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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Quinn Ewers is going to keep everyone guessing
It’s been only a few days since former Ohio State quarterback Quinn Ewers entered his name into the transfer portal, and it’s already been hard to keep up with all the rumors and speculation.
When the news first became public that Ewers was heading back onto the open market, my initial reaction, without having talked to anyone about the developing story, was that it looked really good for Texas. There had been rumblings behind the scenes a couple weeks ago that Texas A&M could also figure into the equation, but things took a turn when it came out that Ewers would be taking visits to Texas Tech on Sunday and TCU on Monday.
Some rapid-fire thoughts/notes …
1. Most of the buzz on Saturday was on Texas Tech, and there was what I’d call a pretty high level of confidence on the Texas Tech side that the Red Raiders would be able to win out, especially if new Tech head coach Joey McGuire was able to land Zach Kittley as his offensive coordinator. Kittley, like Ewers, would visit Texas Tech on Sunday and reports came out on Sunday evening that Kittley had accepted the OC job in Lubbock.
2. A lot of that Tech confidence seems to have fizzled and the playing ground feels like it’s leveled out some now that Ewers’ trip to Lubbock has come and gone. In checking around, there was a sense that Texas Tech wanted to get things wrapped up before Ewers left town. When that didn’t happen, it was certainly a positive development for the Longhorns’ chances.
3. A lot of factors will come into play in Ewers’ final decision, including the obvious ones of coaching and depth chart. NIL is also something I expect Ewers and his camp will value heavily. Call it unconfirmed info at this point, but the numbers I’ve heard thrown around from the Texas side are staggering. Unlike any I’ve heard elsewhere. I would expect Texas Tech is also making a strong NIL push but haven’t heard any rumors of numbers there.
4. The TCU visit is not one that can be ignored, obviously, but I’d be mildly surprised if the Horned Frogs were real threats to either Texas or Texas Tech. The information I’ve heard post-TCU visit is that the new staff there did a very good job, but it’s probably not going to be enough to win the race.
5. When news of Ewers’ transfer first broke, I communicated briefly with someone close to him who confirmed that Texas had already been in touch. I circled back to that same source last night to ask if a visit to Austin was in the plans before Ewers decides, but haven’t heard a response yet. Obviously, getting Ewers on campus for a visit would be a huge step for Texas, but my guess is that it’s not entirely necessary. Unless he’s just dying to see the new facility upgrades, Ewers is familiar enough with the Texas program, facilities and staff that he should be able to make the move to UT without taking a visit, if that’s what he decides he wants to do.
6. That same source mentioned above confirmed my suspicion that Ewers and his camp would love for this process to move quickly so that he could potentially help with that school’s recruiting efforts leading up to next week’s early signing period. If bringing in other talent with him is important, that would seem to favor Texas over Texas Tech. The Longhorns are at or near the top with a handful of high-profile recruitments and logic would seem to indicate that players (both skill players and OL) would be more inclined to play with Ewers in Austin than in Lubbock.
7. Could any other programs jump into the mix? It’s not out of the question, but time seems to be running short. I’d heard USC’s name mentioned on Friday night when the news first broke because of Ewers’ confidence in Lincoln Riley, but if Ewers’ desire is to stay closer to his home base of Southlake, that would surprise me.
8. Depending on who you talk to, there seems to be what I’d call cautious optimism on both the Texas and Texas Tech sides. My gut tells me Ewers and his family have a plan and he knows how it will end, but I don’t believe any school has been given any assurances yet. Could some of that be his way of leveraging one school over the other? That has been suggested as well, but it’s mostly based on speculation.
9. I’ve heard from a couple people that Patrick Mahomes has been involved in this one behind the scenes and Texas Tech has done a good job of showcasing Mahomes’ success. It’s not a deciding factor, but not a small factor either.
10. Last, but not least, don’t discount the fact that Texas Tech does not have a quarterback committed in the 2022 class, whereas Texas has Maalik Murphy already in the fold. The path to playing time at Texas isn’t exactly similar to what Ewers saw at Ohio State, but Tech would offer a pretty clear avenue for Ewers to be the top guy as soon as he steps on campus. That could wind up playing a key role in his final decision.
2. Things could be falling into place for Texas with Kelvin Banks
With Mario Cristobal packing his bags to head from Oregon to Miami, that may have been just the push Texas needed in its continued pursuit of five-star offensive lineman Kelvin Banks. There was confidence in Austin coming out of Banks’ official visit in mid-November, and since then, things have continued to fall in line for the Longhorns. I was told through the grapevine that Texas made a strong presentation last week during an in-home visit, stressing to Banks his ability to cash in on NIL opportunities. On Monday, the Horns with Heart NIL program was officially launched, which would be a tremendous starting point for Banks to monetize his talents in Austin.
