

    oldhorn2 Well-Known Member
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    Buy low, well high. That's the way to make money in the market. Sounds simple,right? The fact is that for humans, this is next to impossible. The few that have the discipline make big money. The run of the mill masses are just so much fodder Everone wants to buy a rising market and sell a falling one.

    The opportunity was there for all reading this to make lots of $ but if you didn't buy yesterday, you are already too late. Futures are indicating 350 to 400 up open today.
     
  23. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    Bonds are way oversold. When do they rally? Don't buy the dead cat.

    The blood is in the bond mkt..
     
    23 2300 Nueces, Oct 12, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
  24. diadevic

    diadevic Well-Known Member
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    On the bond side, I am a novice, but... One of the largest buyers of treasuries was the US quantitative easing. Without the US buying anymore, and now dumping its inventory -- isn't that a recipe for a dramatic and rapid rise in interest rates? Tell me where I'm wrong (not a challenge, just trying to learn).
     
  25. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    Yes, everyone has moved to your side of the boat. Stop watching cnbc, etc... So logically, as everyone is shorting bonds and going long stocks, stop orders are clustering at momo resistance levels and are the kindling. I just gave you the mechanics. Next peek at your lumber futures chart. It's in a bear mkt.. lumber futures pre-date construction market by one year. Dow pre-dates economy by 6 mo.. Lumber started wetting the bed in march. Do the math... Markets don't go from bull to bear overnight. There are often consolidations which take time.

    It comes down to the fed. They are decreasing liquidity which leads to less dollars. Next credit is used to replace missing dollars. Further reductions in liquidity lead to defaults as credit breaks. Credit cycle crushes stocks and bonds are bid. All being done to gather in bond bulls for slaughter in the next decade. Double top or something like that in bond mkt. Credit is the tail that wags the dog.

    Yes, I was an econ geek at UT.
     
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  26. FlourBluffHorn

    FlourBluffHorn Well-Known Member
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    Welcome to "Money Talks" with clob!


    [​IMG]




    Hook'em
     
  27. FlourBluffHorn

    FlourBluffHorn Well-Known Member
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    I will give all ya'll a good stock tip!

    Solar Panels for the Homes, California fixing to pass a law top require them on new homes, ya got panels you can live anywhere

    Hook'em
     
  28. cml7374

    cml7374 Well-Known Member
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    Listen.....do what i do.....take out a high interes loan from a loan shark.....about $500k......fly down to Vegas and put it all on black at the roulette table......after that quick double up.....take to the craps table and bet against everyone else.....not too big.....5k-10K . You will be up about 3million by the end of the night....head back to the roulette table put the 3million on RED this time and double up to 6million.....go home pay your loan shark 1million for interest and his precious time and take about a year off and do it all over again. Sure there are some disadvantages every now and then.....
     
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  29. DHHorn

    DHHorn Well-Known Member
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    What was the reason for the rally today?
     
  30. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    Well, when the Saudis are knocking off journalists in a consulate and the prez is talking sanctions, when oil is looking strong but not too pricey, when natty gas is surging over $3.40, when help wanted signs reach 7.1 million, and China looks as though they are about to bend the knee and say "no mas" to an administration that purposefully picked a fight and then kicked them square in their ding dongs--- you throw all that in a blender, mix it up, throw in a dash of horse faced pornstar, and a pinch of Cherokee senator, and you've got an entertaining day where traders see the elections might not go the way the media is predicting and some assemblance of stability is returning and the huge fund managers settle down and come back into the market after their sell off.
     
  31. cml7374

    cml7374 Well-Known Member
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    Means "bear market" is coming. Lol
     
  32. TX1972

    TX1972 Well-Known Member
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    I'm just a 37 year investor. I well remember paying prime + 1 on a loan for a commercial building. 13+1=14%. Some friends of my folks sold a piece of land and rolled it into muni bonds at 13%. I'm amazed that people lend $ at 3% for 10 years. I remember the stories of people who bought 3% bonds in the late 60s. They lost all their purchasing power. Lumber is different. Back in the 70s or 80s the feds were "encouraging" pine plantations with incentives. So, the south now has way too much pine.
     
  33. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    I'll roll you one--

    In 1981, my father took a 4.5 million dollar loan from the bank to purchase a gas compressing company in south Texas.

    The loan was financed at 18%.

    He had it paid off by 1993.

    I refuse to hear anybody, ever, b!tch about how hard it is to make a living with 3% loans.
     
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  34. TX1972

    TX1972 Well-Known Member
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    My loan was 1984. Interest rates came down, paid off the note with the rents, sold building in 1997. Put that in index funds, did great until 2001. Put 3 girls thru UT. Original cash $20,000.
     
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