Photo via AP Photo
Texas football fans gave their 7-6 record last season a polite golf clap.
Longhorn observers expected coach Tom Herman to turn around this program in year one. Herman was Urban Meyer's offensive coordinator in year one when Ohio State finished 12-0 in 2012. During Herman’s first season at Houston, he led the Cougars to a 13-1 record after the team finished 8-5 the previous year. Herman was expected to work that same first-year magic at Texas. In fact, Herman appeared very confident it could happen prior to last season.
Instead, Maryland happened. Then turnovers and defensive breakdowns against USC. Offensive struggles against Oklahoma State. Whenever the team took a step forward, like beating West Virginia, it took a step backwards, such as a surprising home loss against Texas Tech. Injuries affected Herman’s team last season, but there were other issues, such as a lack of execution, inconsistent quarterback performance, players were not unified, and offensive coordinator Tim Beck’s play-calling was questioned. Ironically, the head coach who was criticized for being too harsh on his guys was eventually bashed for praising his offensive line and receivers too much prior to the season. Longhorn fans were disappointed by last season’s record, but it is important to know one thing.
If Herman has Texas in contention for a conference championship this season, that feat would top some of the greatest turnarounds by legendary coaches.
Let us start with the low-hanging fruit.
Most people love to point out Nick Saban’s 7-6 record during his first season at Alabama in 2007. Nearly every college fan knows Saban led Alabama to a 12-2 record the following year. Since that seven-win season, Alabama has won 10-or-more games for the past 10 years. Saban has won four national championships at Alabama. Basically, Saban is the poster boy for the great things that can happen to a program in year two.
In addition to Saban, there are a few other coaches who have excelled in their second season.
- Former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel was 7-5 in 2001 and finished 14-0 the following year.
- Former Georgia coach Mark Richt was 8-4 in 2001 and finished 13-1 the following year.
- Former USC coach Pete Carrol was 6-6 in 2001 and finished 11-2 the following year.
- Former Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops was 7-5 in 1999 and finished 13-0 the following year.
- Former Florida coach Urban Meyer was 9-3 in 2006 and finished 13-1 the following year.
- Georgia coach Kirky Smart was 8-5 in 2017 and finished 13-2 last season.
On paper, it is easy to look at those coaches and say Herman should have Texas competing for a Big 12 championship this season (Meyer might be the exception). It is easy to argue that Herman does not need to be the second coming of Saban, but if he can duplicate Tressel or Richt’s success, the Longhorns could take off. Heck, Herman might read those numbers and be very encouraged before training camp begins in early August.
However, if you dig deeper, Herman inherited a program in worse shape than the majority of coaches I mentioned.
In fact, only one of the coaches I mentioned had it worse than Herman.
Photo via Getty Images
Instead of just looking at the jumps those football programs made in year two, I thought it was important to examine the three seasons prior to the coach stepping on campus for a fair comparison. Without turning this into a “Train A leaves the station traveling 60 miles at 30 miles per hour” math problem, let me simplify the numbers for you.
Texas was 16-21 during Charlie Strong's three-year tenure. The only coach who inherited a program with a worse three-year stretch prior to being hired was Bob Stoops. Oklahoma was 12-22 during the three years before hiring Stoops. Outside of Stoops, five of the seven coaches I highlighted took over teams that had won at least 22 combined games over a three-year period.
Before Kirby Smart
Georgia (coach)
10-3 in 2015 (Bryan McClendon/Mark Richt)
10-3 in 2014 (Mark Richt)
8-5 in 2013 (Mark Richt)
Record: 28-11
Before Jim Tressel
Ohio State (former coach John Cooper)
8-4 in 2000
6-6 in 1999
11-1 in 1998
Record 25-11
Before Mark Richt
Georgia (former coach Jim Donnan)
8-4 in 2000
8-4 in 1999
9-3 in 1998
Record: 25-11
Before Urban Meyer
Florida (coach)
7-5 in 2004 (Ron Zook/Charlie Strong)
8-5 in 2003 (Ron Zook)
8-5 in 2002 (Ron Zook)
Record: 23-15
Before Nick Saban
Alabama (coach)
6-7 in 2006 (Mike Shula/Joe Kines)
10-2 in 2005 (Mike Shula)
6-6 in 2004 (Mike Shula)
Record: 22-15
Before Pete Carroll
USC (former coach Paul Hackett)
5-7 in 2000
6-6 in 1999
8-5 in 1998
Record: 19-18
Before Bob Stoops
Oklahoma (former coach John Blake)
5-6 in 1998
4-8 in 1997
3-8 in 1996
Record 12-22
When Herman talked about rebuilding the program last season, it was easy to be skeptical. Most Longhorn observers believed Texas would win at least eight games in Herman’s first year. Some dreamed a lot bigger. Finishing the regular season with a 6-6 record was disappointing. The bowl victory definitely helped fan morale, and that win could end up being the turning point in the new era under Herman.
Nevertheless, it is important to know Herman, based on a win-loss history, inherited more of a mess than most coaches who turned around their programs in year two.
All of that talk about teaching players how to win and changing the culture are not weak attempts to kick the can down the road.
Those are facts.
Herman has been cautious with his words this offseason. He is doing his best not to raise the hopes of his fan base again. Herman’s main focus is getting his team prepared for the regular season, improving relationships with his players, and avoiding last year’s disappointments.
However, Herman’s stated goal is to compete for championships at Texas – national and conference. That has not changed, and it will be interesting to see how Herman's team performs this season.
