What's been LIED about for the last 4 years is a BIG obstacle to overcome.
| Hand Off We're racing towards year end and so far this year has been nothing short of incredible. We've had 56 new all time highs on the S&P this year. That didn't even happen in the tech boom years. Does this economy deserve such lofty valuations? Depends on whom you ask. If you're a Wall Street guy looking for a huge Christmas bonus, hell yeah. If you're the average middle class person, barely making it because a damn can of soup that used to cost you 98 cents in 2019, is now 2.35, you can't grasp this market. But the bottom line is that it's all fake. Sure, there are some companies doing very well. Did you know that during the great depression, where people had like zero money, the greetings card companies did very well. You might be down on your luck, but you'd spend 5 cents on a Holiday card for your mom or a get-well card for your brother, etc. Even in bear markets, someone's doing okay.So yeah, NVDA is reaping the bounty of the so-called AI revolution. But does that really help the XYZ company that makes widgets? Not very much actually. When most people look and see the S&P up 24% on the year, they think all 500 companies are up. Well, no. Take out the darling stocks and the S&P would only be up 5% and over 100 are lower than they started the year. I don't want to list 120 companies but there's names you know that you probably have thought were winning big. NOPE. Boeing's down 38%, Intel 58%, Dollar general down 48%. Lulu lemon down 32%, Nike down 30%, Humana 38%, Microchip down 35%, Target down 10%, & Pepsi down 6%. I could go on and on and on. So, this market run up has NOT included everyone. You've of course heard of the NASDAQ 100. Touted as the latest greatest, right? Well, 30 of that mighty 100 are RED on the year. Think on that. The biggest market rally almost ever, and 30 of their wunderkind are red.In January, if no nut jobs kill Trump, he's coming into a fairy tale economy. It's all supposedly rainbows and unicorns...but unfortunately, it's all fake. Inflation is rising, not falling. 40% of all car loans from 2022 to now are delinquent. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Commercial real estate is creaking and groaning. Oh, and the jobs numbers? Really? They had to remove almost a million of them a few months ago, because they were reported as real...but didn't exist. My point being that Trump is walking straight into a nasty trap. Do you think the CPI numbers are real? They're not, they're manipulated. Our GDP numbers have been manipulated with Government jobs/deals. Think of it like this.... Biden dumps a ton of our strategic oil reserves, and thus gas goes down. The CPI reflects that as inflation falling. However, it's fake. If not for the dumping, which at some point has to be replaced, the CPI would be considerably higher. This is true not only in oil, but in other areas.So as 2025 develops, the fragile economy and the persistent inflation is going to become pronounced. The Democrats will jump all over him and his cabinet, suggesting that all was well under Biden and "Now look what the republicans have done!" So, what's the man to do? Yeah, he's got all sorts of plans, but they won't work in time. If I was him, I'd come out swinging on day 1 and tell the world "They handed me broken economy folks. They've lied about our growth, our debts, our inflation, everything!" I'd straight up address the population and let the Biden cat right out of the bag. He could say something like this... "Biden's economy was smoke and mirrors. Here's how they lied about jobs, here's how they lied about GDP, here's how they lied about inflation reduction and his other baloney. I will fix all of this, but it will take some time, and at points it won't seem pleasant. But this is what was handed to me, in hopes that I fail, and they get to blame me for a crashing economy and stock market. They've set us up for failure, and I want to show you exactly how."If he got in front of it like that, I think the 80+ million that voted for him would appreciate the honesty. Because make no mistake about it, we're on a collision course with an economic iceberg and it remains to be seen as to how hard we hit. Enjoy this market run, but understand, it's not organic. It will indeed stop and unwind. But that's last... first the economy becomes unglued, they print more money and cut rates to save it. But it's too late. Then and only then, will the debt market shudder and the stock market crashes. There's still drama ahead. |
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