Sagarin Ratings Analysis (only one loss, very close, and only 3 close wins)

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Using Jeff Sagarin's preseason ratings and his 2.45 points advantage for a home game:

Texas Projected Loss (Team and point differential)

Georgia 0.42

Texas Projected Wins (Team and point differential)

Michigan 7.54
A&M 8.92
OU 10.27
Florida 20.23
Kentucky 20.53
Arkansas 21.01
UTSA 27.33
Mississippi St. 28.64
Vanderbilt 33.67
Colorado St. 35.55
La. Monroe 50.75

Highly favorable SEC schedule. Texas doesn't have to play the 3rd-6th rated SEC teams - Alabama, Mississippi, LSU, Missouri. Texas would be a 10 point or less favorite over those teams on a neutral field. 4 close games avoided. 5 of Texas' SEC games are against the 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th and 16th rated teams.

Average SEC team 83.69 (Texas is 96.72)
Average Big 10 team 77.95
Average Big 12 team 77.94
Average ACC team 73.97
Average Mountain West team 63.23 (5th best conference)

Big 12 is dead even with the Big 10.
8 Big 12 teams would be more competitive than Florida (11th in the SEC).
However, 5 SEC teams are higher rated than the top team in the Big 12 (Utah).
Vanderbilt is 8.38 points worse than the lowest rated team in the Big 12 (Houston)
Mississippi St. would be the next to last rated team in the Big 12, just below Arizona St.

 

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