Photo via AP
Let us try this again.
Every Longhorn observer made predictions last year. Some forecasts were for 8-wins or less. Others went for it all and believed Texas would compete for the Big 12 championship. A very small percentage of observers thought Texas might be in the national title conversation last year. It was easy to have high expectations entering last season. Tom Herman hit the ground running in year one as an offensive coordinator at Ohio State and head coach at Houston. There was no reason to believe it was going to be a rebuilding year. All signs pointed toward Texas returning to its glory in 2017. Obviously, it did not happen. However, Herman’s team won the Texas Bowl against Missouri. In addition, the annual high expectations at Texas are back.
We are less than two weeks away from the season opener, and there are many reasons to believe this may finally be a breakthrough year for Texas’ football program.
It appears coaches and players are on the same page entering this season. Todd Orlando is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger should be a better quarterback entering year two. The additions of grad transfers Tre Watson (running back) and Calvin Anderson (left tackle) might solidify this offense. I have heard nothing but good things about the addition of offensive line coach Herb Hand. There might be a consistent kicker on campus. West Virginia’s Will Grier is the Big 12’s only proven quarterback entering this season. Longhorn fans should have lofty expectations with Maryland right around the corner.
However, I am going to take a much safer approach.
Preseason Predictions
Texas' record in 2018: 8-4
This is not the bold prediction that makes you want to start drinking early. Well, I guess you could technically drink out of frustration. I know some of you might look at eight wins as the floor. Yes, Texas was in every game last season with a bad offense, and if those late turnovers against USC, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech did not occur, this could have been a 10-win team. Just remember if you play that game, factor in what could have been if Grier’s finger was not dislocated last year, what happens if Chris Warren III does not recover Lil Jordan Humphrey’s fumble with less than three minutes remaining against Kansas State, or defeating an Iowa State team that had not figured out its quarterback situation. The “what if?” game definitely works both ways.
If this offense takes a simple step from “below average” to “good,” Texas has a great chance to surpass eight wins. There are many reasons to believe Texas could win between nine and 10 games. I just cannot continue to assume this team will take the next step without seeing a better offense in the season opener against Maryland.
Right now, I am predicting losses against USC, TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State. USC is the Pac-12 South favorite in this year’s preseason media poll, TCU has a four-game win streak against Texas, every game at Kansas State is tough, and Iowa State is going to be solid this season.
Nevertheless, if Texas wins its bowl game, a nine-win season after the past four years is a step in the right direction.
Big 12 standings
1. West Virginia (10-2, 7-2) – Not the most complete team, but with a ton of transfers and Grier, this is the squad to beat.
2. TCU (9-3, 6-3) – This team is expected to have an explosive offense. I will not bet against Gary Patterson
3. Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3) – A predictable drop off after Baker Mayfield, but RB Rodney Anderson takes pressure off Kyler Murray.
4. Texas (8-4, 6-3) – Longhorns could finish higher with a more productive offense.
5. Iowa State (7-5, 5-4) – Running back David Montgomery will be a hot name toward the end of this season
6. Oklahoma State (7-5, 5-4) – Hard to replace quarterback Mason Rudolph and receiver James Washington.
7. Kansas State (6-6, 4-5) – Bill Snyder does not have a quarterback I believe in.
8. Texas Tech (5-7, 3-6) – Ironically, Kliff Kingsbury might get fired because of his offense.
9. Baylor (4-8, 2-7) – Outside of quarterback Charlie Brewer, this team is still rebuilding.
10. Kansas (2-10, 0-9) – David Beaty is under contract until 2021 and will earn $1.8 million this year. I cannot see Kansas eating that contract for football.
Photo via DallasNews.com
More preseason predictions:
Texas will appear in this bowl game: Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 Champion: West Virginia
Worst team in the Big 12: Kansas
Texas offensive MVP: Tre Watson, RB
Texas defensive MVP: Kris Boyd, DB
Texas special teams MVP: Ryan Bujcevski, P
Texas Freshman of the Year: Caden Sterns, S
Texas RB with most rushing yards: Watson (815 yards and six touchdowns)
Texas leader in TD receptions: Lil’ Jordan Humphrey (five)
Texas leader in sacks: Breckyn Hager (eight)
Texas leader in interceptions: Davante Davis (four)
Texas leader in tackles: Gary Johnson (115)
Longest FG made: 47
# of passing yards/TDs by Sam Ehlinger: (2,850/21)
# of times fans ask about Shane Buechele transferring: 158
# of times the OB staff engages in a Twitter war: 2
Texas scores most points against: Tulsa
Texas scores fewest points against: TCU
Texas allows most points against: West Virginia
Texas allows fewest points against: Tulsa
# of team sacks allowed: 25
First loss by Texas in 2018: USC
Nobody will see this coming: Texas defeats Oklahoma by two touchdowns this season
Photo via HookEm.com
(My 2017 predictions might make you laugh harder than the videos.)
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
The old man ended this kid’s athletic aspirations
When max day at the gym goes wrong (Warning: Bad language in this one)
Somebody did not use enough hair pins
Sports On A Dime
1. If you had to buy stock in one player in hopes of a big return, running Tre Watson might be the best investment. I have heard nothing but good things about Watson since he participated in contact drills on Tuesday. Watson is trending toward starting against Maryland in the season opener, and could be an impact player on offense this year.
2. Texas lost cornerback John Bonney this past week, and reportedly will lose receiver Davion Curtis. However, here is a fact that gets overlooked in those headlines. So far, Herman has not lost any players he has signed the past two years. Herman and his staff have done a great job of recruiting players who want to play for them.
3. It looks like Jake Smith is ready to join the Longhorns right now.
4. Here is your morning dose of burnt orange Kool-Aid to offset my eight-win prediction. Enjoy
5. Saturday had to be a great day for Longhorn football players. Great move by Herman to surprise his players by bringing their family members to practice. Nobody can accurately say Herman has not tried to connect with his players this offseason.
6. Chris Warren III is going to make Oakland’s 53-man roster, which is amazing considering he could not get touches last year. Warren has looked too good in the preseason for Oakland to risk putting him on waivers and hoping it can stash him on a practice squad. As the past president of Warren’s fan club, I finally have a small measure of vindication - and still a bunch of his t-shirts taking up space in my garage (obviously, joking about the t-shirts).
7. It is never too early for Texas volleyball
8. The safe bet is Ohio State football coach Urban Meyer serving a two-game suspension – at most – before being fully reinstated. At this point, Zach and Courtney’s kids are probably hurting more than anybody associated with Ohio State. These kids are forced to hear the dirty details of their parents’ lives through social media. I seriously doubt hearing about their dad’s sexual addictions this past week made them want to wake up early for school the next morning. At this point, I just want Ohio State to make a decision so everybody can move on.
9. If this kind of tackling is now an NFL penalty, it is going to be a rough year:
10. Well, as long as Deontay Wilder faces an opponent who is not scared of him (yes, I am talking to you, Anthony Joshua), count me in. However, Fury may want to consider getting in shape before he faces Wilder.
Happy Hour
If you are in the Austin area on Friday, swing by Maggiores in Cedar Park (1420 Cypress Creek Road #1000) for a preseason kickoff happy hour. I will be there from 4 to 7 p.m.
Bring your family, friends and a good sense of humor. I will do my best to convince other mods to attend. At worst, you are stuck with me for a few hours.
http://www.magstexas.com/
