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The Future Of Twitter

Rudygamble

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Dec 15, 2020
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Some background:
  • I've been on Twitter for 15 years
  • It has been the only social media platform I genuinely liked. Hell, I hate the other social media platforms (Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc).
  • I used Twitter both for personal and business stuff as I have a side biz in fantasy sports (https://x.com/rudygamble)
  • I have a solid following there - mainly b/c of the side business (12K followers)
  • I prefer using DMs for industry-related communications instead of e-mail and texting
  • I prefer using a Twitter-like feed for breaking news than Google News or going to a news site
  • I'm well aware that Twitter was never really profitable. Advertising had never worked on it as well as other platforms like Google and Facebook.
  • BUT the user base was hyper-loyal b/c there really were no alternatives to get the volume of focused content they wanted that was tailored to their interests / politics.
  • I lean left politically
My prognostication for Twitter's future is that it's in the beginning of an irreversible downward spiral.

When we look back at the decline of Twitter, people are going to ascribe it to user (and advertiser) politics, hate speech, wokeness, etc.

That's partly true but the primary reason may well be Elon f***ing with referrals + feed algorithm
  • There were two drivers that content providers (journalists & site owners) could justify providing free content on Twitter: 1) it drove traffic and 2) you could build your personal brand. Both these drivers could be easily measured through click referrals/likes/retweets. That engagement drives ego/satisfaction.
  • Elon and team didn't create the Twitter feed algorithm (which replaces the chronological feed that people generally prefer with one that orders based on perceived relevance). But it seems like they fiddled with it enough that it tanked engagement metrics for all but a sliver of content providers. Putting a thumb on the scale for people who bought checkmarks didn't help.
The secondary reason: Elon went hyper-partisan
  • Twitter, at it's best, was politically neutral.
  • Moderating/policing tweets in this day and age makes it impossible to be perceived as politically neutral.
  • Elon's promise of 'free speech' / non-censorship / non-partisanship when he first bought Twitter seemed like a good strategy to alienate the fewest.
  • Instead, he provided full-throated support to a Presidential candidate (and acted more like an Internet troll vs a journalist in stating his positions) - alienating at least 50% of Twitter content providers and audience.
With the dopamine-inducing engagement metrics (and comment volume) waning AND Elon's partisan politics / polarizing personality, I am already seeing what had been an INSANELY Twitter-centric (and admittedly left-leaning) fantasy sports community migrating in numbers to Bluesky.

Twitter isn't going away but it's going to bleed audience/engagement for the foreseeable future.

Just my two cents.
 
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