Season Win Totals Out in Vegas: Texas at 8.5

Discussion in 'Longhorn Sports' started by Sporty702, May 27, 2018.

  1. Sporty702

    Sporty702 Member
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    South Point in Vegas just released season win totals today for the upcoming college football season and Texas sitting at 8.5.

    Early Texas spreads (early money in Vegas loving Texas):

    -3 vs USC (opened USC -1)
    -2.5 vs TCU (opened pick)
    +6 vs Oklahoma (opened 12)

    Some other notable numbers:

    Alabama at 11
    Clemson at 11
    Michigan AND at Michigan State both at 9
    Ohio State at 10.5
    Washington 10.5

    Complete List
     
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  2. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    Are you advocating sports betting?
     
  3. ryan_sublett

    ryan_sublett Well-Known Member
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    I’d take the under. I think 8 is right where we will finish.
     
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  4. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Are these bets for 12 regular season games only? Or does this include postseason conference championships, bowl games and playoffs?
     
  5. weevilcatch

    weevilcatch Well-Known Member
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    No bowl games. Conference champ games count though I think
     
  6. RoboCocks21

    RoboCocks21 Well-Known Member
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    Well betting will be legal from what I hear so
     
  7. ekal48

    ekal48 Well-Known Member
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    Vegas know what they are doing don't they. That's the perfect number right now.

    Under.
     
  8. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Kinda. Aren’t lines more so what they think will initiate money flow on both sides? And Texas is notorious for lines being skewed in their favor because of an enormous loyal fan base that will always bet Texas.
     
  9. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    That being said that’s a risky bet for a team that hasn’t broken .500 in the last 4 seasons to jump to 9-3.
     
  10. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    8-4 would be good. With our sub par offense, 8 wins is a good expectation.
     
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  11. ekal48

    ekal48 Well-Known Member
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    You're right about Texas, and the Cowboys for that matter, getting lines that don't make a lot of sense at times. Not so much now, but in the past when Texas was really good there were some crazy numbers going around.

    When I used to bet on a regular basis, a lot of times I would take points against Texas, and the Cowboys. Many times it would pay off, but it is really hard betting against Texas. To hell with the Cowboys and Goober Jones, loved collecting money betting against them.
     
  12. westx

    westx Well-Known Member
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    IMO, our O line will be the rate limiting factor. Our QBs are good enough that they won't lose games (game that we should theoretically win) if our O line does a decent job. By decent, I mean somewhere above average. Our defense will keep us in games if they aren't forced to be on the field 2/3 of every game due to 3 and outs.
     
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  13. MiccoMacey

    MiccoMacey Well-Known Member
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    Definitely would take the under right now. I have you at seven wins, eight being your ceiling without upsets.
     
  14. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    Talk about high, 10.5 for ou. Your qb is going to suck. Someone thinks BM is still in school.
     
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  15. MiccoMacey

    MiccoMacey Well-Known Member
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    I know this is a thread about Texas football, and OU's success or lack of it will have very little impact on Texas' season outside our game. But I'll go one better...it's hard to pick a number for OU because we don't even know if our presumed starting QB is going to be on campus, or playing in MLB. So it's had to agree or disagree with you about whether our QB is going to suck.

    Buuuut, I still like our chances to four-peat as Big Twelve Champs. And you need to define "suck" as it relates to our QB play. Under 60% completion rate, less than 20 TDs, less than 2,500 yards passing, over 12 INT's? I'm not unwilling to discuss this with you, but I'll need to know what you mean by "our QB wills suck".
     
  16. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    Compared to BM, all other aspects of your team are going to have to get a lot better. I don't think they will be 10-11 wins better. Nothing personal but I don't see your qb's being as good, nothing to go on.... rookie surprises in cfb are very rare.
     
    16 2300 Nueces, Jun 1, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
  17. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Hahahaha
     
  18. MiccoMacey

    MiccoMacey Well-Known Member
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    q1w2e3,

    Are you laughing because you disagree with my assessment of Texas?
     
  19. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Yes
     
  20. MiccoMacey

    MiccoMacey Well-Known Member
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    Hmmmm....

    “That being said that’s a risky bet for a team that hasn’t broken .500 in the last 4 seasons to jump to 9-3.”

    So, how is saying eight wins is your ceiling much different than saying 9 wins is a risky bet? It doesn’t sound like we’re that far apart.
     
  21. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Not being sure if I’m north of 50/50 on 9+ wins is definitely different than 7 wins with a CEILING of 8.
     
  22. oldhorn2

    oldhorn2 Well-Known Member
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    Here ya go Micco....I agree that OU should be the favorite to win the B12....not a shoo in....just the favorite. I think you will win 2 less games this year than last year just on QB play. Mayfield was really good and that makes a bigger difference than lots of folks realize. By the same token, I am pretty sure we ought to be 2 wins better than last year just on QB and OL improvement. Will I be right? I have been before....of course I have been watching football for decades. You have to be right sometime! I have been wrong plenty as well.

    what yall have to over come that we dont is the OU still sucks factor.
     