As I write this, I’d be surprised to see Banks sign with Oregon (note: Banks decommitted from Oregon as this story was posted). Most have thought if it wasn’t Oregon, it would be either Texas or Texas A&M. That’s not what I’m hearing. Word I’ve picked up is that it could come down to Texas and LSU, although Alabama has been trying to get involved as well. In fact, I’m expecting Nick Saban to be by for an in-person visit in the next 24 hours or so.
Banks stays pretty quiet so it’s hard to get a clear read on what he’s thinking – and his head is probably swimming right now as he tries to process everything that’s happening – but if I was a betting man, I’d put my money on Texas as it stands right now, slightly ahead of LSU.
3. Maalik Murphy will play for a state title on Saturday afternoon
Don’t look now, but Maalik Murphy and his Gardena (CA) Serra teammates continue to pick up wins, taking down Long Beach Poly last week in a 21-17, come-from-behind victory.
Murphy completed 13-of-24 attempts in the game in throwing for 280 yards and three touchdowns, including a 75-yard game-winner with only a few minutes left in the game. In two games against Poly this year, Murphy has thrown for 621 yards and 6 TDs against just 1 interception. Serra advances to the state final, where it will take on Liberty on Saturday afternoon.
On the season, Murphy is hitting on 64 percent of his throws. He’s passed for 2,780 yards and 21 scores despite missing action early in the season with a clavicle injury.
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TWO QUESTIONS
1. How would I rank the probability of the remaining offensive line targets committing to Texas?
I get asked this question quite a bit, or some variation of “which OL guys is Texas going to land?” Things change in a hurry, like they did this week with Mario Cristobal’s departure from Oregon, but as it stands right now I’d put Texas’ chances, from best to worst, as follows …
1. Devon Campbell – It’s felt like he was Texas’ best shot all along, and I’ll stick with that, although the gap between him and the others is tightening.
2. Kelvin Banks – Lots of moving parts in this one, but I think he stays close to home, which favors Texas over LSU and Bama. Today’s NIL news doesn’t hurt either.
3. Malik Agbo – Oklahoma is pretty much out of it. Miami’s probably too far behind, even with the hire of Cristobal. That leaves Texas and Auburn, and I favor Texas in this race.
4. Neto Umeozulu – Neto’s a complete wildcard. I’m not sure what to expect with him, but something tells me Texas is in a better shape than most realize, particularly with Umeozulu wanting to study business.
5. Cameron Williams – It’s a bit too early to say how the shake-up at Oregon has impacted things, but you have to think Williams will be exploring his options. Texas finished second in the race initially, so the Longhorns should have a good shot here.
6. Kam Dewberry – Maybe he gets caught up in the momentum if Texas lands one or two others from this list? If not, A&M seems most likely.
7. Earnest Greene – There just seems to be too much competition for Texas in this one.
2. What to make of Texas’ chances with some of the staff’s remaining out-of-state targets?
We’re a little more than a week away from the start of NSD1, so we’ll throw out some quick-hitters on the Longhorns’ top out-of-state targets.
WR Shazz Preston – He’ll be at Alabama this weekend for an OV, so that’s definitely worth watching. LSU is still a major threat despite the coaching shake-up.
TE Arlis Boardingham – He told me over the weekend that he has no plans for an in-home visit with the UT staff. You can pretty much close the book on this one.
OL Malik Agbo – I mentioned him above, but I like Texas’ chances in what looks to be a close finish.
OL Earnest Greene – A top four of Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Texas is going to be tough for UT to overcome.
CB Rodney Johnson – I honestly haven’t heard much about (or from) Johnson since Texas offered despite me reaching out multiple times.
S Jacoby Mathews – Texas doesn’t seem likely. The guess here is that he stays in-state and goes to LSU.
S Larry Turner-Gooden – If USC decided to push here, he’ll likely stay in state. If not, it probably comes down to Texas and Colorado. He’s visited Texas twice this fall, including once on his own dime, which could be a sign.
ATH Kendrick Law – He took an official visit to UT over the weekend but is always the case, Law has been quiet. We’ve heard for weeks it would be either Texas or Bama, but look for LSU to be involved as well.
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ONE PREDICTION – Texas will land at least two of its top remaining O-line targets, maybe more
It wasn’t too long that Steve Sarkisian mentioned that the Longhorns would like to land five offensive linemen in this class, at least. It seemed a bit far-fetched at the time, but I’m bullish on the Longhorns’ chances with a handful of their remaining targets. I don’t expect a clean sweep of the five-stars or anything like that, but I expect the staff to be able to close with at least a couple of the linemen who have been discussed in this column, and two might be me being conservative.
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