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Season Win Totals Out in Vegas: Texas at 8.5

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Sporty702

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May 18, 2017
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South Point in Vegas just released season win totals today for the upcoming college football season and Texas sitting at 8.5.

Early Texas spreads (early money in Vegas loving Texas):

-3 vs USC (opened USC -1)
-2.5 vs TCU (opened pick)
+6 vs Oklahoma (opened 12)

Some other notable numbers:

Alabama at 11
Clemson at 11
Michigan AND at Michigan State both at 9
Ohio State at 10.5
Washington 10.5

Complete List
 
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Are these bets for 12 regular season games only? Or does this include postseason conference championships, bowl games and playoffs?
 
Vegas know what they are doing don't they. That's the perfect number right now.

Under.
 
ekal48 said:
Vegas know what they are doing don't they. That's the perfect number right now.

Under.
Click to expand...
Kinda. Aren’t lines more so what they think will initiate money flow on both sides? And Texas is notorious for lines being skewed in their favor because of an enormous loyal fan base that will always bet Texas.
 
That being said that’s a risky bet for a team that hasn’t broken .500 in the last 4 seasons to jump to 9-3.
 
q1w2e3 said:
Kinda. Aren’t lines more so what they think will initiate money flow on both sides? And Texas is notorious for lines being skewed in their favor because of an enormous loyal fan base that will always bet Texas.
Click to expand...

You're right about Texas, and the Cowboys for that matter, getting lines that don't make a lot of sense at times. Not so much now, but in the past when Texas was really good there were some crazy numbers going around.

When I used to bet on a regular basis, a lot of times I would take points against Texas, and the Cowboys. Many times it would pay off, but it is really hard betting against Texas. To hell with the Cowboys and Goober Jones, loved collecting money betting against them.
 
IMO, our O line will be the rate limiting factor. Our QBs are good enough that they won't lose games (game that we should theoretically win) if our O line does a decent job. By decent, I mean somewhere above average. Our defense will keep us in games if they aren't forced to be on the field 2/3 of every game due to 3 and outs.
 
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Definitely would take the under right now. I have you at seven wins, eight being your ceiling without upsets.
 
2300 Nueces said:
Talk about high, 10.5 for ou. Your qb is going to suck. Someone thinks BM is still in school.
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I know this is a thread about Texas football, and OU's success or lack of it will have very little impact on Texas' season outside our game. But I'll go one better...it's hard to pick a number for OU because we don't even know if our presumed starting QB is going to be on campus, or playing in MLB. So it's had to agree or disagree with you about whether our QB is going to suck.

Buuuut, I still like our chances to four-peat as Big Twelve Champs. And you need to define "suck" as it relates to our QB play. Under 60% completion rate, less than 20 TDs, less than 2,500 yards passing, over 12 INT's? I'm not unwilling to discuss this with you, but I'll need to know what you mean by "our QB wills suck".
 
Compared to BM, all other aspects of your team are going to have to get a lot better. I don't think they will be 10-11 wins better. Nothing personal but I don't see your qb's being as good, nothing to go on.... rookie surprises in cfb are very rare.
 
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Hmmmm....

“That being said that’s a risky bet for a team that hasn’t broken .500 in the last 4 seasons to jump to 9-3.”

So, how is saying eight wins is your ceiling much different than saying 9 wins is a risky bet? It doesn’t sound like we’re that far apart.
 
MiccoMacey said:
Hmmmm....

“That being said that’s a risky bet for a team that hasn’t broken .500 in the last 4 seasons to jump to 9-3.”

So, how is saying eight wins is your ceiling much different than saying 9 wins is a risky bet? It doesn’t sound like we’re that far apart.
Click to expand...
Not being sure if I’m north of 50/50 on 9+ wins is definitely different than 7 wins with a CEILING of 8.
 
Here ya go Micco....I agree that OU should be the favorite to win the B12....not a shoo in....just the favorite. I think you will win 2 less games this year than last year just on QB play. Mayfield was really good and that makes a bigger difference than lots of folks realize. By the same token, I am pretty sure we ought to be 2 wins better than last year just on QB and OL improvement. Will I be right? I have been before....of course I have been watching football for decades. You have to be right sometime! I have been wrong plenty as well.

what yall have to over come that we dont is the OU still sucks factor.
 
oldhorn2 said:
Here ya go Micco....I agree that OU should be the favorite to win the B12....not a shoo in....just the favorite. I think you will win 2 less games this year than last year just on QB play. Mayfield was really good and that makes a bigger difference than lots of folks realize. By the same token, I am pretty sure we ought to be 2 wins better than last year just on QB and OL improvement. Will I be right? I have been before....of course I have been watching football for decades. You have to be right sometime! I have been wrong plenty as well.

what yall have to over come that we dont is the OU still sucks factor.
Click to expand...

That's a good take, especially if the o'line is improved. QB kinda has me worried, but one kinda helps the other on the improvement deal.

If that happens, 2 wins more than last year are possible if we don't lose to somebody we should beat. Still if I had to bet right now I would take under 8.5.

