Photo via AP
Texas football coach Tom Herman is right when he says this team has shown a lot of progress. There is no debating this team is more competitive than the squads we have seen the past three seasons. Yes, Texas had a shot to win every game this season. These players do not give up. They are playing with a lot of effort, toughness, tenacity, and the buy-in is there. There is no doubting those achievements.
Those moral victories are nice, but sitting at 3-4 is not what any Longhorn observer envisioned prior to this season. The majority of fans predicted nothing less than an eight-win season. Some believed Herman could make this into a nine or 10-win program in year one. Others were convinced Texas would be in the Big 12 championship game this season. The word “rebuild” was not supposed to be uttered this year. Not with a talented roster full of upperclassmen. No, the cake was not baked, but nobody expected Herman to start from scratch.
However, when Herman said he wanted to get these seniors to a bowl game after a disappointing 13-10 overtime loss against Oklahoma State on Saturday, a few realities kicked in. First, that is the same line Charlie Strong uttered the past three years as his teams never finished above .500. It is a subtle way of taking whatever consolation prize is available during a disappointing year. Second, it means Texas needs to beat Baylor, Kansas and Texas Tech to finish with six wins. Heck, the only real gimmes are Baylor and Kansas because Texas Tech may give up a lot of points, but that team scores a lot, too. Right now, it appears Texas is on a path to the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on December 28, but that is not etched in stone.
So far, Herman’s first season at Texas has been a disappointment.
Heck, next year could be a lot better. The third season might be great. Texas fans may look back on this season one day and talk about the growing pains of 2017 and how it built the foundation for a program that competes for conference championships every year. Herman may live up to the expectations Longhorn fans had when he was hired. I am definitely not saying Herman will never get the job done, or insinuating he is unqualified for the job. I think he will eventually win at Texas.
However, for every person who says this team could easily be 6-1, just know the Longhorns could also be 1-6. It took two overtimes to defeat Kansas State, and this team squeaked out a win against Iowa State. Former NFL coach Bill Parcells once said, “you are what your record says you are.” Texas is a 3-4 program that will probably finish with six regular-season wins, with the possibility of a seventh victory in a bowl game.
Of course, that is assuming Malik Jefferson and Connor Williams are willing to risk getting injured in the postseason. If either one decides to leave school after this season, I would not blame them for focusing on making millions in the NFL and not risk getting injured (would be the second setback for Williams). The postseason narrative will be about extra practices for young players, building for next season, and recording the first bowl victory since the 2012 season. You have heard it before.
In hindsight, Herman may have been too confident in the offseason. He compared this offensive line to the one he had during an undefeated season at Ohio State, but this unit struggled prior to Williams’ injury. Herman said these receivers were the most talented group he ever coached, but Collin Johnson was stripped of his starting position, while Armanti Foreman remains missing in action. He was confident this squad could be a downhill running team. He talked about competing for a Big 12 title. The burnt orange Kool-Aid was flowing throughout the offseason.
Then Maryland happened. Herman admittedly did not see that coming. Suddenly, this team needed more work than he anticipated.
Well, the offense needs more work.
Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando has done one hell of a job.
Photo via TexasSports.com
To be fair, Herman said Texas would win games with defense this season. Ironically, that was probably the one thing he said this offseason most Longhorn observers did not believe. If you told any Longhorn fan this defense would hold its own against USC’s Sam Darnold, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph prior to this season, they would have been skeptical. Heck, this defense once struggled to stop Baylor two years ago when the team lost its quarterbacks and was in obvious run plays. Some believed Jefferson was a JAG. It was hard to imagine Orlando's unit would be a team strength, but it sure as hell is right now.
Nevertheless, the weakness continues to be this offense. Last week, I said if Herman and his offensive staff cannot turn things around, this team will be competitive, but struggle to win games for the rest of the year. Nothing has changed, and that is a problem.
It is pretty clear Texas offensive coordinator Tim Beck views running the ball like eating peas at dinner – you consume a few out of necessity, but everyone would rather have steak and potatoes.
Beck wants to pass the ball. He does not have the patience of Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, who handed the ball to Justice Hill 33 times on Saturday. Hill did not have a monster game. He finished with 127 yards and a 3.5 yards per carry average, but Oklahoma State never backed away from its offensive identity. In addition, J.D. King had 11 carries for 43 yards (3.9 average).
In the fourth quarter, Kris Boyd returned a kickoff to Texas’ 39-yard line. On the first play, Warren gained 15 yards. After that success, Beck called three straight passing plays. Each one was incomplete. Texas was forced to punt.
Beck did not use his running backs in overtime. Herman has said Toneil Carter and Daniel Young need more touches. Carter finished with one carry, while Young had zero.