Just know if Herman has Texas in contention for a conference championship this season, it will be a momentous achievement for a coach who inherited a mess.
Photo via San Antonio Express-News
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
These kids will leave you in stitches
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I love this dog
Pretty sure this is @drunk randoke everyday
Sports On A Dime
1. Here is a really good feature by ESPN’s Trevor Matich to get Longhorn fans pumped about the upcoming season:
2. Get it, Sam
3. Texas linebacker Breckyn Hager was the biggest hit of Big 12 Media Days. I spoke to multiple national writers who were in awe of Hager’s intelligence, philosophies, wittiness, and the athlete’s engaging personality. Each Texas players represented the university well in Frisco this past week, but Hager stole the show.
4. Herman seems content to wait until the Monday before Texas' season opener against Maryland to name a starting quarterback. However, I would not be surprised if Herman does not officially name a starter at all to keep Maryland guessing. Herman has made it clear on numerous occasions he does not like giving opponents a competitive advantage, which is why it would not surprise me if he never makes an announcement. Obviously, there is a good chance we will know who is receiving first-team reps during training camp, but it may not come from Herman’s mouth.
5. While we are on the subject of quarterbacks, Sam Ehlinger’s fate will be decided during the scrimmages prior to this season. Herman told me his scrimmages are intense enough to show if Ehlinger has solved last year’s turnover issues. I believe if Ehlinger can avoid fumbles and interceptions during those scrimmages, he will start in the season opener against Maryland. If not, Herman will have to play it safe and go with Shane Buechele.
6. One subject Herman avoided discussing during breakout interviews in Frisco were the injuries that plagued his team last year. Herman was even asked if the new redshirt rule could have helped him last season because of those injuries, and outside of acknowledging the obvious, he never touched the subject. Some Texas observers believe Herman used injuries as an excuse for last year’s struggles. Others viewed injuries as a legit issue. Regardless, Herman is no longer interested in the subject.
7. The last time Texas had a 1,000-yard receiver was John Harris in 2014 (1,051 yards). Tyrone Swoopes was his quarterback that year. It is up to Collin Johnson, who was recently added to the Biletnikoff Award watch list, or Lil’ Jordan Humphrey, to break that streak this season. If both players eclipse that mark, or are close, Texas is probably competing for the Big 12 Championship.
8. If you have ever listened to an Orangebloods podcast, I have an incredible amount of respect for Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy for his ability to turn a group of three-star recruits into standout football players. I asked Gundy what is his secret to finding talent during Big 12 Media Days, and he told me, “Each position coach has to find those guys. In most cases, if there is a five-star player that’s within a regional area of Oklahoma State for the 2019 and 2020 class, he’s already been offered by us. Have we been able to secure them? Not many, but most of them have been offered by us. So, we have to take a business approach in the fact that at the end of the recruiting season, if we’re signing 23, we have to have at least 20. We can keep a couple, or pick up a transfer, but we can’t sign 12 kids. We have to do a good job of [establishing] a pecking order, and then we have to have reasons why. If you hit a home run in a certain area, then you can be a little more risky in that same area. If you’re struggling in another position, you may not be as risky in who you’re recruiting there because you better start filling some slots. Then, it’s just a little bit of give and take. If I get a little bit of skill and talent, do I take it on heart? If I get a little size, do I take it on whatever else they can bring to the table? There’s a pretty complex formula. Like, Kasey Dunn [receivers coach]. He gets either 11 or 12 scholarships. Well, he has to place those 11 or 12 guys where he thinks it’s going to help us best score points, and move the ball. If we lose one, he’s going to fill somebody else in that spot that fits what we’re doing at that particular spot, not just the big picture. That’s where we, in my opinion, do a pretty good job. We’re not just going to take a bunch of guys, the best guys on the board. We’re going to take the guys we think fit our place so we can slot them in.”
9. I asked TCU football coach Gary Patterson the same question, and he may have delivered the longest answer in the history of Big 12 Media Days. Here is the condensed version of Patterson’s response: “Number one, that rating is your rating. That's not my rating. If I'm bringing them in, I think they're a pretty good player, so they may be a four-star or five-star, obviously, we're getting more of those guys. I have always believed that it's not where you start, but where you finish. So, you recruit whoever you want to recruit. You recruit who fits your program. Doesn't do you any good to have a good athlete [who] fits a square peg fitting into a round hole. The guy has to fit that position, or he needs to be good enough that you will create a new position within your defense and offense, so he can be successful and he will make you better. I think that's one of the things we've always done. We know what we're looking for. We trust the high school coaches in the state of Texas and Louisiana and surrounding states to tell us about the young man. Does he fit what we do and how we do it? There is no science. We've made mistakes, guys that have not turned out the way we need them to be. But as a general rule, kids come in knowing that you're going to work hard and we want you because of class sizes, we want you to get a degree, not just talk about it.”
10. ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio recently pointed out that Johnny Manziel has not played in the CFL this season. Florio wrote this:
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats entered an early-season bye week with a quarterback who had tied a CFL record with nine straight 300-yard passing games. And Jeremiah Masoli’s performances had kept Johnny Manziel on the bench.
In the team’s latest game, Manziel once again didn’t play.
But maybe that could change. Masoli threw for only 184 yards against the Saskatechewan Roughriders, with no touchdown passes and an interception. Hamilton lost, 31-20.
This is probably a good thing for Manziel because it should keep him focused on football and out of the spotlight. In addition, it might keep him hungry for an opportunity. NFL teams want to know if Manziel has learned how to handle adversity, and this is a good test for him.