Looks like 8 to me for us.

Don't know about OU except you're right, they still suck.
 
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Promotion/Relegation would be awesome!

You have 6 regions of 20+ teams and 2-3 levels at each. Winner of each region goes to the playoffs. Bottom of the group is relegated to a lower level and the top of the lower divisions are promoted.

For example.

South States

Texas
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Kansas
Missouri,
Arkansas
Louisiana

Top Division (Based on Vegas odds to win title)

Oklahoma (CFP)
LSU (CFP)
Texas (Bowl)
Texas A&M (Bowl)
TCU
Mizzou
Oklahoma State
Kansas State (Promotion Playoff)
Baylor (Relegated)
Texas Tech (Relegated)

Second Division

Houston (Promoted)
Kansas (Promoted)
North Texas (Promotion Playoff)
La Tech (Promotion Playoff)
Arkansas State (Promotion Playoff)
SMU
UTSA
LA Lafayette (Promotion Playoff)
Rice (Relegated)
LA Monroe (Relegated)

Third Division

Tulsa (Promoted)
New Mexico (Promoted)
Texas State (Promotion Playoff)
New Mexico St. (Promotion Playoff)
UTEP (Promotion Playoff)
Tulane
SHSU
SFA
McNeese St.
Central Arkansas

You could take this down as far as you wanted. Add more teams or less teams in the lower divisions or whatever.

Obviously this will never happen but fun to think about...at least for me LOL
 
q1w2e3 said:
Not being sure if I’m north of 50/50 on 9+ wins is definitely different than 7 wins with a CEILING of 8.
Click to expand...
My bad. I read your statement as it was a risky proposition to go 9-3, for a team that hasn't broken .500 in four years. I don't see how that's you being undecided of being north of 9+ wins. To me, that says you're undecided on even making it to 9. Which, to me, reads you're somewhere between 8 and 9. I'm somewhere between 7 and 8. I didn't see that as much difference.

Either or, we'll find out soon enough.
 
oldhorn2 said:
Here ya go Micco....I agree that OU should be the favorite to win the B12....not a shoo in....just the favorite. I think you will win 2 less games this year than last year just on QB play. Mayfield was really good and that makes a bigger difference than lots of folks realize. By the same token, I am pretty sure we ought to be 2 wins better than last year just on QB and OL improvement. Will I be right? I have been before....of course I have been watching football for decades. You have to be right sometime! I have been wrong plenty as well.

what yall have to over come that we dont is the OU still sucks factor.
Click to expand...
I agree about QB play. Baker was once in a lifetime. He had statistically the best season ever two years ago, and followed that up by breaking his own record. He'll be missed more than some OU fans want to admit right now.
 
It’s hard to find more than 8 if we’re being honest

Give them

Maryland
Tulsa
Baylor
Iowa state
Kansas

That means to get to 9 that’s 4 wins out of the following games

Vs USC
@. Kstate
OU
Vs WVU
TCU
@ OSU
@ Tech

I don’t think it’s impossible to win 5 of those games at get to 9, but not something I’d bet on
 
MiccoMacey said:
Definitely would take the under right now. I have you at seven wins, eight being your ceiling without upsets.
Click to expand...

I think we have a legitimate chance of winning 9 this year. One reason is Todd Orlando. He also has a good staff around him. Craig Naivar and Jason Washington are good coaches in the secondary. UT has had a tradition of dbu and we took a big step towards that last year.

If our special teams take a step forward we can win 9 games with defense and special teams. That may not sound exciting, kinda sounds like Fred Akers fb but were just starting the Tom Herman era.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a conservative offense this year. Built around discipline ie.. few penalties, and. execution ie. few turnovers. With a top notch defense if were good enough to score enough points to win then 9 wins is possible. And hopefully our offense will show significant improvement throughout the season.

And that's exactly what we did in the Houston Bowl. Intangibles. For various reasons to numerous to post here about 10 players didn't play in the Houston Bowl. But despite not having those players what I saw was a team that has bought in to Coach Herman's vision and that is huge and hopefully the suspensed players will do the same.

Number 2 a coaching staff in tact from last year. This will be huge for the players on offense.

The three games listed above are teams that we will have played by 10/6. Those 3 teams will be breaking in new qb's. I hope Oklahoma's new qb doesn't come into his own until 10/7 lol.

Of course that's just my opinion I could wrong.
Dennis Miller
 
ryan_sublett said:
It’s hard to find more than 8 if we’re being honest

Give them

Maryland
Tulsa
Baylor
Iowa state
Kansas

That means to get to 9 that’s 4 wins out of the following games

Vs USC
@. Kstate
OU
Vs WVU
TCU
@ OSU
@ Tech

I don’t think it’s impossible to win 5 of those games at get to 9, but not something I’d bet on
Click to expand...

We will beat 2/3 USC, WVU and TCU

We'll win 2/3 of Iowa State, oSu, Tech.

That puts Texas at 8 with OU and Kstate up in the air
 
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