THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas’s quarterback situation is still cloudy heading into the USC game
Tom Herman was asked multiple times about his quarterback situation in Monday’s press conference, and while we got a few answers, I’m still not sure how this thing will play out in the short- or long-term. Honestly, I don’t think Herman has the answers just yet either.
Here’s what we actually know as of Tuesday morning …
- Shane Buechele is improving every day, but he didn’t test his arm over the weekend and the coaches won’t really have much of a feel on his status until they practice on Tuesday, at the earliest.
- Jerrod Heard will continue to work at quarterback. When Buechele is back and in full health, Heard will primarily focus on wide receiver, but he’ll likely get a few quarterback reps (at the least) in every game.
- If Buechele is healthy, he’ll be reinserted with the starters in practice. But it’s not a given he’ll hold onto that top spot if he doesn’t practice well.
Beyond those items listed above, everything is a bit of a guessing game, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. The snap distribution for this week’s game is still a mystery, and frankly, there’s probably going to be a lot of debate and discussion on the position for the rest of the year.
If the tone of OB is any indication, fans are already divided, with one half squarely in Buechele’s corner due to his experience and ability as a passer, and one if in Ehlinger’s corner due to his running ability and natural leadership skills. My advice to everyone … take a step back, quit trying to force some narrative and let this thing play out over the next several weeks. Trying to draw comparisons from Buechele’s game against Maryland and Ehlinger’s game against San Jose State is a near impossible task, and there’s no way to accurately measure one quarterback against the other after each has played in a total of one game against different levels of competition.
The hunch here – and this is purely a guess at this point – is that Ehlinger is the likely starter again this week. The fact that Buechele hasn’t thrown a football since the Maryland game just makes me think he’s going to have a hard time being ready for Southern Cal. And if he does play, the likelihood of him being anywhere near 100 percent with his throwing arm is pretty slim.
If Buechele is well enough to play, the guess here is that both players get action this week, which would give us a much better chance to measure each player. I’m not sure which way this thing will go in the long-term, but I still believe that in order for Texas to win this game, Buechele gives the Longhorns the best chance (if he’s healthy enough to be effective). Texas is going to need to catch lightning in a bottle on offense to some degree and put up some big plays, and Buechele’s accuracy downfield gives Texas the best chance to pull the upset.
2. Things have been pretty quiet, but it was a productive recruiting weekend for Texas
The Longhorns turned in an impressive performance last week in front a handful of top targets, and while it’s unlikely that a shutout win over San Jose State is going to move the meter too much, it does sound like Texas made a solid impression on the players in attendance.
Defensive end Ronnie Perkins, who was in town for an official visit, said every part of his weekend was a highlight.
“It was great,” Perkins said. “Everything was excellent from the players to the coaches, the campus, everything. The fans and everything were great.
“The whole weekend stands out. Every part of the weekend was good. Meeting the players and getting to hang out with them. Taquon Graham, the freshman defensive end, I got to meet him and talk to him and the coaches.”
Perkins, out of St. Louis Lutheran North, has been long-believed to be an Oklahoma lean going back to when I first interviewed him at the Rivals100 Five-Star Challenge, but the Rivals100 member sounded pretty open when I talked to him following his UT visit. I’m not going to put Texas in the driver’s seat or anything just yet, but the Longhorns definitely helped their chances last weekend.
The second official visitor of the weekend, defensive end Daniel Carson, is a man of few words so it’s tougher to get a read on him. Perkins and Carson are both from Missouri and did know each other coming into this weekend. It sounds like Carson also had a good visit.
“We went on an unofficial to Missouri a couple months ago. He had a good time (on his UT visit), enjoyed the school like I did and the game.”
The interest of top wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who took an unofficial visit for the SJSU game, is one we’ll have to continue to monitor, but Texas still has ground to make up in that one from what I’ve gathered. The predictions on Waddle have been all over the place over the last several months, with Texas, Texas A&M, Florida State and Alabama being the flavor of the week depending on when you ask. My stance has always been that Florida State is going to be extremely tough to beat in the long run based on things I’ve heard behind the scenes, and with Waddle set to visit FSU soon, I’m not ready to change my pick just yet. Texas will need to get Waddle on campus at least one more time, maybe more, to have a legitimate shot.
3. I may have just witnessed the worst weekend of NFL football I’ve ever seen
In my estimation, week one of the NFL season was a complete dud, especially for the offenses. From Pittsburgh to Cincinnati to New York (both of them) to New Orleans to Houston to Cleveland to Tennessee to Indianapolis to Green Bay to Seattle to San Francisco … it was downright bad. A little perspective … in 2016, the Rams had the NFL’s worst offense and were the only team in the NFL to average fewer than 300 yards of total offense per game. In week one of the 2017, 14 teams came in under 300 yards of total offense, and for most teams, points were at a premium.
