OU Volleyball program has gone Uber woke!!!

[2300 Nueces]

It's a bubble. I've been building houses since 95. My step father built 1100 homes and I learned from him. Neither of us are building in this environment. It's been bad for awhile. Margins are thin and getting worse. Now is a time to sell. Do not build or buy, you'll regret it.

When the fire sale comes, it's going to be epic.

 

[oldhorn2]

Kind of reminds me of a story I heard about the hapsburgs in Europe. They were explaining the source of their vast wealth......They sais we learned early on that we were not smart, so we became accomodating. When people wanted to sell, we bought, and when they wanted to buy, we sold....

 

[clob94]

Kind of reminds me of a story I heard about the hapsburgs in Europe. They were explaining the source of their vast wealth......They sais we learned early on that we were not smart, so we became accomodating. When people wanted to sell, we bought, and when they wanted to buy, we sold....

Well, there's that and the fact that they were geographically located in the only part of eastern Europe that had a mountain pass that was traversable between Europe and Asia. So initially, they started charging taxes on goods coming in. Then they started charging on goods going out. Eventually they started charging you to come in from the east, and then leave through the west. Double taxation.

I've toured their palace in Vienna. I've also toured their "summer house" just outside Vienna. When you're so Fvcking rich that you build an entire room out of gold, the bed, the wallpaper, the sheets, the end tables, literally everything in the room is gold----- you're too fvcking rich.

 

[JDCPAgolferHorn]

It's a bubble. I've been building houses since 95. My step father built 1100 homes and I learned from him. Neither of us are building in this environment. It's been bad for awhile. Margins are thin and getting worse. Now is a time to sell. Do not build or buy, you'll regret it.

When the fire sale comes, it's going to be epic.

In your opinion, is this a national bubble? Or, more confined to certain regions (e.g., N TX or central TX).

 

[2300 Nueces]

In your opinion, is this a national bubble? Or, more confined to certain regions (e.g., N TX or central TX).

National but Texas is bad. I was selling houses 2400 sq ft 4bd 3ba 3grg for $87 a foot in 2009. They were 1 acre with aerobic septic and a 400 ft well in Trinity aquifer. That was my selling price. Now, the same houses are going for $200 a sq ft.. In 12 years... that's a bubble.

For reference most homes in the "countryish" areas of Texas in 2006 were selling for $100 per sq ft. The bottom in 2009 dropped house prices to $87 per sq ft, roughly. That was a 13% correction. If we were to have the same correction, prices would drop by $26 per sq ft.. This bubble won't be 13%. It will likely be a 50% bubble for 5-10 years. That is my best guess. When? It will begin at the end of 2022 and the bottom will drop out in 2024. I am expecting a builder extinction event. There won't be any solvent builders, well very few. I'll step back in when the fire sale comes if I'm not too old.

The real estate/building business is similar to the oil industry in the boom bust cycles.

Edit: according to the lumber futures charts, the correction/crash will begin in May of 2022.