  23. ekal48

    ekal48 Well-Known Member
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    That's a good take, especially if the o'line is improved. QB kinda has me worried, but one kinda helps the other on the improvement deal.

    If that happens, 2 wins more than last year are possible if we don't lose to somebody we should beat. Still if I had to bet right now I would take under 8.5.

    Looks like 8 to me for us.

    Don't know about OU except you're right, they still suck.
     
    23 ekal48, Jun 2, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
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  24. weevilcatch

    weevilcatch Well-Known Member
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    Promotion/Relegation would be awesome!

    You have 6 regions of 20+ teams and 2-3 levels at each. Winner of each region goes to the playoffs. Bottom of the group is relegated to a lower level and the top of the lower divisions are promoted.

    For example.

    South States

    Texas
    Oklahoma
    New Mexico
    Kansas
    Missouri,
    Arkansas
    Louisiana

    Top Division (Based on Vegas odds to win title)

    Oklahoma (CFP)
    LSU (CFP)
    Texas (Bowl)
    Texas A&M (Bowl)
    TCU
    Mizzou
    Oklahoma State
    Kansas State (Promotion Playoff)
    Baylor (Relegated)
    Texas Tech (Relegated)

    Second Division

    Houston (Promoted)
    Kansas (Promoted)
    North Texas (Promotion Playoff)
    La Tech (Promotion Playoff)
    Arkansas State (Promotion Playoff)
    SMU
    UTSA
    LA Lafayette (Promotion Playoff)
    Rice (Relegated)
    LA Monroe (Relegated)

    Third Division

    Tulsa (Promoted)
    New Mexico (Promoted)
    Texas State (Promotion Playoff)
    New Mexico St. (Promotion Playoff)
    UTEP (Promotion Playoff)
    Tulane
    SHSU
    SFA
    McNeese St.
    Central Arkansas

    You could take this down as far as you wanted. Add more teams or less teams in the lower divisions or whatever.

    Obviously this will never happen but fun to think about...at least for me LOL
     
  25. MiccoMacey

    MiccoMacey Well-Known Member
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    My bad. I read your statement as it was a risky proposition to go 9-3, for a team that hasn't broken .500 in four years. I don't see how that's you being undecided of being north of 9+ wins. To me, that says you're undecided on even making it to 9. Which, to me, reads you're somewhere between 8 and 9. I'm somewhere between 7 and 8. I didn't see that as much difference.

    Either or, we'll find out soon enough.
     
  26. MiccoMacey

    MiccoMacey Well-Known Member
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    I agree about QB play. Baker was once in a lifetime. He had statistically the best season ever two years ago, and followed that up by breaking his own record. He'll be missed more than some OU fans want to admit right now.
     
  27. ryan_sublett

    ryan_sublett Well-Known Member
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    It’s hard to find more than 8 if we’re being honest

    Give them

    Maryland
    Tulsa
    Baylor
    Iowa state
    Kansas

    That means to get to 9 that’s 4 wins out of the following games

    Vs USC
    @. Kstate
    OU
    Vs WVU
    TCU
    @ OSU
    @ Tech

    I don’t think it’s impossible to win 5 of those games at get to 9, but not something I’d bet on
     
  28. LongfellowDrew

    LongfellowDrew Well-Known Member
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    OU loses all their games.
     
  29. outhereincali

    outhereincali Well-Known Member
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    I think we have a legitimate chance of winning 9 this year. One reason is Todd Orlando. He also has a good staff around him. Craig Naivar and Jason Washington are good coaches in the secondary. UT has had a tradition of dbu and we took a big step towards that last year.

    If our special teams take a step forward we can win 9 games with defense and special teams. That may not sound exciting, kinda sounds like Fred Akers fb but were just starting the Tom Herman era.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we have a conservative offense this year. Built around discipline ie.. few penalties, and. execution ie. few turnovers. With a top notch defense if were good enough to score enough points to win then 9 wins is possible. And hopefully our offense will show significant improvement throughout the season.

    And that's exactly what we did in the Houston Bowl. Intangibles. For various reasons to numerous to post here about 10 players didn't play in the Houston Bowl. But despite not having those players what I saw was a team that has bought in to Coach Herman's vision and that is huge and hopefully the suspensed players will do the same.

    Number 2 a coaching staff in tact from last year. This will be huge for the players on offense.

    The three games listed above are teams that we will have played by 10/6. Those 3 teams will be breaking in new qb's. I hope Oklahoma's new qb doesn't come into his own until 10/7 lol.

    Of course that's just my opinion I could wrong.
    Dennis Miller
     
  30. weevilcatch

    weevilcatch Well-Known Member
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    We will beat 2/3 USC, WVU and TCU

    We'll win 2/3 of Iowa State, oSu, Tech.

    That puts Texas at 8 with OU and Kstate up in the air
     
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