I watched less NFL football on Sunday than I have in a couple years and things got so bad at one point I even opted for a quick nap during the Steelers game.
It’s week one and I’m guessing things will look a lot cleaner next week, but come on NFL, be better. Ridiculous ticket prices aren’t making for enjoyable game-day experiences and crappy offenses made it tough to even enjoy the games from the comfort of my own couch. Here’s to hoping for better weeks ahead.
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TWO QUESTIONS
1. Can Tom Herman get his team to play over its heads?
In his two years at Houston, Herman had an amazing knack for getting his team to play up for its biggest games, including a few shocking upsets in which Houston was given very little chance to win. In fact, in the three biggest games of Herman’s career (Florida State, Oklahoma, Louisville 2016), Houston didn’t just win, it dominated to the tune of three wins by a combined 50 points.
As impressive as those wins were, Herman may need to surpass those efforts if Texas is going to get the victory this week against Southern Cal. Unlike those other three games, this will be a true road contest. And unlike Houston, which quickly established a winning culture in Herman’s two years leading the program, Texas hasn’t yet shown that it can mentally and physical match up with some of the top programs on the Longhorns’ schedule.
Everyone expected that transformation to happen immediately, but Maryland cast an enormous shadow of doubt on this team with a dominating win over Texas in week one. Texas did rebuild some confidence with last weekend’s shutout win, but which of those two contests is a more accurate reflection of what type of team Texas really is? The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle, and if that’s the case, it’s going to take a near-flawless performance for Texas to get the win.
Herman said this week that his team’s success against ranked opponents while at Houston was a result of the Cougars believing that they were the best-trained team and the team that played with the greatest purpose. The Houston players, he said, played with an “unabashed love for the guy next to you and your coaches.” Those teams had confidence, an attitude and a fear of letting down everyone else in the program. Does Texas have that same kind of mindset, that same passion? I don’t know and while I have enough confidence in this staff that I think it is possible the Longhorns could pull off the upset, I’m just not sure I can give Texas the benefit of the doubt until I see Texas actually perform at a high level against a quality opponent.
2. How can Texas slow down USC’s offense?
Southern Cal comes into this game with one of college football’s most highly-regarded offenses and statistically, one of the country’s best offenses through two games, ranking 11th nationally with an average of 572 yards per game (Texas actually ranks 15th at 548 ypg). The Trojans are loaded with offensive star power, and with the up-and-down performances we’ve seen from the Texas defense, it’s hard to know what to expect in this one. Despite last week’s showing by UT, common sense would seem to indicate that the Longhorns are going to have their work cut out for them in slowing down Sam Darnold and the USC offense.
In order to have any chance in this one, Texas is going to have to find a way to get pressure on Darnold and at least make him uncomfortable. Through two games against lighter competition, the Longhorns have mustered all of two garbage-time sacks, which lumps them in with a bunch of other schools at 92nd nationally (USC isn’t much better with a total of 3 sacks through two games).
When asked on Monday about the lack of pressure Texas has been able to create, Tom Herman didn’t sound too worried and said it was more a result of opponents’ schemes than anything Texas was or was not doing. Perhaps the Longhorns can flip the switch this week, but Todd Orlando is going to have to get creative in his blitz packages and is going to have to be efficient when he does come after Darnold – if Texas doesn’t get to him, Darnold will make Texas pay or running back Ronald Jones can slip into the second level of the UT defense and will be off to the races.
I’m not sure what the solution is – if it’s a different scheme, personnel, or both – but Texas absolutely has to find a way to get pressure in the backfield without sacrificing too much and allowing USC to break off huge chunks of yards. Sounds easy, right? Personally, this feels like a week that plays right into the hands of a guy like Gary Johnson, whose speed and athleticism could be valuable in pressuring Darnold and against a speedy back like Jones.
Obviously, the Texas offense can make it much easier on the UT defense by playing some ball control offense against a suspect USC rush defense, helping keep Southern Cal’s high-powered offense off the field.
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ONE PREDICTION – The freshmen running backs move ahead of Kyle Porter starting the week of Iowa State
I’m not expecting huge personnel changes this week as I think the Texas coaches will take a fairly conservative approach with their line-ups this week, in a huge game on the road. But if Texas loses and falls to 1-2, I do expect the staff to take a long look at some young players in the off week.
Kyle Porter gets a lot of praise for some of the more unheralded things he does as a back (particularly his blocking), but at some point Texas needs more actual production from Porter and he opened the door last week for Toneil Carter and Daniel Young to cut into his workload. If Texas struggles this week (or Porter struggles individually), a healthy dose of Carter and Young seems like a good call moving forward.