Rotating a bunch of receivers sounds nice on paper, but there is something to be said for figuring out the top guys and forcing teams to beat them. It at least allows receivers to pick up the tendencies of defensive backs and eventually exploit their opponent. Instead, there are different receivers playing with different running backs throughout the game, and it is hard for players to develop a rhythm. Imagine what this defense would like if Jefferson was not on the field for nearly every play.
Speaking of seeing the field, Foreman has to play.
You can debate if Foreman's dad should voice his frustrations on Twitter, but there is no denying Armanti could have an impact. Unless he is serving a secret suspension, it is insulting to have the young man stand on the sidelines with no explanation of his lack of participation. If the staff does not want Foreman at Texas, kick him off the team and move on. Without an explanation, or a traditional leak to the media that enlightens everyone, it looks like a personal vendetta against the young man. That is not the look Herman should want.
By the way, Texas freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger has been a superhero this season, but also inconsistent. Ehlinger took a horrible sack in the second quarter by holding onto the ball for too long, which resulted in a fumble and 34-yard loss. He missed a wide-open Devin Duvernay that would have resulted in an easy touchdown. His interception in overtime is inexcusable.
To be fair, Ehlinger has been asked to carry this offense since taking over as a starter. He makes mistakes because he is asked to do too much. Beck did incorporate shorter passes for Ehlinger on Saturday, but the freshman needs more of them. Trying to run the ball more consistently would help, too. Seeing the same group of receivers and developing a rhythm with them probably would not hurt.
Maybe Texas wins the next five games, and the conversation is totally different after Texas Tech. This team has been in every game this season, and I expect Texas to be in the mix against TCU and West Virginia because of Orlando’s defense. Herman would be able to look at these close losses as building blocks to a successful season. Suddenly, eight wins would be viewed as one hell of an achievement for this team.
There is no denying there has been progress. Players are not quitting. The buy-in is there. This team has been in every game this season.
Texas is 3-4 and needs to beat Baylor, Kansas and Texas Tech to secure six wins, and hope for some luck against TCU and West Virginia.
So far, Herman’s first season at Texas has been a disappointment.
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
(These videos are always funnier after a win)
Everybody knows you only attempt the Kid 'n Play move on the carpet
I love this little girl
This kid must know dad will not cook when mom is gone
Sports On A Dime
1. One of Herman’s best offseason moves was to make sure Orlando earned $1 million a year. It means Orlando will not leave Texas for the first offer he receives, specifically a head coaching position at a small school, but will hold out for something big. I believe Orlando is destined to be a head coach no later than the end of next season. He proved his success at Houston was not a fluke, and Orlando has the respect of his current players. It is just a matter of time.
2. Texas linebacker Breckyn Hager was an absolute baller against Oklahoma State. Hager finished with two sacks, two tackles for loss, three tackles and a quarterback hurry. Hager took advantage of his playing time.
3. When the staff talked about the incredible plays of Poona Ford in the offseason, I was not sure what that hype was all about. Man, I was wrong. Ford has been one hell of a player this season. Ketch said Ford’s forced fumble may have been the biggest play this season. Time will tell, but this is undeniably his best season at Texas.
4. Michael Dickson is going to have a long NFL career. No, I do not think he is skipping his senior season for the NFL. Dickson does not have to worry about sustaining a career-ending injury as a punter, which mean he will probably be back next year. He averaged 50.9 yards a punt (11 attempts), including a 66-yarder, against Oklahoma State. Dickson pinned OSU inside the 20-yard line five times. The Ray Guy Award is his. Here is what Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said about Dickson: “Then we couldn't convert short yardage, couldn't kick field goals, weren't very good at kickoff, and their punter is — did he win the Ray Guy Award last year? Yeah, he should have won it. He changed the field on us. I don't know what the yardage is, I just know that every time we got a little bit of field position, he changed the field. When they punted and didn't have it, he downed it inside the 10. He was fantastic for them.”
5. Texas cornerback Kris Boyd arguably played the best game of his career on Saturday. He finished with 13 tackles and two pass breakups.
6. Malik Jefferson received a bogus late hit penalty against Oklahoma State. However, nobody viewed Jefferson as a tough guy prior to this season. Herman previously said Jefferson is playing with bad intentions, and there is no denying the young man is finishing plays. Imagine how good Jefferson would be right now if Orlando coached him the past three years.
7. Speaking of refs, this officiating in the Big 12 continues to underwhelm me.
8. The University of South Florida is undefeated, and if you are looking for a good rumor, here you go. There is a belief by some folks in the college coaching circle that SMU coach Chad Morris will leave after this season and be replaced by former USF offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert, who was on Charlie Strong’s staff at Texas. Again, it is a rumor, but probably fun speculation for those who care about SMU.
9. This hit will make you cringe:
10. Props to Houston
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