Normally elections have a nominal impact on the markets. If anything, the equity markets have reacted favorably to republican wins. That won't happen this year.
Several studies have shown a 10% swing in the S&P 500 based on the results Tuesday. Based on the markets reaction to swings in the polls, it definitely appears the market fears a Trump presidency. One study estimates there will be a 3% positive swing in the S&P if Hillary wins and a 7% negative swing if Trump wins.
Likewise the fixed income markets. Rates would fall with a Trump win and rise with a Clinton win.
Gold would rally under Trump, fall under Clinton.
If Trump wins oil will fall, but so will the dollar.
The reaction will be more severe if Trump wins as the markets are viewing Clinton the probable victor.
Has anyone traded based on the election, or will you Monday or Tuesday?
Several studies have shown a 10% swing in the S&P 500 based on the results Tuesday. Based on the markets reaction to swings in the polls, it definitely appears the market fears a Trump presidency. One study estimates there will be a 3% positive swing in the S&P if Hillary wins and a 7% negative swing if Trump wins.
Likewise the fixed income markets. Rates would fall with a Trump win and rise with a Clinton win.
Gold would rally under Trump, fall under Clinton.
If Trump wins oil will fall, but so will the dollar.
The reaction will be more severe if Trump wins as the markets are viewing Clinton the probable victor.
Has anyone traded based on the election, or will you Monday or Tuesday?
